Front Page: Randy Dobnak Is Better Than You Think

[jrod23]

Dobnak was thrusted through the minors last year to make his debut in The Show.  Deservedly so.  What bothers me is that because of his start vs. the Yanks in the playoffs, he gets a bad rap?  Seriously?  He was PHENOMENAL as a rookie.  Then to be on the Twins' largest stage since 2010?  Cut the kid some slack.  He's a gamer.  He's made it to the bigs in a very unconventional, yet deserving way.  If you think he's not worth a damn because of that one playoff start against the Bronx Bombers, you're ignorant as hell.

 

Great article.  Wow.

[DocBauer]

My question is quite simple. What has changed between now and when the Twins were really trying to minimize his use in August and Early September? 28 Innings? 

 

I am all for getting Dobnak a chance to show us that he is better than we think. I believe he might be better than we think. It's possible, I won't doubt the guy but we don't know and the front office doesn't know. 

 

However... it would be bad roster management and a pure dice roll to plan your 2020 opening day roster with Dobnak taking one of the spots after trying really really hard not to utilize him 28 innings ago. 

 

It's 2020... It's a pivotal year... Don't mess around. Sign or trade for some arms with a track record.  This is what contending teams do in the off-season. They don't mess around.

 

Agreed.

 

I like Dobnak's potential quite a bit. I think he has decent stuff, the right frame, decent velocity, etc. I think his rise last season should not be discounted. He appears determined, unflappable and has the sort of "it" intelligence factor. All good things! How good could he be? Let's check back in a season or two shall we.

 

I like this kid a lot. But I also like Thorpe an awful lot too. I think some people discount him because he isn't 21-22yo old. But he missed two full seasons and has been pushed pretty aggressively since his return. And he's done very well. While his ML numbers for 2019 don't look all that great, there were innings and moments when you could see the potential. I think he is a legitimate ML SP with a floor of quality RP who could be Rogers-like, potentially.

 

And in no way should we dismiss Smeltzer at this point. We saw flashes and potential of a bulldog, smart pitcher last season.

 

But let's be real. If he can be nurtured a bit and keep his IP under control, Graterol is a HIGH END talent who could potentially explode over the next year or two.

 

ALL of these guys have a chance to make real contributions in 2020 as the 5th SP, temp 4th SP while waiting for Pineda, and out of the pen. (There are a few others who could make their presence known before 2020 is over as well). And with experience, talent, coaching and the right opportunity, we will be able to approach 2021 with a couple of these guys penciled in to key roles.

 

But this is a HIGH quality team with real potential. I don't knkw who the FO is going to bring on board to add to the top of the rotation, or whether it will be via FA or trade. I fully believe in the smarts of our FO to bring in a quality arm to add to the mix...even if it isn't exactly who may have been hoped for. But regardless, when you look at some of the arms available, there are a number of guys out there who could be brought in on a 1yr or 1+1 deal that still offer up experience and potential where you deepen your options and potential.

 

As I stated elsewhere, there is and will be opportunity for these young guys. But get that one arm you really think can help, and then sign another whether you want to call it a flier or bounce back.

[Dantes929]

 

Fact:  Berrios, Dobnak, Odorizzi all lost games last postseason against the Yankees who now added Cole.

 

The Twins need much better if they want to be relevant and not go belly up again in the postseason

While the starters didn't shine, the defense was worse, the bullpen was worse and the offense was worse.    Berrios gave up one earned run.   Odorizzi but for bad defense would have given up one run and Dobnak wasn't on the field when the Yankees scored 3 of the 4 runs charged against them.     Starters didn't shine but they were the least of the problem this past post season and is being blamed for being all of it.     I still think that series would have been way different if Littell had done his job.    Maybe not.   Its baseball so its full of what ifs.

[Sam Morley]

Dobs is a reliever. You can tell by his goose gossage mustache and antoine carr oakleys.

 

Let the back-of-head hair flow long out the bottom of your cap, figure out your favorite Metallica/Megadeath song, heat up that straight-ball a few ticks, and go to your home.

[Thrylos]

 

.

But I do disagree with the root of your analysis. Berrios absolutely has room to grow and develop further. We have all seen the talent and potential.
 

 

Jose Berrios's 3 full MLB seasons:

 

 

2017: 3.89 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 1.229 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 2.9 K/BB
2018: 3.84 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 1.144 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 3.3 K/BB
2019: 3.68 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 1.233 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 3.8 K/BB

 

Maybe improvement but maybe regression.  If improvement, with that rate, it will take him 10 years to realize his potential.

 

Potential is different that results in the ballpark.  Maybe it is his training regiment and he needs to focus on recuperating and or pitching, instead of dragging tractor tires around. 

 

Could be between his ears.   I don't know what it is, but he is not progressing at the rate a top pitcher should be progressing...

[Mike Sixel]

 

Jose Berrios's 3 full MLB seasons:

 

 

2017: 3.89 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 1.229 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 2.9 K/BB
2018: 3.84 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 1.144 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 3.3 K/BB
2019: 3.68 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 1.233 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 3.8 K/BB

 

Maybe improvement but maybe regression.  If improvement, with that rate, it will take him 10 years to realize his potential.

 

Potential is different that results in the ballpark.  Maybe it is his training regiment and he needs to focus on recuperating and or pitching, instead of dragging tractor tires around. 

 

Could be between his ears.   I don't know what it is, but he is not progressing at the rate a top pitcher should be progressing...

 

Progress isn't linear. Berrios was a legit number 2 last year, I have no idea what you want/expect from him. With a tiny bit of improvement, he'd be one of the 10 best starters in baseball.

 

That said, those stats look pretty consistent, so we just might have to settle for 4.x fWAR a year from him, and him being one of the 20 or so best pitchers in the game......../s

[DocBauer]

Jose Berrios's 3 full MLB seasons:

 

 

2017: 3.89 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 1.229 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 2.9 K/BB

2018: 3.84 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 1.144 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 3.3 K/BB

2019: 3.68 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 1.233 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 3.8 K/BB

 

Maybe improvement but maybe regression. If improvement, with that rate, it will take him 10 years to realize his potential.

 

Potential is different that results in the ballpark. Maybe it is his training regiment and he needs to focus on recuperating and or pitching, instead of dragging tractor tires around.

 

Could be between his ears. I don't know what it is, but he is not progressing at the rate a top pitcher should be progressing...

And you bring up an interesting point I have mentioned before. I don't believe his offseason regiment is an issue. And I have absolutely no clue what his in-season routine is. But for such a highly conditioned young athlete, he seems to have a late season fade each season after looking so dominant previously. I'm wondering if he is working too hard during the season and should back off to maintain endurance and energy.

[Jham]

Dobnak's success with ridiculous control of an unorthodox pitch mix is reminiscent of Tyler Duffey's 2017. Duffey was hitting corners with multiple curve balls at different speeds and from different angles. But doing that requires so much touch and finesse, almost no pitcher can have that much feel for multiple off speed pitches game in and game out. His curves were beauties, but only dominant when combined with control.

 

Dobnak dominated with pinpoint control of his sinker and slider. In my opinion, I think it's really unlikely he can keep that up. I think his outing in Yankee stadium may well be his new normal.

[Dantes929]

 

Dobnak's success with ridiculous control of an unorthodox pitch mix is reminiscent of Tyler Duffey's 2017. Duffey was hitting corners with multiple curve balls at different speeds and from different angles. But doing that requires so much touch and finesse, almost no pitcher can have that much feel for multiple off speed pitches game in and game out. His curves were beauties, but only dominant when combined with control.

Dobnak dominated with pinpoint control of his sinker and slider. In my opinion, I think it's really unlikely he can keep that up. I think his outing in Yankee stadium may well be his new normal.

Finally someone that saw what I saw.    Fans were saying that off season he needed to develop another pitch  or the league would catch up to him.   No!!!  he was already changing speeds and angles so much it was like he had 20 different pitches.   I suspect that working on that 3rd pitch so much the next year caused him to lose a little bite and command of his curve ball and just as importantly he stopped hitting corners with his fast ball.    Of course then fans said "See, told you he couldn't last as a starter with just two pitches!"   ignoring the fact that those two pitches just weren't as good as the previous year.    Now Dobnak might be the same way but he wasn't just great in his 28 major league innings.   He was great in the 135 innings he pitched in the minors.    He might just be a flash in the pan but I'm not going to just assume so.   Anyone can have a clunker and in Yankees stadium to boot.   At any rate, I think he's earned the shot.

[Herschel78]

I am encouraged by Trueblood’s in depth analysis of Dobnak. Obviously he and the Twins see something there.

 

To me it’s still way to early to tell.

[amjgt]

I think about this thread often

[Thegrin]

I'd love for Dobnik to be our 4th or 5th starter. The problem is, finding 3 or 4 pitchers getting better results.

[jimbo92107]

I'm glad Maeda is on the pitching staff this season. Maeda can show a guy like Dobnak how to get even more guys out by moving the ball around the zone, not just along the bottom of the zone. Venturing away from the floor is what Dobbs needs to do if he wants to keep hitters from golfing for his sinkers. 

[Linus]

I'm glad Maeda is on the pitching staff this season. Maeda can show a guy like Dobnak how to get even more guys out by moving the ball around the zone, not just along the bottom of the zone. Venturing away from the floor is what Dobbs needs to do if he wants to keep hitters from golfing for his sinkers.

Don’t think this on the mark. He gives up few homers so I don’t see anybody golfing his sinkers. I do agree that Maeda could be a good example for him

[twins1095]

 

I'm glad Maeda is on the pitching staff this season. Maeda can show a guy like Dobnak how to get even more guys out by moving the ball around the zone, not just along the bottom of the zone. Venturing away from the floor is what Dobbs needs to do if he wants to keep hitters from golfing for his sinkers. 

 

I don't agree with this at all. Dobnak's pitches all have huge downward break. I'm not sure that you want him pitching at the top of the zone unless you are advocating for a new pitch mix. I don't think you have to worry about Dobnak's HR rate, though there will be times that HRs are hit off of him.

[jimbo92107]

 

I don't agree with this at all. Dobnak's pitches all have huge downward break. I'm not sure that you want him pitching at the top of the zone unless you are advocating for a new pitch mix. I don't think you have to worry about Dobnak's HR rate, though there will be times that HRs are hit off of him.

A new pitch mix is exactly what I'm talking about...after Dobbs gets through the order once or twice. We see how his ducks dominate at first, but after one or two times through, hitters start to adjust. That is when he should be ready to, say, work the outside half instead of the bottom half. If something like that gets him through the order one more time, then we have a six- to seven-inning horse. 

[twins1095]

 

A new pitch mix is exactly what I'm talking about...after Dobbs gets through the order once or twice. We see how his ducks dominate at first, but after one or two times through, hitters start to adjust. That is when he should be ready to, say, work the outside half instead of the bottom half. If something like that gets him through the order one more time, then we have a six- to seven-inning horse. 

 

I think asking Dobnak to learn an entirely new pitch is a tall task. He would need to develop a 4 seam to pitch up in the zone similar to Maeda and even then asking that to be an effective pitch given his lack of velocity seems like a stretch.

 

Working the edges of the plate, sure is something that he could do, but I'm not sure he doesn't do that already and your initial post was about looking to Maeda about pitching at the top of the zone. Maeda has a different pitch mix. I'm not sure it's something Dobnak can replicate... though there may be other things he could do.

[BeatTheRich]

I don't see a lot of mandatories on Randy's to-do list. If he just keeps doing what he's doing and continues tweaking his stuff, he'll be fine far into the future. I see him as one of our 2 or 3 most reliable starters for the next ten years. Assuming continued good health, which I'll happily wish him here.

[jkcarew]

His 2020 small sample is now about the same size as his 2019 small sample.

 

This year, he's walking more, and striking out less, and giving up more home runs, resulting in a predictably higher FIP. None of that matters in the face of an unsustainably low 2020 BABiP against of .189. Dobnak is probably better than we THOUGHT he was...and probably not as good as we THINK he is.

 

Taking that further...Twins staff BABiP against so far this year:...Romo, .118, Wisler .154, Maeda .162, Duffey .182, Dobnak .189, Hill .208 Clippard .231. As a staff, it's .254...something you can only see in small samples.

 

So...let's get those bats going!