Front Page: Twins Path to an Ace Is in Unlocking Jose Berrios

[Ted Schwerzler]

Over the offseason every team in baseball is going to have some sort of opportunity to sign one of the best pitchers in baseball. Gerrit Cole is going to hit the open market, and he’ll likely be joined by Washington Nationals hurler Stephen Strasburg. Those are two arms that represent top-10 talents across the entire sport. Not every team has an ace-caliber pitcher, and rarely do we see two hit the same free agent cycle. We do know that buying pitching is both expensive and cautionary, and for the Twins the easiest plan remains unlocking their own elite arm in Jose Berrios.There should be no expense spared by the Minnesota front office this winter. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have suggested they’ll target impact pitching. Both Cole and Strasburg could be handed blank checks, and the end result may still be in them thumbing their nose at the prospect of playing in the Midwest. I’m very much a fan of what Zack Wheeler could be under the tutelage of Wes Johnson, but it’s the staff ace role that presents the most intrigue.

 

Jose Berrios’ offseason workouts have become the thing of legend. From pulling trucks to flipping tires and doing rigorous beach circuits, there’s nothing that the Puerto Rican native won’t turn into an opportunity to break a sweat. This offseason though, the Twins have presented a new directive. As he left Twins Territory and headed home the plan was for a new training regimen to be instituted. While I have no idea what the specifics of that are, my guess would be that the intensity is likely decreased just a little bit.

 

With the Twins pointed towards a division title as the 2019 season came to an end, Berrios went into August with a 2.80 ERA and capped off the year with a 3.68 mark. The final 10 starts included a 5.83 ERA and .835 OPS against. He surrendered 10 of his 26 homers and gave up an underwhelming 68 hits in 58.2 innings. Certainly, an ugly set of statistics, but it’s become relatively par for the (August) course for the 25-year-old.

 

Now four years into his major league career Berrios owns a 5.96 August ERA and a 4.64 mark in September. Those months also include opposing slugging percentages of .811 and .741 respectively. Despite being from a much warmer climate, his career 3.69 ERA and .627 OPS against before May is light years more impressive. It doesn’t take much analysis to understand that the end of the season is when Berrios is at his absolute worst.

 

From a conceptual standpoint I’d imagine that Minnesota’s plan for Jose this offseason is to find a routine that breeds sustainability. Rocco Baldelli doesn’t want to see his staff ace coming out of the gates flat, but he also needs to know that he’ll take the ball and be just as dominant down the stretch. Working on a routine that allows for endurance and an ability to avoid a breakdown will give pitching coach Wes Johnson a pitcher much more able to pave the way for the starting rotation. Avoiding velocity dips and ineffectiveness for significant periods, the pitcher Berrios was through July represented a talent worthy of Cy Young consideration.

 

I don’t believe we’ve seen the best of Berrios yet, and that shouldn’t be groundbreaking given his youth. It’s on Minnesota to develop him toward taking the next step, and with Falvey’s track record in Cleveland, there should be belief they have the right man for the job. The Twins need to spend and acquire pitching this winter, but the sooner they can unlock their own ace, the better.

 

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MORE FROM TWINS DAILY

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[operation mindcrime]

I'd settle for a solid #2!

[jgfellows]

I honestly don’t understand why he’s not considered an ace now. What piece is he missing? 

[DocBauer]

So much talent, so much stuff, so much potential, I ABSOLUTELY believe this kid has ACE potential. At the WORST, he is a tremendous #2.

 

What holds him back? You mean, continued growth as a still 25yo?

 

He just needs to find a little more "repeatability" with his secondary stuff. He has alread shown the ability to adjust in game when a certain pitch isn't there. As Ted spoke of, his biggest problem seems to be late season. His ethic and conditioning are not a concern. Were I to speculate on his routine, I would guess a little more cardo work, combined with a little less "hard" work late in the year to preserve his endurance. Just guess work on my part.

[rv78]

 

I honestly don’t understand why he’s not considered an ace now. What piece is he missing? 

August, September and October

[diehardtwinsfan]

Berrios was #16 in 2019 in terms of WAR according to FanGraphs.. I'm not sure what people's definition of an ace is, but that's definitely better than a #2... Perhaps it's safe to say he's a #1 with upside of an ace if he can put it together, if people still think those are different categories.

 

But if Berrios is not a top MLB pitcher, then I'm beginning to think we'd have a better chance finding bigfoot than an ace. 

[jgfellows]

 

Berrios was #16 in 2019 in terms of WAR according to FanGraphs.. I'm not sure what people's definition of an ace is, but that's definitely better than a #2... Perhaps it's safe to say he's a #1 with upside of an ace if he can put it together, if people still think those are different categories.

 

But if Berrios is not a top MLB pitcher, then I'm beginning to think we'd have a better chance finding bigfoot than an ace. 

 

it’s like there is this unspoken understanding of “what makes an ace”.  I’ve always assumed ace translated into “he’s the best guy to put us in position to win a game and he does it a lot”. But we have been able to say that about Berrios for a while now.  So what qualities define an ace? (Not just asking you Diehard)

[Badsmerf]

it’s like there is this unspoken understanding of “what makes an ace”. I’ve always assumed ace translated into “he’s the best guy to put us in position to win a game and he does it a lot”. But we have been able to say that about Berrios for a while now. So what qualities define an ace? (Not just asking you Diehard)

I would agree he was for the first part of the year, but he ended badly.... and has wore down at the end of seasons often. The next step is repeating what he did in 2019, for the whole 2020 season. He is a great pitcher, much better than Keith Law ever said he'd be.

 

I also view Ace pitchers as consistently reliable year to year. Some guys lie Gibson can break through and have a great year, but can't be expected to repeat the success. Shoot... Martin Perez was great the first part of the year and completely fell apart. That said, Berrios is close, and we could be calling him the Ace next year.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

it’s like there is this unspoken understanding of “what makes an ace”.  I’ve always assumed ace translated into “he’s the best guy to put us in position to win a game and he does it a lot”. But we have been able to say that about Berrios for a while now.  So what qualities define an ace? (Not just asking you Diehard)

 

Starting a playoff game, going 6-7 innings and giving up a run or less. That is an ACE. He's pitched in 2 playoff game so far and not been great. He's also had a couple seasons here now where like stated in the article, not been as good later in the year. 

 

Berrios has it in him. He's darn good. I think this article hit on what needs to happen. Change something so that he is just as effective late in the year as the beginning. 

 

He's young. I think he will likely improve. Not a harder worker on the team. 

Edited October 25, 2019 by Battle ur tail off

[Danchat]

In my book, he’s a quality #2 starter and an incredibly important asset to this team. He may have the potential to be a true ace, but I’d like to see the team try to find another one. If they want to build a World Series caliber team, they’re gonna need a real #1.

[Linus]

He has ace stuff but not ace command. If he improves his control he can be one of the best pitchers in baseball

[Jham]

Rays traded Archer and got back Glasnow. (and Odo for nada) Berrios has to be even more coveted... Lots of ways to build a winner.

[Badsmerf]

Rays traded Archer and got back Glasnow. (and Odo for nada) Berrios has to be even more coveted... Lots of ways to build a winner.

What have the Rays won?

[Jham]

What have the Rays won?

96 regular season games and 3 playoff games this season?

 

My point is only that all the forum talk is centered around bringing in free agent arms slotting above to just behind Berrios. No talk about a Berrios extension which we attempted and failed last winter, reportedly.

 

If he's not going to re-sign its reasonable to start thinking about a potential Glasnow type return.

Edited October 26, 2019 by Jham

[Badsmerf]

96 regular season games and 3 playoff games this season?

 

My point is only that all the forum talk is centered around bringing in free agent arms slotting above to just behind Berrios. No talk about a Berrios extension which we attempted and failed last winter, reportedly.

 

If he's not going to re-sign its reasonable to start thinking about a potential Glasnow type return.

I don't disagree with that. I do disagree the Rays organization is in a better position than the Twins (you didn't say that) and that the Rays have won anything.

 

I don't care about winning playoff games. I care about winning playoff series.