Concern about Royce Lewis?

[Vanimal46]

Admittedly I haven't been following the minors as close this year now that the MLB team is entertaining... His stats through 51 games .218/.286/.330 aren't what I like to see from someone described as a future star.

 

His counting stats at High-A:

 

431 PA - .238/.309./.367 for a .675 OPS...

 

I'm also reading on Twitter he's being Uber aggressive and taking undisciplined swings...

 

What gives?

[darin617]

The pressure that comes from being #1. Along with everyone trying to hit 50 by the All-Star break. I would rather have a guy hitting .320 with 10 hr than someone hitting .210 20 hr

[gunnarthor]

First, the FSL is a pitcher's league so it's likely he's pressing a bit. Hitters in the FSL are averaging a  .241/.313/.355 line. For comparison, the AL is averaging a .249/.322/.430 line. His strike out rate has gone up a bit too much from last year's cup of coffee in the FSL but his walk rate is a pretty solid 8.5% despite that.

 

Second, he's really young. According to B-R, there are only 10 hitters listed as 20 or younger in the FSL right now. Fangraphs lists 11 with 50 PA. 

 

That said, I think I read somewhere that his mechanics were out of whack, which might be due to pressing or just trying something new. I'd probably wait a bit longer before getting too worried. 

[Vanimal46]

I understand using league average in the FSL for context, but Lewis shouldn't be near average. He should be well above average as a top 10 prospect in all of baseball.

 

The young age is hard to accept too when Kirilloff dominated the league last year as a 20 year old missing more time than Lewis.

[Mr. Brooks]

I understand using league average in the FSL for context, but Lewis shouldn't be near average. He should be well above average as a top 10 prospect in all of baseball.

 

The young age is hard to accept too when Kirilloff dominated the league last year as a 20 year old missing more time than Lewis.

Alex Kirilloff was also raised by a hitting coach. It's reasonable to expect that Kirilloff started the process with a more finely tuned swing than Lewis did.

 

If Lewis continues to struggle like this all year, I'll start to worry. I expect he's going through an adjustment period right now, and will catch fire sometime in the second half of the season.

[SF Twins Fan]

Did Royce start the season on the IL with an oblique injury?  If that's the case I wonder if he's had some lingering side effects.  Hopefully, we'll see him take off soon and force his way up to AA at the end of the season.

[Ishcabbibke7]

I really hope Royce picks it up. I started buying his rookie cards a year ago. ....and have not stopped.....

[nater79a]

 

Did Royce start the season on the IL with an oblique injury?  If that's the case I wonder if he's had some lingering side effects.  Hopefully, we'll see him take off soon and force his way up to AA at the end of the season.

 

Yeah, was wondering this too.  If the oblique injury - even if healed - threw his mechanics out of whack.

[gunnarthor]

 

I understand using league average in the FSL for context, but Lewis shouldn't be near average. He should be well above average as a top 10 prospect in all of baseball.

The young age is hard to accept too when Kirilloff dominated the league last year as a 20 year old missing more time than Lewis.

Yes and no. I agree that a top 10 prospect should be doing better but I'm not quite ready to panic over it. But I disagree that Kiriloff is a relevant comparison. Both are great prospects but for different reasons. Kiriloff is a bat first player at a position where defense doesn't really matter. He's gotten to where he is in the rankings by showing a major hit profile. Lewis, on the other hand, isn't as advanced as Kiriloff is with the bat but is also playing a premium defensive position. If he can continue to do so, he won't need to hit as much so his rankings reflect that as well.

[Thegrin]

A lot of players have trouble when they first enter a higher league.  Then they work hard, learn to relax and let their natural talent take over. 

[caninatl04]

I’m worried that he’s already 27. Wait, what? He’s one of the youngest in his league? Let’s panic once he’s 24.

[Vanimal46]

Yes and no. I agree that a top 10 prospect should be doing better but I'm not quite ready to panic over it. But I disagree that Kiriloff is a relevant comparison. Both are great prospects but for different reasons. Kiriloff is a bat first player at a position where defense doesn't really matter. He's gotten to where he is in the rankings by showing a major hit profile. Lewis, on the other hand, isn't as advanced as Kiriloff is with the bat but is also playing a premium defensive position. If he can continue to do so, he won't need to hit as much so his rankings reflect that as well.

Fair enough. Let's take a look at recent top 10 prospects in baseball that play a premium position and their production in high-A ball:

 

Brendan Rodgers - 2017 - Age 20 - .387/.407/.671 in 236 PA before getting the call to AA.

 

Willy Adames - 2015 - Age 19 - .258/.342/.379 in 456 PA before getting the call to AA.

 

Gleyber Torres - 2016 - Age 19 - .270/.354/.421 in 547 PA before getting the call to AA.

 

J.P. Crawford - 2014 - Age 19 - .286/.373/.395 in 415 PA before getting the call to AA.

 

Amed Rosario - 2015-16 - Age 19/20 - .278/.328/.378 in 707 PA before getting the call to AA.

 

Corey Seager - 2013-2014 - Age 19/20 - .307/.372/.560 in 479 PA before getting the call to AA.

 

Trea Turner - Never played A+ ball. Pretty crazy.

 

Orlando Arcia - 2014 - Age 19 - .289/.346/.392 in 546 PA before getting the call to AA.

 

I don't know man. I gave several examples of top prospect short stops who all played at this level the same age Lewis is playing right now, and all of them have better stats.

 

I'm concerned.

[Vanimal46]

I’m worried that he’s already 27. Wait, what? He’s one of the youngest in his league? Let’s panic once he’s 24.

I want him to make his MLB debut way before 27. And preferably before 24. Hard to do that when your OPS is .675 after 431 PA in A+ ball.

[Thrylos]

He is 20.  He'll be fine.  There will be ups and downs...  No need to compare him to others.  Each player follows his own learning curve.   Downtimes are necessary so one learns how to get out of them.

That's what the minors are for.

 

 

(If the Twins can get a young controllable ace for him, on the other hand...)

[Vanimal46]

He is 20. He'll be fine. There will be ups and downs... No need to compare him to others. Each player follows his own learning curve. Downtimes are necessary so one learns how to get out of them.

That's what the minors are for.

 

 

(If the Twins can get a young controllable ace for him, on the other hand...)

Pretty strange that his down time is coming in PAs 210-400+ at the same level. Normally those happen at the beginning of a new level.

[gunnarthor]

 

Fair enough. Let's take a look at recent top 10 prospects in baseball that play a premium position and their production in high-A ball:

Brendan Rodgers - 2017 - Age 20 - .387/.407/.671 in 236 PA before getting the call to AA.

Willy Adames - 2015 - Age 19 - .258/.342/.379 in 456 PA before getting the call to AA.

Gleyber Torres - 2016 - Age 19 - .270/.354/.421 in 547 PA before getting the call to AA.

J.P. Crawford - 2014 - Age 19 - .286/.373/.395 in 415 PA before getting the call to AA.

Amed Rosario - 2015-16 - Age 19/20 - .278/.328/.378 in 707 PA before getting the call to AA.

Corey Seager - 2013-2014 - Age 19/20 - .307/.372/.560 in 479 PA before getting the call to AA.

Trea Turner - Never played A+ ball. Pretty crazy.

Orlando Arcia - 2014 - Age 19 - .289/.346/.392 in 546 PA before getting the call to AA.

I don't know man. I gave several examples of top prospect short stops who all played at this level the same age Lewis is playing right now, and all of them have better stats.

I'm concerned.

I think it's ok to be concerned. And I only looked at one guy on your list but ...

 

Royce Lewis, 390 at bats A+ - .238/.309/.367 .675 OPS

Amed Rosario, 395 at-bats in A+, .253/.302/.329 (.631 OPS)

 

Now, Amed was a year younger than Lewis so that's something. But generally, I think it's ok to be concerned but I'd generally bet on the talent to develop. Lewis will probably be a pretty good major leaguer. 

[Han Joelo]

The bar for a number 1 draft pick, top 10 Prospect-type in Baseball is set at Alex Rodriguez, and a few others.  I think it is okay to feel bummed that he is not quite on that trajectory, or maybe even the trajectory of the guys Van mentioned above.

 

While at the same time acknowledging he isn't a bust, or won't ever turn out to be a stud.  He just may not be The One.  (The One is currently playing in Anaheim, anyway.  And any fan of Highlander knows there can be only one.)

[drivlikejehu]

It's obviously not ideal that Lewis is struggling, but there's some overreacting going on too (surprise). Player development isn't always linear. I trust that the Twins will help him make the necessary adjustments.

[bird]

 

I understand using league average in the FSL for context, but Lewis shouldn't be near average. He should be well above average as a top 10 prospect in all of baseball.

The young age is hard to accept too when Kirilloff dominated the league last year as a 20 year old missing more time than Lewis.

 

 

I believe KLAW relayed scouting feedback that Lewis's swing had gotten a little loud. Nothing that can't be fixed.

[Thrylos]

 

Pretty strange that his down time is coming in PAs 210-400+ at the same level. Normally those happen at the beginning of a new level.

 

Here is the thing:  He had an oblique injury during the Camp.  Those take months to heal.  Likely responsible for his down time.  The Twins decided that it is better to have him out there to take plate appearances and field reps than shut him down.

[Roaddog]

My thinking is he changed his swing a bit to compensate for the injury. Just a matter of ironing out the kinks. I'm not too worried

[Doctor Wu]

 

Here is the thing:  He had an oblique injury during the Camp.  Those take months to heal.  Likely responsible for his down time.  The Twins decided that it is better to have him out there to take plate appearances and field reps than shut him down.

I know almost nothing about oblique injuries, but what's the average time a player will spend on the IL, or at least rehabbing after such an injury? I'm guessing it will affect a player's speed and mobility in the early days back on the field, but how much would it affect his overall hitting skills? And is it really beter to give him more plate appearances and field reps if he isn't completely healthy? I'm not disagreeing with that idea, but I'm just trying to understand more about this injury and how long it takes a player to come back 100%. Sure, it's still early in the season, and I buy into the young guy in a new league theory, but count me among those who are at least a bit worried at Royce's lack of progress so far this year.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm curious, if his swing is bad and can be fixed, why is it still bad?

 

Superstars come up at a younger age, any setback in timing makes it less likely he's a superstar....

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I'm curious, if his swing is bad and can be fixed, why is it still bad?

Superstars come up at a younger age, any setback in timing makes it less likely he's a superstar....

 

I don't care if he was 1 overall, that's an unfair label. 

 

But for reference, Buxton's third season was a complete loss and (so far at least) he's looking like he's turned out OK. Lewis could be fighting injuries all season long and still be in a position to be called up from AA/AAA in 2020/2021. I wouldn't be too worried about him just yet. 

[Mike Sixel]

I don't care if he was 1 overall, that's an unfair label.

 

But for reference, Buxton's third season was a complete loss and (so far at least) he's looking like he's turned out OK. Lewis could be fighting injuries all season long and still be in a position to be called up from AA/AAA in 2020/2021. I wouldn't be too worried about him just yet.

I'm not sure I understand your first sentence?

 

Less likely does not mean can't or won't happen. It simply means less likely. I'm not worried yet, but I'm also not thrilled. I'd describe myself as mildly disappointed so far this year.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I'm not sure I understand your first sentence?

Less likely does not mean can't or won't happen. It simply means less likely. I'm not worried yet, but I'm also not thrilled. I'd describe myself as mildly disappointed so far this year.

 

I don't think any minor leaguer should be labeled with the term super star... Let him do something in the majors first. 

 

I can respect being disappointed this year... setbacks happen. He's also repeating High A and doing worse, which tells me that the injury he had is likely a bigger deal than we'd like... Either way, I'm not losing too much sleep over it. He's got this season plus 2 more seasons until he needs to be on the 40 man and will likely be playing in AAA at worst come that timeframe. That's a pretty good prospect. 

[Monkeypaws]

I wonder if he still has that huge leg kick as part of his swing. Maybe it's time to ditch that if so.

[Vanimal46]

I don't care if he was 1 overall, that's an unfair label.

 

But for reference, Buxton's third season was a complete loss and (so far at least) he's looking like he's turned out OK. Lewis could be fighting injuries all season long and still be in a position to be called up from AA/AAA in 2020/2021. I wouldn't be too worried about him just yet.

If he's fighting injuries all season long shut him down until he's fully healthy. What's the point of 200 unhealthy plate appearances?

 

I thought we moved past the macho man I can play through anything that Brian Dozier was known for.

[drivlikejehu]

The best policy is to never, ever bank on a prospect turning into a superstar. It's too rare and unpredictable. The advantage with an athletic, up-the-middle player is that they can accumulate WAR in a number of ways. If Lewis turns into a legit shortstop, he doesn't have to be a great hitter to add a lot of value.

[jkcarew]

Even for very high draft picks, there often (even usually) comes a time when you have to lower expectations...or lower your 'hopes'. Makes sense since pretty much all fans have at least a hope or dream of superstardom when their club gets a number 1/2, etc overall pick. So, that's what starts to happen with me when I see these results over an extended period. Even considering that is at least mildly disappointing, even without drawing definitive conclusions.

 

Also, not buying the "he's injured" narrative. If he's injured and fighting through it...as a number 1 draft pick in the low minors at age 20...the entire minor league staff should be fired immediately.