Twins select RHP Austin Adams

[jkcarew]

 

You'd have to take that up with Keith Law, BA, etc. The Twins never said they had a bunch of young relievers on the way up.

But it's not like any of the starters are in any decent place to help either....neither in starting roles nor to help the big club in temporary relief roles. The ones that were near are either hurt, ineffective, hurt and ineffective, or scarily inconsistent (Thorpe), or magically turned into ineffective relievers (Romero).

 

I do think it will get better...but at this particular point in time, it's as if all of the options we thought we'd have have vaporized.

[Vanimal46]

Or TBD. I'd guess most teams aren't willing to trade top end relief arms this early. If one team is willing to blow them away with an offer, they'd think, surely there are more, let's drag this out with a bidding war.

 

Though I'm not sure I'll end up wanting the guys seen as the cream of the crop, I usually don't put much faith in numbers translating across leagues and teams. Both of those guys would be fine as they're rarely ever great but they're consistently decent to good. I'll bet there are lesser known guys with better velocity, peripherals and fewer innings the last few years who'd intrigue me just as much.

I am curious now that the August deadline is over if we have to move the timeline up a month. Where June is the month high end players are traded, and July is the month where Zach Duke types are traded.

[ashbury]

You'd have to take that up with Keith Law, BA, etc. The Twins never said they had a bunch of young relievers on the way up.

Not since the 2014 draft, anyway.

[jkcarew]

 

The Twins' bullpen is right around league average in overall metrics and 6th in win probability added. I'm far from thrilled with the unit, but there is a hyperbolic negativity about it on here that doesn't line up with the actual results.

I think this is a good point. But IMO, it's misleading. The bullpen was protected for a long stretch by brilliant and long starting efforts and a soft schedule. While I'm optimistic the starters can continue to be good, they aren't going to be that good...and we can see what's happened in just one cycle through the rotation when the starters were merely fair (really didn't even have any super short starts).

[zwiefz]

I agree that it seems ridiculous that a guy like Adams is the best option to bring up.  But look at the 40 man roster right now. 

 

Of the 15 players not currently active 3 are on IL and 4 are position players.  That leaves 8 minor league pitchers on 40 man roster.  Gonsalves, Littell,  and Stewart are primarily starters(I think??).  Besides, Gonsalves and Littell don't have great numbers either right now.  That leaves 5 minor league relievers. Subtracting Hildenberger you have 4 left: Moya, Thorpe, Vasquez, and Romero. None of them appear to be pitching well enough to call up right now either.

 

So bottom line: the front office has devoted 1/3 of their 15 minor league spots to relievers, which seems like plenty to me.  Based on their numbers going into this year is there anyone who can truly say they would have thought all of them would be struggling so badly at the same time?

 

Adams may not be a great choice.  But he has one thing going for him.....he is expendable after they get some innings out of him.  If he pitches well, great.  If not, you drop him in a week and start that revolving door at the 25th/40th roster spot until you find the next Magill, Morin, Harper, etc(or in a dream world Kimbrel )

 

[nicksaviking]

 

I am curious now that the August deadline is over if we have to move the timeline up a month. Where June is the month high end players are traded, and July is the month where Zach Duke types are traded.

 

I hope so, but it could be the other way around too. Sellers might know the return for Duke types isn't likely to increase as the summer wears on so those are the guys sloughed off first.

 

 

[nicksaviking]

 

I agree that it seems ridiculous that a guy like Adams is the best option to bring up.  But look at the 40 man roster right now. 

 

 

 

My distaste for Adams has been been somewhat diminished since Seth stated in the other thread he sits at 95-96 with his heater. The strikeouts might not be such an illusion if accurate.

 

He wasn't my first choice, and I still would give him the boot (and Harper and Morin) at the first sign of not being able to cut it, but I'm generally OK with checking out guys with good velocity. 

[Linus]

Not THE Austin Adams. Another shrewd bullpen move from Falvine

[USAFChief]

 

Not THE Austin Adams. Another shrewd bullpen move from Falvine

 

Even his parents are surprised by the recall.

[ashbury]

 

 

Even his parents are surprised by the recall.

[jud6312]

 

Also, a very attractive lipstick.

 

Attractive enough to place on this bullpen?

 

 

[jud6312]

Admittedly, the Magills, Morins, Harpers, etc. of the world have surprised so far, but as many have mentioned it's been in low-leverage situations, and I'm not sure there's enough of those to go around. Morin didn't look so sharp against the Angels, and they're the Angels.

 

I'm just not sure how many of these guys you can have in a single bullpen.

[SomeGuy]

 

Yes, the International League K% is 23.2%. Five years ago, it was only 19.4%.

 

I imagine it would be higher for relievers than starters too, but I don't know that split.

That's interesting that International league K% exactly matches MLB's K% of 23.2%

[drivlikejehu]

 

Or starters, or what......because the SP and RP are mostly from outside the org. The 1B and DH and 2B? Outside the org. The utility guy? outside the org. For a team that has been pretty bad for years, and is building a "sustainably competitive organization", not much help is coming from the org.....This is about the organization, and looking at what it's done. 

 

The Twins never said they had one of the top minor league systems. That's something 3rd parties have said. So rhetorically questioning why reinforcements aren't arriving is something you'd have to ask those 3rd parties. The Twins didn't tell fans that their plans were built around reinforcements from the minor leagues.

 

So far as whether there should be a greater concern over the state of the system, the current front office has only been in place for 2 draft classes, and it takes time to build out organization-wide infrastructure like scouting, analytics, etc. 

 

So even if you are correct that the Twins' system is overrated by outside analysts, it would be ludicrous to blame the current front office for it.

[yarnivek1972]

My distaste for Adams has been been somewhat diminished since Seth stated in the other thread he sits at 95-96 with his heater. The strikeouts might not be such an illusion if accurate.

 

He wasn't my first choice, and I still would give him the boot (and Harper and Morin) at the first sign of not being able to cut it, but I'm generally OK with checking out guys with good velocity.

Jim Hoey cranked it at about 97-98.

 

Pretty much every MLB hitter can hit a fastball.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You'd have to take that up with Keith Law, BA, etc. The Twins never said they had a bunch of young relievers on the way up.

I don't know if this is a productive line of debate, but the front office's actions have suggested they believed in their internal bullpen options, arguably more than they should have.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I hope so, but it could be the other way around too. Sellers might know the return for Duke types isn't likely to increase as the summer wears on so those are the guys sloughed off first.

But they've largely already known that, and we've never seen many Duke types dealt early. Buyers likely don't want to buy the Duke types, even at reduced prices, until they know they can't get better players.

[jud6312]

 

Jim Hoey cranked it at about 97-98.

Pretty much every MLB hitter can hit a fastball.

 

Yeah, but like, did Jim Hoey have Falvey on speed dial? That's the most important outpitch to have these days.

[drivlikejehu]

 

I don't know if this is a productive line of debate, but the front office's actions have suggested they believed in their internal bullpen options, arguably more than they should have.

 

Well the bullpen is 6th in the Majors in WPA and the team is 27-15. So I'm struggling to see what exactly they were wrong about. Literally no one expected the bullpen to be the strength of the team, and it's not, but they had a plan and so far, it's working, even if you go by BaseRuns (26-16) rather than actual record, to cut down on the 'luck' factor.

[wsnydes]

 

The Twins' bullpen is right around league average in overall metrics and 6th in win probability added. I'm far from thrilled with the unit, but there is a hyperbolic negativity about it on here that doesn't line up with the actual results. 

 

Obviously, they will need to do something at the deadline if they want to seriously contend. 

The run the starters have had over the last several weeks probably aid that quite a bit. Only having to cover an inning or two per game and not needing to use the weaker options much helps metrics considerably.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So bottom line: the front office has devoted 1/3 of their 15 minor league spots to relievers, which seems like plenty to me.  Based on their numbers going into this year is there anyone who can truly say they would have thought all of them would be struggling so badly at the same time?

I don't think anyone is under-performing that much, compared to preseason expectations. Hildy was bad to finish 2018. Reed was pretty iffy in 2018 too. Parker and Rogers have probably been better than expected. Guys like Romero, Moya, Vasquez, Harper, etc. -- they're largely wild cards, and I wouldn't expect all of them to do well.

 

I think the point of the criticism here is that the front office has been leaning a lot on these wild cards, and if they don't perform, that brings the front office's judgement into question.

[nicksaviking]

 

Jim Hoey cranked it at about 97-98.

Pretty much every MLB hitter can hit a fastball.

 

Right, but it's more encouraging than a 32-year-old journeyman reliever hitting 91-92.

 

No reason not to call up Reed if you think velocity isn't of value.

[nicksaviking]

Just for fun, my prediction for the staying power of the JMRC (JourneyMen Reliever Club) from 1st gone to last:

 

1. Harper - Curveball wizard? Been there done that and Duffey's still here anyway.

2. Adams - Among the other three, his name is first alphabetically so the GM will think of him first when it's time to swing the axe.

3. Morin - With Hildenberger gone, no one in the pen throws much of a changeup, someone in the pen needs to have one right?

4. Magill - He was the only one to survive last year's JMRC carousal, he must have some dirt on someone.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Well the bullpen is 6th in the Majors in WPA and the team is 27-15. So I'm struggling to see what exactly they were wrong about. Literally no one expected the bullpen to be the strength of the team, and it's not, but they had a plan and so far, it's working, even if you go by BaseRuns (26-16) rather than actual record, to cut down on the 'luck' factor.

If the plan has us turning to Harper, Morin, Magill, Duffey, and Adams by mid-May, I think it's fair to question it. Although I agree, I'd stop short of saying it's an "abysmal situation" quite yet.

 

As others have noted, there's some evidence that the pen's weaknesses have been shielded so far. Our pen ranks 21st in wOBA in high leverage situations, but we're also only 20th in high leverage innings pitched. (Interestingly, we rank 1st in medium leverage performance, and 24th in low leverage... fortunately most of our innings qualify as medium leverage!)

 

Also, some people thought perhaps the bullpen could have been a potential strength, if they had kept Pressly or added another reliever of that caliber. I'm not sure if we should credit the front office for aiming lower than that.

[VATwinsFan]

Carlos Torrez opted out of his minor league deal with the Padres.  Yeah, he's 36 years old but he has plenty of MLB experience and might be worth calling to see if he's interested in having a chance to chance to pitch for a division leader.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Twins never said they had one of the top minor league systems. That's something 3rd parties have said. So rhetorically questioning why reinforcements aren't arriving is something you'd have to ask those 3rd parties. The Twins didn't tell fans that their plans were built around reinforcements from the minor leagues.

 

So far as whether there should be a greater concern over the state of the system, the current front office has only been in place for 2 draft classes, and it takes time to build out organization-wide infrastructure like scouting, analytics, etc. 

 

So even if you are correct that the Twins' system is overrated by outside analysts, it would be ludicrous to blame the current front office for it.

 

I never blamed them.....

 

I'm asking where the help is, and you are responding that, what, I shouldn't expect it because all the gurus are wrong? I'm not sure your point at all....

[Craig Arko]

Addison Reed DFA’d.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Addison Reed DFA’d.

 

Wow. Every RP signed in the winter last year now gone? I gotta admit serious surprise at that.

[VATwinsFan]

Hopefully Adams's first appearance won't be being dropped into a bases loaded situation like Vazquez's was in New York.

[Otto von Ballpark]