Gio

[stringer bell]

Opinions on Gio Gonzalez? My thoughts are a lefty free agent who wouldn't cost a draft choice is something to look into. He wouldn't cost as much Dallas Keuchel and he would be ready to go immediately. The Twins bullpen problems would be alleviated by another starter who routinely pitches six innings. Gonzalez has exceeded 170 innings every year but one since 2010 and got over 200 IP three times in that time period. He's older, but not ancient.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Would you bounce Perez?

[Vanimal46]

Why is "he would cost less than Keuchel" a benefit? The Twins should sign the best players they can. Is Gio better than Keuchel?

[Mike Sixel]

I would see if he'd go into the pen, and put him there immediately. Give it time to see if it works. I'd think if he was a good starting option, the Yankees would have kept him but even they can be wrong....

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'd think if he was a good starting option, the Yankees would have kept him but even they can be wrong....

Severino is still out, but the Yankees rotation seems mostly intact with Tanaka-Paxton-Happ-Sabathia-German. So they didn't really have a spot to roster Gio Gonzalez right now.

[Respy]

Gio has never had great control, now his FB velocity has dropped below 90. I just don't see any value here IMO.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would see if he'd go into the pen, and put him there immediately. Give it time to see if it works.

FWIW, Gonzalez hasn't appeared in relief since 2009.

[goulik]

FWIW, Yankees didn't cut him, he exercised his opt out...

[Number3]

As the man behind the curtain said, "Not no way, not no how" on Gonzales. Saw him many times for the Nationals on MASN and he is a pure front runner kind of like Darvish without as much talent. Wouldn't want him at any price even as bp pitcher.

[nicksaviking]

 

Why is "he would cost less than Keuchel" a benefit? The Twins should sign the best players they can. Is Gio better than Keuchel?

 

I don't care about cost, but Gio would have no leverage to complain if he had to be put in the pen and the Twins wouldn't have any issues cutting ties with him if he stinks it up. They wouldn't have those luxuries with Keuchel. And at least Gonzalez has been facing live batters.

 

I'd only have modest interest in Gonzalez though maybe I'd even say minimal. I'd guess Perez would be pushed to the pen initially, but I'd really like to find a way to get Odorizzi there; I think I'm always going to struggle trusting him past the 4th or 5th inning.

[SomeGuy]

Gio gave up 10 runs in 15 innings at AAA so far this year.  AAA batters were hitting .317 off him.  Small sample size blah blah blah, but he is clearly a pitcher in decline. 

 

I wouldn't rank him ahead of anyone we currently have (bullpen included).  He has no interest in being a AAA depth piece.  Easy pass for me. 

 

 

His repertoire suffered greatly from a huge step back in his curveball, a pitch that routinely earned swings-and-misses held just a 9% swinging-strike rate last year, forcing Gonzalez to turn to his decent changeup more often as a put-away pitch. Without that big hook in his back-pocket, it will be tough for Gonzalez to return quality innings with a sub 90mph fastball and middling changeup and we may see Gonzalez go the way of James Shields and Ubaldo Jimenez shortly. (Nick Pollack-FanGraphs)

[Otto von Ballpark]

Gio gave up 10 runs in 15 innings at AAA so far this year. AAA batters were hitting .317 off him. Small sample size blah blah blah, but he is clearly a pitcher in decline.

 

I wouldn't quite "blah blah blah" that small sample. His first start in AAA stunk, but he had virtually no spring training. His next 2 starts in AAA were dominant.

 

I don't know if this suggests any kind of decline from his 2018 level yet.

[DocBauer]

I can't believe I'm actually typing this, but I think I'd rather stick with Perez at this point and see if the changes made keep him on the upswing. (New team, greater velocity, change in repertoire, etc). He's younger and there is at least still potential I'm his arm.

[Channing1964]

His numbers don't lie, but I can't say I've ever seen him pitch live. I thought he was someone we should look at before we got Perez . I have seen Perez live and man, I can't believe he hasn't had a more successful career. So, nope, to get Gio, Perez would have to go and I think Perez is a keeper. As our number 5 starter? We could do way worse than Perez.

[Doomtints]

Is he injured? He only played 2 innings in spring training.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Is he injured? He only played 2 innings in spring training.

He signed late (March 20).

[Mr. Brooks]

As the man behind the curtain said, "Not no way, not no how" on Gonzales. Saw him many times for the Nationals on MASN and he is a pure front runner kind of like Darvish without as much talent. Wouldn't want him at any price even as bp pitcher.

What do you mean by him being a front runner?

[Mr. Brooks]

Why is "he would cost less than Keuchel" a benefit? The Twins should sign the best players they can. Is Gio better than Keuchel?

It's a benefit because, like it or not, the FO has a budget they have to answer to.

 

That said, I don't have much interest in Gio specifically.

[Riverbrian]

I can't escape this thought. 

 

Why did he sign a minor league deal? Lance Lynn got 30 million over 3 years. 

 

What does every team in baseball know that we don't know. 

[DocBauer]

I can't escape this thought. 

 

Why did he sign a minor league deal? Lance Lynn got 30 million over 3 years. 

 

What does every team in baseball know that we don't know.

 

EXACTLY!

 

I was NOT a fan of the Perez signing. I remain anywhere from guarded to skeptical.

 

Except, Perez has great/improved velocity. Perez is several years younger. There was an article, can't remember which one or who posted, that broke down the results of his pitches and which ones were actually most effective, even though be drifted from those. Perez had a great ST, SSS and all that. His early work out of the pen was uneven, but I saw good stuff too. His last start was quite good.

 

At this point I would stick with what we have and see what we have with Perez. Change of scenery and new coaching and new opportunity could pay huge dividends. Or he just might be solid. But I'd stay status quo at this point.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I can't escape this thought.

 

Why did he sign a minor league deal? Lance Lynn got 30 million over 3 years.

 

What does every team in baseball know that we don't know.

I suspect that Gonzalez didn't start the offseason with a realistic asking price. Not that he would have been offered 3/30, but maybe someone would have given him a Perez style deal but he and his agent were holding out for more.

[Riverbrian]

 

I suspect that Gonzalez didn't start the offseason with a realistic asking price. Not that he would have been offered 3/30, but maybe someone would have given him a Perez style deal but he and his agent were holding out for more.

 

That would be my guess also but... a minor league deal? 

 

I know it had heavy incentives based on MLB appearances that would have greatly increased the value but ultimately it was a minor league deal and surely someone would have offered him an actual rotation spot. 

 

I have no idea. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Gio signed with the Brewers today for $2 mil plus $2 mil in incentives:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/04/brewers-to-sign-gio-gonzalez.html

[Mike Sixel]

The Brewers have been right a lot lately.... We'll see if that continues.

[SomeGuy]

 

I wouldn't quite "blah blah blah" that small sample. His first start in AAA stunk, but he had virtually no spring training. His next 2 starts in AAA were dominant.

I don't know if this suggests any kind of decline from his 2018 level yet.

A 2018 level that was already poor, especially considering his pre-2016 results.  ERA and FIP over 4, big decline in k% and increase in BB%.  4 consecutive years now his FIP and xFIP have risen.  His velocity is declining.

 

Pitcher in decline.  At least he is staying in the NL.  I would take all 5 of our rotation over him (and I really dislike Odorizzi).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

A 2018 level that was already poor, especially considering his pre-2016 results.  ERA and FIP over 4, big decline in k% and increase in BB%.  4 consecutive years now his FIP and xFIP have risen.  His velocity is declining.

 

Pitcher in decline.  At least he is staying in the NL.  I would take all 5 of our rotation over him (and I really dislike Odorizzi).

2018 was poor? It was league average over 32 starts. He's not as good as he once was, obviously, but it was a stretch to bring up one bad AAA start as meaningful evidence of his decline at this point.

 

Even if you don't think he's appreciably better than our 5 starters right now, he's probably not appreciably worse than a few of them either, and there's still probably a case that the Twins could have been better off grabbing him and stashing someone in the pen for a bit. Our immediate SP depth doesn't look too appealing at the moment.

[howieramone2]

No way we were going to sign Gio at this point in time. As they said on MLBTR, we are going to continue the Perez experiment. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

interesting contract 2 mil plus up to 2 mil in incentives. - Incentives are points per appearance, 2 points for 3 innings or longer, 1 point for anything else. 1/3 mil at thresholds in 5 point increments 25-50

 

https://twitter.com/ByRobertMurray/status/1121089914924425221 

[RatherBeGolfing]

 

2018 was poor? It was league average over 32 starts. He's not as good as he once was, obviously, but it was a stretch to bring up one bad AAA start as meaningful evidence of his decline at this point.

 

Even if you don't think he's appreciably better than our 5 starters right now, he's probably not appreciably worse than a few of them either, and there's still probably a case that the Twins could have been better off grabbing him and stashing someone in the pen for a bit. Our immediate SP depth doesn't look too appealing at the moment.

 

This is the correct take. His deal proves he was a cheap experiment at bare minimum.

[nicksaviking]

I would have taken him as depth, but I'd rather see Perez for the time being, I'm digging his velocity and want to see if it pays off with some more even performances. I'm also hoping to see what Romero, Stewart and Thorpe have to offer sometime this season, and fingers crossed, Graterol. Those guys are going to need a lot of MLB innings if the team is going to be leaning on most of them to fill out the rotation next year.