Article: Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Relief Pitcher

[jorgenswest]

Pressly threw 47.2 IP for the Twins across 103 games. His Astros stats were 23.1 IP in 56 games. Had the Astros used him 2.2 more innings, it would've been equal use. Nothing drastic.

 

Should we be looking over the long term or would it be a very busy week or a couple of back to back games close together?

 

I have no idea how to judge but it seems a short period of overuse could have an effect that lasts for a stretch. I also wonder about that 2.2 out of 23.1 which probably represents 3 outings or almost 10% of the 23.1. I am not confident that is insignificant. The other unknown is how many times the manager warmed the reliever up.

 

I will be interested to see if Baldelli manages the pen differently.

[DocBauer]

In regards to Pressly, I didn't like the trade then, and j don't like it now. There is a decent chance the pkayers they acquired are going to be good. But with another year of control, and need on the Twins, I didn't see it as a "too good to turn down" offer. I also think this staff would have done many of the same things Houston did, or have been credited with. It's too bad, but he's gone.

 

Brock made a great comment in a different thread the other day about how much better he'd feel about the pen with just ONE acquisition you felt like could make a difference. I agree 100%!

 

That ONE ARM is not only a guy you could count on, but pushes everyone else down a notch, deepening the entire pen.

 

I like and believe in May and Rogers. I think Parker was a solid addition. I think we've seen enough of Mejia to realize he can be good in either role, just needs to find the ability/toughness to put hitters away with 2 strikes. (Comes with experience). But what else is there we can feel remotely good about at this point?

 

Romero has the arm talent to succeed, and do well. Being one of our best arms, I want to take that arm and potential north. But his last 2 appearances have been awful. (To be fair, his defense let him down on Sunday, but still). Reed looks like he is done, or should be on the IL to begin the year.

 

I get the volatile nature of RP and just signing guys and plugging them in doesn't mean success. And there was a great piece a few days back by Matt Braun about building a pen. (Worth reading if you haven't already). The crux is an example of building a quality pen without "names" in place. I get it. But to have a roster that looks this good with at least a decent rotation...and some depth...and not better address the biggest Achilles heel on this team baffles me. There are just too many "iffs" we are counting on to make me comfortable.

 

I have this awful feeling we have a 92/o3 win team who will end up at 82/83 wins due to a bullpen that just can't get the job done consistently enough.

[Linus]

Their bullpen was bad last year. This past off season many free agent relievers were available for cheap. They did nothing to improve a bunch of question marks. I guess I don’t understand spin rates

[Nick Nelson]

 

So what your saying is that before a great 10 game stretch prior to his trade, his ERA was at 4.14 with the 2018 Twins. 

 

Houston unleashed a completely different beast just like they did with Verlander, Cole, Osuna, and Morton.  The player that Houston just resigned is not the same player the Twins traded.  He was good but not one of the most elite relief pitchers in the game.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2018/10/15/magic-dust-spin-rates-buy-in-how-astros-make-good-pitchers-even-better/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.c427047cf821

Pressly was extremely good all year with the exception of a two-week rough stretch in June. He had a 2.15 ERA after 30 appearances. He was a dominant reliever for the Twins.

 

No one is arguing that the Astros didn't make tweaks and seemingly help him improve, but acting like he was some sort of ordinary reliever for the Twins is just blatantly false. Pressly's K-rate and whiff rate were among the best in the league, both before and after the trade.

[Old Twins Cap]

On the Pressly thing, he could not throw his curve ball for strikes. Everyone knew that was his best pitch, but he couldn't get it across and so hitters laid off it.

 

In 2018, when he located his curve, he was terrific. When he didn't, he walked guys and hitters sat on his fastball.

 

Look at his quote, he's saying: Yeah, my curve is my best pitch but I needed to set it up with the fastball. It's not exactly analytics on Houston's part; everyone saw the same thing. But they convinced him to re-order his pitch sequence and philosophy using analytics as evidence.

 

Giving guys confidence and a reason to change so they become successful, call that what you will, but sometimes a video is more persuasive than the knuckle-rap on the chest that says, You can do this.

[dbminn]

 

Should we be looking over the long term or would it be a very busy week or a couple of back to back games close together?

I have no idea how to judge but it seems a short period of overuse could have an effect that lasts for a stretch. I also wonder about that 2.2 out of 23.1 which probably represents 3 outings or almost 10% of the 23.1. I am not confident that is insignificant. The other unknown is how many times the manager warmed the reliever up.

I will be interested to see if Baldelli manages the pen differently.

 

Well, look it up and report back. I'll be happy to read what you come up with. To me, it's not significant. At the least, it's not drastic, as was contended in the original post. 

Edited March 21, 2019 by dbminn

[Twodogs]

Is it just me, or does it look like Romero should be sent back down? Seems like he has gotten shelled and seems to be walking a lot of guys? Like to see him get it going in the right direction again.

[Mike Sixel]

If Romero can't help.....it will be another reminder why trading minor league guys for actual MLB players is maybe a better idea than some here will admit....

 

That said, I have every confidence he'll be a good RP someday. 

[jkcarew]

That said, I have every confidence he'll be a good RP someday. (Romero)

 

I hope so. A year ago the consensus here seemed to be upper end of rotation guy. Seems kind of sudden that I find myself questioning when he’ll be ready for a relief role...any relief role. He’s 24 and counting.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I hope so. A year ago the consensus here seemed to be upper end of rotation guy. Seems kind of sudden that I find myself questioning when he’ll be ready for a relief role...any relief role. He’s 24 and counting.

 

Not everyone shared that consensus, but I'm trying not to post every negative take I have.....

 

Like I said, I expect him to be at least a good RP.....

[Vanimal46]

Romero sent to AAA today. Now what? Doesn't he still need innings (ideally starter innings) to develop?

[stringer bell]

What does Romero need? Confidence? Relief experience? Or just more innings? I suspect it is confidence and a month or less of success in Triple A will be just the ticket.

[TheLeviathan]

I say keep him in the rotation, work on getting a better third pitch.

[Jham]

His numbers never really matched his stuff.. or his other numbers. .. basically, I've come to the conclusion that if your stuff can't strike out minor leaguers at 10+/9ip you probably don't have that great of stuff. Doubly so for guys like Romero who give up fair numbers of hits and walks. That's why I don't understand why we use k's/9ip rather than k%. If you're consistently facing extra batters, you should be getting more k's. To me, Romero profiles as a back end starter/primary competent reliever. Not so much an ace or shut down guy.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

So your argument is that it is a mental thing when he pitches too often or he is physically breaking down? You would think that his velocity/Movement would reflect some sort of change on a month to month change if he was physically affected by his workload. His innings per month isn't really supporting a drastically lower workload. More rest days but longer outings. Would this disqualify him from any sort of defined closer role if you were running the team?

 

In 2017 Pressly pitched 9 innings in april, 9 innings in May. You call this overworked.

He pitched 11.2 in July, 16 in July, 11.2 in August. You call this a lower workload.

I'm going out on a limb here and saying that he worked on something or had a wake up call with the June demotion to AAA.

 

2016 also show no signs of overworked in an innings per month standing. Certainly doesn't seem like less equals more. Had he thrown 2/3 of an inning more in June would he have lost that 4 point improvement?

April 14.1 innings 3.14ERA

May 14.1 - 6.28 ERA

June 13.2 - 1.98 ERA

July 11.2 - 3.09 ERA

Aug 12.2 - 3.55 ERA

Sept 8.2 - 4.15 ERA

 

We are over thinking what Ryan Pressly himself has told us is the a result of Houston coaching staff.

it’s not number of appearances. It’s rate. Appearances or pitches over time. Time is the constant and as RB pointed out, the key to maximizing quality is finding the sweet spot for individual pitchers of rate of pitches over time that they can throw the most highest quality pitches over the constant.

 

No two people are the same. Some throw 100 every 5 days, some throw 60 every 3 days. Some throw 30 every other day, some throw 45 two out of 5 days, etc.

 

That’s where your analysis comes in. Chart the metrics on where your leading indicators (velocity, spin rate, swinging strike rate, et al) drop off. Rather than defing your pitching capacity based on something arbitrary like “role” or not defining your capacity and rely on pitchers based on necessity, define your pitching capacity based on the pitchers performance.

[Twodogs]

Duensing just became available I believe.