Caesars Palace Releases Over/Under Win Numbers

[BK432]

https://twitter.com/The_Junkyard/status/1082776429782155264

 

Saving you the click, Twins are listed at 84. Which I think is totally fair right now, but it surprised me. Figured Vegas would have them lower.

 

Would you take the over or the under? Why?

[Vanimal46]

Same range they've been in since 2016. Still haven't acquired a player or 2 to take them above the 77-85 win threshold, sadly. Sucks that they're perpetually stuck in the middle.

 

I'll take the over and say 86 wins right now. Buxton and Sano can't possibly have as worse of a season than they did in 2018.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Same range they've been in since 2016. Still haven't acquired a player or 2 to take them above the 77-85 win threshold, sadly. Sucks that they're perpetually stuck in the middle.

I'll take the over and say 86 wins right now. Buxton and Sano can't possibly have as worse of a season than they did in 2018.

 

This is where I don't agree. Schoop and Cruz are pretty big upgrades over their 78 win counterparts, and progression to the mean for Sano and Buxton will account for a lot as well. Those guys can still be bad and be combined several wins better than last year... 

 

I'd bet the over if I were a betting man. 

[Vanimal46]

This is where I don't agree. Schoop and Cruz are pretty big upgrades over their 78 win counterparts, and progression to the mean for Sano and Buxton will account for a lot as well. Those guys can still be bad and be combined several wins better than last year...

 

I'd bet the over if I were a betting man.

Cruz is a significant upgrade, yes. Dozier was projected to be quite good at this time last year but obviously it didn't work out.

[Riverbrian]

Blue Jays, Orioles, Tigers, Royals, White Sox, Rangers, Mariners and Angels all have serious question marks.

 

A’s and Rays are not slam dunks to repeat last years success.

 

Indians are currently a significant downgrade on paper from last year.

 

That’s 11 teams with holes. Lots of teams are going to lose. Somebody has to pick up wins on the other side. I see no reason it can’t be the Twins.

[bird]

Last year's pen coughed up a ton of games. Part of that was on Molitor and Guardado IMO, so if they DO add a premier RP to help May, Rogers, Romero, Parker, and Reed, I think this factor alone is huge. If Sano and Buxton are good but not great, and given a full year of Polanco, I think the additions of Schoop, Cruz, and even Cron would force me to take the over on 84 wins.

[markos]

 

This is where I don't agree. Schoop and Cruz are pretty big upgrades over their 78 win counterparts, and progression to the mean for Sano and Buxton will account for a lot as well. Those guys can still be bad and be combined several wins better than last year... 

 

I'd bet the over if I were a betting man. 

While I mostly agree with the first part (particularly Cruz), I disagree with the second. Despite Sano's and Buxton's troubles, the Twins managed respectable performance at CF and 3B last year because the trio of Cave/Kepler/Grossman managed to keep both CF and RF basically average, and Escobar was above-average at 3B while he was there. So the Twins won't be get additional value over 2018 unless Buxton and Sano are above-average performers.

[Twins33]

If they add no one else I was thinking 83 wins, so under.

[blindeke]

Over!

[Doomtints]

I will take the under until ownership does more than the barest minimum. If the clubhouse atmosphere still sucks, the team will still suck.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Cruz is a significant upgrade, yes. Dozier was projected to be quite good at this time last year but obviously it didn't work out.

 

yeah, he was... well... terrible... and we still won 78 games. You have to come up with 6 games for a push. I don't expect 5 WAR players out of Sano and Buxton, but it won't take a lot of positive regression with the two of them to account for a good chunk of those 6 games.

 

The other thing is that the team is young. Most of the guys on it are likely to improve more than the regress.

 

That and the division is getting weaker. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I will be the first to say it.     Over.     90 wins      .Wait, wait, did I just type that? It must be getting close to the time of pitchers and catchers reporting, I must have gotten my tickets to the Twins vs. Rays opening game of Spring Training at Ft. Myers in the mail yesterday. Oh no! It's happening again. I'm suffering from "spring training over optimism fever" Well this year I am right. I think..

[KirbyDome89]

 

yeah, he was... well... terrible... and we still won 78 games. You have to come up with 6 games for a push. I don't expect 5 WAR players out of Sano and Buxton, but it won't take a lot of positive regression with the two of them to account for a good chunk of those 6 games.

 

The other thing is that the team is young. Most of the guys on it are likely to improve more than the regress.

 

That and the division is getting weaker. 

Isn't expecting improvement from players based on age, or expecting everything that went right for some guys in 18' to continue to go right in 19' a fallacy in the same way that expecting other negative trends (win-loss record in one run games, Buxton, Sano, ect...) to continue this season as well? It's a nit pick, but I think we see areas of easy improvement much more clearly than areas of regression. 

 

I'd probably take the over just based on how bad KC, Detroit, and (hopefully) the Sox will be, but it's far from a slam dunk. 

 

[TheLeviathan]

I take the under, but not by much.

 

Sign some relievers and you might convince me to go over.

[RatherBeGolfing]

 

.

That’s 11 teams with holes. Lots of teams are going to lose. Somebody has to pick up wins on the other side. I see no reason it can’t be the Twins.

 

Because we also have lots of holes.

 

[Riverbrian]

Because we also have lots of holes.

It’s gonna be a Holey War!

[RatherBeGolfing]

 

It’s gonna be a Holey War!

 

Battle of the "who can be less bad than the other"

[gunnarthor]

It's the right range but it again shows how much the FO and ownership could have helped this team if they had gone after Machado. 

[Squirrel]

It's the right range but it again shows how much the FO and ownership could have helped this team if they had gone after Machado.

 

I 2nd that ... and 3rd it, and 4th it, and 5th it ...

 

Unfortunately, that was never gonna happen, but not because they couldn’t have.

[scottz]

Over and over and over. That's 87 wins, gang.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I’ll take the over because I don’t expect to see Baldelli manage April/May games like it’s the middle of October, leaving more space for guys like Reed and Hildenberger to contribute for an entire season instead of crashing and burning 30-40 appearances into their seasons.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Isn't expecting improvement from players based on age, or expecting everything that went right for some guys in 18' to continue to go right in 19' a fallacy in the same way that expecting other negative trends (win-loss record in one run games, Buxton, Sano, ect...) to continue this season as well? It's a nit pick, but I think we see areas of easy improvement much more clearly than areas of regression. 

 

I'd probably take the over just based on how bad KC, Detroit, and (hopefully) the Sox will be, but it's far from a slam dunk. 

 

that's fair, but it's not like there were a ton of players that had career years last year. Gibson... sure. Berrios is probably too young to be considered having a career year. Rosie has done this two years now. Biggest loss I see is the half season of Escobar that we won't get and really don't have a replacement for.  

[Riverbrian]

I’ll take the over because I don’t expect to see Baldelli manage April/May games like it’s the middle of October, leaving more space for guys like Reed and Hildenberger to contribute for an entire season instead of crashing and burning 30-40 appearances into their seasons.

Amen

[KirbyDome89]

 

that's fair, but it's not like there were a ton of players that had career years last year. Gibson... sure. Berrios is probably too young to be considered having a career year. Rosie has done this two years now. Biggest loss I see is the half season of Escobar that we won't get and really don't have a replacement for.  

If I were betting on which direction Berrios moves my money would be on up. I think the second half of last season is more who Rosario is rather than the first half, which is still a valuable player. 

 

Escobar leaving hurts. Cave likely won't continue 19' the way he started 18'. I've been a staunch Gibson critic; I don't think we see the first half of 17' version again, but it certainly wouldn't shock me if he was less than what we saw to start last season either. 

 

You'd think Buxton and Sano couldn't contribute less than they did last season, but we're also banking on Schoop turning things around and Cron being his 18' version rather than his 17' self. Who knows what'll happen with the bullpen, or even how it'll look beginning the season. 

 

IMO for as many places as we can point to say there should be improvement or at least consistent production, there's an equal number of spots for things to go south.