Twins projected arb salaries

[puckstopper1]

Is it just me or is anyone else shocked that the Twins only have three players under "regular" contracts for next year - Castro, Reed and Pineada.  Is that possible?  Everyone else is a Option, Buyout, FA or Arb eligible.

 

I guess the good news is that this does provide for a significant amount of flexibility.

[Tomj14]

I am confused on the cut/let go Odorizzi comments.

A 28 year old pitcher with a career ERA a hair below 4, that strikes out about 1 guy an inning.

Had a WAR of 1.6 this year and was 26th in innings pitched in the American league.

Sure he isn't a top of the rotation guy, at this time he is the third best starting pitcher the Twins have, without a replacement. Romero and/or Pineada both could be better than him and hopefully they are but that is no sure thing. None of the minor league guys showed the stuff that they are.

The only way I let him go is because the 9.4 hinders the owners from signing somebody else better (which in my opinion is ridiculous) . He seems like the perfect guy you keep and if him and the Twins are good, win/win. If the Twins are good and he is bad, you slide him into the bullpen, if the Twins are bad and he is good, he is a great trade chip.

[Shaitan]

Much like Punto in years past, he's earning pocket change as far as MLB money goes. A QO is worth like $18m this year. 

 

If he fits the roster is a valid question. I but I could care less if he's paid $4 million a year.

[Major League Ready]

 

I am confused on the cut/let go Odorizzi comments.

A 28 year old pitcher with a career ERA a hair below 4, that strikes out about 1 guy an inning.

Had a WAR of 1.6 this year and was 26th in innings pitched in the American league.

Sure he isn't a top of the rotation guy, at this time he is the third best starting pitcher the Twins have, without a replacement. Romero and/or Pineada both could be better than him and hopefully they are but that is no sure thing. None of the minor league guys showed the stuff that they are.

The only way I let him go is because the 9.4 hinders the owners from signing somebody else better (which in my opinion is ridiculous) . He seems like the perfect guy you keep and if him and the Twins are good, win/win. If the Twins are good and he is bad, you slide him into the bullpen, if the Twins are bad and he is good, he is a great trade chip.

 

Fangraphs list his WAR at 2.6. Was the 1.6 a typo or does another source list him at 1.6? Regardless, his track record is a WAR of 2-3. Why cut him until one of our prospects proves they are ready unless you get a FA that is significantly better and those are in very short supply.

[beckmt]

 

Fangraphs list his WAR at 2.6. Was the 1.6 a typo or does another source list him at 1.6? Regardless, his track record is a WAR of 2-3. Why cut him until one of our prospects proves they are ready unless you get a FA that is significantly better and those are in very short supply.

Let's do this by the numbers.

1.  Is he better than any of Cleveland's top 4 starters.  Answer - No

2.  Should he be in a playoff Rotation - Answer No

 

He needs to be signed as a backup option, but Twins will need to do better if they wish to beat Cleveland in 2019.  If this is a sort them out year then Oderizzi is fine, but there are several mid to better level FA's this year, Twins need to find one or two of them.

[old nurse]

 

Let's do this by the numbers.

1.  Is he better than any of Cleveland's top 4 starters.  Answer - No

2.  Should he be in a playoff Rotation - Answer No

 

He needs to be signed as a backup option, but Twins will need to do better if they wish to beat Cleveland in 2019.  If this is a sort them out year then Oderizzi is fine, but there are several mid to better level FA's this year, Twins need to find one or two of them.

So where are the Twins going to find 2 SP that have ERAs in the 2 range? Add to that 2 more in the low 3 range.  Berrios might develop into that. Romero and Gonsalves down the road, but not for 2019.

[alarp33]

 

Let's do this by the numbers.

1.  Is he better than any of Cleveland's top 4 starters.  Answer - No

2.  Should he be in a playoff Rotation - Answer No

 

He needs to be signed as a backup option, but Twins will need to do better if they wish to beat Cleveland in 2019.  If this is a sort them out year then Oderizzi is fine, but there are several mid to better level FA's this year, Twins need to find one or two of them.

 

So there is not room on the roster for anyone who is not "better than Cleveland's top 4 starters"? Yikes, I hope Berrios is ready to pitch 700 innings next year with those qualifiers. 

[beckmt]

 

So where are the Twins going to find 2 SP that have ERAs in the 2 range? Add to that 2 more in the low 3 range.  Berrios might develop into that. Romero and Gonsalves down the road, but not for 2019.

Depends on the money you want to spend.  They will have to be FA signings with the view of Pineda, Oderizzi  and maybe Gibson will be gone at the end of 2019.  Twins offense could be better than Cleveland's if the players develop and hit more than they did this year.  Bullpen will also be better than Cleveland's as do not see Cleveland spending a huge amount to fix the pen.

[beckmt]

 

So where are the Twins going to find 2 SP that have ERAs in the 2 range? Add to that 2 more in the low 3 range.  Berrios might develop into that. Romero and Gonsalves down the road, but not for 2019.

 

With the changes the ERA's of the starters will have to be in the mid to upper threes to compete.

[markos]

 

Kinda curious as to what kind of track record mlbtraderumors has for this. Kepler and Sano seem pretty high for two guys that haven’t done much. Sano at his best in 2017 was a 2.5 bWAR. He was a train wreck this year. Kepler was 2.0 in 2017 and 2.8 in 2018. I was figuring about $2.25 mil or so for each.

mlbtraderumors have put a lot of work into their arbitration model. The brains behind the model, Matt Swartz, is a PhD economist that has done consulting work for MLB clubs and is well-respected within the baseball analytics community.

 

Last's years estimates followed by actual for the Twins:

Twins (7)

Eduardo Escobar – $4.9MM v $4.85MM
Kyle Gibson – $5.3MM v $4.2MM
Ryan Pressly – $1.6MM v $1.6MM
Ehire Adrianza – $1.0MM v $1.0MM
Robbie Grossman – $2.4MM v $2.0MM
Trevor May – $600K - $650K

 

They were off by about $1MM on Gibson and $400K with Grossman, but otherwise nailed the contracts. Overall, I'd say that is pretty solid. Probably within +/- 10%.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Let's do this by the numbers.

1.  Is he better than any of Cleveland's top 4 starters.  Answer - No

2.  Should he be in a playoff Rotation - Answer No

 

He needs to be signed as a backup option, but Twins will need to do better if they wish to beat Cleveland in 2019.  If this is a sort them out year then Oderizzi is fine, but there are several mid to better level FA's this year, Twins need to find one or two of them.

 

It's probably worth noting that he finished pretty strong. Perhaps he figured something out and might end up being better than a 2.6 WAR guy...

 

That said, I'm not sure you throw away a guy who could reasonably be a 2-3 WAR guy either... Agreed that if you can acquire something better, by all means do so, but these types of starters don't exactly grow on trees either.

[Tom Froemming]

 

I would not tender Grossman either but I do think he will be projected to have a better OPS next year than either Cave or certainly Wade.

I think the Twins need to seek a clear upgrade and that player isn’t on the roster.

This is the direction I'm leaning right now as well. If you let Robbie go, you need to replace him with a better bat, and one that's proven it in the majors. If you non-tender Grossman with the objective of letting it ride with internal options, you're taking an unnecessary risk. And to everyone thinking $4 million is a lot of money, you need to remove your glasses that have Pohlad-colored lenses, lol.

 

Grossman was the Twins' best hitter in the second half, his 128 wRC+ after the break was tied for 33rd among the 165 AL hitters (top 20 percent) with at least 100 PAs and his defense was better than 2017 -- not good, but better. Meanwhile, Cave had a 33.0 K% to go with just a 5.8 BB% and Wade hit .229/.337/.336 over 294 PAs in Triple A.

 

Bird in hand vs. two in bush.

[yarnivek1972]

mlbtraderumors have put a lot of work into their arbitration model. The brains behind the model, Matt Swartz, is a PhD economist that has done consulting work for MLB clubs and is well-respected within the baseball analytics community.

 

Last's years estimates followed by actual for the Twins:

Twins (7)

Eduardo Escobar – $4.9MM v $4.85MM

Kyle Gibson – $5.3MM v $4.2MM

Ryan Pressly – $1.6MM v $1.6MM

Ehire Adrianza – $1.0MM v $1.0MM

Robbie Grossman – $2.4MM v $2.0MM

Trevor May – $600K - $650K

 

They were off by about $1MM on Gibson and $400K with Grossman, but otherwise nailed the contracts. Overall, I'd say that is pretty solid. Probably within +/- 10%.

I looked at their own info. They say 65% are within 10% which is pretty good, but certainly not ironclad. I think Sano getting sent down and performing so terribly when he was up seriously hurts his arb award. The Twins would be wise to go the distance on that one. A large part of Kepler’s WAR number is because he played a lot of CF last year. Which is certainly valid but at a hearing he’s going to be compared with corner OFers. That will hurt him also.

[nicksaviking]

Since he isn't good on defense, he has no power and his only strong baseball skill is working a count I'd be pretty confident that the team could non-tender Grossman and sign him back in February for $1M or even a MiLB deal if for some reason they get an inkling. 

 

If on the off chance another team actually wants to sign Grossman for a larger deal sooner, well that doesn't seem like a loss that couldn't be overcome.

[Thrylos]

 

So where are the Twins going to find 2 SP that have ERAs in the 2 range? Add to that 2 more in the low 3 range.  Berrios might develop into that. Romero and Gonsalves down the road, but not for 2019.

 

1. Trade for Mets' number 3 starter (Zach Wheeler; I would not mind their number 1 or 2, btw)

2. Sign Partrick Corrbin

 

With Berrios number 3

Gibson number 4 and 

Pineda/Odorizzi number 5

 

You got a competitive rotation

[Mike Sixel]

If they aren't trying to seriously win next year, they should deal Gibson for sure. He'll net a legit player or two. I'd prefer they add some real talent, but if they don't, I would hope they deal Gibson and really do the rebuild.

[old nurse]

 

1. Trade for Mets' number 3 starter (Zach Wheeler; I would not mind their number 1 or 2, btw)

2. Sign Partrick Corrbin

 

With Berrios number 3

Gibson number 4 and 

Pineda/Odorizzi number 5

 

You got a competitive rotation

The comment I replied to led me to believe what was wanted was a rotation better than what Cleveland has, not maybe competitive. Wheeler is a fine pitcher. Corbin either had a breakout season or a career year.  Either way it still does not get you pitchers better than the top of Cleveland's rotation.

 

The kicker to signing Corbin would be the domino effect in Arizona. If the Twins are not on his limited no trade list it does set up some interesting possibilities if the Twins were in a go for it mode. One year of an All Star 1B and an true Ace.

[Mr. Brooks]

Unless the Twins are getting another $50 million check from BAMTec this year (they aren't), payroll is not going to be as high next year.

 

It's well documented that they top out payroll at 52% of revenue.

[snepp]

 

This is the direction I'm leaning right now as well. If you let Robbie go, you need to replace him with a better bat, and one that's proven it in the majors. If you non-tender Grossman with the objective of letting it ride with internal options, you're taking an unnecessary risk. And to everyone thinking $4 million is a lot of money, you need to remove your glasses that have Pohlad-colored lenses, lol.

 

Grossman was the Twins' best hitter in the second half, his 128 wRC+ after the break was tied for 33rd among the 165 AL hitters (top 20 percent) with at least 100 PAs and his defense was better than 2017 -- not good, but better. Meanwhile, Cave had a 33.0 K% to go with just a 5.8 BB% and Wade hit .229/.337/.336 over 294 PAs in Triple A.

 

Bird in hand vs. two in bush.

 

And at $4 million, if someone forces him out later (say Wade) through their performance, you can either deal him for a ptbnl, or just outright release him and eat the rest. That's not the kind of money that *should* restrict any roster decisions in a year with so much available payroll available.

[Mike Sixel]

 

And at $4 million, if someone forces him out later (say Wade) through their performance, you can either deal him for a ptbnl, or just outright release him and eat the rest. That's not the kind of money that *should* restrict any roster decisions in a year with so much available payroll available.

 

How does someone beat him out, if they are in the minors, and he's in the majors? 

[snepp]

 

How does someone beat him out, if they are in the minors, and he's in the majors? 

 

Is it not possible for someone tearing up the high minors to replace a fringe guy on the majors roster that isn't carrying his weight?

 

Is it some outlandish possibility? I guess I'm missing the point of the question, it happens all the time.

[Winston Smith]

This is off topic but does anyone here know how much Int. Pool money the Twins have?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Is it not possible for someone tearing up the high minors to replace a fringe guy on the majors roster that isn't carrying his weight?

 

Is it some outlandish possibility? I guess I'm missing the point of the question, it happens all the time.

 

When did it last happen in MN? Maybe this FO is different but maybe not....

 

It's just easier to let him go, and not worry about the roster spot at all. IMO, of course.

[Mike Sixel]

 

This is off topic but does anyone here know how much Int. Pool money the Twins have?

 

Not enough to sign either Cuban worth signing at this point....

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-the-mesa-gaston-workout/

 

[yarnivek1972]

When did it last happen in MN? Maybe this FO is different but maybe not....

 

It's just easier to let him go, and not worry about the roster spot at all. IMO, of course.

Last time I can recall a midseason minor leaguer replacing a failing veteran was Jason Bartlett replacing Juan Castro in 2006. Castro was traded for a nobody. The Twins, meanwhile, after sending him and Tony Batista packing went on one of the most inpressive stretches of baseball in MLB history. They played something close to .700 ball from like the first week of June on.

 

 

Edit: Yeah. The Twins were walked off in Seattle on June 7 to drop to 25-33. They then went 71-33 the rest of the way.

[Winston Smith]

 

Not enough to sign either Cuban worth signing at this point....

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-the-mesa-gaston-workout/

I was thinking more of trading some of it to the teams trying to sign them.

[old nurse]

 

Last time I can recall a midseason minor leaguer replacing a failing veteran was Jason Bartlett replacing Juan Castro in 2006. Castro was traded for a nobody. The Twins, meanwhile, after sending him and Tony Batista packing went on one of the most inpressive stretches of baseball in MLB history. They played something close to .700 ball from like the first week of June on.


Edit: Yeah. The Twins were walked off in Seattle on June 7 to drop to 25-33. They then went 71-33 the rest of the way.

The problem is that there really hasn't been a prospect "tearing up" AAA that was not called up. To replace the struggling vet you need to have someone that could do something.

[Physics Guy]

Assuming the Twins sign a SS/2B and protection for 3B, it would come down to Grossman or Austin. I prefer to give Austin the chance.

[Rosterman]

$80 million payroll with all of this. Still leaves the Twins with $40-50 million to spend, though.

 

Have to ask...who from this list should be extended beyond...in other words buy them out into the free agent years. That is step #1. (Rosario, Gibson).

 

#2 is, who is still a bargain, fills a hole, and could be flipped during the season> Odorizzi fits that category. Maybe Adrianza.

 

#3...who do we pay a percentage of the salary for a spring training looksee of alternative plan if nothing is done in the off-season (Grossman). 

 

Yes, you look at the list and think "how much would they get from another team, any team, if they were a free agent." Which reflects on the quality of players the Twins currently roster, I guess.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I was thinking more of trading some of it to the teams trying to sign them.

 

Ah, got it.