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Trade Deadline Discussion Thread

diehardtwinsfan

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Otto von Ballpark All-Star

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

BTW, the board, on Fangraphs, is up to date live.....

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=&type=&pos=&team=min

 

Seven new players in the top 30.....two in the top 20 (IIRC)......not bad, not great, just good.

Thanks for the link!

 

FWIW, they are all 40 FV except Celestino and Duran who are "40+". We already had 18 guys at 40 FV before the trades, plus 13 better.

 

I still think we are pushing up against a law of diminishing returns on stockpiling that many 40 FV prospects. (Not that I expected better from these trades.)

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

Thanks for the link!

FWIW, they are all 40 FV except Celestino and Duran who are "40+". We already had 18 guys at 40 FV before the trades, plus 13 better.

I still think we are pushing up against a law of diminishing returns on stockpiling that many 40 FV prospects. (Not that I expected better from these trades.)

 

I did try to ask that question today.....but was late to the chat....I'll try harder!

 

I wonder what the ratio of 40FV guys it takes to actually get a 45 in return (I doubt that has ever happened.....).

SwainZag Cedar Rapids Kernels

SwainZag

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted

I'm so shocked at the outrage by so many people here.  Everyone knew Dozier was having a rough year.  Everyone knew the market for 2B is a fickle one.  Seemingly barely anyone wanted him back next year.  Why the outrage with the package coming back?  I like Dozier as much as the next guy but $18M next year could be so much better well spent next year, especially with the Twins MI depth.  Outrage for Belisle not getting traded, really?  Did anyone actually think anyone wanted him?   Rodney has not been a bad pitcher for the Twins.  Him making $4.25M next year is on the cheap.  If the Twins aren't contending next year and he pitches like he did this season, it certainly makes him a trade candidate.  Unless anyone can predict he falls off the table, what's not to like?

 

Every single player that has been traded outside of Pressly was an up and coming free agent.  Escobar and Dozier were the only players with over 1.0 WAR on the season.  The guys traded were ages: 35, 32, 31, 31, 29, 29.  I understand we wanted younger, better players but let's look at big picture.  We have all wanted to see some younger players.  25% of the roster from last week is gone.

 

I will miss BD and EE, but in all likely hood they were both gone at seasons end.  Duke and Lynn were examples of what we have been wanting the FO to do for years.  Sign guys to 1 year deals and trade them at the deadline.  Pressly was a Rule V guy they turned into prospects. Maybe I am seeing too much silver lining here.

 

nicksaviking MVP

nicksaviking

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted

The Brewers released, not DFA'd, Brad Miller. If we must go with a veteran 2B, I'd prefer the Twins pick him up and dump Forsythe.

 

Edit: Huh, BBR says he is still controlled for one more year (should a team want to).

jorgenswest St Paul Saints

jorgenswest

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

I did try to ask that question today.....but was late to the chat....I'll try harder!

 

I wonder what the ratio of 40FV guys it takes to actually get a 45 in return (I doubt that has ever happened.....).

One of the reasons it would is impossible is because the people doing the ratings don’t see them play enough and rely heavily on their draft position or international money and slash stat data. It takes a few full years in the minors and some AA before the valuations start to be reliable.

 

I would put no stock in any low A player’s FV or public ranking in system or overall. A skilled scout watching a handful of games would have a much more reliable assessment.

 

How reliable are rankings or FV numbers for Duran, Maciel and Celestino? If they aren’t reliable how would we gather enough data to answer the question above?

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

One of the reasons it would is impossible is because the people doing the ratings don’t see them play enough and rely heavily on their draft position or international money and slash stat data. It takes a few full years in the minors and some AA before the valuations start to be reliable.

I would put no stock in any low A player’s FV or public ranking in system or overall. A skilled scout watching a handful of games would have a much more reliable assessment.

How reliable are rankings or FV numbers for Duran, Maciel and Celestino? If they aren’t reliable how would we gather enough data to answer the question above?

 

where do you think they get the rankings? And, I don't have access to "skilled scouts" that work for teams.......

 

As for how reliable they are, more than we usually give them credit for. The top ranked guys tend to produce a ton of WAR, relative to the bottom ranked ones......with outliers occurring. Those outliers occur for teams too, otherwise you'd never have a lopsided wtf trade, ever.

 

So, feel free to ignore anyone online sources offering free opinions on players, I find them interesting.

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

Every trade involved a potential starting pitcher and an overachieving position player.

 

I am hoping they move some of these pitchers to RP, and see if they pick up speed and can be useful. IMO, the Twins have waited way too long on some starters to do this, over the years. Hoping this FO is different.

TheLeviathan MVP

TheLeviathan

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Really solid deadline for the Twins.  Hopefully one or two of these players will really help the club in the long-term.  Time to get a good look at some guys these last two months and hopefully gear up for a fun offseason.

jorgenswest St Paul Saints

jorgenswest

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

I am hoping they move some of these pitchers to RP, and see if they pick up speed and can be useful. IMO, the Twins have waited way too long on some starters to do this, over the years. Hoping this FO is different.

The question interests me. Is there an optimal time to move a pitcher? There are plenty of examples of guys like Chapman that started minor league games the year they started in the majors. On the other end of the spectrum there are examples of guys like Kimbrel that never started a game in the minors.

 

I guess I would want the Twins to give guys like Alcala and Duran every opportunity for success as a starter.

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

The question interests me. Is there an optimal time to move a pitcher? There are plenty of examples of guys like Chapman that started minor league games the year they started in the majors. On the other end of the spectrum there are examples of guys like Kimbrel that never started a game in the minors.

I guess I would want the Twins to give guys like Alcala and Duran every opportunity for success as a starter.

 

Yup, we  can't really know......

 

but, I'm not interested in tons of number 5 starters, which is what the Twins had in the minors most recently. I have no idea if some of them could have been RPs.....to me, Taylor Rodgers is the perfect example. He was never going to be a legit MLB starter.

 

I don't know enough about the two you mention, yet, to have a firm opinion. But, they don't scream 4 pitch mix guys with really good stuff.

NewClearHarley Prep Ball

NewClearHarley

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

 

The Brewers released, not DFA'd, Brad Miller. If we must go with a veteran 2B, I'd prefer the Twins pick him up and dump Forsythe.

 

Edit: Huh, BBR says he is still controlled for one more year (should a team want to).

I like Brad Miller but as a second baseman, he makes a good first baseman

luckylager Draft Eligible

luckylager

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

I like the return the Twins have received in all of their trades over the last couple days.  Nothing to make one say "Wow", but maybe some players that will be major league roster worthy eventually. After so many TR seasons of standing pat, I appreciate the effort to get something in return for eventual free agents.  At this point, I've put my disappointment for this season behind me. I'm ready for the auditions for next season. 

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

Looks like they forgot Alcala? Who I assume would rank highest of all prospects the Twins received

 

Yup, just noticed that....though what was the timing of that? They forgot another player also....

Otto von Ballpark All-Star

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Looks like they forgot Alcala? Who I assume would rank highest of all prospects the Twins received

They did forget Alcala on that list, but they have him on the Twins list and he is only 29th. But the numbering is a litte weird. He is behind Duran, Rijo, and maybe Smeltzer who has a #25 but so does Moya. So there could be an error to sort out there too.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018updated&type=0&pos=all&team=min

Brock Beauchamp GOAT

Brock Beauchamp

Site Manager
Posted
Posted

Thanks for the link!

 

FWIW, they are all 40 FV except Celestino and Duran who are "40+". We already had 18 guys at 40 FV before the trades, plus 13 better.

 

I still think we are pushing up against a law of diminishing returns on stockpiling that many 40 FV prospects. (Not that I expected better from these trades.)

Yeah, I’ll be really interested to see if there’s an off-season plan here. Depth is good but too much depth is a real thing in the minors. At some point, these guys will need to hit the 40-man roster and there’s not enough room for even half of them.

 

The Twins system isn’t an inch deep and a mile wide but it’s getting kinda close to it.

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