Twins demote Romero

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You can't just look at the 1st year by itself... It will be cumulative over 4 years and by the time 2021 rolls around, we will probably have some long term commitments... if we fancy ourselves contenders. 

This front office has too many smart people in it to worry about the arbitration number of a starting pitcher three years from now.

 

If the starting pitcher is still healthy, you're happy about it. If the starting pitcher is so good that you owe him a pile of cash through arbitration, you're thrilled about it.

 

People are really overthinking this.

[jtkoupal]

 

The only hope for sanity is they will bring up a bullpen arm for tomorrow’s game, then DFA or DL Belisle for a starter to replace Romero. That still leaves Odorizzi in the rotation for reasons that are a complete mystery given his ERA has been over 9 for his last five or six starts. Today was not an aberration, this is the way he’s pitched for a while now.

Odorizzi is a long reliever. He has proven that.

 

He is useless once he sees the lineup for the third time, largely due to the pitch counts he accumulates. He has been that way his whole career. He is the perfect pitcher to use for innings 3-7. Start the game with a reliever, bring Odo in, then mix & match from there as needed.

[Riverbrian]

 

 

 

This front office has too many smart people in it to worry about the arbitration number of a starting pitcher three years from now.

 

If the starting pitcher is still healthy, you're happy about it. If the starting pitcher is so good that you owe him a pile of cash through arbitration, you're thrilled about it.

 

People are really overthinking this.

 

I maybe overthinking this but thanks for indulging me anyway. 

 

It sure seems like a lot of prospects come up in June. 

 

 

[alarp33]

 

You can't just look at the 1st year by itself... It will be cumulative over 4 years and by the time 2021 rolls around, we will probably have some long term commitments... if we fancy ourselves contenders. 

 

In 2021 even if he was Super 2, and even if he is elite in 2019+2020, he's going be making what, $4.5 or $5 million?  

 

David Price made around $48 million during his 4 arbitration years and he finished 2nd and won a Cy Young.  I think this is the record for Arb money for a pitcher

 

I can't find a good comp for him, but Dallas Keuchel who won a Cy but was hardly at the Price level throughout his 6 years is going to make around $30 million his final 4 seasons of control.  

 

$18 million spread over 4 years, for a team that will probably have $500 million in salaries those 4 seasons kind of is chump change

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It sure seems like a lot of prospects come up in June. 

Outside of Super Two status, that makes sense, doesn't it? A prospect gets off to a hot start but the front office wants to give them more than a month to show if it's sustainable. So maybe they stretch it to two months... and there's June.

 

Or maybe the prospect gets off to a rough start and stumbles for 2-3 weeks. Then they turn around and mash for six weeks... and there's June.

 

A starting player goes down for two weeks in April. That injury stretches to four weeks and the front office needs a longer term solution... and there's June.

[Riverbrian]

 

Outside of Super Two status, that makes sense, doesn't it? A prospect gets off to a hot start but the front office wants to give them more than a month to show if it's sustainable. So maybe they stretch it to two months... and there's June.

 

Or maybe the prospect gets off to a rough start and stumbles for 2-3 weeks. Then they turn around and mash for six weeks... and there's June.

 

A starting player goes down for two weeks in April. That injury stretches to four weeks and the front office needs a longer term solution... and there's June.

 

You can make a lot of months sound appropriate with that method. 

 

It's nuanced... I get that. The Nationals probably didn't want to call up Juan Soto this quickly but they got over ran with injuries so up he came earlier than planned but the Nats can't worry about Super Two or anything like that this year because they are contenders this year and Soto was the best choice and now that he is helping them win with some impressive day after day performance. They can't send him back down which I'd be willing to bet they probably assumed they would have to when the players started come back off the DL. 

 

The White Sox who are not contenders will still have to explain to me and you... Exactly why Eloy Jimenez is still in the minors raking steadily before I walk away from the possibility. Couldn't Eloy Jimenez be someone who could use a little seasoning for a better 2019. The White Sox want that extra year... which they have and they want to avoid Super Two. 

 

I'm saying the Twins are now in White Sox non-contending status for 2018 so someone like Romero becomes a future consideration more than a right now consideration and he looks like someone who could matter in the future. Not saying he's a lock but a possibility that can't be written off based on his stuff.  

[Riverbrian]

 

In 2021 even if he was Super 2, and even if he is elite in 2019+2020, he's going be making what, $4.5 or $5 million?  

 

David Price made around $48 million during his 4 arbitration years and he finished 2nd and won a Cy Young.  I think this is the record for Arb money for a pitcher

 

I can't find a good comp for him, but Dallas Keuchel who won a Cy but was hardly at the Price level throughout his 6 years is going to make around $30 million his final 4 seasons of control.  

 

$18 million spread over 4 years, for a team that will probably have $500 million in salaries those 4 seasons kind of is chump change

 

That 5 million matters with a heavily budgeted franchise like the Twins or the A's or the Reds. Especially when you consider that we will have potentially 5 high dollar Arb 3 guys in 2021 and a couple of potential high dollar Arb 2 guys and a couple of high dollar free agents signed in 2019 and maybe a couple of mistake salaries that have to be eaten like most years. Extensions, quality bullpen arms, A decent starting 2nd baseman can all be acquired for 5 million dollars. That 5 million might be that final piece of the puzzle. We could use the 5 million dollars in a trade for the 74th pick in the draft.  

 

This is Minnesota... we can't say... 5 million is no big deal... we all know that it is around these parts. 

 

[old nurse]

Bad starts turning into good starts could mean the pitcher is figuring it out.  Good starts followed by a string of bad starts means the league figure the pitcher out and the pitcher has not adjusted or learned.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The White Sox who are not contenders will still have to explain to me and you... Exactly why Eloy Jimenez is still in the minors raking steadily before I walk away from the possibility. Couldn't Eloy Jimenez be someone who could use a little seasoning for a better 2019. The White Sox want that extra year... which they have and they want to avoid Super Two.

Again, you're overthinking this. Jimenez has all of 20 PAs at the AAA level. Obviously, the Sox are taking the approach that they don't want to jump two levels with a 21 year old player. That's really common throughout baseball. Even the mighty Bryce Harper had 84 PAs at AAA before seeing a promotion to Washington.

 

Jimenez can get plenty of seasoning after he accumulates 100-150 PAs at AAA, giving the Sox a better idea whether he's ready to face MLB pitching.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You can make a lot of months sound appropriate with that method. 

That's actually my point. There are loads of ways to get to June, July, or August before seeing a call-up, none of which involve service time or Super Two status.

[Doomtints]

 

This front office has too many smart people in it to worry about the arbitration number of a starting pitcher three years from now.

 

If the starting pitcher is still healthy, you're happy about it. If the starting pitcher is so good that you owe him a pile of cash through arbitration, you're thrilled about it.

 

People are really overthinking this.

 

Exactly. The Twins actually don't want the team to suck. 

[Clear]

Obviously one would hate this outcome with such high expectation this year, (even after what would be considered a pretty good offseason) but I think the production from players like Sano/Buxton/Berrios was really going to have a large bearing on what they were in the market for. Sano and Buxton may never reach the level we expected/hoped them to achieve, it sucks, but it's baseball. I also feel like the FO is more attracted to the players they've selected in the draft or previously signed in FA, which is another reason why after a year like this they're probably (and unfortunately) going to make this team pretty mediocre until we have Lewis/Kirilloff/Graterol up in the majors (quite honestly, just thinking about that 2020 team... it's bright man)

I would bet this has to do with limiting his innings.  I would consider this the first sign of their intentions this year - it's sell time.  We're playing for the future now.

 

[howieramone2]

 

The only hope for sanity is they will bring up a bullpen arm for tomorrow’s game, then DFA or DL Belisle for a starter to replace Romero. That still leaves Odorizzi in the rotation for reasons that are a complete mystery given his ERA has been over 9 for his last five or six starts. Today was not an aberration, this is the way he’s pitched for a while now.

You don't DFA players with trade value. Odorizzi will be pitching in The Show for the next 3-4 years.

[howieramone2]

 

The Twins are far closer to the 4th pick in the draft than to the playoffs.  To that end they could have kept Hughes. 

Trading Hughes was an excellent move.

[howieramone2]

 

The draft pick sent to San Diego was worth more than Huges' salary if you believe in your draft department

They saved 7.25M and received a decent catching prospect for pie-in-the-sky.

[howieramone2]

 

There is no doubt this is going to be a completely different team next year. But while I have absolutely no problem with starting to meld some of the younger MiLB players onto the roster, one thing is inescapable. Either Sano and Buxton live up to their potential or everything is a moot point. They are not the only two players in the universe, but they are the only two that the Twins have access to with this upside. Also, if yet again, the team is going into reset mode with a rebuild mentality, Molitor has to go. Rather than deal with, and discipline the mistakes made by younger players he simply retreats to his security blanket of the stable vets. I would imagine the impetus for Belisle came from Molitor. Regrettably he will still be here through 2019. They will stand on the MOY, injuries and bad luck as a rationale. And next year, even if yet another year goes south on us, you don't want to fire a manager in the middle of the year, not in MN.

By completely different team, I assume you mean all of our best players will be back. Every year in every sport, some team runs into injury trouble.

[laloesch]

I don't like this move.  Romero has struggled a bit as of late, but to earn a demotion?  

[howieramone2]

Romero's rookie debut went pretty well. Now that the book is out on him, time for a little more player development so he can reach his lofty ceiling. Belisle was always a plan C pickup until a deal can be made at the deadline. Board scapegoat or not he pitched very well after 6-15 last season.

 

No one at 1 Twins Way has thrown in the towel. Our players who missed so much time will be back at some point . The key is getting Buxton and Polanco in the lineup everyday. If I recall correctly, the Royals were underperforming in 2104 until the end of the season, when they rallied and saved the GM and managers jobs. Improvement is not always linear.

 

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Trading Hughes was an excellent move.

it was terrible. Bad teams shouldn't give up draft picks.

[howieramone2]

 

it was terrible. Bad teams shouldn't give up draft picks.

Truly a superior move. A good team like our Twins can do a lot with 7.25M in free agency. As you may recall, most on the board predicted 86-92 wins going into this season. We lost our catcher, we lost our SS, we lost our All-Star pitcher. Our 2 brightest stars have missed several months, and Mauer missed over a month. You can rebuild if you want, I know better. 

[Taildragger8791]

 

Truly a superior move. A good team like our Twins can do a lot with 7.25M in free agency. As you may recall, most on the board predicted 86-92 wins going into this season. We lost our catcher, we lost our SS, we lost our All-Star pitcher. Our 2 brightest stars have missed several months, and Mauer missed over a month. You can rebuild if you want, I know better. 

 

That all-star pitcher isn't likely coming back, and those two bright stars have dimmed dramatically. Mauer is on his last legs. Dozier/Morrison are having lost seasons and won't be back next year. These aren't short term setbacks, there are major structural issues with this roster. On the bright side...the pitching is pointing up more than it has in a long time.

 

Edit: There's a good chance that 1B, DH, C, CF, and one of 2B or SS will be problems again next year. That's a lot of holes to fill.

[howieramone2]

 

That all-star pitcher isn't likely coming back, and those two bright stars have dimmed dramatically. Mauer is on his last legs. Dozier/Morrison are having lost seasons and won't be back next year. These aren't short term setbacks, there are major structural issues with this roster. On the bright side...the pitching is pointing up more than it has in a long time.

 

Edit: There's a good chance that 1B, DH, C, CF, and one of 2B or SS will be problems again next year. That's a lot of holes to fill.

There's also a good chance none of them will be problems and only a return to health and the usual tweeking is all that's needed. We aren't the first team in the history of sports that has seen their season derailed by injuries to key players. 

[Tomj14]

 

There's also a good chance none of them will be problems and only a return to health and the usual tweeking is all that's needed. We aren't the first team in the history of sports that has seen their season derailed by injuries to key players. 

I disagree the season was derailed by injuries, the season has been derailed by under performance everybody on offense not named Rosario and Escobar. And the up and downs of the pitching staff beside Berrios, Gibson, and Hildy.

[Tomj14]

The question I have with Romero, are the Twins hoping he goes down and works on some of the things he wasn't doing well with the Twins which could/should cause his numbers to maybe not look so great or are they hoping for him to go down and dominate?

Same question I have for Meija, did he work on things at the beginning of the season and know they are working out, or did he just go back to doing the things that make his numbers look good in AAA to get called up?

[Otto von Ballpark]

That 5 million matters with a heavily budgeted franchise like the Twins or the A's or the Reds. Especially when you consider that we will have potentially 5 high dollar Arb 3 guys in 2021 and a couple of potential high dollar Arb 2 guys and a couple of high dollar free agents signed in 2019 and maybe a couple of mistake salaries that have to be eaten like most years. Extensions, quality bullpen arms, A decent starting 2nd baseman can all be acquired for 5 million dollars. That 5 million might be that final piece of the puzzle. We could use the 5 million dollars in a trade for the 74th pick in the draft.

 

This is Minnesota... we can't say... 5 million is no big deal... we all know that it is around these parts.

That $5 mil figure was assuming Romero is a healthy superstar ace, and it represents less than 4% of our current payroll. Far more likely is something like $2-3 mil, perhaps less than 2% of our payroll.

 

And he is not particularly close to avoiding super 2 -- he'll need at least 30 days. So waiting a day to send him down could be costly.

 

Lastly, no one plays super 2 games with pitchers. I think the only major one to fall just short of super 2 is Gerrit Cole. The Rays didn't bother with Price or Archer, etc.

[Otto von Ballpark]

There's also a good chance none of them will be problems and only a return to health and the usual tweeking is all that's needed.

Sano and Buxton right now represent "the usual tweaking"?

[Riverbrian]

 

That's actually my point. There are loads of ways to get to June, July, or August before seeing a call-up, none of which involve service time or Super Two status.

 

 

That $5 mil figure was assuming Romero is a healthy superstar ace, and it represents less than 4% of our current payroll. Far more likely is something like $2-3 mil, perhaps less than 2% of our payroll.

And he is not particularly close to avoiding super 2 -- he'll need at least 30 days. So waiting a day to send him down could be costly.

Lastly, no one plays super 2 games with pitchers. I think the only major one to fall just short of super 2 is Gerrit Cole. The Rays didn't bother with Price or Archer, etc.

 

I was referring to the possibility that Romero is a healthy superstar ace which is a possibility IMO. He has some plus stuff.

 

However, It's obvious that I'm trying to point at Bigfoot with my service time concerns. 

 

I can't say I'm convinced but I've enjoyed the discussion enough that I will not dismiss the counter point that it is just a big guy walking around in the woods wearing body length fur coat. 

 

 

[USAFChief]

 

I was referring to the possibility that Romero is a healthy superstar ace which is a possibility IMO. He has some plus stuff.

 

However, It's obvious that I'm trying to point at Bigfoot with my service time concerns. 

 

I can't say I'm convinced but I've enjoyed the discussion enough that I will not dismiss the counter point that it is just a big guy walking around in the woods wearing body length fur coat. 

 

Not all that far-fetched, IMO.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

That 5 million matters with a heavily budgeted franchise like the Twins or the A's or the Reds. Especially when you consider that we will have potentially 5 high dollar Arb 3 guys in 2021 and a couple of potential high dollar Arb 2 guys and a couple of high dollar free agents signed in 2019 and maybe a couple of mistake salaries that have to be eaten like most years. Extensions, quality bullpen arms, A decent starting 2nd baseman can all be acquired for 5 million dollars. That 5 million might be that final piece of the puzzle. We could use the 5 million dollars in a trade for the 74th pick in the draft.

 

This is Minnesota... we can't say... 5 million is no big deal... we all know that it is around these parts.

and it’s 5 mil year 1, plus 5 mil plus Arb raise year two, plus 5 mil plus plus Arb raise year 3, AND 5 mil plus plus plus Arb raise year 4. Its more like 30 to 40 mil or more over 4 years (15 mil 4th year of Arb plus 5 mil x3 as Base line) if healthy and decent. If your having conversation about risking Super 2 status, you’ve already got a decent major league pitcher on your hands.

 

In isolation, 8 to 10 mil per season isn’t the end of the world. Hopefully if your farm system is any good, this situation happens every year or two. You could have 3-6 players flirting with Super 2 over the course of several years all accumulating additional payroll that with some careful planning a GM can avoid and use that payroll to fill gaps with free agents.

[Otto von Ballpark]

and it’s 5 mil year 1, plus 5 mil plus Arb raise year two, plus 5 mil plus plus Arb raise year 3, AND 5 mil plus plus plus Arb raise year 4. Its more like 30 to 40 mil or more over 4 years (15 mil 4th year of Arb plus 5 mil x3 as Base line) if healthy and decent. If your having conversation about risking Super 2 status, you’ve already got a decent major league pitcher on your hands.

 

I think this is incorrect, there isn't a multiplier involved. There could be a ripple effect, but that is much lower:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/business/super-two/

 

If a player makes $500,000 for each of his first three seasons and then get’s $3 million in arbitration, his next two arbitration salaries will be based on that $3 million. Maybe he’ll get $6 million and $9 million before hitting free agency. If that same player gets Super Two status, they will make that $3 million and then go through arbitration three more times instead of two, making something like $6 million, $9 million, and $12 million. The difference, for some players, could be more than $10 million based on a few days of service time in their first year.

Even that probably overstates it for most players, because arbitration isn't an automatic raise, it has some basis in performance. If Romero had a down year or missed some time to injury, that would hold back the raise the next year.