Twins demote Romero

[alarp33]

 

and it’s 5 mil year 1, plus 5 mil plus Arb raise year two, plus 5 mil plus plus Arb raise year 3, AND 5 mil plus plus plus Arb raise year 4. Its more like 30 to 40 mil or more over 4 years (15 mil 4th year of Arb plus 5 mil x3 as Base line) if healthy and decent. If your having conversation about risking Super 2 status, you’ve already got a decent major league pitcher on your hands.

 

 

Can you translate? Are you saying a Super 2 player gets $30 to $40 million more than a regular 3 year arb? Or just they can make that total?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I think this is incorrect, there isn't a multiplier involved. There could be a ripple effect, but that is much lower:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/business/super-two/

 

 

Even that probably overstates it for most players, because arbitration isn't an automatic raise, it has some basis in performance. If Romero had a down year or missed some time to injury, that would hold back the raise the next year.

agreed, it’s cumulative not exponential, but Super 2’s start higher and starting pitchers tend to be higher paid. It does all depend on health and performance, but avoiding Super2 status assumes the best case, right?

 

 

 

https://www.amazinavenue.com/2013/3/11/4080186/mets-travis-darnaud-super-two-opening-day

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Can you translate? Are you saying a Super 2 player gets $30 to $40 million more than a regular 3 year arb? Or just they can make that total?

Kyle Gibson’s first Arb settlent was 2.9 mil. Second 5.2 mil, his third is upcoming and he’s having a really good year, he’ll pull down 10 mil in his final year. Total Arb earnings 18 mil roughly

 

Assuming similar performance and health for Romero as a Super 2 would mean starting significantly higher than 2.9 mil, double per the chart I referenced before, plus a 4th year of Arb. I used 5 mil as a starting point, but it could be 6 or more. Keuchel got 7.2 in his first Arb year...

 

5 mil plus 7 mil plus 10 plus 20 is very plausible. Pie in the sky optimism 7 plus 10 plus 15 plus 30 isn’t impossible.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/arbitration-records-starting-pitchers-2.html

[alarp33]

Kyle Gibson’s first Arb settlent was 2.9 mil. Second 5.2 mil, his third is upcoming and he’s having a really good year, he’ll pull down 10 mil in his final year. Total Arb earnings 18 mil roughly

 

Assuming similar performance and health for Romero as a Super 2 would mean starting significantly higher than 2.9 mil, double per the chart I referenced before, plus a 4th year of Arb. I used 5 mil as a starting point, but it could be 6 or more. Keuchel got 7.2 in his first Arb year...

 

5 mil plus 7 mil plus 10 plus 20 is very plausible. Pie in the sky optimism 7 plus 10 plus 15 plus 30 isn’t impossible.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/arbitration-records-starting-pitchers-2.html

I have absolutely no idea how you’re arriving at those numbers. David Price won a CY Young and finished 2nd in one, had over a 21 WAR in his 1st 5 mlb seasons and made under $50 million during his 4 arb years. And you’re pie in the sky optimism is Romero making $15 million more than David Price?

 

Also you are assuming similar performance and health from Romero as Kyle Gibson, but are putting him at $5 million for arb year 1? Price was around $4.3 and had a heck of a better start to his career than Gibson

 

These numbers are not realistic in the least

 

PS: Dallas Keuchel wasn’t a Super 2, so why are you using him as an example for super 2 salaries? He’s in his 3rd and final year of arbitration

[snepp]

Historically super-2 players receive quite a bit less in that first year of arbitration than non-super-2 players do in their first year.

[alarp33]

Historically super-2 players receive quite a bit less in that first year of arbitration than non-super-2 players do in their first year.

Yeah I’m not sure where these numbers are coming from. It’s legit maybe $10 million on the very high end of estimates spread over 4 seasons, assuming good health and performance of a pitcher over 6 years.

[jorgenswest]

The Twins can afford to pay any arbitration costs. These are all one year deals. The only consideration should be years of control. That really isn’t a factor.

[Riverbrian]

 

The Twins can afford to pay any arbitration costs. These are all one year deals. The only consideration should be years of control. That really isn’t a factor.

 

Yes they can... The Twins can afford it and if Romero is worth it... they will pay it... I'm not looking at this from a Fernando Romero only viewpoint.  The effect can only be calculated when placed in context with how much they are paying everybody else in a given year. 

 

Look at the potential payroll demands for 2021... Think about where we might be in our contention window in 2021... Now throw an extra 1 to 6 million dollars to Romero that you didn't have to pay and it could cost you a bullpen arm when you need it in 2021, the money needed to extend someone or the money for just a little better free agent. 

 

Yes the Twins can afford a Romero Arbitration win. Every team can. 

 

However... we all know that the Twins typically can't afford the players we need every year when putting together a complete roster. 

 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Look at the potential payroll demands for 2021... Think about where we might be in our contention window in 2021... Now throw an extra 1 to 6 million dollars to Romero that you didn't have to pay and it could cost you a bullpen arm when you need it in 2021, the money needed to extend someone or the money for just a little better free agent. 

Let's look at potential payroll demands for 2021.

 

3rd and final year of arbitration: Rosario, Sano, Buxton

3rd of 4 years of arbitration (super 2's): Kepler, Rogers

2nd year of arbitration: Berrios, Polanco

1st year: Romero, Hildenberger, Mejia?

 

Zero dollars committed for 2021 so far. Even if Sano and Buxton get back on track, their extended poor health and performance has already suppressed their potential arbitration earnings to some extent. Same for Kepler and Polanco, really. Rogers and Hildenberger are negligible as middle relievers.

 

No one else from our current minor league system can possibly be arbitration eligible by 2021. And the current CBA runs through 2021 so there won't even be a rules change before then either.

 

Heck, even Romero's own performance so far doesn't suggest it's too likely he will command a historically elite first arbitration award in 2021. Might even be lower than the Twins 2018 playoff odds. (Currently 4% using Fangraphs projections, 14% using "season-to-date-stats" mode, and 12% by coin flips.)

 

For a team that can support a $128 mil payroll, there is zero reason to be concerned now about how Romero's super 2 status might affect our payroll flexibility in 2021.

[Otto von Ballpark]

And I still don't see how the "preventing super 2" theory jibes with the decision to NOT option Romero after his start on Friday, and instead give him a "free" day of 2018 service time to watch & learn from Jake Odorizzi on Saturday. Every day counts (just ask Eddie Rosario, who fell 3 days short this year).

[WLFINN]

 

I don't like this move.  Romero has struggled a bit as of late, but to earn a demotion?  

Not so sure it was a demotion as it wasa combination of being a victim of roster crunch due to Odorizzi's short start and trying to limit his innings....

[Riverbrian]

 

Let's look at potential payroll demands for 2021.

 

3rd and final year of arbitration: Rosario, Sano, Buxton

3rd of 4 years of arbitration (super 2's): Kepler, Rogers

2nd year of arbitration: Berrios, Polanco

1st year: Romero, Hildenberger, Mejia?

 

Zero dollars committed for 2021 so far. Even if Sano and Buxton get back on track, their extended poor health and performance has already suppressed their potential arbitration earnings to some extent. Same for Kepler and Polanco, really. Rogers and Hildenberger are negligible as middle relievers.

 

No one else from our current minor league system can possibly be arbitration eligible by 2021. And the current CBA runs through 2021 so there won't even be a rules change before then either.

 

Heck, even Romero's own performance so far doesn't suggest it's too likely he will command a historically elite first arbitration award in 2021. Might even be lower than the Twins 2018 playoff odds. (Currently 4% using Fangraphs projections, 14% using "season-to-date-stats" mode, and 12% by coin flips.)

 

For a team that can support a $128 mil payroll, there is zero reason to be concerned now about how Romero's super 2 status might affect our payroll flexibility in 2021.

 

Unless we are talking about filling the rest of the positions from our current farm system... I'm going to assume that we will need to spend some money on the other positions. 

 

We can't look at what is on the books in 2021 and say "Look... there are very little obligations here"

 

All the players you list besides the bullpen guys are the supposed core of the window of opportunity that we've been waiting for since... 2012.

 

If they are not the core... then you are right. This conversation won't matter one bit because we will have to trade off our pieces of value to build the next core.  

 

If they are the core... they will require expensive pieces around them in support. If we are pinching pennies in 2020 and 2021, I can think of a few TD'ers around here who are going to start cheering for the Yankees instead. 

 

GM's have to plan for possible success and possible failure. It is possible, this is where we are getting our wires crossed a little.

 

My main point with Romero is... What if? What if... he is the guy that he looks like he is to me?

 

What if... all or a portion of Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios turn out to be what we've been waiting for... a core that gives us a chance. What if they are the core we've been waiting for? 

 

If that happens... Now Sano, Buxton and Rosario have big price tags through ARB and the team is gonna need to spend on the other positions to support the core... It's Minnesota... we will have a budget, we know we will not turn into the Dodgers for a year and be drunken sailors.

 

In that scenario... those 1 to 6 million bucks that Romero got as a Super-Two that they didn't have to pay for in 2021 could cost us a bullpen arm, the extra money it takes to add a decent catcher, the extra money to extend Rosario.

 

Romero at 600K plus someone else is better than just Romero as support for the core. And as Sconnie pointed out... it will most likely be extra millions in the other three years.  

 

If you are of the opinion, that this core isn't going to pan out and your post does suggest that with the possibility of low arb rulings... well then you are right. It doesn't matter. Just take each year as it comes. It'll make no sense for a GM to do long range planning of this nature. 

[yarnivek1972]

If the Twins are truly in genuine contention in 2020 and 2021, I think the “problem” takes care of itself. That would likely mean Sano and Buxton at all star to possibly mvp levels. Kepler and the secondary core all performing at expected development levels.

 

Genuine contention and winning a playoff series or two or three will put more fannies in the seats and generate more revenue. More revenue will allow for more payroll.

 

Sure, it is likely that the Twins won’t keep all of their core. But hopefully it will be because guys down on the farm are forcing their way on to the team.