Twins demote Romero

[Otto von Ballpark]

Quoting from another thread:

 

Several reasons you don't want to do that. The first is that the FO probably hasn't quite given up on this season so sending a guy with a 7.50+ ERA for the last month is telling fans they don't care about the season. Secondly, Romero could use some confidence. Getting beat up regularly in the majors isn't good for anyone. It creates self-doubt and forces him to overpitch. Let him relax. He'll be up again. And, as others have noted, he'll be on an innings limit this year so a bit of rest right now won't hurt him.

 

Lastly, the Twins have other guys in AAA or on assignments that also deserve chances to pitch in the majors. Mejia made 21 starts for the a playoff team last year and is posting a sub 3.00 era in AAA right now (and has been even hotter over the last month). Keeping him in the minors while someone else is struggling as bad as Romero is right now probably sends a worse message to AAA ballplayers.

This is pretty skewed by selective endpoints. Romero had a terrible start just under a month ago, but has otherwise been acceptable, if rough around the edges. There are absolutely no "messaging" concerns about keeping him in the rotation at this point.

 

I could absolutely see an argument for swapping out Romero for Mejia right now, to control the innings of the former and get a look at the latter. But it troubles me that the decision wasn't made until after Odorizzi's poor start Saturday, which suggests there are other factors (Odorizzi, Belisle, Magill?) driving this decision that probably shouldn't be involved. This should be entirely about Romero and Mejia, in which case Romero should have been optioned after his start Friday night, and a reliever called up to take his place until Mejia was needed.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

I could absolutely see an argument for swapping out Romero for Mejia right now, to control the innings of the former and get a look at the latter. But it troubles me that the decision wasn't made until after Odorizzi's poor start Saturday, which suggests there are other factors (Odorizzi, Belisle, Magill?) driving this decision that probably shouldn't be involved. This should be entirely about Romero and Mejia, in which case Romero should have been optioned after his start Friday night, and a reliever called up to take his place until Mejia was needed.

 

I agree, it's hard not to see this as based on Odorizzi and the desire to give him a longer leash for reasons the front office will keep to themselves.

 

Hopefully this puts a bit of a chip on Romero's shoulder. Nothing irreconcilable, just something to motivate. I'm kind of a fan of pitchers with a chip on their shoulder.

 

I mean unless they're in the broadcast booth.

[Riverbrian]

 

Quoting from another thread:

 

This is pretty skewed by selective endpoints. Romero had a terrible start just under a month ago, but has otherwise been acceptable, if rough around the edges. There are absolutely no "messaging" concerns about keeping him in the rotation at this point.

 

I could absolutely see an argument for swapping out Romero for Mejia right now, to control the innings of the former and get a look at the latter. But it troubles me that the decision wasn't made until after Odorizzi's poor start Saturday, which suggests there are other factors (Odorizzi, Belisle, Magill?) driving this decision that probably shouldn't be involved. This should be entirely about Romero and Mejia, in which case Romero should have been optioned after his start Friday night, and a reliever called up to take his place until Mejia was needed.

 

I've brought this up a lot but I'm just asking because you seem to shy away from it in your pondering. 

 

Do you think it's possible that the front office has moved into 2019 and beyond planning?

 

Do you consider it possible that Service Time would be a strong consideration, in this case, if they have decided that 2018 is a lost or dwindling cause. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I agree, it's hard not to see this as based on Odorizzi and the desire to give him a longer leash for reasons the front office will keep to themselves.

 

Hopefully this puts a bit of a chip on Romero's shoulder. Nothing irreconcilable, just something to motivate.

Yeah, if there is any "messaging" issue, it seems to be the result of Romero's demotion, rather than Romero's demotion cut it off. To wit, Berardino's opening line for his game story: "Fernando Romero became the immediate casualty of Jake Odorizzi’s latest disappointing start."

[alarp33]

 

I've brought this up a lot but I'm just asking because you seem to shy away from it in your pondering. 

 

Do you think it's possible that the front office has moved into 2019 and beyond planning?

 

Do you consider it possible that Service Time would be a strong consideration, in this case, if they have decided that 2018 is a lost or dwindling cause. 

 

I think service time is brought up wayyyyy to often by fans and factors in to a lot less decisions than fans think.  

 

On an uber prospect like a Harper, K Bryant, etc. of course service time is a factor in decisions.  On a good but not elite prospect like Romero? I highly doubt it. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I've brought this up a lot but I'm just asking because you seem to shy away from it in your pondering. 

 

Do you think it's possible that the front office has moved into 2019 and beyond planning?

 

Do you consider it possible that Service Time would be a strong consideration, in this case, if they have decided that 2018 is a lost or dwindling cause. 

If they're planning for 2019 and beyond, shouldn't that give priority to Romero? Maybe not to keep him in the rotation permanently, but at least prioritize his development decisions (so send him down after his own start, rather than waiting until after Odorizzi's).

 

Service time is not an issue for Romero. It's barely a deal for any pitcher, because of the outsize effects of pitcher injuries, but Romero is already controlled through at least 2024, his age-29 season. They'd have to keep him in the minors until August of next year (2019) to gain any further control.

 

I suppose they could push back his first arbitration season from 2021 to 2022 with ~40 more days in the minors this season, but that seems like a pretty marginal concern. And even if it was, that's more of an argument to option him immediately following his start and not wait a day.

[nicksaviking]

I would think service time in Romero's case will likely never be an issue, but I could still see the front office thinking about it.

 

However, if as Brain suggested the team is already planning for next year, it's also possible that they want to showcase as many movable parts with fewer years of control as possible for the next month. And that could include hoping for a rebound from Odorizzi and giving Mejia some spotlight.

[yarnivek1972]

I think service time is brought up wayyyyy to often by fans and factors in to a lot less decisions than fans think.

 

On an uber prospect like a Harper, K Bryant, etc. of course service time is a factor in decisions. On a good but not elite prospect like Romero? I highly doubt it.

I agree with this. How often does a prospect come up and never go back down? Pretty rare. Certainly hasn’t for the Twins in awhile. Hildenberger hasn’t gone back down yet, but he probably came close in April. But he was already 26 when he first came up. Romero is 23. That’s significant IMO.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would think service time in Romero's case will likely never be an issue, but I could still see the front office thinking about it.

I hope not, because that makes the decision to wait a day to send him down all the worse.

 

 

However, if as Brain suggested the team is already planning for next year, it's also possible that they want to showcase as many movable parts with fewer years of control as possible for the next month. And that could include hoping for a rebound from Odorizzi and giving Mejia some spotlight.

And they hadn't made that decision yet Friday night, but they did make it after the game Saturday?

 

Seems unlikely they would move Mejia at the deadline, I can't think of a guy like him getting dealt in that fashion. He has almost as much control as Romero (both are still under 1 year, but Mejia will pass that with 21 more days in MLB), although Mejia will be out of options next spring.

 

Showcasing Matt Belisle? Good luck with that.

[Tomj14]

 

There are young guys on the 25... perhaps one of them woudl be receptive... who knows... I'm just speculating. 

Wasn't that what happened last year? Weren't Curtiss, Duffey, Busenitz and Moya all up last year?

[Tomj14]

Despite our frustrations right now gang, let's not lose sight of the fact that there are still some really nice building blocks in place.

 

 

Without Sano returning to at least 2017 or rookie year levels and Buxton hitting.

Sadly there isn't much major league ready building blocks. (Berrios and Rosario, Romero is close but only 10 starts)

[FunnyPenguin]

 

My guess is Busenizt comes up for tomorrow's game and then Mejia is added later to fill Romero's spot in the rotation (with Belisle waived).

I would be totally ok with that, Romero got a good cup of coffee, work on a few things and hopefully he'll come back for good.  In the meantime, nothing wrong with bringing up Mejia

[nicksaviking]

 

I hope not, because that makes the decision to wait a day to send him down all the worse.

 

 

And they hadn't made that decision yet Friday night, but they did make it after the game Saturday?

 

Seems unlikely they would move Mejia at the deadline, I can't think of a guy like him getting dealt in that fashion. He has almost as much control as Romero (both are still under 1 year, but Mejia will pass that with 21 more days in MLB), although Mejia will be out of options next spring.

 

Showcasing Matt Belisle? Good luck with that.

 

Well they seemed to make the decision to send Romero down because Odorizzi's terrible performance was killing the bullpen, a starter needed to go even if temporarily and it wasn't going to be Odorizzi if the team had an eye on salvaging any future trade value. Mejia doesn't look like a prime candidate to go, but he does look like one of those quasi-valued controllable throw-ins that teams add to sweeten the pot when they move a vet that will walk after the season so as the buyer still has something to show for the trade.

 

I'd guess Belisle's situation likely had little to no impact on the Romero decision. I might not be following your reference there.

[Shane Wahl]

I can't even.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'd guess Belisle's situation likely had little to no impact on the Romero decision. I might not be following your reference there.

Was a reference to your "showcase as many movable parts".

 

If they needed another available reliever, cutting Belisle was a very obvious move, even before the Odorizzi start.

 

Belisle doesn't fit with the "looking ahead to 2019" theory at all.

[WLFINN]

Not saying I agree with this but....With many of the same people calling the shots as were when Belisle last pitched for us, as a formidable closer, I am thinking they are hoping he has enough left in him to build some trade value....maybe they see something in his mechanics that need to be tweaked?

[Jham]

If they're planning for 2019 and beyond, shouldn't that give priority to Romero? Maybe not to keep him in the rotation permanently, but at least prioritize his development decisions (so send him down after his own start, rather than waiting until after Odorizzi's).

 

Service time is not an issue for Romero. It's barely a deal for any pitcher, because of the outsize effects of pitcher injuries, but Romero is already controlled through at least 2024, his age-29 season. They'd have to keep him in the minors until August of next year (2019) to gain any further control.

 

I suppose they could push back his first arbitration season from 2021 to 2022 with ~40 more days in the minors this season, but that seems like a pretty marginal concern. And even if it was, that's more of an argument to option him immediately following his start and not wait a day.

Yes, but....

 

Delaying FA is a no-brainer when a month gets you a year. To an owner that just sold a draft pick for $6mil, delaying arbitration may make just as much "cents". See "Glen Perkins grievance" for reference. League min vs likely $5 mil for a super 2 in year 1, and potentially larger jumps in subsequent filings...

 

Given his innings limits, lack of AAA experience, and recent struggles both team and individual, the demotion is a near no brainer. To a Pohlad at least.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yes, but....

 

Delaying FA is a no-brainer when a month gets you a year. To an owner that just sold a draft pick for $6mil, delaying arbitration may make just as much "cents". See "Glen Perkins grievance" for reference. League min vs likely $5 mil for a super 2 in year 1, and potentially larger jumps in subsequent filings...

 

Given his innings limits, lack of AAA experience, and recent struggles both team and individual, the demotion is a near no brainer. To a Pohlad at least.

Why wait a day to demote him then?

 

$5 mil for super 2 seems high. Nobody got more than $3.6 mil this year. Syndergaard was under $3 mil, McCullers was under $2.5. And I may be wrong, but I don't think super 2 sets you up for higher awards years 3-6 -- I thought your comparable reset to the larger service time cohort each year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Not saying I agree with this but....With many of the same people calling the shots as were when Belisle last pitched for us, as a formidable closer, I am thinking they are hoping he has enough left in him to build some trade value....maybe they see something in his mechanics that need to be tweaked?

Coming off his season as a "formidable closer", Belisle failed to get a MLB contract. He's not returning anything of significance in trade.

[gil4]

 

It's like they're intentionally trying to determine just exactly how far they can go before I stop paying any attention whatsoever.

You were paying attention in 2016. They already know how far they can go.

[Riverbrian]

 

I think service time is brought up wayyyyy to often by fans and factors in to a lot less decisions than fans think.  

 

On an uber prospect like a Harper, K Bryant, etc. of course service time is a factor in decisions.  On a good but not elite prospect like Romero? I highly doubt it. 

 

I'm not an expert by any stretch of the imagination but you may have this backwards.

 

Fans are the ones that tend to dismiss service time and the fan typically doesn't calculate the down the road effect it has on payroll in 2021 in 2018 when the decision is being made but front offices HAVE TO and I believe all 30 teams strongly consider service time on decisions on any player that looks major league caliber... If they don't... they are making their future jobs harder by not using the CBA to their advantage. 

 

Now the discussion over weather Romero is a great prospect or uber prospect is certainly in the eye of the beholder but in my opinion... He's looks pretty damn good to me despite his 4 plus ERA and I really don't care if Baseball Prospectus has him ranked #97. 

 

If he stays healthy... I believe that he will be important in 2019 and I can't dismiss the possibility that he could become the type of player that will get 10 million in ARB money as a Super Two like Kris Bryant did. 

 

If 2018 is lost... Send him down to AAA... Let him get his work in and manage his innings and Super Two is not an issue. 

 

Open 2019 with him in the rotation on day one and pay him 600K instead of 10 million ARB money in 2021 and then you will have Romero plus whoever 10 million can buy instead of just Romero for the same price in a year that is supposed to be firmly in our projected open window of serious contention. 

 

Just discussing... I don't take myself seriously enough to believe that I am absolutely right but I certainly consider my thinking to be at the very least possible. 

[Kelly Vance]

 

It's like they're intentionally trying to determine just exactly how far they can go before I stop paying any attention whatsoever.

Nah, Chief don't take it that way. Its not about you.

They are annoying lots of us, believe me.

Or as the Prez would say, "That I can tell you."

 

Romero was looking at some kind of innings limit. He is still a callow youth, after all. Maybe they see this as a good idea to give him more time between starts, or move him to the BP after some corrections. Whatever the reason is, I'm cool with it. I wish Romero had a four year veteran's arm strength, but this is better than Tommy John surgery. 

 

The days of Earl Weaver and four 20 game winners are long gone. 

 

 

[Kelly Vance]

 

The draft pick sent to San Diego was worth more than Huges' salary if you believe in your draft department

You ain't wrong  I think it was a "problem solved" valuation. I am ok with it. Many draft picks fail to pan out...although second round is a swallow hard thing. Still, I am happy for Phil, (I was a Camp Pendleton Marine and San Diego is muy cool) and we move on. 

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think service time is brought up wayyyyy to often by fans and factors in to a lot less decisions than fans think.  

 

On an uber prospect like a Harper, K Bryant, etc. of course service time is a factor in decisions.  On a good but not elite prospect like Romero? I highly doubt it. 

Especially pitching prospects. You'll be lucky to get 6-7 years out of any starting pitcher, no matter how elite they may be in the minors.

[Jham]

Why wait a day to demote him then?

$5 mil for super 2 seems high. Nobody got more than $3.6 mil this year. Syndergaard was under $3 mil, McCullers was under $2.5. And I may be wrong, but I don't think super 2 sets you up for higher awards years 3-6 -- I thought your comparable reset to the larger service time cohort each year.

I dunno. Maybe a little high. DeGrom got 4 in 17. Trevor Bauer got 3.5. Assuming some inflation in comps and continued improvement from Romero, he could do pretty well in arbitration.

 

As for the second part regarding overall pay for arbitration years, this 2013 summary is great demonstration both on why we should AND shouldn't care. In summation, super twos make a lot more money over the course of team control relative to 3 year arb players, and make more each year. At the same time, the Mets did all that fussing and Travis D'arnaud could be out of baseball. https://www.amazinavenue.com/2013/3/11/4080186/mets-travis-darnaud-super-two-opening-day

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm not an expert by any stretch of the imagination but you may have this backwards.

 

Fans are the ones that tend to dismiss service time and the fan typically doesn't calculate the down the road effect it has on payroll in 2021 in 2018 when the decision is being made but front offices HAVE TO and I believe all 30 teams strongly consider service time on decisions on any player that looks major league caliber... If they don't... they are making their future jobs harder by not using the CBA to their advantage. 

 

Now the discussion over weather Romero is a great prospect or uber prospect is certainly in the eye of the beholder but in my opinion... He's looks pretty damn good to me despite his 4 plus ERA and I really don't care if Baseball Prospectus has him ranked #97. 

 

If he stays healthy... I believe that he will be important in 2019 and I can't dismiss the possibility that he could become the type of player that will get 10 million in ARB money as a Super Two like Kris Bryant did. 

 

If 2018 is lost... Send him down to AAA... Let him get his work in and manage his innings and Super Two is not an issue. 

 

Open 2019 with him in the rotation on day one and pay him 600K instead of 10 million ARB money in 2021 and then you will have Romero plus whoever 10 million can buy instead of just Romero for the same price in a year that is supposed to be firmly in our projected open window of serious contention. 

 

Just discussing... I don't take myself seriously enough to believe that I am absolutely right but I certainly consider my thinking to be at the very least possible. 

Super Two status barely even registers.

 

So the guy gets a few extra million earlier than expected. If it happens, it means the guy has been good enough that you don't really care and welcome the (still cheap) addition to your team.

 

Doubly so on a team with no long-term commitments. Not even one.

 

This decision almost surely boils down to innings pitched and/or refinement of approach. Service time doesn't make sense, as the front office wants the best possible pitcher going into 2019, and that means Romero at the MLB level.

[Riverbrian]

 

If they're planning for 2019 and beyond, shouldn't that give priority to Romero? Maybe not to keep him in the rotation permanently, but at least prioritize his development decisions (so send him down after his own start, rather than waiting until after Odorizzi's).

 

Service time is not an issue for Romero. It's barely a deal for any pitcher, because of the outsize effects of pitcher injuries, but Romero is already controlled through at least 2024, his age-29 season. They'd have to keep him in the minors until August of next year (2019) to gain any further control.

 

I suppose they could push back his first arbitration season from 2021 to 2022 with ~40 more days in the minors this season, but that seems like a pretty marginal concern. And even if it was, that's more of an argument to option him immediately following his start and not wait a day.

 

Right now Romero is around .54 and if he comes back after 10 days and stays the entire year he would end around .144. Give or take a day or two. 

 

Time on the D.L. while on the major league roster would continue to accrue service time so injury doesn't stop the clock.  

 

Yes... odds are good that Romero may bounce around a little like Berrios did but what if he doesn't.

 

If he spends .144 in a lost 2018 season... He's gonna have to really bounce down to Rochester for a lengthy stretch to get under that 22%. 

 

What if he just does the job. What if he becomes important in the next two seasons. 

 

Not out of the realm of possibility. He looks like a pretty damn good pitcher with some serious stuff. 

 

However many millions of dollars he earns in that super two arb year is money that they don't have available to spend on an additional player in 2021. The Twins have a budget and potentially 2021 is a year when Sano, Buxton, Rosario and Kepler will be ARB 3 and Rosario and Berrios will be ARB 2.  

 

Not to mention the rolling effect on the next 3 Arb years because they typically increase each year and that additional super two year will act like a springboard for them.

 

Super Two Status could conceivably cost us a decent additional player in each of those years. 

 

It seems like Keeping him down the rest of 2018 says the team thinks he can start opening day in 2019 and they want to count on him. While keeping him up in 2018 says that they think he's gonna spend significant minor league time in next two years and then yes... it clearly won't matter. 

 

As for the timing of the demotion. Necessity is the mother of invention is all I got. Odorizzi made it necessary. 

 

Who knows... Being a GM is much more complicated than running my fantasy baseball team. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[alarp33]

 

I'm not an expert by any stretch of the imagination but you may have this backwards.

 

Fans are the ones that tend to dismiss service time and the fan typically doesn't calculate the down the road effect it has on payroll in 2021 in 2018 when the decision is being made but front offices HAVE TO and I believe all 30 teams strongly consider service time on decisions on any player that looks major league caliber... If they don't... they are making their future jobs harder by not using the CBA to their advantage. 

 

Now the discussion over weather Romero is a great prospect or uber prospect is certainly in the eye of the beholder but in my opinion... He's looks pretty damn good to me despite his 4 plus ERA and I really don't care if Baseball Prospectus has him ranked #97. 

 

If he stays healthy... I believe that he will be important in 2019 and I can't dismiss the possibility that he could become the type of player that will get 10 million in ARB money as a Super Two like Kris Bryant did. 

 

If 2018 is lost... Send him down to AAA... Let him get his work in and manage his innings and Super Two is not an issue. 

 

Open 2019 with him in the rotation on day one and pay him 600K instead of 10 million ARB money in 2021 and then you will have Romero plus whoever 10 million can buy instead of just Romero for the same price in a year that is supposed to be firmly in our projected open window of serious contention. 

 

Just discussing... I don't take myself seriously enough to believe that I am absolutely right but I certainly consider my thinking to be at the very least possible. 

 

I wasn't picking on you, I just have seen the service time thing a lot recently when it comes to some of these young Twins.  Like others have stated 6 years from now for a pitcher is an eternity, if Romero is 29 and makes $20 million in his last 4th year of arbitration I would say that's a problem the Twins would happily sign up for today if they could

 

Just like service time isn't an issue with Nick Gordon, who should be a good player but unlikely to break the bank at any point. 

 

I'm not sure why they sent him down, I would try to limit his innings to a degree this year, maybe thats part of it. But I feel pretty confident in saying it has 0 to do with his Super 2 status

[Riverbrian]

 

I wasn't picking on you, I just have seen the service time thing a lot recently when it comes to some of these young Twins.  Like others have stated 6 years from now for a pitcher is an eternity, if Romero is 29 and makes $20 million in his last 4th year of arbitration I would say that's a problem the Twins would happily sign up for today if they could

 

Just like service time isn't an issue with Nick Gordon, who should be a good player but unlikely to break the bank at any point. 

 

I'm not sure why they sent him down, I would try to limit his innings to a degree this year, maybe thats part of it. But I feel pretty confident in saying it has 0 to do with his Super 2 status

 

I wasn't feeling picked on. 

 

I'm enjoying the discussion. 

 

I get that a lot has to go right for all of this to matter but what if it does and I won't rule it out... He looks good out there. I think he's legit. Yes... The Twins will gladly pay the 20 million in ARB 4 if Romero turns into the monster we'd like him to be but there is a reason Eloy Jimenez is in Charlotte raking while Tilson is the every day left fielder in Chicago and I'm not convinced that it's because he has to work on his defense or quilting skills. 

 

It's not just 20 million in ARB 4... it is also 20 million extra over all 4 years of Arb plus the 20 million in ARB 4 and all they have to do to avoid it... Is cool him down a little in a lost season. 

[Riverbrian]

 

Super Two status barely even registers.

 

So the guy gets a few extra million earlier than expected. If it happens, it means the guy has been good enough that you don't really care and welcome the (still cheap) addition to your team.

 

Doubly so on a team with no long-term commitments. Not even one.

 

This decision almost surely boils down to innings pitched and/or refinement of approach. Service time doesn't make sense, as the front office wants the best possible pitcher going into 2019, and that means Romero at the MLB level.

 

You can't just look at the 1st year by itself... It will be cumulative over 4 years and by the time 2021 rolls around, we will probably have some long term commitments... if we fancy ourselves contenders.