Jorge Polanco Update

[rv78]

When Polanco comes back to replace Adrianza have Gordon come along and replace Dozier.

[markos]

I'm not 100% certain of these two statements; someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

 

- Once Polanco is reinstated on July 2, he must immediately be placed on the 25-man roster.

- He does not have any options remaining, so he must remain on the active roster for the rest of the season (barring injury).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm not 100% certain of these two statements; someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

 

- Once Polanco is reinstated on July 2, he must immediately be placed on the 25-man roster.

- He does not have any options remaining, so he must remain on the active roster for the rest of the season (barring injury).

I don't think he has to be added back to the roster immediately. This link says within 30 days:

 

https://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3544

 

 

A player on the Restricted List must be added back to his club's Reserve List within 30 days of reinstatement or when he is placed on the club's Active List (whichever comes first), or by Opening Day of the following season if the player is reinstated during the off season, but if the player is assigned to another club after reinstatement he must be placed on that club's Reserve List immediately.

 

But once he is added, you are correct that he is out of options so he'd have to stay in MLB or on the MLB disabled list.

[Otto von Ballpark]

From the same link, about minor league assignments:

 

 

Prior to being reinstated, an MLB player who is on the Restricted List as the result of a suspension related to a violation of the Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program (ban on the use of a prohibited substance) or a suspension or leave of absence related to a violation or possible violation of the Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault, and Child Abuse policy may consent to an assignment to a minor league affiliate of his club for no more than six days for a suspension of 10-20 games, no more than ten days if suspended 21-30 games, no more than twelve days if suspended 31-50 games, and no more than 15 days for suspensions of more than 50 games. Players do not accrue MLB Service Time and are not paid while on the assignment.

 

So it sounds like his "rehab" is limited to 15 days.

[Otto von Ballpark]

"Within 30 days" means he needs to be activated by July 31.

 

If he was activated on July 27th or later, that would mean he finishes the year with less than 2 years service time, effectively giving the Twins an extra year of club control before free agency.

 

Guessing it won't come to that, of course, unless something else comes out about his injury.

[alarp33]

 

There is nothing magical about it. But 20 is the maximum that the rules allow, and he'll need as many as they can give him.

 

The most at bats any player on the Twins received this Spring was 51.  Why does Polanco need 70-80 to be ready to play? 

[Han Joelo]

 

If he can play better than Mitterrand or Petit I'll be happy. (Autocorrect--should read Motter; but if he can play better than a dead French president, that's good too.)

Mitterrand update:  This has kind of been bothering me, so I did a little research to back up my claim.  Mitterrand is indeed dead--he died in 1996 of prostate cancer, a few months after leaving office.  He was president of France for 14 years.  In early life he was very much a nationalist, but his experiences in WWII, which included a stint as a POW and then time in the Resistance, pushed his politics to the left.  Having read all of this, I believe he would be a serviceable, switch-hitting utility player, at least as good as Motter.

 

As far as Polanco goes, this team needs all hands on deck.  

[snap4birds]

 

Mitterrand update:  This has kind of been bothering me, so I did a little research to back up my claim.  Mitterrand is indeed dead--he died in 1996 of prostate cancer, a few months after leaving office.  He was president of France for 14 years.  In early life he was very much a nationalist, but his experiences in WWII, which included a stint as a POW and then time in the Resistance, pushed his politics to the left.  Having read all of this, I believe he would be a serviceable, switch-hitting utility player, at least as good as Motter.

 

As far as Polanco goes, this team needs all hands on deck.  

 

Good thing your auto-correct didn't choose Mitterwald.  No way Motter tops George's 6.1 career bWAR.  

 

And while Mitterand was a leftist, I think Mitterwald mostly hit to right field.  The spray charts for that era are notoriously unreliable, though.

[ashbury]

The most at bats any player on the Twins received this Spring was 51.  Why does Polanco need 70-80 to be ready to play? 

Spring ball is played at a different pace than in-season. Batters getting some looks at live pitching in March may not show up in stats. During the season, you don't have pitchers looking for opportunities to throw to a live batter so much, so the batter needs to take the opportunities where they are available.

[alarp33]

 

Spring ball is played at a different pace than in-season. Batters getting some looks at live pitching in March may not show up in stats. During the season, you don't have pitchers looking for opportunities to throw to a live batter so much, so the batter needs to take the opportunities where they are available.

 

Well he has been playing in extended Spring games, which would be the equivalent of getting looks at live pitching?  I'm just failing to see why people are saying he needs the full 20 games? These guys don't get 20 full games in March.  If he's playing in games by mid to end this week I see no reason why the July 2 deadline is in jeopardy, other than a magical number of 20 which seems to be coming from nowhere?

[ashbury]

Well he has been playing in extended Spring games, which would be the equivalent of getting looks at live pitching?  I'm just failing to see why people are saying he needs the full 20 games? These guys don't get 20 full games in March.  If he's playing in games by mid to end this week I see no reason why the July 2 deadline is in jeopardy, other than a magical number of 20 which seems to be coming from nowhere?

Somebody else brought up the word 'magical'. There's no implication of analytical precision in any of this.

 

And now we're two weeks away from Polanco's eligibility to join the major league team, and he still hasn't appeared in a minor-league box score. So the number 20 isn't even operative anymore, in regard to making it back on schedule. Magic number or not.

 

Rustiness from lack of opportunity is the issue, and the car-door incident threw a big spanner into the works. July 2 is not impossible, but to me the odds went down.

[Mr. Brooks]

Well he has been playing in extended Spring games, which would be the equivalent of getting looks at live pitching? I'm just failing to see why people are saying he needs the full 20 games? These guys don't get 20 full games in March. If he's playing in games by mid to end this week I see no reason why the July 2 deadline is in jeopardy, other than a magical number of 20 which seems to be coming from nowhere?

Coming out of ST, everyone is equally rusty.

Now he's being thrown in against everyone else who are in midseason form.

 

I guess the max is actually 15 games, so IMO that is how many games he'll play.

[alarp33]

 

Coming out of ST, everyone is equally rusty.
Now he's being thrown in against everyone else who are in midseason form.

I guess the max is actually 15 games, so IMO that is how many games he'll play.

 

I don't know, seems like a bunch of guesses to me.  If the Twins say he'll be in the lineup July 2 I haven't seen any reason to doubt that yet - I'd probably begin doubting it if he hasn't played in a game by next Monday. 

 

FWIW, the MLB wRC+ and Ops were higher in April than they are in June so far, even though weather is a factor in April.  "rust" seems pretty subjective and unmeaningful

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't know, seems like a bunch of guesses to me. If the Twins say he'll be in the lineup July 2 I haven't seen any reason to doubt that yet - I'd probably begin doubting it if he hasn't played in a game by next Monday.

 

FWIW, the MLB wRC+ and Ops were higher in April than they are in June so far, even though weather is a factor in April. "rust" seems pretty subjective and unmeaningful

Every player being rusty includes the pitchers.

 

And of course it's a guess. I'm giving my opinion.

From Santana to Mauer to Sano to Buxton, this FO has a laughable track record with their return timetables. I don't believe for a second that this won't delay his return. And again, yes that is just my opinion.

[markos]

 

I don't know, seems like a bunch of guesses to me.  If the Twins say he'll be in the lineup July 2 I haven't seen any reason to doubt that yet - I'd probably begin doubting it if he hasn't played in a game by next Monday. 

 

FWIW, the MLB wRC+ and Ops were higher in April than they are in June so far, even though weather is a factor in April.  "rust" seems pretty subjective and unmeaningful

Tangential to the question of whether or not Polanco will be in the lineup, there is some evidence that delayed starts like this are problematic for hitters. There isn't a huge sample of players, but over the past few seasons there are a handful of hitters that, for various reasons, were forced to sit out the several months of the season for non-injury reasons. Here are the wRC+ for these player for the season in question, with the previous and next seasons for comparison.

 

Stephen Drew - qualifying offer casualty. Signed after draft pick penalty removed.

2013 - 108 wRC+

2014 - 45 <- First game 6/2

2015 - 76

 

Kendrys Morales - same a Drew

2013 - 119 wRC+

2014 - 72 <- First game 6/9

2015 - 131

 

Dee Gordon - 80 game PED suspension

2015 - 116 wRC+

2016 (post-suspension) - 75 <- Suspended 4/28 - reinstated 7/28

2017 - 92

 

Starling Marte - 80 game PED suspension

2016 - 119 wRC+

2017 (post-suspension) - 94 <- Suspended 4/17 - reinstated 7/18

2018 - 120

 

I don't know if it is rust or what, but all of these players significantly under-performed.

[alarp33]

 

Tangential to the question of whether or not Polanco will be in the lineup, there is some evidence that delayed starts like this are problematic for hitters. There isn't a huge sample of players, but over the past few seasons there are a handful of hitters that, for various reasons, were forced to sit out the several months of the season for non-injury reasons. Here are the wRC+ for these player for the season in question, with the previous and next seasons for comparison.

 

Stephen Drew - qualifying offer casualty. Signed after draft pick penalty removed.

2013 - 108 wRC+

2014 - 45 <- First game 6/2

2015 - 76

 

Kendrys Morales - same a Drew

2013 - 119 wRC+

2014 - 72 <- First game 6/9

2015 - 131

 

Dee Gordon - 80 game PED suspension

2015 - 116 wRC+

2016 (post-suspension) - 75 <- Suspended 4/28 - reinstated 7/28

2017 - 92

 

Starling Marte - 80 game PED suspension

2016 - 119 wRC+

2017 (post-suspension) - 94 <- Suspended 4/17 - reinstated 7/18

2018 - 120

 

I don't know if it is rust or what, but all of these players significantly under-performed.

 

Good info. I am not saying that Polanco will jump into the lineup hitting like he did in August of last year though. I'm saying that whether he plays in 10, 12 or 16 games at AAA, its not going to make much of a difference.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

Even smaller samples, but Gordon and Marte actually had higher wRC+ post-suspension than pre-suspension during those seasons. Of course, I think Gordon was aware of the pending suspension since spring training, so he was playing during the early appeal process. That might complicate things. (Same for Chris Colabello's disastrous 2016 pre-suspension.)

 

A bench player, but Abraham Almonte missed the first 80 games in 2016 too, and his 2016 wRC+ was down from his 2015 mark, but in line with 2017 and his career.

 

EDIT TO ADD: Month to month, Marte's performance definitely improved later in the 2017 season. Gordon's was pretty steady throughout 2016. Morales improved marginally after leaving the Twins in 2014, while Drew got even worse after leaving the Red Sox that same year.

[rdehring]

Why don't we all sit back and see what happens?

 

Polanco will be back on July 2, or he won't.  If he isn't, he will be back at some time after that.

 

When he returns he will be rusty, or not.  Personally, I think he is a h....I guess I can't say that word...of a player.  I expect he will be a good addition to the lineup and help restore some of the depth we thought this team would have back last spring.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Why don't we all sit back and see what happens?

 

Polanco will be back on July 2, or he won't. If he isn't, he will be back at some time after that.

 

When he returns he will be rusty, or not. Personally, I think he is a h....I guess I can't say that word...of a player. I expect he will be a good addition to the lineup and help restore some of the depth we thought this team would have back last spring.

Let’s just close the internet, all this speculation isn’t worthwhile anyways

[Craig Arko]

Let’s just close the internet, all this speculation isn’t worthwhile anyways

Where would one go for cute animal videos, then?

[ashbury]

Why don't we all sit back and see what happens?

 

Let’s just close the internet, all this speculation isn’t worthwhile anyways

Moderator's note: Folks are indeed entitled to offer their opinions on the team and players, so let's not pursue this tangent please, lest it turn into bickering.

[USAFChief]

 

Why don't we all sit back and see what happens?

 

Polanco will be back on July 2, or he won't.  If he isn't, he will be back at some time after that.

 

When he returns he will be rusty, or not.  Personally, I think he is a h....I guess I can't say that word...of a player.  I expect he will be a good addition to the lineup and help restore some of the depth we thought this team would have back last spring.

It's ok, you can say "heck" here at TD.

[Thrylos]

Comparing people who did not sign until the middle of the season and did not have opportunity to work out with a team and play in EST games with Polanco who has been working out since day 1 of Spring Training is comparing players under different circumstances...

 

Also, each player has different needs.  Robbie Grossman for example needs just 10 PAs to get ready

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

From the same link, about minor league assignments:

 

 

So it sounds like his "rehab" is limited to 15 days.

 

Given he hurt his hand, is there any reason why he couldn't be put straight on the DL while rehabbing in FTM?  I'd assume that if his hand isn't completely ready that this would be fine.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Given he hurt his hand, is there any reason why he couldn't be put straight on the DL while rehabbing in FTM? I'd assume that if his hand isn't completely ready that this would be fine.

Yes, he could go on the DL and rehab. Of course, he would still need to be added back to the 40-man roster to do that.

[howeda7]

 

to which I might say, not all "hands jammed into car doors" are the same

+1. Not fun if the nail dies and falls off etc. etc. 

[howeda7]

 

 

Comparing people who did not sign until the middle of the season and did not have opportunity to work out with a team and play in EST games with Polanco who has been working out since day 1 of Spring Training is comparing players under different circumstances...

 

Also, each player has different needs.  Robbie Grossman for example needs just 10 PAs to get ready

 

When you're just going to stand there and pray for a walk, you don't even need 10 PAs. Source: Personal Experience. 

[Shaitan]

 

Rustiness from lack of opportunity is the issue, and the car-door incident threw a big spanner into the works. July 2 is not impossible, but to me the odds went down.

Shy of the DL, they don't have a choice about the date. He's out of options.

[Shaitan]

 

 

Comparing people who did not sign until the middle of the season and did not have opportunity to work out with a team and play in EST games with Polanco who has been working out since day 1 of Spring Training is comparing players under different circumstances...

 

Also, each player has different needs.  Robbie Grossman for example needs just 10 PAs to get ready

 

I want to agree with this, but weren't Lynn and Cobb part of the free agent "Spring Training camp"? It clearly wasn't on par with a major league facility because that didn't work out so well either.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Shy of the DL, they don't have a choice about the date. He's out of options.

They do have some choice. While he gets reinstated on July 2nd regardless, we have up to 30 days to actually add him back to the roster. Although it does seem like a firm cap of 15 days minor league "rehab" regardless, so any extra time would be spent idle or scrimmaging or whatever.

 

https://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3544

 

Prior to being reinstated, an MLB player who is on the Restricted List ... may consent to an assignment to a minor league affiliate of his club for ... no more than 15 days for suspensions of more than 50 games...

 

A player on the Restricted List must be added back to his club's Reserve List within 30 days of reinstatement or when he is placed on the club's Active List (whichever comes first)