With trade talks between Yankees and Pirates for Cole heating up, can Levine swoop in?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

According to Passan, Cole is expected to be traded within the week. Pirates are looking for Torres from the Yankees, but they don’t want to part with their prized SS prospect.

 

If there’s anything Levine has as trade chips it’s SS prospects. Can he be the one Passan mentions as the team to swoop in to pry away Gerrit Cole?

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-yankees-continue-push-gerrit-cole-pittsburgh-expects-deal-soon-030645878.html

[mikelink45]

Other than Yu Darvish, are we mentioned in any conversations about any starting pitchers?  Lets hope we land him because this off season is shaping up as either Yu or Nothing. 

[theBOMisthebomb]

Pitching, pitching, pitching, the Twins need pitching. What will the Boy Wonders do for 2018 or are their eyes only on 2019?

[nytwinsfan]

 

Other than Yu Darvish, are we mentioned in any conversations about any starting pitchers?  Lets hope we land him because this off season is shaping up as either Yu or Nothing. 

I've heard we are interested in Arrieta and Cobb if we don't get Darvish. Personally, I'd go after Cobb if we don't get Darvish. Arrieta not worth the likely price. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Other than Yu Darvish, are we mentioned in any conversations about any starting pitchers? Lets hope we land him because this off season is shaping up as either Yu or Nothing.

early in the offseason Falvine checked in on Cole

[jorgenswest]

The Twins can’t compete against Torres in the deal. If he is off the table, Lewis and Romero should be a competitive offer. The Pirates might prefer an Adams/Frazier deal if they like Adams better than Romero or Gonsalves. They may have turned downed an Adams Frazier offer so it might take another good prospect to get him.

 

Acquiring Cole is going to hurt. As long as the Yankees are in play it will be hard for the Twins to compete against their deep farm system.

[mikelink45]

 

I've heard we are interested in Arrieta and Cobb if we don't get Darvish. Personally, I'd go after Cobb if we don't get Darvish. Arrieta not worth the likely price. 

I agree.  Arrieta is my selection for the free agent who is most likely to be a bust.

[Linus]

Wow people seem really excited about two years of Cole. If I have to trade top prospects I'm not going to settle for that return.

[gunnarthor]

I thought the Pirates had some decent MI prospects. Frazier would seem a better fit, IMHO, for them. Frasier and Adams gives them two ML starters right now in positions of need. Torres is the better prospect but he's recovering from TJ surgery and will miss most of next season anyway. 

 

Unless the Pirates have a lower view of Frasier than I do, I'm not sure the Twins could/should get involved. The rumors we were hearing - however accurate they were - Gordon, Jay and Granite is probably about as high as I'd go and I think Frasier/Adams tops that although it might be closer than I first thought.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Adams is better than any minor league arm in our system, but I would comfortably offer an AA arm instead of Jay, if that's what it took.

 

I wonder if the Twins have made an offer to Pittsburgh already and if Pittsburgh is just trying to force the Yankees buckle and give up Torres.

[nytwinsfan]

 

The Twins can’t compete against Torres in the deal. If he is off the table, Lewis and Romero should be a competitive offer. The Pirates might prefer an Adams/Frazier deal if they like Adams better than Romero or Gonsalves. They may have turned downed an Adams Frazier offer so it might take another good prospect to get him.

Acquiring Cole is going to hurt. As long as the Yankees are in play it will be hard for the Twins to compete against their deep farm system.

No on Lewis as part of any deal for Cole (and certainly not Lewis AND Romero). Maybe for 4 years of Archer I'd consider Lewis, but not for 2 years of Cole.

[gunnarthor]

 

Adams is better than any minor league arm in our system, but I would comfortably offer an AA arm instead of Jay, if that's what it took.
 

That's not true. Adams is a nice floor guy, close to the majors but I'd take Romero's stuff (and Gaterol and Thorpe) over him. He and Gonsalves are similar as prospects but Adams has more success in AAA. Although Adams is more likely to move to the pen than Gonsalves.

[jorgenswest]

That's not true. Adams is a nice floor guy, close to the majors but I'd take Romero's stuff (and Gaterol and Thorpe) over him. He and Gonsalves are similar as prospects but Adams has more success in AAA. Although Adams is more likely to move to the pen than Gonsalves.

It isn’t definitive but there is a reasonable possibility that the Pirates view Adams as better than any arm in the Twins minor leagues which would make it difficult for the Twins to compete in this negotiation.

[gunnarthor]

 

It isn’t definitive but there is a reasonable possibility that the Pirates view Adams as better than any arm in the Twins minor leagues which would make it difficult for the Twins to compete in this negotiation.

Agreed, Adams is the better pitching prospect right now b/c he's closer to the majors and has a safer floor but we have several pitchers with better ceilings. The Twins could compete if Adams is the centerpiece. They can't if Frasier is.

[nicksaviking]

Gerrit Cole's HR/9 tripled last year. Tripled! I don't see this working out well at Yankee Stadium.

 

The Twins can go and Phil Hughes him in two years when his contract is up; a buy low candidate after NY scrubs off the last of the former top prospect's luster.

 

I want new starters, and several of them. Cole is quite a ways down that list though.

[Respy]

Sorry I would not give up Royce Lewis for Gerrit Cole.  I think if the Twins are still talking with the Pirates (and I'd presume and hope they are), that the discussion would involve Nick Gordon plus a top pitching prospect or two.

[laloesch]

 

Sorry I would not give up Royce Lewis for Gerrit Cole.  I think if the Twins are still talking with the Pirates (and I'd presume and hope they are), that the discussion would involve Nick Gordon plus a top pitching prospect or two.

 

i wouldn't give them two top pitching prospects.  Not for two years control of Cole.  If it was Archer that would be a different story, but not for Cole.  Gordon in and of itself hurts, but Romero plus Thorpe or Gonsalves is A LOT.     

[jorgenswest]

Gerrit Cole's HR/9 tripled last year. Tripled! I don't see this working out well at Yankee Stadium.

 

The Twins can go and Phil Hughes him in two years when his contract is up; a buy low candidate after NY scrubs off the last of the former top prospect's luster.

 

I want new starters, and several of them. Cole is quite a ways down that list though.

I am not sure this number projects well or indicates a skill change

 

His fly ball rate was 10% above his career norm and more fly balls will lead to more homeruns. Fly ball rates are on the rise across baseball, but not to the extant Cole’s HR rate increased. His increase was due to his home run per fly ball rate that was 60% above career norm. Home run per fly ball rates are not stable. It would be reasonable to expect that number to be much closer to his career norm in 2018.

[Doomtints]

If the Twins are waiting for the Darvish trade to finish before making a move, they are making a mistake. This is what every other team is doing too. If the Twins want to acquire anybody of any worth, they've got to get off the sideline.

[Vanimal46]

Wow people seem really excited about two years of Cole. If I have to trade top prospects I'm not going to settle for that return.

It is legal for Minnesota to offer him an extension after 2 years... Just saying.

[nicksaviking]

 

I am not sure this number projects well or indicates a skill change

His fly ball rate was 10% above his career norm and more fly balls will lead to more homeruns. Fly ball rates are on the rise across baseball, but not to the extant Cole’s HR rate increased. His increase was due to his home run per fly ball rate that was 60% above career norm. Home run per fly ball rates are not stable. It would be reasonable to expect that number to be much closer to his career norm in 2018.

 

Until we see batters change their swings away from getting extra lift and maximizing launch angles, I'm going to work off of the assumption that most pitchers will resemble their 2016 figures rather than the figures prior to when that type of swing became the latest rage.

[nicksaviking]

 

If the Twins are waiting for the Darvish trade to finish before making a move, they are making a mistake. This is what every other team is doing too. If the Twins want to acquire anybody of any worth, they've got to get off the sideline.

 

Agreed, because a trade and a free agent signing should not be a one-or-the-other proposition. I'd say "both" is a completely legit and reasonable answer.

[Linus]

It is legal for Minnesota to offer him an extension after 2 years... Just saying.

His agent is Scott Boras. They go to free agency every time. So if you think the Twins will be the top bidder, then yeah I guess it isn't 2 years. Good luck with that.

[Vanimal46]

His agent is Scott Boras. They go to free agency every time. So if you think the Twins will be the top bidder, then yeah I guess it isn't 2 years. Good luck with that.

#NotAll Boras clients explore free agency. Stephen Strasburg 7/175 extension forgoing FA. Adrian Beltre keeps reupping for years with the Rangers.

[jorgenswest]

Until we see batters change their swings away from getting extra lift and maximizing launch angles, I'm going to work off of the assumption that most pitchers will resemble their 2016 figures rather than the figures prior to when that type of swing became the latest rage.

Is there evidence that home run/fly ball rates among individuals is stable from year to year? I have seen that the estimate is 400-500 fly balls which is more than two seasons for a starting pitcher. I don’t believe he will repeat his rate of last year(15.9%) or his rate from 2016(6.8%). They are the extremes in random variation of a stat that takes a huge sample to stabilize. I don’t believe he will be as effective at limiting home runs as he was in 2016 or be as ineffective as he was in 2017. I don’t believe that change in rates indicates a change in skill level.

[nicksaviking]

I don't think a change in pitcher skill level necessarily means a change in the pitcher results. The impetus of this change is the batters' new swing. Both 2016 and 2017 were extremes for Cole and likely will represent a career best and worst, but either way, his stuff did not appear to react well to a league-wide epidemic of uppercut swings. I wouldn't expect things to even out, I'd expect things to more resemble last year, and I'm not going to rely on historical trends when last year looked to be a significant offensive revolution.

 

And Cole is not alone, sinkers are taking a beating league-wide. Like Kyle Gibson, Cole really cut down on his sinker usage at the end of last year, unlike Gibson, his results weren't very good.

[Linus]

#NotAll Boras clients explore free agency. Stephen Strasburg 7/175 extension forgoing FA. Adrian Beltre keeps reupping for years with the Rangers.

Got it. They will sign an extension as long as it is better than anything in free agency. I think the likelihood of Cole being with the Twins more than 2 years is small.

[nicksaviking]

Got it. They will sign an extension as long as it is better than anything in free agency. I think the likelihood of Cole being with the Twins more than 2 years is small.

They don't work for Boras, it's the other way around.

[Linus]

They don't work for Boras, it's the other way around.

Ok. I'll stick by my contention that a trade for Cole is for two years. Sure there is a chance that it is more but there is no way I'm giving up top prospects for two years of this guy and a hope and a prayer beyond that. Your mileage may differ.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The earliest rumor from an independent Pittsburgh guy was Gordon, Granite and Jay for Cole. That trade sounds like a win-win for both teams and bridges the Twins until Berrios matures and Falvey's own draft selections begin to bear fruit. I might even sweeten the deal by offering a AA starter instead of Jay and ask for an arm in return.

 

If Darvish plans to hold out for $200 million until mid January (no idea what his intentions are), then I think the Twins need to move on Cole and make a deal.