JT Realmuto.....go get him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Here's the valuation link again:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-the-2017-top-100-prospects/

 

I think you'd need at least one 55 FV position player or 60 FV pitcher to lead the package.

 

The only Twins prospect meeting that definition right now is Lewis.

[labcrazy]

 

I'm willing to bet that neither is a bust. And that one is great, and one is good, over the next two years. Others want to wait and see. It's a different approach, nothing more or less than that.

This team has spent decades waiting, and then not acting on the present.

I think you hit it on the head. After what we have seen out of Buxton and Sano the last couple years I don't feel either one of them will ever be what we all hoped. Hopefully they can be functional but neither will likely ever be the generational players we had hoped for several years back. In fact at this point its possible at least one of them isn't much of a factor at all. If Sano doesn't start to take his profession seriously he might eat himself right out of the league. I am all for getting a good catcher but to me Lewis is not available.

[Mike Sixel]

Thanks for the last page or two.... We can disagree respectfully!

[alarp33]

 

Thanks for the last page or two.... We can disagree respectfully!

 

Agreed, and I would love to be wrong on this one - when it comes to where the team is at today

[dbminn]

 

I appreciate your research. I dug it up again because I was curious:

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/30185-article-three-potential-catcher-upgrades-on-the-trade-market/?p=755853

 

I think you may have made a mistake: Gonsalves and Gordon were both 50 FV in the 2018 Fangraphs preseason list. Using the values at the link you posted, that would only be $34 mil value, not $50 mil. (Gordon was listed at 55 FV last year, but downgraded this year, which I guess is also an example of how hard it is to peg values on these guys.)

 

And I don't think you can just add another 45-50 FV prospect to make up the difference either, or you will really be promoting quantity over quality. 50 FV prospects aren't that rare -- across the Fangraphs preseason lists, there were 97 this year. (Plus 42 more at 55 or better.) Virtually every team in baseball could match the package you proposed for the Twins, at almost any time. What would incentivize the Marlins to accept it right now?

 

Additionally, the leader in 50 FV prospects? The Marlins, with 7. They probably need additional 50 FV prospects less than any other team in baseball. (Especially one like Gordon, who was also listed as "low variance" meaning he has a higher floor rather than a higher ceiling.)

 

Can't disagree. Not saying the Marlins would make the trade but I'd make the offer. IMO, Gonsalves is probably the weakest link in my design. Gordon has shown better power this year which, combined with his closeness to MLB makes him a very high 50 at the least. 

 

PS: I thought you were the "some say" it would take Lewis to get Realmuto, but I couldn't remember well enough to attribute. By the way, would you make a trade? What would it look like? 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

My answer is firmly.. MAYBE. Like I've said, if Buxton and Sano stink, no I don't think it's open the next two years. If Buxton and Sano figure it out, then yes I think its open. Which is why I would not consider a trade today for Realmuto. 

 

I think you need to approach 2019 with the idea that these guys are going to take a step forward. I'm sure it also helps them both if there's better hitters top to bottom as they see better pitches when there are less easy outs. I don't think you can wait till mid 2019 to make that call, especially since Realmuto may be off the market by then.

 

Personally, I go for him... even if I waive the white flag on this season.

[Doomtints]

 

Feel good to have Wilson and Garver???

 

There's another name you forgot who is signed beyond this year who, yes, the Twins love.

[Mike Sixel]

 

There's another name you forgot who is signed beyond this year who, yes, the Twins love.

 

for one year, who is over 30, and is going to miss more than 80% of this year......it's pretty unlikely, imo, he's all that good next year, or healthy, given all that.

 

but, it is possible he's ok next year, and then they need a catcher again.

[alarp33]

 

I think you need to approach 2019 with the idea that these guys are going to take a step forward. I'm sure it also helps them both if there's better hitters top to bottom as they see better pitches when there are less easy outs. I don't think you can wait till mid 2019 to make that call, especially since Realmuto may be off the market by then.

 

Personally, I go for him... even if I waive the white flag on this season.

 

I think you can wait till this offseason, which has been my point all along. You can certainly try to plan on them being important parts of your lineup next year, but I don't think that means you need to trade your two top prospects as if that's a certainty. If he's traded to Houston for 3 top 100 prospects this summer? Oh well, I'm not going to lose sleep over it because I don't think the Twins are in a position today where making a trade like that makes sense. 

[Vanimal46]

I think you can wait till this offseason, which has been my point all along. You can certainly try to plan on them being important parts of your lineup next year, but I don't think that means you need to trade your two top prospects as if that's a certainty. If he's traded to Houston for 3 top 100 prospects this summer? Oh well, I'm not going to lose sleep over it because I don't think the Twins are in a position today where making a trade like that makes sense.

I don't agree but respect your opinion. Like death and taxes there are always different players to sign and trade for. It's not often the best player at their respective position is available... It would be one of many opportunities missed over time.

[yarnivek1972]

I think I may have had a change of heart. Not regarding 2018. I still think too much underperformance and non-performance to be a genuine contender.

 

Beyond might be a different scenario. I’m far from convinced that Sano and/or Buxton will ever be 5 bWAR or higher players consistently. However, they might. I guess I’ve decided it makes sense to be ready if they do get their acts together in the next couple years.

 

Realmuto by himself (even with a fully functional Sano and Buxton) won’t put the Twins ahead of the elite AL teams. The Twins need to use their surplus cash and make a bid for the best starting pitcher available this offseason. No, I don’t have any idea who that might be. A right handed power bat would be a help as well.

 

I guess I just came to the conclusion in the worst case scenario (Sano and Buxton both completely bust), you can always flip Realmuto in a couple years and rebuild again.

[S.]

The best starting pitcher this offseason is going to be Kershaw, but there is a 0% chance we get him. After that, Price might be the second best pitcher, and I don't think I'd even want him on this team, given his reputation. After that I'm not really sure who would be the top options, but the quality definitely drops rapidly. The good news is, there are going to be some position players getting really big contracts this upcoming offseason, and there is a possibility that may translate to less big buyers on the FA pitchers not named Kershaw. Or at least one can hope.

[Doomtints]

 

for one year, who is over 30, and is going to miss more than 80% of this year......it's pretty unlikely, imo, he's all that good next year, or healthy, given all that.

 

but, it is possible he's ok next year, and then they need a catcher again.

Nevertheless, he's who the Twins want because of his pitch framing ability. Will Castro's pitch framing decline with age? Seems doubtful.

 

Don't get me wrong. I'm not a Castro fan. I never wanted him here. However, now that he is here, we have to accept it.

 

If it were later in the season and the Twins had a chance to make the playoffs (and win a playoff series), then you make a move like this. This isn't the case.

[USAFChief]

 

I think I may have had a change of heart. Not regarding 2018. I still think too much underperformance and non-performance to be a genuine contender.

Beyond might be a different scenario. I’m far from convinced that Sano and/or Buxton will ever be 5 bWAR or higher players consistently. However, they might. I guess I’ve decided it makes sense to be ready if they do get their acts together in the next couple years.

Realmuto by himself (even with a fully functional Sano and Buxton) won’t put the Twins ahead of the elite AL teams. The Twins need to use their surplus cash and make a bid for the best starting pitcher available this offseason. No, I don’t have any idea who that might be. A right handed power bat would be a help as well.

I guess I just came to the conclusion in the worst case scenario (Sano and Buxton both completely bust), you can always flip Realmuto in a couple years and rebuild again.

That's the thing...they might as well proceed under the assumption Sano/Buxton are going to pan out. If they do, they need a supporting cast.

 

If they don't, start over. You'd be starting over anyway.

[Shaitan]

I feel like a good-hitting catcher is almost as likely to break down as going after a pitcher.

 

I guess the odds of Realmuto breaking down while still under this contract are still low, but I wouldn't bet the farm on him igniting the puddle of mediocrity we've seen this year from the Twins.

 

As yarnivek1972 said above, this roster isn't quite there yet. The Astros can burn through their farm system. The Twins can't even think about that until they're capable of winning a playoff series.

[jorgenswest]

If the Twins want Realmuto, the conversation starts with Lewis. I still think the Marlins take Tucker over Lewis so it needs to be Lewis plus someone significant.

 

It’s the cost of getting a player that is among the best at his position.

 

One if the benefits of great prospects is trade currency. The Twins have failed to cash-in any of those chips.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Nevertheless, he's who the Twins want because of his pitch framing ability. Will Castro's pitch framing decline with age? Seems doubtful.

 

Don't get me wrong. I'm not a Castro fan. I never wanted him here. However, now that he is here, we have to accept it.

 

If it were later in the season and the Twins had a chance to make the playoffs (and win a playoff series), then you make a move like this. This isn't the case.

 

Problem with castro is he has one year left on his deal, and given his injury, it's very reasonable to think he may not play in 2019 either.

 

Worst case, you option Garver and go with Realmuto/Castro. Best case, Castro comes back well and you have a potential trade chip at the deadline if the season doesn't go well or well above average catching production contributing to said great season. Worst case, you're going into 2019 with Realmuto/Garver.

[Doomtints]

 

Problem with castro is he has one year left on his deal, and given his injury, it's very reasonable to think he may not play in 2019 either.

 

Worst case, you option Garver and go with Realmuto/Castro. Best case, Castro comes back well and you have a potential trade chip at the deadline if the season doesn't go well or well above average catching production contributing to said great season. Worst case, you're going into 2019 with Realmuto/Garver.

 

True, I just don't see the Twins doing it.

[Brandon]

I am all for trading for a C for a ryn this seaaon. The offense needs all the help it can get. My first preference is Ramos cause he would cost significantly less. But Realmuto is one I would want too. Especially if we can sign him to a 4 year extention after the season with all our payroll flexibilty so he can be here for the duration of our contention window. Also our DH sux so he can fill in there 20 - 30 games a season to get more ABs and play 140 - 150 games a season.

 

I would start a package with Gordon since he is from there and a good marketing draw for them. Killerhoff is on the table or I think they would prefer pitchers. Look at their pitching in the majors and minors its awful. Mejia, Thorpe, May, would give them 3 potential starting pitchers, 2 with major league experience and Businitz to go along with Gordon maybe add Bard and that gives the Marlins 5 pitchers who will likely contribute at the major league level and a local boy who was a first round draft pick to put at 2B. Thats a good haul and doesnt affect our future too much. For shnitz and giggles we could absorb part of a contract for one of their relievers too.

 

Play around with the list of pitchers as there are many to choose from. I choose my list from pitchers that the current regime didnt aquire or have an investment in personally. Bard was already left off 40 man and looks capable in pen, May should be starting not relieving so this is good for him, Mejia was a top 100 propect as was May I think and Gordon and Thorpe had to be close at one point.

[Oxtung]

I am all for trading for a C for a ryn this seaaon. The offense needs all the help it can get. My first preference is Ramos cause he would cost significantly less. But Realmuto is one i would want too. Especially if we can sign him to a 4 year extention after the season with all our payroll flexibilty. Also our DH sux so he can fill in there 20 - 30 games a season to get more ABs. I would start a package with Gordon since he is from there and a good marketing draw for them. Killerhoff is on the table or i think they would prefer pitchers. Mejia, Thorpe, May, and Businitz to go along with Gordon maybe add Bard and that gives the Marlins 5 pitchers who will likely contribute at the major league level and a local boy who was a first round draft pick to put at 2B. Thats a good haul and doesnt affect our future too much.

Miami doesn’t even respond to your text. To get top shelf players you have to give up quality, not quantity.

[Brandon]

Normally i would agree but Miami needs quantity in pitching right now and i have on my list 3 potential 3-5 ranked starting pitchers which go a long way and 2 relievers and a starting 2B. 1 player does not win its a team effort and Miami needs pitching real badly.

 

Also i just mentioned those 5 as a starting point to steer the offer away from offense oriented prospects. These guys are in the high minors and can contribute in short order at the major league level, even this year. We could swap out Thorpe for Enlow, and Bard for Sampson or Poppin if you want to stay with higher rated or more starters.....PLAY with the offer of Pitchers and see if you can come up with one that makes sense.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Miami isn't playing for right now. 

[old nurse]

 

Realmuto will get traded, and it will be for less than Kiriloff and Lewis. 

Yes, but pieces 3 and 4 will be better. The pitching prospects will be of value.

[old nurse]

 

Miami isn't playing for right now. 

The wins are so rare that they could still be out celebrating in Denver.  Not that kind of playing?

[old nurse]

If Trevor May were healthy and starting would he be the new Duensing?