Article: Diving Into The Offseason: A Dozier Extension?

[drjim]

Well, or not. If there isn't a market for him, what's to motivate the team to offer him what he may want or even anything that equals what other 2nd basemen have gotten? Or by 'promising sign' you meant that we can re-sign Dozier to a team-friendly extension without worry that he will say no and resign from his position for FA when the time comes?

Promising to me in that a reasonable extension can be struck between Dozier and the Twins.

 

If he likes it here and there likely won't be multiple good teams pursuing him after next year, perhaps he'll sign.

[beckmt]

I am not saying we can't sign him, i would rather spend the money on front line pitching. Good pitching wins most of the time.  Signing him and getting the core into long term contracts is sending down the path of the 90's Twins or the mid 80's Twins or mid 70's Twins.  Very good hit, very no pitch.

[caninatl04]

Let's see how the second basemen for NYY, LAD and CHC do in the playoffs. If one or more play poorly, there may be a veritable hue and cry for an update that just MAYBE increases Dozier's value.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I would say extend for 3 years at 40 million with a 15 million option year.

 

Why is he taking "bad" FA money to sign here?

[blindeke]

If they were going to extend him, they would have done it when they signed the contract two years ago?

[Thrylos]

 

Let's see how the second basemen for NYY, LAD and CHC do in the playoffs. If one or more play poorly, there may be a veritable hue and cry for an update that just MAYBE increases Dozier's value.

 

LAD could use a second baseman upgrade in the near future. Forsythe was horrible and Uttley will be retiring.   The Cubs have Baez and the Yankees Castro, so it is unlikely that there will be interest there.  The Mets and Diamondbacks need second basemen, as far as contenders go.   So 3 pretty good openings there.

 

 

[Guest]

Seth, I would do the contract you laid out. He's a different player than Kinsler - less defense and average, more power - but Kinsler just had 2.5 WAR at age 35 after three much better years, which means that his contract is a good deal for the team. Actually, for your dollars, four years of 2.5 WAR would be good for the Twins.

 

If Gordon and Polanco look like they, in combination with Dozier, make up three major leaguers for two positions, that can be dealt with then. One could be traded or Dozier could become a primary DH. That's a much better set of problems than worrying about whether Gordon is ready or letting Dozier go for a third round draft pick.

[markos]

 

LAD could use a second baseman upgrade in the near future. Forsythe was horrible and Uttley will be retiring.   The Cubs have Baez and the Yankees Castro, so it is unlikely that there will be interest there.  The Mets and Diamondbacks need second basemen, as far as contenders go.   So 3 pretty good openings there.

I'd add the Angels to your list.

[drjim]

I'd add the Angels to your list.

Angels are the most likely destination if he leaves the Twins.

[sploorp]

Extending a player doesn't mean you can't still trade them after.  The guy hasn't been banged up too much by injuries either, so he should age better than many.  I say go for it.

[Major League Ready]

 

Like it or not, the Twins operate under a self imposed salary cap.
This club needs pitching, and pitching is expensive.
It's hard to imagine a scenario where this extension doesn't interfere with purchasing pitching.

It's not as black and white as simply wanting him to stay or not.

 

Non-profit organizations aside, EVERY business has a salary cap.  Detroit operated for a handful of years with little regard for the bottom line.  Every other pro sports franchise operates within a budget.  The position the Twins are somehow different is an exceptionally simplistic view of the world.

 

I have posted Forbes annual recaps here more than once it is was really quite clear the Twins spending policies were in line with the rest of MLB .  There is an awful lot of completely unsubstantiated rhetoric around this position.  I sure would like to see someone support this position with some form of documentation for once.

[drjim]

Non-profit organizations aside, EVERY business has a salary cap. Detroit operated for a handful of years with little regard for the bottom line. Every other pro sports franchise operates within a budget. The position the Twins are somehow different is an exceptionally simplistic view of the world.

 

I have posted Forbes annual recaps here more than once it is was really quite clear the Twins spending policies were in line with the rest of MLB . There is an awful lot of completely unsubstantiated rhetoric around this position. I sure would like to see someone support this position with some form of documentation for once.

It's a dumb complaint, but also misguided. The way it gets presented in the local media really takes the heat off how mediocre (or worse) a gm both Smith and Ryan were. It's a simple complaint with an easy villain.

 

If we just got a new owner, <shakes fist>, we would finally have a payroll...that is pretty much exactly the same.

[USAFChief]

It's a dumb complaint, but also misguided. The way it gets presented in the local media really takes the heat off how mediocre (or worse) a gm both Smith and Ryan were. It's a simple complaint with an easy villain.

If we just got a new owner, <shakes fist>, we would finally have a payroll...that is pretty much exactly the same.

Do you believe the Twins, over history, have been aggressive with payroll? Or cautious to the point of favoring money over success?

 

It's not a dumb complaint depending on your answer to the above.

 

It's hard to know exact figures, but I know this...the team was purchased for $44M and is now worth something approaching 20 times that amount.

 

SOMEbody thinks the Twins are printing money.

 

I'd also like to know why the Twins needed ~$70M to pay for everything over and above major league payroll in the dome, but immediately needed ~$110M the day they moved into TF. Nobody has ever offered an explanation that doesn't include "they're not actually putting a penny of their own money into TF."

[jimmer]

In 2015, the Twins were tied for 11th in % of revenue put into player salary, putting 49% of revenue back into player salary. 

 

http://i.imgur.com/yPYrkOg.jpg

 

We're usually around that. In the dome, at times, we got quite a bit higher.

 

Salaries for players past their initial controllable years are well past the point of getting ridiculous though.

Edited October 14, 2017 by jimmer

[drjim]

Do you believe the Twins, over history, have been aggressive with payroll? Or cautious to the point of favoring money over success?

 

It's not a dumb complaint depending on your answer to the above.

 

It's hard to know exact figures, but I know this...the team was purchased for $44M and is now worth something approaching 20 times that amount.

 

SOMEbody thinks the Twins are printing money.

 

I'd also like to know why the Twins needed ~$70M to pay for everything over and above major league payroll in the dome, but immediately needed ~$110M the day they moved into TF. Nobody has ever offered an explanation that doesn't include "they're not actually putting a penny of their own money into TF."

I think they have been pretty much exactly like the majority of mlb teams. All available evidence points to this.

[drjim]

For the other questions, this has been discussed, but they now pay all operating expenses and upgrades at Target Field, and they have upgraded facilities in Florida and DR and elsewhere. And expenses always go up through simple inflation.

[USAFChief]

As to the topic, I still don't think it's wise to extend a Dozier. Regardless my position on salary.

[USAFChief]

For the other questions, this has been discussed, but they now pay all operating expenses and upgrades at Target Field, and they have upgraded facilities in Florida and DR and elsewhere. And expenses always go up through simple inflation.

They also now get all advertising and suite revenue, which they didn't get in the dome. Seems like, at worse, a wash.

 

The Florida facilities upgrade cost the Twins $13.8m (part of which is increased rent payments). http://m.mlb.com/news/article/40185098//

 

The Dominican upgrade cost them $9m. https://puckettspond.com/2017/01/20/minnesota-twins-open-baseball-academy-dominican-republic/

 

Try again.

 

With that, I'm going to suggest we take this elsewhere.

[mnfireman]

Another thing to remember about a Dozier extension, Pohlad still loves Joe Mauer, like it or not (I like it), and another contract for him may signify an end to Dozier's time in MN. The 1B market that year is weak and I don't think the Twins want to move Sano (just my thoughts, I have no idea) unless Mauer leaves or retires.

[jimmer]

 

Another thing to remember about a Dozier extension, Pohlad still loves Joe Mauer, like it or not (I like it), and another contract for him may signify an end to Dozier's time in MN. The 1B market that year is weak and I don't think the Twins want to move Sano (just my thoughts, I have no idea) unless Mauer leaves or retires.

I hope Mauer gets another contract.  His defense and his OBP are valuable.    Obviously he'd need to take a decent pay cut, butt he still has good value.

[drjim]

They also now get all advertising and suite revenue, which they didn't get in the dome. Seems like, at worse, a wash.

 

The Florida facilities upgrade cost the Twins $13.8m (part of which is increased rent payments). http://m.mlb.com/news/article/40185098//

 

The Dominican upgrade cost them $9m. https://puckettspond.com/2017/01/20/minnesota-twins-open-baseball-academy-dominican-republic/

 

Try again.

 

With that, I'm going to suggest we take this elsewhere.

I appreciate digging into the specific numbers, but before I become think more negatively about payroll spending, I would like to see at least some evidence that the Twins operate in a manner different from the vast majority of teams in the league, either in revenue/payroll split or in a failure to fully reinvest franchise value appreciation. I'm highly, highly, highly skeptical that can be shown. I would guess the typical franchise is even *worse*.

 

If ownership allocates an appropriate amount of resources (based on revenue level), which by all available evidence they do, I put the onus on the front office to win.

[drjim]

Another thing to remember about a Dozier extension, Pohlad still loves Joe Mauer, like it or not (I like it), and another contract for him may signify an end to Dozier's time in MN. The 1B market that year is weak and I don't think the Twins want to move Sano (just my thoughts, I have no idea) unless Mauer leaves or retires.

There is enough to go around, assuming the Mauer contract is reasonable.

[Blackjack]

What other teams are going to offer an aging second baseman a five contract??

 

Offer him a decent three year extension, if he takes it great, if not use the money on pitching.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

It is funny to me that so often we hear about how people think that because the Twins got a new stadium that they would be able to keep their stars. Brian Dozier is a star, and yet of the first six comments, five of them say to just let him go elsewhere.

 

And while I understand the thinking for any player over 32, and I get that Polanco can move to 2B and Nick Gordon could be ready for SS in 2019... I wonder if people realize just how good Dozier has been. Even if he takes one WAR off over the next couple of years, there's value in having him the next couple of years.

 

I would LOVE to see them sign him to just a two-year extension, but there's no reason for him to do that. Are you going to get 4 WAR out of Polanco or Gordon in 2019 and 2020? Will you get that between the two of them? I don't know...

 

I'm not saying that the answer 100% is to sign him to an extension... but I don't think the answer can be not to just because he is going to be 32 (or 35 at the end).

the problem with the first deal is it didn’t buy his first year or two of free agency.

 

Now, he’s already declining defensively. Extending him 3-4 years makes no sense. 1-2 years extension makes perfect sense, but is entirely unrealistic. Brian Dozier wants and rightfully deserves a long term payday.

 

With the needs at pitcher and the likelihood of the contract becoming painful before the Twins truly contend, I can see why the FO would pass.

 

Not that I want to see him leave after 2018, I want to see him leave after 2019 or 2020.

[rv78]

Give him what he wants. Most productive hitter in the lineup the last 2 years. Need to keep a leader and veteran in the dugout for all of the youngsters they have now. If Mauer is worth $23M Dozier is worth just as much or more.

[Mr. Brooks]

Non-profit organizations aside, EVERY business has a salary cap. Detroit operated for a handful of years with little regard for the bottom line. Every other pro sports franchise operates within a budget. The position the Twins are somehow different is an exceptionally simplistic view of the world.

 

I have posted Forbes annual recaps here more than once it is was really quite clear the Twins spending policies were in line with the rest of MLB . There is an awful lot of completely unsubstantiated rhetoric around this position. I sure would like to see someone support this position with some form of documentation for once.

Where did I claim, or even imply that the Twins operate differently?

 

I dont think they can afford pitching AND the example Dozier extension, that's all.

 

I prefaced it because otherwise someone would have eventually responded, "no salary cap in baseball", not because I was ripping the teams spending.