Top 100 Prospects

[Baseball Bat]

After the trade deadline I had some time and ranked my top 100 Twins prospects. For references I used fangraphs, BA, MLB Pipeline, Twins Daily's prospect handbook, other available scouting reports, and 2017 performance. Some of these could have changed recently as this list is about 2 weeks old. Just thought I would post to get feedback

 

Rnk Pos. First Last Age
1 SS Royce Lewis 18
2 SS Nick Gordon 21
3 RHP Fernando Romero 22
4 LHP Stephen Gonsalves 23
5 OF Alex Kirilloff 19
6 OF Brent Rooker 22
7 SS Wander Javier 18
8 LHP Tyler Jay 23
9 RHP Blayne Enlow 18
10 RHP Kohl Stewart 23
11 RHP Felix Jorge 23
12 OF Zack Granite 24
13 1B Lewin Diaz 20
14 3B Travis Blankenhorn 21
15 RHP Zack Littell 22
16 RHP Nick Burdi 24
17 C Mitch Garver 26
18 LHP Lewis Thorpe 21
19 RHP J.T. Chargois 26
20 C Ben Rortvedt 19
21 RHP Brusdar Graterol 18
22 LHP Tyler Watson 20
23 OF Daniel Palka 25
24 RHP Jake Reed 24
25 OF LaMonte Wade 23
26 RHP Landon Leach 18
27 SS Jelfry Marte 16
28 RHP Trevor  Hildenberger 26
29 SS Jermaine Palacios 21
30 OF Akil Baddoo 18
31 LHP Dietrich Enns 26
32 3B Andrew Bechtold 21
33 LHP Gabriel Moya 22
34 SS Ricardo De La Torre 18
35 RHP John Curtiss 24
36 LHP Lachlan Wells 20
37 OF Jaylin Davis 23
38 LHP Randy Rosario 23
39 RHP Aaron Slegers 24
40 RHP Eduardo Del Rosario 22
41 2B Luis Arraez 20
42 LHP Mason Melotakis 26
43 3B Jose Miranda 19
44 LHP Andrew Vasquez 23
45 LHP Ryley Widell 20
46 SS Engelb Vielma 23
47 RHP Luke Bard 26
48 3B Nelson Molina 22
49 RHP Alan Busenitz 26
50 OF Aaron Whitefield 20
51 LHP Charlie Barnes 21
52 1B Amaurys Minier 21
53 RHP Tom Hackimer 23
54 3B Trey Cabbage 20
55 RHP Jordan Balazovic 18
56 1B Zander Wiel 24
57 RHP Tyler Benninghoff 19
58 OF Tanner English 24
59 RHP Griffin Jax 22
60 SS Brandon Lopez 23
61 RHP Cody Stashek 23
62 RHP Williams Ramirez 25
63 LHP Bryan Sammons 22
64 OF Edgar Corcino 25
65 OF Matt Albanese 22
66 RHP Ryan Eades 25
67 C Rainis Silva 21
68 RHP Sean Poppen 23
69 RHP Zack Jones 26
70 LHP Taylor Clemensia 20
71 3B Niko Goodrum 25
72 RHP D.J. Baxendale 26
73 RHP Dereck Rodriguez 25
74 RHP Calvin Faucher 21
75 LHP Michael Theofanopoulos 24
76 2B Levi Michael 26
77 OF Jean Carlos Arias 19
78 RHP Pedro Garcia 22
79 OF Travis Harrison 24
80 RHP Tyler Wells 22
81 RHP Colton Davis 23
82 LHP Alex Robinson 22
83 OF Humberto Maldonado 19
84 LHP Sam Clay 24
85 RHP Alex Schick 22
86 OF Roni Tapia 20
87 RHP Johan Quezada 22
88 RHP Hector Lujan 22
89 LHP Jovani Moran 20
90 OF Shane Carrier 21
91 3B Chris Paul 24
92 SS Sean Miller 22
93 LHP David Hurlbut 27
94 RHP Nick Anderson 27
95 OF Max Murphy 24
96 RHP Clark Beeker 24
97 RHP Todd Van Steensel 26
98 RHP Ryan Mason 22
99 C Brian  Navarreto 22
100 SS Jordan Gore 23

[drjim]

Alex Schick over Johan Quezada? Not sure about that.

[beckmt]

Might have Moya, Curtiss and Slegers all higher.  They have all proformed well closer to the major leagues and not gotten the chance for playing much in Minnesota yet.

[gunnarthor]

These things are hard to do so bravo but I'd have Baddoo, Miranda and Bechtold all in the top 20. I might put Baddoo in the top 10. Barnes is also too low.

 

Chargois, Littell and Burdi are too high.

[benji21]

Alex Schick over Johan Quezada? Not sure about that.

Hahahaha.

 

Nice list. There are some potential gems all along the way!

[Mike Sixel]

Thorpe should be much higher. But this is an amazing list! Wow.

[drivlikejehu]

The Twins don't have 100 "prospects." So I wouldn't try to rank that many,

[108Stitches]

Tyler Wells at 80? Lol. You must not have seen him pitch. Yeah he's been on the DL too much but his K percentage is the 6th best in ALL of minor league baseball and his stuff is filthy. And Beeker at 96 and Del Rosario at 40? Not agreeing with much of anything past the top 10 frankly. The rest seem very random.

[The Wise One]

Hildenberger is being used late in games at the major league level when the outcome is in doubt. Busenitz is getting closer to that role.  They are far down on a just formulated prospect list. What does a player have to do to get respect. 

[Baseball Bat]

Thanks for the feedback everyone. Would like to continue to do this 3 or 4 times a year as a good exercise. Found that through this I've discovered guys that I've previously never heard of. This is my first go around and will definitely use this input going forward on where I do my research and analysis. As some of you have pointed out, I just haven't had the opportunity to see some of these guys play at all and I rely on scouting reports / statistics to project. In this future I hope to be able to see more play in person. Sorry to let you down @108Stitches.

[Baseball Bat]

 

Hildenberger is being used late in games at the major league level when the outcome is in doubt. Busenitz is getting closer to that role.  They are far down on a just formulated prospect list. What does a player have to do to get respect. 

I would agree. This list was finished on about August 3rd, both would be moved up in my mind in a newer ranking. 

[DocBauer]

AS much as I follow the Twins milb system, there are guys, with talent, in the lower levels that I just don't know enough about to attempt something like this. Ignoring age and level alone, how do you evaluate guys currently injured vs what they might be when healthy again? And is a potentially high quality bullpen arm really a lesser prospect than a low level SP prospect or quality position player or quality reserve who could develop in to a daily player.

 

 

Its a tremendous exercise and I applaud you for taking the time to do it.

 

Palacios and Badoo are probably too low. Same with Whitefield. Harrison and Michael too high. Moya ahead of Curtiss? Why? Because he's 2 years younger and LH? Not disagreeing with you or asking for explanations as to your choices. Simply re-interating how difficult this to put something like this together. I thank you for the effort involved!

[Baseball Bat]

 

AS much as I follow the Twins milb system, there are guys, with talent, in the lower levels that I just don't know enough about to attempt something like this. Ignoring age and level alone, how do you evaluate guys currently injured vs what they might be when healthy again? And is a potentially high quality bullpen arm really a lesser prospect than a low level SP prospect or quality position player or quality reserve who could develop in to a daily player.


Its a tremendous exercise and I applaud you for taking the time to do it.

Palacios and Badoo are probably too low. Same with Whitefield. Harrison and Michael too high. Moya ahead of Curtiss? Why? Because he's 2 years younger and LH? Not disagreeing with you or asking for explanations as to your choices. Simply re-interating how difficult this to put something like this together. I thank you for the effort involved!

 

You've highlighted some of the issues and dilemmas I had when I made this. I think a natural bias I personally have is a higher ceiling guy. For example, I probably have Rooker, Enlow, and Burdi higher than most. I still think that if healthy, Burdi could be the best reliever in the system, but that is a big big if. One problem I have with MLB Pipeline is I think they tend to overreact to injuries like Tommy John. That surgery appears to be a one time thing where guys often are back to 100% a year or two later. I'd much rather a prospect have Tommy John than constant shoulder issues. I also tend to undervalue low strikeout guys that are having success. This is why I have guys like Slegers and Beeker lower than most. However, both of those guys have been on a tear in the last 3 weeks and would both move up in a newer ranking (Beeker would move up a lot). I think a lot of Twins fans have this same bias since we've watched low K guys for years eventually get lit up and flame out (Gibson, Blackburn, and Slowey all come to mind). Then I face a dilemma like Griffin Jax. He is a borderline top 30 guy IMO if he is still in the system. But now he is on a two year leave with the Air Force. So what happens when he returns? I'd say that's pretty uncharted territory. 

I will release another ranking after the season ends so expect some changes. Might even add in a sentence or two on each guy. 

[snap4birds]

 

You've highlighted some of the issues and dilemmas I had when I made this. I think a natural bias I personally have is a higher ceiling guy. For example, I probably have Rooker, Enlow, and Burdi higher than most. I still think that if healthy, Burdi could be the best reliever in the system, but that is a big big if. 

With a big list like this, I wonder if it wouldn't help to break it up into 'age groups'.  Say 16-20, 21-24, 24+ or something like that.  When they're younger, you're looking for high ceiling talents, when they're 24+, you're hoping they're knocking at the door or already contributing to the MLB team.  And no one would question why you have Jean Carlos Arias ahead of Travis Harrison, or Brusdar Graterol ahead of Trevor Hildenberger....

To me, that seems to be the hardest part about a list like this, how do you compare someone who's been in the org for 5 years against someone in the rookie leagues...

[bluechipper]

Travis Harrison is about 22 spots too high. Batting .221 in 318 AA games means you're no longer a prospect, especially when his main tool was supposed to be his offense. It's weird that he's gotten worse each year at the same level.

[bluechipper]

My big issue with this list is Jermaine Palacios at 29. He's hitting a combined .312/.346/.478 (.825) with 13 HRs and 19 SBs this year at 20 years old, and it sounds like he's got a chance at sticking at SS. He's probably a top 10 prospect for me.

[Baseball Bat]

 

With a big list like this, I wonder if it wouldn't help to break it up into 'age groups'.  Say 16-20, 21-24, 24+ or something like that.  When they're younger, you're looking for high ceiling talents, when they're 24+, you're hoping they're knocking at the door or already contributing to the MLB team.  And no one would question why you have Jean Carlos Arias ahead of Travis Harrison, or Brusdar Graterol ahead of Trevor Hildenberger....

To me, that seems to be the hardest part about a list like this, how do you compare someone who's been in the org for 5 years against someone in the rookie leagues...

Exactly right. It's extremely difficult. Like how do you quantify Ryley Widell, Barnes, Bechtold and De La Torre? I'm pretty high on all of them, but comparing them to like Mitch Garver who has a massive body of work is very hard. I think that is an excellent idea. I might do something like that once the season is over and performance / age / level isn't constantly changing. 

[Twins33]

Travis Harrison is about 22 spots too high. Batting .221 in 318 AA games means you're no longer a prospect, especially when his main tool was supposed to be his offense. It's weird that he's gotten worse each year at the same level.

Doesnt matter anymore. He's been released.

 

 

https://twitter.com/sethtweets/status/898988159555350528

[gunnarthor]

Bummer for him. I remember after he pounded 15 HRs in A ball that he might be an exciting prospect. Just never came together for him. Best of luck on his future.

[clutterheart]

 

These things are hard to do so bravo but I'd have Baddoo, Miranda and Bechtold all in the top 20. I might put Baddoo in the top 10. Barnes is also too low.

 

Chargois, Littell and Burdi are too high.

 

Agree on all counts. Nice List!  

 

I also think Kirilloff has fallen to the bottom of the top 10. Nothing against him and its probably recency bias, but the org has a lot of high ceiling guys who are just as young who had really nice years.

Jay at #8 feels too high as he is a bullpen arm now.  

I would also have Ryley Widell in the 20 - 25 range.  

 

Kyle Edelbrock did a nice right up on him:

https://www.twinkietown.com/2017/6/13/15794978/minnesota-twins-select-ryley-widell-in-the-seventh-7-round-of-the-2017-mlb-draft

 

 

[jsteve96]

This took a lot of effort so I'm gonna say nice job first! Brusdar Graterol is a top 10 prospect and Akil Baddoo probably is too. Kohl Stewart should be about 10 spots lower I think. also think Wander Javier should be right around 3 or 4.  These lists are based off Potential and projection. Zack granite obviously plays in the big leagues but i'd say his potential is way to low to be up there. at best he has a .700 OPS and is a 4th outfielder. To me a guy like Lamonte Wade should be ahead of him because he's got much more potential with the bat. Lewis Thorpe also should be around 10 or so. maybe switch him and Kohl. Tyler Jay probably shouldn't be in the top 20 even, his draft bonus will effect how high he is on those lists though i'm sure..