The Trade to Come

[Mike Sixel]

 

Berrios was thought to have great talent and an advanced approach right from the beginning. I think Twins coaches did a good job...not screwing him up. 

 

?

 

He wasn't even a first round pick, and he was just "don't screw him up" away from being a great MLB pitcher?

 

?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I thought last year was a pretty good indication that Esco was better as a utility guy than an everyday SS - hit less than .250 when playing SS last year and had a .970 fielding percentage.

 

Good guy to have around, but I don't he's best suited to have an every day position.

 

Esco was hurt last year. If you're arguing that the injury was due to him playing everyday, perhaps... but far too many regulars get hurt consistently to have that kind of conclusion. I, for one, am not ready to declare Escobar a utility only guy. Now I certainly could be wrong, but it will take more than one injury for me to conclude he's a utility guy, especially given how good he was in 2015 when he took over the starting role.

[gil4]

 

Berrios was drafted and developed internally.

I think all of his examples were. (Viola was drafted by the Twins, wasn't he?)  Heck, how does he remember what Viola had when he came into the system - I sure don't.  I vaguely remember Blyleven as a rookie, but I definitely don't remember his brief minor league time. I'm not sure how much of a trend we can establish based upon a few examples over a 45+ year period. 

[gil4]

 

?

 

He wasn't even a first round pick, and he was just "don't screw him up" away from being a great MLB pitcher?

 

?

He was a "don't let his small frame break down" away from being a #2 starter.  He was too small to pick #1 and too good to let slide too far.

[jimbo92107]

 

?

 

He wasn't even a first round pick, and he was just "don't screw him up" away from being a great MLB pitcher?

 

?

Berrios was selected in the supplemental first round in 2012, after they picked a high school kid, Kohl Stewart fourth overall. Stewart was considered the best pitcher-athlete in the draft...Texas A&M wanted him to succeed Johnny Manziel at QB...but even then Berrios was known for being an intense, competitive, ambitious, talented teenage pitcher in Puerto Rico. I believe he was the highest drafted pitcher ever from PR at that time. 

 

Right away it became clear that Berrios already was a talented pitcher, where Stewart needed to learn how to do something more than just throw a baseball hard. What became clear was that of the two, Berrios probably would advance faster than Stewart, though estimates of their ceilings varied quite a bit. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/José_Berríos

 

Now we know which of the two looks like a better pitcher all around - the kid that already knew how to pitch. Kohl Stewart still may become a starter, but he looks like a mid-rotation guy. Berrios is a front liner. Of the two, the one that learned the fundamentals of pitching from Twins coaches was Stewart. The one that learned higher-level strategy was Berrios, but he already knew how to get guys out with more than just a fastball. Berrios already had a snappy curve and a developing change-up. 

 

Honestly, I can't say for sure what the problem is with the Twins system, but it seems rare for them to develop a pitcher "from scratch" as in taking an excellent athlete with a live arm and making him an ace, or even an ace prospect. Maybe it's like great QB's in the NFL - they need to be great passers from early on, because it's almost impossible to increase a guy's accuracy if it isn't already there. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Berrios was selected in the supplemental first round in 2012, after they picked a high school kid, Kohl Stewart fourth overall. Stewart was considered the best pitcher-athlete in the draft...Texas A&M wanted him to succeed Johnny Manziel at QB...but even then Berrios was known for being an intense, competitive, ambitious, talented teenage pitcher in Puerto Rico. I believe he was the highest drafted pitcher ever from PR at that time. 

 

Right away it became clear that Berrios already was a talented pitcher, where Stewart needed to learn how to do something more than just throw a baseball hard. What became clear was that of the two, Berrios probably would advance faster than Stewart, though estimates of their ceilings varied quite a bit. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/José_Berríos

 

Now we know which of the two looks like a better pitcher all around - the kid that already knew how to pitch. Kohl Stewart still may become a starter, but he looks like a mid-rotation guy. Berrios is a front liner. Of the two, the one that learned the fundamentals of pitching from Twins coaches was Stewart. The one that learned higher-level strategy was Berrios, but he already knew how to get guys out with more than just a fastball. Berrios already had a snappy curve and a developing change-up. 

 

Honestly, I can't say for sure what the problem is with the Twins system, but it seems rare for them to develop a pitcher "from scratch" as in taking an excellent athlete with a live arm and making him an ace, or even an ace prospect. Maybe it's like great QB's in the NFL - they need to be great passers from early on, because it's almost impossible to increase a guy's accuracy if it isn't already there. 

 

We got Gonsalves that year too... another 1st round talent that fell due to character issues. It's a bit ironic that the 1-4 pick is certainly questionable at this point, but our supplemental first rounder pick and 4th rounder are looking like real options.

[jimbo92107]

 

?

 

He wasn't even a first round pick, and he was just "don't screw him up" away from being a great MLB pitcher?

 

?

Yes, Berrios was destined to be a great pitcher unless whatever team drafted him screwed him up.

 

All credit to the Twins for resisting the impulse to make young Jose Berrios a typical Twins "pitch to contact" boring pitcher. When you see the real deal, it's important not to tinker with a good thing. Kudos for not making Miguel Sano a contact hitter, too. Sorry about Kennys Vargas...

 

Berrios was taken in the supplemental first round of the 2012 draft, after Kohl Stewart. Both guys were about the same age, but one was already a crafty, talented young pitcher, while the other was a great all-around athlete. Recall that Stewart, like Joe Mauer, was regarded as a great QB talent, recruited by Texas A&M to succeed Johnny Football. 

 

When both young men hit the minors, the focus for Stewart was learning how to throw something other than a fastball for strikes, and then how to command his off-speed pitches. Berrios already had a hard curve and a developing change up to go with his mid-90's fastball, and he had much better command than Stewart right off. Berrios was mowing guys down with his curve and change before Stewart learned how to throw them for consistent strikes. 

 

Fast forward five years, and we see the result. Stewart has learned how to throw an average curve ball, no idea about his change up. His fastball probably is more accurate, but his velocity has actually gone down, not up. Meanwhile, Berrios is striking guys out in the bigs with three plus pitches, all of which he was striking guys out with before he was drafted. 

 

Again, kudos to the Twins for not screwing up Berrios. They focused on refining his pitches, not changing them. They worked with him on strategy and fitness, but they let him continue to be himself. 

 

If you look at the results of "manufactured" pitchers, look at Kohl Stewart and Derrick Rodriguez. Good heat, average curve, maybe a mid rotation guy. The great ones, almost always have something special, as a pitcher, before they are drafted. Not talking about a high-90's fastball, either. I'm talking about the craft of pitching. If they don't show that early, they probably won't ever have it. 

[Mr. Brooks]

Berrios was thought to have great talent and an advanced approach right from the beginning. I think Twins coaches did a good job...not screwing him up.

Well your whole argument was based on not developing Gibson- who was far more advanced and polished when drafted than Berrios.

 

Its ok to say the Twins have struggled to develop pitching - they have! But using one of their rare successes against them just spoils your (otherwise legit) argument.

[Brandon]

Kohl Stewart and Stephan Gonzales were drafted in 2013 i think not 2012. Buxton was our first rounder that year and Berrios came in the supplement first round.

[bighat]

Nothing wrong with being hopeful.

 

But I do understand the cynicism as well. Lots of these "we should trade XYZ" posts suggest trading all of our underperfoming/bad players for good ones. Alas, if we Twins fans coming off a 103 loss season think a player is bad, you can trust that other GMs think it as well.

[drjim]

Unless they completely collapse I would be very surpised if the Twins don't add another piece before the deadline. Likely a rental reliever.

 

And if they hang around into August, could see another reliever and a veteran dh.

[bluechipper]

 

What makes you think Escobar cannot handle SS full time? Polanco has no power and no glove. He might be 4 years younger and has some upside. He could also turn out to be Danny Santana. It would be great to trade Polanco for Hand. I am not sure any team would want him though.

A couple things: First is the eye test showing that Escobar has not been good in the field, and he doesn't have near enough range for an everyday SS. The second is Escobar usually has made well over half his starts at SS in previous seasons, but the fact that Molitor has only put him at SS in 9 out of his 57 starts despite the regular starter hitting in the .210's should tell you something.

[GP830]

I'm beginning to get a little suspicious of Buxton's situation. I anticipated he would be sent down for a spell following his DL stint, and come back with a leg kick and dominate the league for the last part of the season. But now migraines? This new brass hasn't been afraid to use the DL to their advantage, and I'm wondering if they're doing some creative shifting for Buck right now, for some unknown reason.

 

 

[nicksaviking]

The Twins could be 5.5 back of Cleveland and 4 back of the Wild Card after tonight then head to Oakland where their best two starters will be riding the pine.

 

Just hypothetical, but if the Twins happen to be 49-54, you have to think they become sellers. However if they happen to be 49-54, that means there will be less than 24 hours until the trade deadline.

 

Even if the FO is on the fence, I wouldn't be surprised if we start hearing rumors that the Twins are now considering selling, even if it's the FO doing their due diligence and getting their ducks in a row in case of a quick end of July collapse.

 

Tonight is going to be a big game for Santana and the Twins.

[bluechipper]

 

I'm beginning to get a little suspicious of Buxton's situation. I anticipated he would be sent down for a spell following his DL stint, and come back with a leg kick and dominate the league for the last part of the season. But now migraines? This new brass hasn't been afraid to use the DL to their advantage, and I'm wondering if they're doing some creative shifting for Buck right now, for some unknown reason.

I doubt it. He was hitting really well before he got hurt. The only possibility I could think of is they wanted to get a couple extra games to look at Granite before sending him down.

[drjim]

 

The Twins could be 5.5 back of Cleveland and 4 back of the Wild Card after tonight then head to Oakland where their best two starters will be riding the pine.

 

Just hypothetical, but if the Twins happen to be 49-54, you have to think they become sellers. However if they happen to be 49-54, that means there will be less than 24 hours until the trade deadline.

 

Even if the FO is on the fence, I wouldn't be surprised if we start hearing rumors that the Twins are now considering selling, even if it's the FO doing their due diligence and getting their ducks in a row in case of a quick end of July collapse.

 

Tonight is going to be a big game for Santana and the Twins.

 

If they lose the next 4 games, and would be riding a 7 game losing streak, that would definitely change the calculus.

[kab21]

 

The Twins could be 5.5 back of Cleveland and 4 back of the Wild Card after tonight then head to Oakland where their best two starters will be riding the pine.

 

Just hypothetical, but if the Twins happen to be 49-54, you have to think they become sellers. However if they happen to be 49-54, that means there will be less than 24 hours until the trade deadline.

 

Even if the FO is on the fence, I wouldn't be surprised if we start hearing rumors that the Twins are now considering selling, even if it's the FO doing their due diligence and getting their ducks in a row in case of a quick end of July collapse.

 

Tonight is going to be a big game for Santana and the Twins.

So what happens if they sweep Oakland? I find it odd that people seem to secretly be wishing for the Twins to collapse so they can validate their months of 'this team isn't very good' so we have to sell now.

 

Perhaps it isn't you but this has been a common theme (just wait until...) in threads. Honestly I don't think they are >.500 good (look at the pitching staff) but I am not going to tank a team playing well against all odds.

[Mike Sixel]

 

So what happens if they sweep Oakland? I find it odd that people seem to secretly be wishing for the Twins to collapse so they can validate their months of 'this team isn't very good' so we have to sell now.

 

Perhaps it isn't you but this has been a common theme (just wait until...) in threads. Honestly I don't think they are >.500 good (look at the pitching staff) but I am not going to tank a team playing well against all odds.

 

much like the "we can't trade X" because, wait for it, they'll be really good next year, for the last three years, posts. 

 

no one is wishing for the Twins to be bad. 

[laloesch]

 

All along The FO has been saying "Contollable" and yet we did not get that in this week moves. I say yet...

Here's what I'm seeing:
Gibson has never met his potential and some team is going to think they can fix him. I'm shopping that
We have 5 catchers on the 40 and someone will want one of them. I'm shopping Murphy, Gimenez, Recker as backups.
We have two utility infielders and with Polanco, the 3 are splitting the short stop position Gordon is wanting to claim. I'm talking to teams about all 3 and Dozier. Someone needs to leave and make room for the future.
I'm willing to listen to anyone interested in Rosario, Granite, or Grossman.
Ok, so most of that is going too bring back anything too exciting but can it get a good controllable relief pitcher? Sure. Prospects gained can also be packaged and flipped. But I also see the FO setting themselves up with the flexibility to do these things. I think it's gonna be a fun weekend waiting too see who blinks and what will be coming our way. Something will happen.

 

To me there seems to be a common theme being echoed on these forums (not picking on your post in particular) that Rosario should be traded or moved to the bench.  Yeah i know he had a slow start to the season, but I just don't see the need to do so at this point.  

 

He's young, he's hitting well and outperforming his fellow outfielders by a mile offensively (although Kepler is have an okay year too).  If were gonna listen to offers on Rosario, Granite and Grossman (whose really a DH), then you listen to offers on Buxton as well.  I just don't think he's untouchable based on his level of play so far.

[nicksaviking]

 

So what happens if they sweep Oakland? I find it odd that people seem to secretly be wishing for the Twins to collapse so they can validate their months of 'this team isn't very good' so we have to sell now.

 

Perhaps it isn't you but this has been a common theme (just wait until...) in threads. Honestly I don't think they are >.500 good (look at the pitching staff) but I am not going to tank a team playing well against all odds.

 

My point was only that prior to the deadline, before we know what their record will be come July 31, we may start hearing rumors of the Twins selling, and only because the front office would be and should be covering all the bases.

 

I bring it up as the Twins were "buyers" just two days ago and could still be at .500 after tonight. I mentioned it because I'm guessing a lot of people would be upset to hear rumors of selling even if it's good business to at least have a game plan for all scenarios.

[Rosterman]

Come 2018 - ALL the names above won't have roster spots. Okay, maybe one or two. But that is WHAT the Twins should be looking at. Getting something for someone that has no business being given playing time come spring training 2019 because there are others in the run, you will be BUYING someone, whatever. Again, the August waiver wire will be interesting. At most, the Twins will get still more of that treasured player commodity they love -- CASH!

[goulik]

To me there seems to be a common theme being echoed on these forums (not picking on your post in particular) that Rosario should be traded or moved to the bench.  Yeah i know he had a slow start to the season, but I just don't see the need to do so at this point.  

 

He's young, he's hitting well and outperforming his fellow outfielders by a mile offensively (although Kepler is have an okay year too).  If were gonna listen to offers on Rosario, Granite and Grossman (whose really a DH), then you listen to offers on Buxton as well.  I just don't think he's untouchable based on his level of play so far.

Don't get me wrong on my Rosario inclusion. Honestly, my untouchables on the team start and stop with Sano/Berrios. I'm a big believer in Buxton and I am convinced he will figure things out and be a perenial all star one day but he's not yet in That same untouchable range. Right now would be selling low on him though so, like Mauer, were not trading him now. I also didn't include Castro in the Catcher conversation because I don't see the FO parting with him.

 

My inclusion of Rosario comes from the idea that after Buxton/Kepler, we have an outfielder to spare. For the long term I think Grossman would be the best trade now guy but for this year, Grossman is a productive bat that would be hard to lose in a playoff run. In other words, my list was based on what I see as the most likely conversations and Why I believe another or more moves will happen.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

To me there seems to be a common theme being echoed on these forums (not picking on your post in particular) that Rosario should be traded or moved to the bench.  Yeah i know he had a slow start to the season, but I just don't see the need to do so at this point.  

 

He's young, he's hitting well and outperforming his fellow outfielders by a mile offensively (although Kepler is have an okay year too).  If were gonna listen to offers on Rosario, Granite and Grossman (whose really a DH), then you listen to offers on Buxton as well.  I just don't think he's untouchable based on his level of play so far.

 

I'm not sure about the bench. Rosario, right now, is better than average. That's not a bench player.

 

Now that said, with the depth in our system (Granite, Palka, etc.), I would be fine moving Rosario for legit SP help with similar results upside..  but for nothing... no, not really.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm beginning to get a little suspicious of Buxton's situation. I anticipated he would be sent down for a spell following his DL stint, and come back with a leg kick and dominate the league for the last part of the season. But now migraines? This new brass hasn't been afraid to use the DL to their advantage, and I'm wondering if they're doing some creative shifting for Buck right now, for some unknown reason.

Buxton has options, so there is no need for the FO to play DL games with him.