Article: Deadline Primer: Should Nick Gordon Be On The Table?

[Mike Sixel]

BTW, Fangraphs has Chris Archer as the 16th most valuable trade piece right now.....

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-trade-value-11-to-20/

[SF Twins Fan]

 

The pipeline of SS is actually pretty good right now, with several options between today and Lewis (who will, imo, be an OF within 2 years).

 

If you are going to trade, SS and ok SP is probably the deepest part of the organization to trade from.

 

I understand that, however none of the depth is anywhere close to playing in the MLB.  Vielma is struggling so far at AAA and is mostly a defensive player anyways.  Palacios is having a good season so far, however he has only played 15 games at High A, and will either start next season there or AA.  The rest of the top SS prospects in the Twins system are at A or lower, so all of the "depth" they have isn't really all that close.  Can Polanco and Escobar and Vielma hold down the position for 3 more seasons until these other players are available?

[Mike Sixel]

 

I understand that, however none of the depth is anywhere close to playing in the MLB.  Vielma is struggling so far at AAA and is mostly a defensive player anyways.  Palacios is having a good season so far, however he has only played 15 games at High A, and will either start next season there or AA.  The rest of the top SS prospects in the Twins system are at A or lower, so all of the "depth" they have isn't really all that close.  Can Polanco and Escobar and Vielma hold down the position for 3 more seasons until these other players are available?

 

If you won't give up talent in a trade, you might as well not trade.

 

I don't see how Gordon and no trade is better than Polanco and a trade, frankly, given their alternatives at SP. And I love Gordon more than most.

[Monkeypaws]

Cost-controlled, young and effective starters: the only way you acquire this is with massive overpayment, because the other team has absolutely no reason to trade them.

 

Pie in the sky folks.

[SF Twins Fan]

 

If you won't give up talent in a trade, you might as well not trade.

 

I don't see how Gordon and no trade is better than Polanco and a trade, frankly, given their alternatives at SP. And I love Gordon more than most.

 

I agree the Twins have to give up something good to get the type of pitcher they need at the top of the rotation, however I'd rather them spend money in the offseason on one of the top pitchers available.  Go into next season with a starting rotation of Santana, Berrios, FA Acquisition, Mejia and 5th starter and then make a trade if they need more starting pitching at the trade deadline.  This will allow the Twins time to evaluate Gonsalves and Romero at AAA the second half of this season and to see how close both of them are to having an impact in the MLB next season.

[laloesch]

 

Cost-controlled, young and effective starters: the only way you acquire this is with massive overpayment, because the other team has absolutely no reason to trade them.

 

Pie in the sky folks.

 

I just don't see this front office giving up the talent via trade to bring in effective starters or paying the even higher priced free agents either.  When they did go after free agents they were all reclamation projects.  Nolasco, Hughes, Santana all reclamation projects one step above the scrap heap.  That is the legacy of dumpster diving Terry Ryan.  Nothing will change with this new FO with current ownership still in place just a shuffling of chairs on the deck and more posturing.  Might as well bring back Terry and be content lol.

Edited July 13, 2017 by laloesch

[Mike Sixel]

KLAW ranks Gordon as the 30th best prospect right now. Says he is playing good defense at SS. If that informs anyone's opinion about his value as a trade chip.

[markos]

 

How do you trade Santana and have a respectable rotation next year? Another year of the core 4 cost controlled years down the drain. If you are trading Santana for prospects then you kicking this can down the road a couple more years. Might as well see what you can get for the core 4 then.

The idea is that Santana is replaceable in free agency during the offseason. I know that opinions vary on Santana's future performance, but I'm more on the pessimistic side. Santana is on the books for $13M next year with a $14M team option for 2019. For that amount of money, the Twins should be able to find a reasonable facsimile of 35-36yo Santana. Between Santiago, Perkins and Gibson, the Twins have an additional $18M coming off the books.

 

Obviously the details matter, but I'm thinking something like this scenario:
- trade Santana to the a team (ex. Brewers: logic being that the Brewers could use some pitching help this year, and Santana makes a ready Garza replacement after he leaves in free agency this year) for a pitching prospect that is close but not quite major league ready (ex. Luis Ortiz: top-100 prospect, good-but-not-great 21yo in AA) and another prospect who would be top-30ish in the Twins org.
- this offseason, sign one of the second-tier FA pitchers (Pineda/Lynn/Cobb) to a Jeff Samardzija-esque deal (5yr/~$100M).
- also sign one of the older FA pitchers to 1 or 2 year deal at <$10/yr (Feldman/Estrada/Chavez/Vargas)

 

Going into next year, the rotation is:

Berrios
Pineda/Lynn/Cobb
Feldman/Estrada/Chavez/Vargas
Meija
Gonsalves/Ortiz/Romero

 

While that is no one's idea of an elite rotation, I think it is respectable - at the very least better than what they've rolled out for much of this season. And based of my back-of-the-envelope calculations, they should still have ~$10M-15M left to address the bullpen.

[Mike Sixel]

Quintana to the Cubs, for a LARGE hall.....so he's out.

 

and yes, I posted this in 2 threads. Just making sure...

Edited July 13, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[jorgenswest]

Quintana to the Cubs, for a LARGE hall.....so he's out.

 

and yes, I posted this in 2 threads. Just making sure...

What would it have taken from the Twins system to beat that deal?

[Mike Sixel]

 

What would it have taken from the Twins system to beat that deal?

 

I don't think they could, not on upside. Unless Buxton or Kepler was in the deal.

Edited July 13, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[jimmer]

Quintana to the Cubs, for a LARGE hall.....so he's out.

 

and yes, I posted this in 2 threads. Just making sure...

Cubs have a lot of young talent. They can easily afford what they gave up (only two actually good prospects) and not even sweat it. I think Cease will be a very good MLB pitcher some day though. Hate to see WSox get him. Nice job by the Cubs. Edited July 13, 2017 by jimmer

[laloesch]

 

Quintana to the Cubs, for a LARGE hall.....so he's out.

 

and yes, I posted this in 2 threads. Just making sure...

 

Wow!  If this is what it takes to land a #3 starter there is no way in hell that Falvey and Levine make a similar move such as trading for Sonny Gray before the deadline.  NO WAY!  Just insane!

Edited July 13, 2017 by laloesch

[Minnesotatwins005]

Cubs have traded away a lot of their top prospects the last year or so, so they are actually getting pretty thin in their system. They usually do pretty well in the International free agency so I'm sure they will restock it. White Sox now have 9 MLB Pipeline Top 100 prospects. They have went from a terrible system to elite off 3 trades.

[jorgenswest]

The starting pitcher bar has been set very high.

 

The Cubs must have contacted the Rays trying to get Archer with a similar package. They Rays must want more. They must have contacted the A's to try to get Gray without giving up Jimenez. Do the A's even take the Twins phone call if the starting point is Gordon? I am sure the Rays don't.

 

If this sets the market for starting pitchers, I hope the Twins are listening on Santana and cautious about trying to acquire a starter.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The starting pitcher bar has been set very high.

The Cubs must have contacted the Rays trying to get Archer with a similar package. They Rays must want more. They must have contacted the A's to try to get Gray without giving up Jimenez. Do the A's even take the Twins phone call if the starting point is Gordon? I am sure the Rays don't.

If this sets the market for starting pitchers, I hope the Twins are listening on Santana and cautious about trying to acquire a starter.

 

The Rays are in playoff contention, I don't understand why anyone thinks they are dealing Archer right now. The two situations are very, very, different.

[laloesch]

 

The starting pitcher bar has been set very high.

The Cubs must have contacted the Rays trying to get Archer with a similar package. They Rays must want more. They must have contacted the A's to try to get Gray without giving up Jimenez. Do the A's even take the Twins phone call if the starting point is Gordon? I am sure the Rays don't.

If this sets the market for starting pitchers, I hope the Twins are listening on Santana and cautious about trying to acquire a starter.

 

Yes, perhaps instead of adding a starter they should be looking to sell Santana to see what they can get for him.

[kab21]

 

The idea is that Santana is replaceable in free agency during the offseason. I know that opinions vary on Santana's future performance, but I'm more on the pessimistic side. Santana is on the books for $13M next year with a $14M team option for 2019. For that amount of money, the Twins should be able to find a reasonable facsimile of 35-36yo Santana. Between Santiago, Perkins and Gibson, the Twins have an additional $18M coming off the books.

 

Obviously the details matter, but I'm thinking something like this scenario:
- trade Santana to the a team (ex. Brewers: logic being that the Brewers could use some pitching help this year, and Santana makes a ready Garza replacement after he leaves in free agency this year) for a pitching prospect that is close but not quite major league ready (ex. Luis Ortiz: top-100 prospect, good-but-not-great 21yo in AA) and another prospect who would be top-30ish in the Twins org.
- this offseason, sign one of the second-tier FA pitchers (Pineda/Lynn/Cobb) to a Jeff Samardzija-esque deal (5yr/~$100M).
- also sign one of the older FA pitchers to 1 or 2 year deal at <$10/yr (Feldman/Estrada/Chavez/Vargas)

 

Going into next year, the rotation is:

Berrios
Pineda/Lynn/Cobb
Feldman/Estrada/Chavez/Vargas
Meija
Gonsalves/Ortiz/Romero

 

While that is no one's idea of an elite rotation, I think it is respectable - at the very least better than what they've rolled out for much of this season. And based of my back-of-the-envelope calculations, they should still have ~$10M-15M left to address the bullpen.

Or how about keeping Santana instead of hoping that you can replace him and actually improving the rotation? The target should be increasing the # of good starters instead of treading water.

 

Money shouldn't be a problem since Mauer comes off the books the following season.

 

I just don't see this front office giving up the talent via trade to bring in effective starters or paying the even higher priced free agents either.  When they did go after free agents they were all reclamation projects.  Nolasco, Hughes, Santana all reclamation projects one step above the scrap heap.  That is the legacy of dumpster diving Terry Ryan.  Nothing will change with this new FO with current ownership still in place just a shuffling of chairs on the deck and more posturing.  Might as well bring back Terry and be content lol.

We really don't know anything about how this front office will operate.

[laloesch]

 

Or how about keeping Santana instead of hoping that you can replace him and actually improving the rotation? The target should be increasing the # of good starters instead of treading water.

 

Money shouldn't be a problem since Mauer comes off the books the following season.

 

We really don't know anything about how this front office will operate.

 

You do realize Santana is 34 and will be 35 before next season?  He's certainly on the downhill side of his career while the young core is still trying to reach the top of the hill.  Do you just let him ride it out or try and get something for him, possibly a haul judging by the trade that just happened?

[jimmer]

Quintana. Tied with Lester for 8th most SP fWAR in MLB last 5 seasons and 4th in AL last 5 seasons(2014-present).

 

#3 pitcher

[laloesch]

 

We really don't know anything about how this front office will operate.

 

I can kinda guess.  Bartolo Colon has basically been guaranteed a rotation spot after the All-Star break.  Don't believe me watch the Falvey interview he was smiling ear to ear about a 44 year old starter who is absolutely struggling.  Tells you all you need to know right there.  Dumpster diving at it's finest.

 

Or how about keeping Santana instead of hoping that you can replace him and actually improving the rotation? The target should be increasing the # of good starters instead of treading water.

 

Money shouldn't be a problem since Mauer comes off the books the following season.

 

We really don't know anything about how this front office will operate.

 

Are they?  They certainly haven't fielded replacements at 1b yet and that's just over a year away.  You would think if that was the intention (let Mauer go in free agency) that auditions would be starting already but I see nothing of the sort happening.  In fact it's very possible that Mauer (who is hometown hero and worshiped like a god in some circles in the TC's) could be offered a much reduced extension carrying him to retirement (another 4 years or so). 

Edited July 13, 2017 by laloesch

[kab21]

 

You do realize Santana is 34 and will be 35 before next season?  He's certainly on the downhill side of his career while the young core is still trying to reach the top of the hill.  Do you just let him ride it out or try and get something for him, possibly a haul judging by the trade that just happened?

You do realize that every GM knows that Santana is 34 and will be 35 before next season. That is going to affect the 'haul' that you get.

[jorgenswest]

The Rays are in playoff contention, I don't understand why anyone thinks they are dealing Archer right now. The two situations are very, very, different.

Either because he is not on the market or because the Twins can't match the market, Archer should not be considered as a trade target.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Quintana. Tied with Lester for 8th most SP fWAR in MLB last 5 seasons and 4th in AL last 5 seasons(2014-present).

#3 pitcher

 

No question that there are some unreasonable standards as to what constitutes a 1-3.  People have been calling Santana a 3 for a while too.

[jimmer]

No question that there are some unreasonable standards as to what constitutes a 1-3. People have been calling Santana a 3 for a while too.

Ervin Santana is a weak #2/strong #3.

 

Santana hasnt had an fWAR over 3.2 since 2008 and only one fWAR over 2.9 since 2008. I doubt he get over 3.0 this year.

 

Quintana's last 4 fWAR going into this season was 3.5, 5.1, 4.8, 4.8.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Ervin Santana is a weak #2/strong #3.

Santana hasnt had an fWAR over 3.2 since 2008 and only one fWAR over 2.9 since 2008. I doubt he get over 3.0 this year.

Quintana's last 4 fWAR going into this season was 3.5, 5.1, 4.8, 4.8.

 

the comparison of their bWAR isn't any better for ESan....

[jimmer]

the comparison of their bWAR isn't any better for ESan....

good to know. I use fWAR cause I prefer FIP, but still good info.

[jimmer]

I think that makes Quintana a weak 1/strong 2 and Santana a solid 2/strong 3. The haul the Sox got for Quintana tells you that the Twins do not have the prospects for a guy like that. Better to be looking at more #3 type guys or pitching the young guys and hoping. I prefer the latter if the Quintana trade sets the market.

 

I think we keep Santana through this year and explore the trade market over the winter. Trading him now tells the team that they aren't good enough. That may be the accurate assessment but it's the wrong message when trying to build an organization. Read Dozier's comments in the Strib this morning - he claims the Twins are legit playoff contenders and is looking to the FO to bolster the team for the stretch. This is a tough balancing act and I think you have to support your players. Keep Santana, try to pick up some BP help and maybe a veteran RH bat to bolster the order and go with the young guys to fill out the rotation unless you get lucky and Bartolo can actually be The Big Sexy for the rest of the year.

since 2014, only three AL starters have more fWAR than Quintana. Three.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think that makes Quintana a weak 1/strong 2 and Santana a solid 2/strong 3. The haul the Sox got for Quintana tells you that the Twins do not have the prospects for a guy like that. Better to be looking at more #3 type guys or pitching the young guys and hoping. I prefer the latter if the Quintana trade sets the market.

 

I think we keep Santana through this year and explore the trade market over the winter. Trading him now tells the team that they aren't good enough. That may be the accurate assessment but it's the wrong message when trying to build an organization. Read Dozier's comments in the Strib this morning - he claims the Twins are legit playoff contenders and is looking to the FO to bolster the team for the stretch. This is a tough balancing act and I think you have to support your players. Keep Santana, try to pick up some BP help and maybe a veteran RH bat to bolster the order and go with the young guys to fill out the rotation unless you get lucky and Bartolo can actually be The Big Sexy  for the rest of the year.   

 

I'm not sure that plan backs up Dozier and the vets all that much either, though. 

[jimmer]

I'm not sure that plan backs up Dozier and the vets all that much either, though.

and just cause Dozier thinks this team is a playoff contender doesnt mean it actually is. We arent going to trade for anything of consequence by the trade deadline. Edited July 13, 2017 by jimmer