Kyle Gibson: Haven't We Seen Enough?

[Twodogs]

Adding Gibson to a package doesn't increase it's value.

Right, that's why I said they have to send a big piece, then maybe add Gibson in as a fixable thing worth the effort of a last place team waiting for guys like a Gordon to be ready in a year or two. I mean he has stuff, just hasn't done well for the Twins, doesn't mean that some other team with better coaching couldn't get a little more out of him?

[Rosterman]

The one reason to keep Hughes would be if he could develop into a closer. You are paying him (as well as Perkins right now). Kintzler walks or gets a multi-year contract.

 

Who do the Twins have in the wings? No one proven from the minors, yet. Hildenberger? Chargois? Reed? Pressly? Bring back Tonkin?

 

At some point the Twins have to be willing to eat contracts, no matter how they dream the guy might succeed elsewhere. Do you think the Braves like paying Colon all that money to have him possibly comeback with someone else, for example? 

 

I still see the Twins contract driven for keeping players, and then trying waaaay too hard to find that Diamond in the dumpster...and believe me, that diamond is not often a treasure that brings back loads and loads of positives.

 

And, yes, Gibson is the new Blackburn. If Park can stagnate in the minors, so can Gibson. So can Hughes (who is showing some life in relief). If Jorge and Gibson are the same pitcher today, I would rather stay with Jorge who should only get better, at this point, rather than worse.

 

 

[snap4birds]

 

Romero won't be full season in the bigs next year. His most innings pitched has been 90 last year. Assume health that puts 120-130 at most this year. 140-150 next year.

In 2016 there were 85 pitchers that topped 150 innings.  Just less than 3 per team.  I think you could use him as the 5th starter/skip a few starts or otherwise maneuver somehow to keep him from exceeding 150 innings.  Not that I'm advocating this, just pointing out that nowadays, 150 innings makes you a #4 starter.  

[jimbo92107]

I hate to say it, but Blackburn is a fair comp for Kyle Gibson at this point, with this painful caveat: Blackburn was plagued by injuries that took away his ability to be effective. Gibson has no such excuse. His heat is still low to mid-90's. His off-speed stuff still bites and fools hitters...sometimes. Gibson's problem appears to be psychological. He seems too nice to pitch inside, he tends to nibble the outside corner, and when he gets behind, he has no devastating whiff pitch. 

 

I've said before that if you could transplant Jack Morris's attitude into Gibson, you'd have a dominant ace. I have to take that back now. Along with his junkyard dog attitude, Morris also had a devastating fork ball that would drop straight down just before it reached the plate. Almost nobody could lay off that thing, and if they didn't whiff, they'd pound it into the ground. Gibson has no such pitch. On a good day his slider/curve can induce some whiffs, but he's just as likely to leave one hanging right over the middle of the plate...boom. 

 

Maybe Gibson can reassemble his game as a reliever with a 2-seamer and a slider, something like that. Even then, he'll need to learn to attack attack attack, not nibble. Either that, or I'd send him down to AAA. Right now, his game isn't competitive at the mlb level. 

[Mr. Brooks]

I bet he gets a shot at some point. $ 13 mil is an awful lot to pay a mop up reliever for the next two years. The Twins will try him as a starter at some point I think. Possibly to start next season.

The guys determining his role are not the same guys writing the checks though.

I can understand ownership might not let them cut a 13 million player, but I doubt the Pohlads are going to demand that he start.

[Shaitan]

 

Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes were the same year 13-14 Off Season.

 

Santana was the following year. 

 

The other thing to consider... If the Twins need to find 3 MLB Quality arms in one off season. Almost every team in the majors will be looking for one or two as well. Supply and Demand is going to be prohibitive. 

 

Because of this... I just don't see the Twins trading Santana and rolling out the kids out and I think it increases the possibility that Gibson will be brought back. 

 

I'd non-tender Gibby at the end of the year but the best solution in Falvine's eyes may be to bring him back and ... FIX HIM!!!! 

When was Correa? I really feel like they signed 3 that year. Eh, the point probably remains the same.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

In 2016 there were 85 pitchers that topped 150 innings. Just less than 3 per team. I think you could use him as the 5th starter/skip a few starts or otherwise maneuver somehow to keep him from exceeding 150 innings. Not that I'm advocating this, just pointing out that nowadays, 150 innings makes you a #4 starter.

agreed, just kind of iffy...

[kab21]

 

If there are 3 good FA starters, what are the odds the Twins sign one, over the other 29 teams? Probably pretty low, I'd think.

So your argument is that they don't try? That makes sense...

 

Cueto is having an off year. That's 2 of the last 3. He'd have to be nuts to walk away from $ 84 mil guaranteed. Better question: would you really offer him that much at this point in his career?

Lynn has a FIP of 5.19. Darvish OK. But the season is far from over. As bad as the Rangers pitching has been for the last twenty years, they would be pretty dumb to let him walk.

It is getting borderline ridiculous at how people pick apart available pitchers that the Twins could target. And how convenient it is to use 

Cueto had an off year 2 years ago? He had a 3.44 ERA. Basically any season that isn't Cy Young level is an off year I guess. He is having an off year this year but the sample size (high HR rate) isn't huge yet based on his past track record. 

Lance Lynn is just coming back from TJ and his velocity, swstr% and K rates are back and he is getting hammered by an absurdly high HR rate. HR rate is a luck stat.

 

Darvish will still be in FA but it seems like you wouldn't even make the call. 

 

It seems like there will always be excuses for not improving the Twins rotation. No good FA starters is the latest. Must keep every prospect is also brought up all the time. Keep building for 2020+ and keep Pohlad's bank account full people.

[jimmer]

 

So your argument is that they don't try? That makes sense...

 

It is getting borderline ridiculous at how people pick apart available pitchers that the Twins could target. And how convenient it is to use 

Cueto had an off year 2 years ago? He had a 3.44 ERA. Basically any season that isn't Cy Young level is an off year I guess. He is having an off year this year but the sample size (high HR rate) isn't huge yet based on his past track record. 

Lance Lynn is just coming back from TJ and his velocity, swstr% and K rates are back and he is getting hammered by an absurdly high HR rate. HR rate is a luck stat.

 

Darvish will still be in FA but it seems like you wouldn't even make the call. 

 

It seems like there will always be excuses for not improving the Twins rotation. No good FA starters is the latest. Must keep every prospect is also brought up all the time. Keep building for 2020+ and keep Pohlad's bank account full people.

I didn't see where he made that argument at all.  It's just likely that the Twins won't sign (or attempt to sign) any of the three.

[kab21]

 

I didn't see where he made that argument at all.  It's just likely that the Twins won't sign (or attempt to sign) any of the three.

Yes, the odds are not good but this is what I would do. And that is stop running the Twins like a impoverished organization and aim to compete sooner than later since the offense is putting together a good nucleus. It would be similar to the type of offseason that the Wolves had. They were aggressive and there is a lot of optimism for next year. 

[Mike Sixel]

No place did I say don't try. Didn't even imply that. Sigh

[kab21]

 

No place did I say don't try. Didn't even imply that. Sigh

I shouldn't have even responded to the pointless comment 'what are the odds the Twins sign one'.

The response to yarnivek that there weren't any good starters in FA. I disagree with that and your comment didn't add anything.

[ewen21]

This "Gibson is the best option we have" case being made (you are saying that when you assume it is not possible to find a better option) really is silly.  Hand me the crystal ball you got if you think that.  You mean to say we can't try a few guys in his spot and see if we get anything better than an almost 6.00 ERA.  We really can't think that way?  You are going to throw cold water on that concept?

Tell me how we improve if you aren't willing to change or take a chance??

 

Whether or not we can find what turns out to be a better option in house this season matters not.  Gibson needs to go.  Are we REALLY going to re-up him next year for that same reason: "no better option"??

 

This is where Falvey and Levine have their work cut out for them.  Find a pitcher who can start that is better than Kyle Gibson.  DO SOMETHING because the pitching continues to be a big BIG problem and until it improves we are kidding ourselves.  Sounds like there are a few people here who don't think that is feasible in 2017.  Why not?  We could do something this organization never does: PURGE.  I am not even talking about a long term solution. I am talking about getting a player (Gibson) who is bad for the overall culture OFF THE TEAM.  This is an addition by subtraction thing.  This team does not need Kyle Gibson around.  We don't need him in another role either.  We have seen enough.  Get rid of him

[kab21]

 

This "Gibson is the best option we have" case being made (you are saying that when you assume it is not possible to find a better option) really is silly.  Hand me the crystal ball you got if you think that.  You mean to say we can't try a few guys in his spot and see if we get anything better than an almost 6.00 ERA.  We really can't think that way?  You are going to throw cold water on that concept?

Tell me how we improve if you aren't willing to change or take a chance??

The Twins already have a rotating starter in the fifth spot and for the most part that starter has been worse than Gibson. So yeah, it's that bad. 

Once the Twins secure the 5th spot then kick Gibson to the curb but I also have no interest in watching 2 spots in the rotation filled by the latest version Pino, Devries, Albers, Dean or Jason Miller.

[amjgt]

Romero won't be full season in the bigs next year. His most innings pitched has been 90 last year. Assume health that puts 120-130 at most this year. 140-150 next year.

Except he did extended spring training last year, which will not show up on MiLB.com, but are real innings, if we're talking about ramping up his innings limit. I suspect he'll get to 140-150 this year. I wouldn't be shocked if he gets to 130 and he gets a call up to the majors to throw in the bullpen in mid August, and accumulate another 15-20 innings

[amjgt]

Ervin Santana and Gibson have pretty close to the same xFIP.

 

My brain can't handle that fact and I have no idea what that tells me about Ervin, Gibby, or xFIP as a meaningful stat.

 

Now the rest of you are burdened by this information just like I have been today.

[jimmer]

 

Ervin Santana and Gibson have pretty close to the same xFIP.

My brain can't handle that fact and I have no idea what that tells me about Ervin, Gibby, or xFIP as a meaningful stat.

Now the rest of you are burdened by this information just like I have been today.

When I am considering how the pitcher has actually pitched, I discard xFIP because those HRs did happen.  They are a healthy amount more than a run apart in FIP (1.25 to be exact). That seems right.

[theBOMisthebomb]

The Twins are desperate for starting pitchers. Gibby is below average, however he is a known quantity and the Twins know they won't be (most likely) completely sunk when they throw him out there. There is a certain comfort level when running Gibby out there, even though it is almost certain the results will not be stellar. It's sort of like the girlfriend from college that you couldn't stand, yet didn't want to break up with because it would have been too much work and she was adequate where it counts.

[jimmer]

 

The Twins are desperate for starting pitchers. Gibby is below average, however he is a known quantity and the Twins know they won't be (most likely) completely sunk when they throw him out there. There is a certain comfort level when running Gibby out there, even though it is almost certain the results will not be stellar. It's sort of like the girlfriend from college that you couldn't stand, yet didn't want to break up with because it would have been too much work and she was adequate where it counts.

Yeah, he's a known quantity.  Known to be horrible.  I get zero comfort whenever he gets run out there to the mound.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Yeah, he's a known quantity.  Known to be horrible.  I get zero comfort whenever he gets run out there to the mound.

Yeah, he's a known quantity.  Known to be horrible.  I get zero comfort whenever he gets run out there to the mound.

It's hard to argue. However, I will state that there is a small sliver of hope that he could turn the corner and end up with a decent career.

[jimmer]

 

It's hard to argue. However, I will state that there is a small sliver of hope that he could turn the corner and end up with a decent career.

Yeah, people keep saying that.  I wanted him traded after the 2015 season and said so, often.  So many people were convinced he had turned the corner (cause, you know, ERA under 4.00), and I saw it differently.

 

He turns 30 this year.  He is what he is.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Except he did extended spring training last year, which will not show up on MiLB.com, but are real innings, if we're talking about ramping up his innings limit. I suspect he'll get to 140-150 this year. I wouldn't be shocked if he gets to 130 and he gets a call up to the majors to throw in the bullpen in mid August, and accumulate another 15-20 innings

FWIW, Romero was pulled yesterday after 5 innings and only 63 pitches, so it looks like there is some org concern about him hitting an innings limit this year.

 

He is on track for 9-10 more starts, and was averaging about 6 IP per start during May and June.  That would mean 54-60 IP, which plus his current 90 would put him at 144-150 total.  But if they're leaving him in AA, there will also be playoffs. Perhaps they will try to stretch that same number of innings over 11-12 starts?

 

I'd love to see Romero get a look in MLB this season, but I don't see them messing with a guy on an innings limit.  They could have gotten his feet wet in the spot starts that went to Jorge too.  I suspect Jorge got them because he's the one with a chance to finish the year here (he threw 167 IP last year).

[amjgt]

Jorge got them because he's on the 40-man (so is Romero) and his starts lined up with when he was scheduled to pitch

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Ervin Santana and Gibson have pretty close to the same xFIP.

 

My brain can't handle that fact and I have no idea what that tells me about Ervin, Gibby, or xFIP as a meaningful stat.

 

Now the rest of you are burdened by this information just like I have been today.

Gibson's HR/FB rate is really high this year compared to the last couple years. I would expect it to come down some over the rest of the season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Jorge got them because he's on the 40-man (so is Romero) and his starts lined up with when he was scheduled to pitch

Romero was available for both days as well. He actually started for Chattanooga the same day that Jorge made his MLB debut (July 1), and next pitched the day before Jorge's second MLB start (July 6-7).

 

Something else made the Twins choose Jorge over Romero, and I suspect it was in part due to the innings limit. That gets complicated when you start to rely on them at the MLB level. And it will also be a factor discouraging a later call-up for Romero.

[kab21]

 

Romero was available for both days as well. He actually started for Chattanooga the same day that Jorge made his MLB debut (July 1), and next pitched the day before Jorge's second MLB start (July 6-7).

Something else made the Twins choose Jorge over Romero, and I suspect it was in part due to the innings limit. That gets complicated when you start to rely on them at the MLB level. And it will also be a factor discouraging a later call-up for Romero.

I think a big part of it is that Jorge is pretty far ahead of Romero despite being at the same level. Jorge has thrown 629 MiLB innings (about 2.5x more). Romero has more potential but he is probably still pretty raw as a pitcher. He is only on the 40 man due to advancing slowly because of injury. Kind of a Johan Santana situation except the Twins protected him instead of letting someone take a chance on him and hide him in the bullpen for a rule 5 season.

[Aaron Cross]

Santiago will be back from DL before a 5th starter is needed.

Berrios

Erv

Mejia

Colon

Santiago

I get that Santiago isn't a great option either, but he's still better than Gibson, IMO.

Never need to see Santiago or Gibson again.

[Aaron Cross]

His career trajectory is similar to that of Nick Blackburn.  Can we do the same thing we did with Blackburn if Gibson's next outing resembles this last one?  Honestly, why even have him?

Throwing this guy out there every five days is a slap in the face to all Twins fans.

[kab21]

 

Throwing this guy out there every five days is a slap in the face to all Twins fans.

Then we need to trade prospects to bring in quality starters. The rotation is so bad that things can get worse than Gibson unfortunately. See Bartolo Colon...

[drjim]

Completely acceptable start today. He's pitching like a #5 the last several weeks.