Possible Trade Partners for Dozier

[yarnivek1972]

 

I am not a huge fan of Mauer, but unless Sano moves to 1B, the twins best 1B prospect in in A ball this year. And Kennys is terrible he has a few good streaks but he in no way should be considered part of the future.

So unless something happens at that position I see the Twins offering Joe a 3 year contract for around 20 million and he probably would take it to be a part time 1B and DH. IMO

Really? 7 mil per year for a part time player with little power?  WHY?

[Tomj14]

 

Archer is on one of the team-friendliest contracts in MLB, with potential team control through 2021.  Tampa's top prospect is a SS too (Willy Adames, ranked 10-21 in all of MLB on various lists preseason).

 

Not that an offer of Polanco and Jay would get you anywhere, even if the above facts weren't true.

Good Stuff thanks (and I forgot they moved Jay to the bullpen), if we could get him 2021, then I would be willing to give up Polanco, Rosario, and one of our top two starting pitcher prospects and another high upside guy.

[Tomj14]

 

Really? 7 mil per year for a part time player with little power?  WHY?

First because it isn't my money. Second because that seems about the price of somebody that averages around 2 WAR.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Good Stuff thanks (and I forgot they moved Jay to the bullpen), if we could get him 2012, then I would be willing to give up Polanco, Rosario, and one of our top two starting pitcher prospects and another high upside guy.

I'm not even sure that would work.  Archer would command at least one elite prospect, plus a few more strong pieces.  Look at the return for Sale this past winter.

 

Nick Gordon is the closest thing we have but I'm not sure he's quite elite.  Even if he was, our next best guy is Gonsalves, who was only a fringe top 100 guy preseason.  Guys scuffling in MLB like Polanco and Rosario aren't going to move the needle in a trade like this.  Honestly it would probably take Berrios plus Gordon plus Gonsalves plus another piece, if it was even possible at all.

[yarnivek1972]

Mauer is not likely to compile a 2 WAR as a part time player.  How exactly would you work this out from a roster standpoint?  In this era of 12 or 13 man pitching staffs, there really is no roster space for a part time player who only plays one position. Besides, Lewin Diaz hits left handed.  If he is going to break in as a platoon player (which also really don't exist anymore), how is Mauer going to help?

[Tomj14]

 

Mauer is not likely to compile a 2 WAR as a part time player.  How exactly would you work this out from a roster standpoint?  In this era of 12 or 13 man pitching staffs, there really is no roster space for a part time player who only plays one position. Besides, Lewin Diaz hits left handed.  If he is going to break in as a platoon player (which also really don't exist anymore), how is Mauer going to help?

Like I said I am not a huge Mauer fan, but I have ZERO faith in Vargas, Park or Palka.

Two of the last three years Joe has been a 2 WAR player , playing 120 and 134 games and is on that pace again this year.

Would I like a better situation, absolutely but I don't see it anywhere on the team or minor leagues at this point.  Plus the average MLB salary is 4.47, so 7 isn't really that much considering.

[yarnivek1972]

 

Like I said I am not a huge Mauer fan, but I have ZERO faith in Vargas, Park or Palka.

Two of the last three years Joe has been a 2 WAR player , playing 120 and 134 games and is on that pace again this year.

Would I like a better situation, absolutely but I don't see it anywhere on the team or minor leagues at this point.  Plus the average MLB salary is 4.47, so 7 isn't really that much considering.

A lot can happen in two years.

 

Nowhere in any post did I mention Palka, Park or Vargas.  I did mention LaMonte Wade and Mitch Garver.  I think they will be more than ready to contribute by 2019.  In what role exactly, it is hard to say.  Also, my original response to Brandon included the possibility of resigning Dozier to perhaps play some first base and DH.  Dozier will certainly bring more power to 1b/dh than Mauer (better overall hitter is debatable) AND he is a right handed hitter, something most of the Twins hitting prospects are not.  The Twins certainly don't need both Mauer and Dozier after 2018.  Given that he's younger, has plus power, hits right handed and can play somewhere other than 1b, I'd rather have Dozier.

[Winston Smith]

 

I am not a huge fan of Mauer, but unless Sano moves to 1B, the twins best 1B prospect in in A ball this year. And Kennys is terrible he has a few good streaks but he in no way should be considered part of the future.

So unless something happens at that position I see the Twins offering Joe a 3 year contract for around 20 million and he probably would take it to be a part time 1B and DH. IMO

When I read this it made me sad!

[Thrylos]

 

Lemahieu just won a batting title last year, and he's a better fielder than Dozier. I don't think there's any chance the Rockies trade for a 2b (or any infielder for that matter).

 

Lamahieu was an one year wonder last season and has returned to mediocrity.  The Rockies would love to improve over his 78 OPS+, if they would like to compete further.

[Thrylos]

 

 

We seem to have pretty good depth at the middle of the infield. (Dozier, Polanco, Escobar and Adrianza) with Gordon on the way.

Tampa just lost Kiermaier and have Brad Miller and Tim Beckham at SS and 2B. How about we offer them Polanco, Jay, and another minor leaguer or two for Chris Archer.

This is without doing any research on Archer's contract situation or what they have for prospects at SS and 2B.

 

 

Any Archer conversations will start with Berrios or Romero plus Gordon and will likely include Gonsalves and Jorge, and I am not even sure that this will make it done...

 

[yarnivek1972]

Any Archer conversations will start with Berrios or Romero plus Gordon and will likely include Gonsalves and Jorge, and I am not even sure that this will make it done...

This is a ridiculous comment IMO. GMs aren't going to ask for a player they know the other team won't trade. Right now, that would be Berrios and Sano. I have no idea what it would take to get Archer - or even if it is someone the Twins have interest in - but anyone calling Falvey or Levine to inquire about players would know better than to ask about Berrios.

[Thrylos]

 

This is a ridiculous comment IMO. GMs aren't going to ask for a player they know the other team won't trade. Right now, that would be Berrios and Sano. I have no idea what it would take to get Archer - or even if it is someone the Twins have interest in - but anyone calling Falvey or Levine to inquire about players would know better than to ask about Berrios.

 

Alrighty then, since I suspect you are talking from personal experience...

[Monkeypaws]

You'll never build a winning culture in Minnesota if you keep trading your best players. Trading Santana and Dozier means "we expect to lose." What does a guy like Sano expect to happen to him someday if the Twins keep trading away top players for the future? At this stage of the rebuild I think it is far better to keep good players, play good ball, and risk losing them as free-agents. You gotta win to be relevant.

 

 

 

 

[yarnivek1972]

Alrighty then, since I suspect you are talking from personal experience...

You're the one unequivocally stating that the conversation starts with player x and player y. What is your experience level in mlb?

[Otto von Ballpark]

This is a ridiculous comment IMO. GMs aren't going to ask for a player they know the other team won't trade. Right now, that would be Berrios and Sano. I have no idea what it would take to get Archer - or even if it is someone the Twins have interest in - but anyone calling Falvey or Levine to inquire about players would know better than to ask about Berrios.

 

When we say an Archer package would have to include Berrios or Sano, that means the Twins and Rays won't be talking about Archer. Not that we expect those proposals to be made.

 

The Rays won't call the Twins asking for Sano, but likewise the Twins aren't going to call about Archer if all we are prepared to offer is a pile of underperformers and fringe top 100 prospects.

[Doomtints]

 

When we say an Archer package would have to include Berrios or Sano, that means the Twins and Rays won't be talking about Archer. Not that we expect those proposals to be made.

The Rays won't call the Twins asking for Sano, but likewise the Twins aren't going to call about Archer if all we are prepared to offer is a pile of underperformers and fringe top 100 prospects.

 

Right.

I don't know we we go down these rabbit holes so passionately and take such offense. 95% of what we talk about regarding trades is impossible. We take things too seriously.

[caninatl04]

 

I feel like I remember a thread about this deal happening at some point in the not too distant past? Anyone else remember anything like this maybe 3-6 months ago?

As the initiator of this "topic", I tried to start was far away from "Dozier to the Dodgers," but the perceived wisdom keeps ending up back there. 

[caninatl04]

 

Not knocking you Manglitch but I just don't get the love on TD of the idea of moving Sano to first when he has been playing well at 3rd. We have so many first base/DH types that we do not need to make Sano another one when he is fully capable of playing 3rd. I would rather give Vargas first base and let Grossman be the DH when Mauer is done. And, oh, by the way, we still have Mauer this year and next AND he is still one of the top producers on the team even if he is not the MVP/Gold Glove/Batting Title guy anymore.

I sincerely believe that 1B and "long reliever" are the two easiest positions to fill. After '18, there should be a plethora of candidates to replace Joe when one considers all potential corner OF, C, 1B and 3B currently at least 23 years old in the farm system.  And maybe there's Joe himself at a "new and improved price".

[caninatl04]

 

Here is 2017 second base offensive performance so far, by team:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2017&month=37&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d

 

Twins are 16th, and virtually every team notably below us is either a non-contender or already set/committed at the position.  Like last winter, the most notable exception is probably the Angels, but they don't really have the assets to make a trade worthwhile for us, even if they wanted to.

 

Dozier's blockbuster trade market has pretty much always hinged on the belief that he could be a ~130 wRC+ hitter going forward.  No one was really believing that last winter, and obviously even fewer would believe it now.

And at the bottom are the Texas Rangers, which is where we started.

[old nurse]

 

When we say an Archer package would have to include Berrios or Sano, that means the Twins and Rays won't be talking about Archer. Not that we expect those proposals to be made.

The Rays won't call the Twins asking for Sano, but likewise the Twins aren't going to call about Archer if all we are prepared to offer is a pile of underperformers and fringe top 100 prospects.

Wouldn't have been simpler all around to just state the Twins do not have tradeable players for Archer rather than propose the umproposalble?  It is the sad truth that the Twins really do not have the assets for the big trade. The last tradeable asset the Twins had was Span. Last tradeable prospect was Ramos.

 

[Thrylos]

 

I sincerely believe that 1B and "long reliever" are the two easiest positions to fill. After '18, there should be a plethora of candidates to replace Joe when one considers all potential corner OF, C, 1B and 3B currently at least 23 years old in the farm system.  And maybe there's Joe himself at a "new and improved price".

 

Lewin Diaz will be 23 in the 2019 season.  He is Mauer's likely replacement

[Otto von Ballpark]

And at the bottom are the Texas Rangers, which is where we started.

The Rangers fall squarely into the "committed" group, with the Odor extension.

[ahart10]

The Dozier situation hasn't changed since the end of last season. It's just wait and see mode.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Even in contention, he might be a chip to dangle if they can get SP help that can help right now...  I'd be comfortable downgrading the offense to upgrade the rotation.  Escobar/Polanco isn't sexy, but it won't kill you.  Gordon will likely be in AAA after the ASB given how well he's doing and could be ready to slot into a role as early as 2018 spring.

 

Worst case, you get a decent 2B/SS needing a 1 year prove it contract to hold down a spot to give Gordon a bit more time.

[bighat]

Very interesting position the Twins find themselves in.  A weak division, but sitting in 1st place for most of the year.  Dealing a major cog like Dozier or Ervin Santana would be eerily similar to the White Sox "White Flag Trade" about a decade back. 

 

I don't see how the Twins could deal for a prospect if they're in first place at the deadline.  I could see how they'd deal Dozier for an established starter - but a contender trading pitching at the deadline is unheard of. 

 

It's crazy to say it, but the Twins are almost handcuffed thanks to their success! Weird problem to have.

[Tomj14]

 

A lot can happen in two years.

 

Nowhere in any post did I mention Palka, Park or Vargas.  I did mention LaMonte Wade and Mitch Garver.  I think they will be more than ready to contribute by 2019.  In what role exactly, it is hard to say.  Also, my original response to Brandon included the possibility of resigning Dozier to perhaps play some first base and DH.  Dozier will certainly bring more power to 1b/dh than Mauer (better overall hitter is debatable) AND he is a right handed hitter, something most of the Twins hitting prospects are not.  The Twins certainly don't need both Mauer and Dozier after 2018.  Given that he's younger, has plus power, hits right handed and can play somewhere other than 1b, I'd rather have Dozier.

I like Wade, but I think his future with the Twins is in the outfield (LF). And By 2019 Garver will be 28 and hasn't yet played 1 game in the majors. Like I said before I am not a huge Mauer fan but unless things change that is what I see (I hope things change)

 

 

[LaBombo]

 

Very interesting position the Twins find themselves in.  A weak division, but sitting in 1st place for most of the year.  Dealing a major cog like Dozier or Ervin Santana would be eerily similar to the White Sox "White Flag Trade" about a decade back. 

 

I don't see how the Twins could deal for a prospect if they're in first place at the deadline.  I could see how they'd deal Dozier for an established starter - but a contender trading pitching at the deadline is unheard of. 

 

It's crazy to say it, but the Twins are almost handcuffed thanks to their success! Weird problem to have.

 

The Twins have the largest positive difference in baseball between actual and Pythagorean W/L record. They're 5 games worse by run differential than their record suggests, and since a stellar bullpen is one of the most common ways for a team to sustain a record that outpaces their Pythag projection.... well.... yeah.

 

I'm not saying the Twins should trade Santana or Dozier for a lowball offer, or with a sustainable division lead. I'm just pointing out that they're likely a weaker team in the long run than their record suggests, and need to factor that in to their personnel decisions.

 

Yes, it's great to see the Twins finally play even average baseball, and yes, there's an intangible cost to trading away a veteran or two when the division crown is even superficially within striking distance.

 

But the Twins have already squandered the better part of the first decade in their new ballpark with its larger revenue stream by both failing to contend and refusing to rebuild. They need to commit to one, and fundamental analytic evidence strongly suggests they're still just not ready to compete with the genuinely good teams yet. 

 

 

 

[gunnarthor]

 

 

 

But the Twins have already squandered the better part of the first decade in their new ballpark with its larger revenue stream by both failing to contend and refusing to rebuild. They need to commit to one, and fundamental analytic evidence strongly suggests they're still just not ready to compete with the genuinely good teams yet. 

You don't think the Twins have been rebuilding? Then you should be arguing that we should trade Sano and Castro and pretty much everyone on the ML roster to start a rebuild.

[LaBombo]

 

You don't think the Twins have been rebuilding? Then you should be arguing that we should trade Sano and Castro and pretty much everyone on the ML roster to start a rebuild.

 

If you agree with the Twins' apparent belief five years ago that they were poised to contend in 2013 and that Josh Willingham was essential to that effort, then we have very different impressions of the organization's makeup and direction at that time.

 

And I don't understand why you're deliberately conflating the purging of cost-controlled young stars with the actual rebuilding tradeoffs being considered.

[gunnarthor]

 

If you agree with the Twins' apparent belief that they were poised to contend in 2013 and that Josh Willingham was essential to that effort, then we have very different impressions of the organization's makeup at that time.

2013? Really? The Twins have had a top farm system for the last four years and that farm system is now delivering at the ML level. The ML team had to play someone 7m in 2013 means they weren't rebuilding?

 

You seem to want the team to have all the prospects up at the same time in the same window, which doesn't happen.  But since you don't think we've started to rebuild, where are the trade Castro threads? He's a vet on a three year deal. We should trade him.