Possible Trade Partners for Dozier

[Otto von Ballpark]

Logan Forsythe is putting up Buxtonesque numbers at the plate right now. Is his defense that good?

wRC+ is actually strictly a measure of offense. But Forsythe hasn't played much 2B, he's been injured and back in a utility role. Utley and Chris Taylor have been covering 2B, and I expect that production to come back down, but probably not enough to characterize the position as a hole anymore, at least not relative to Dozier'a non-2016 performances.

[gunnarthor]

 

Off the top of my head, Luhnow has traded for Gattis, McCann, Fiers and Giles. They all have value. He also got Gomez, who didn't pan out, and signed several affordable free agents who have helped the team. It's much more than shuffling bodies.

Well, to get Gattis they gave up Folty and Ruiz. For Fiers and Gomez they gave up Domingo Santana, Josh Hader and Brett Philips. For Giles they gave up Velasquez and others. For McCann they gave up Albert Abreu and Jorge Guzman.

 

The Astros have let a lot of talent leave the org the last few years in bad trades and giving up on guys too early (Grossman, JD Martinez, DeShields). I'm not sure if that's a good thing - look at all that talent that they stockpiled! - or a mark against the FO. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Well, to get Gattis they gave up Folty and Ruiz. For Fiers and Gomez they gave up Domingo Santana, Josh Hader and Brett Philips. For Giles they gave up Velasquez and others. For McCann they gave up Albert Abreu and Jorge Guzman.

 

The Astros have let a lot of talent leave the org the last few years in bad trades and giving up on guys too early (Grossman, JD Martinez, DeShields). I'm not sure if that's a good thing - look at all that talent that they stockpiled! - or a mark against the FO. 

 

Are people questioning the job the Astros have done in rebuilding this team? They've certainly made mistakes......but it's hard to argue the results right now.

[gunnarthor]

 

Are people questioning the job the Astros have done in rebuilding this team? They've certainly made mistakes......but it's hard to argue the results right now.

No, just pointing out a lot of strange trades and moves. They've let a lot of talent go.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Well, to get Gattis they gave up Folty and Ruiz. For Fiers and Gomez they gave up Domingo Santana, Josh Hader and Brett Philips. For Giles they gave up Velasquez and others. For McCann they gave up Albert Abreu and Jorge Guzman.

 

The Astros have let a lot of talent leave the org the last few years in bad trades and giving up on guys too early (Grossman, JD Martinez, DeShields). I'm not sure if that's a good thing - look at all that talent that they stockpiled! - or a mark against the FO.

How many of those deals do they really regret today, even with the benefit of hindsight? Even the Gomez trade has yielded Fiers who is capably holding down a rotation spot. Some guys they have given up have had their moments but most are ultimately pretty "meh" and would barely be factors in the Astros current roster, and that includes Grossman and DeShields. JD Martinez was the big one, although every other team in the league passed on claiming him too.

[nicksaviking]

Looks to me like the only fits for Dozier on contenders are with Milwaukee, Tampa and Arizona. And you have to squint real hard and tilt your head to see it with any of them. Angles to, but, ha, yeah they have noting to offer.

 

I think the Twins just ran into bad luck, they have a really good 2B in what might turn out to be history's greatest era for 2B. Nearly every team has one.

 

It would be really nice if the Twins would give Dozier some reps at 3B. Of course if they did it would be crystal clear what they were doing and fans probably wouldn't care for it much.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Looks to me like the only fits for Dozier on contenders are with Milwaukee, Tampa and Arizona. And you have to squint real hard and tilt your head to see it with any of them. Angles to, but, ha, yeah they have noting to offer.

 

I think the Twins just ran into bad luck, they have a really good 2B in what might turn out to be history's greatest era for 2B. Nearly every team has one.

 

It would be really nice if the Twins would give Dozier some reps at 3B. Of course if they did it would be crystal clear what they were doing and fans probably wouldn't care for it much.

 

He could DH or play first base also. I know that's not "sexy", but he's a better hitter than many DH and first base types (or was last year). If I was the Yankees, I'd want him at first/DH for sure. Dozier is outhitting the Astros DH group also....

[Otto von Ballpark]

He could DH or play first base also. I know that's not "sexy", but he's a better hitter than many DH and first base types (or was last year). If I was the Yankees, I'd want him at first/DH for sure. Dozier is outhitting the Astros DH group also....

But no one would give up much to plug him in at DH/1B, at least not at his current offensive level. Rather roll the dice on a bounceback, an internal option, someone like Vargas, or a cheap reclamation guy like Matt Adams was for Atlanta.

[USAFChief]

C'mon, I clearly never said that Dozier "lost all value". I said he returned to his pre-2016 level of performance, which is solid but notably less than his 2016 level. And at that level, he makes far less sense for the Dodgers. They have pretty well been vindicated so far in not giving up multiple top prospects for the available second basemen last winter, right? As much as the Twins have been vindicated in not trading straight up for De Leon. It was a smart non-trade on both sides.

The Dodgers weren't trading for Dozier to win the NL West.

 

If they win the WS, perhaps they'll be vindicated. If second base is a gaping hole, and they again get exposed in the postseason, I wonder how happy they'll be with their prospects.

[Pardon My Dinger]

Didn't a lot of folks want to 'sweeten the pot' by tacking Bellinger onto the Dozier trade for De Leon? I didn't know who Bellinger was at the time, but it's pretty funny to think about now. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Dodgers weren't trading for Dozier to win the NL West.

 

If they win the WS, perhaps they'll be vindicated. If second base is a gaping hole, and they again get exposed in the postseason, I wonder how happy they'll be with their prospects.

I did say "so far". And it is still a two sided coin -- if their postseason 2B winds up being an average-ish Utley again, it's hardly clear that Dozier's current level of performance would have pushed them any further in regards to a wored championship. They never had the option to go back in time to get elite 2016 Dozier, no matter how many prospects they were willing to give up.

[USAFChief]

I did say "so far". And it is still a two sided coin -- if their postseason 2B winds up being an average-ish Utley again, it's hardly clear that Dozier's current level of performance would have pushed them any further in regards to a wored championship. They never had the option to go back in time to get elite 2016 Dozier, no matter how many prospects they were willing to give up.

Average-ish Utley put up a .465 OPS in the 2016 NLDS and a .143 OPS in the NLCS.

 

They've been vulnerable to left hand pitching. Utley hasn't SLG'd .400 since 2014.

 

The Dodgers could really use Dozier. They will, I believe, regret their decision.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Average-ish Utley put up a .465 OPS in the 2016 NLDS and a .143 OPS in the NLCS.

 

They've been vulnerable to left hand pitching. Utley hasn't SLG'd .400 since 2014.

 

The Dodgers could really use Dozier. They will, I believe, regret their decision.

What kind of numbers has Dozier put up in the postseason, since you are willing to rely on those small samples?

 

And the Dodgers have the 3rd best team non-pitcher wRC+ vs LHP in all of MLB this season:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=np&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2017&month=13&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d

 

Their poor performance in that mark in 2016 was partially related to RHB Turner having an off year split. Predictably that has corrected in 2017.

 

They also have RHB Chris Taylor playing some 2B this year, and he has a 129 wRC+ overall, and 150 vs LHP. Utility guy Hernandez has a 179 vs LHP. Heck, even while being terrible overall, Forsythe has a 155 vs LHP this year. Dozier is at 158 in that mark.

[gunnarthor]

 

Didn't a lot of folks want to 'sweeten the pot' by tacking Bellinger onto the Dozier trade for De Leon? I didn't know who Bellinger was at the time, but it's pretty funny to think about now. 

Lots of people wanted more than De Leon but reporting from national writers was that the Dodgers said Bellinger, Buehler, Stewart, Urias, Alvarez, Verdugo and Lux were off limits in a trade (at least one that included De Leon). 

[Guest]

Looks to me like the only fits for Dozier on contenders are with Milwaukee, Tampa and Arizona. And you have to squint real hard and tilt your head to see it with any of them. Angles to, but, ha, yeah they have noting to offer.

 

I think the Twins just ran into bad luck, they have a really good 2B in what might turn out to be history's greatest era for 2B. Nearly every team has one.

 

It would be really nice if the Twins would give Dozier some reps at 3B. Of course if they did it would be crystal clear what they were doing and fans probably wouldn't care for it much.

Or left field. He should be able to at least replicate Ian Desmond. If I'm Dozier, looking ahead to free agency, I'd be for that.

 

The problem for the Twins is finding a middle infielder to plug in who would be better than the current LF. The bold move would be Gordon.

[Otto von Ballpark]

FWIW, since this thread's last activity, Forsythe has been on a hot streak.  Up to a 102 wRC+ now, ahead of Dozier's current 97.  Still based on a lot of walks, but the ISO has started climbing too.  Appears to have reclaimed the regular 2B job, although they could still use him for spot starts at 3B.

[Doomtints]

Brewers.

[mazeville]

 

Are people questioning the job the Astros have done in rebuilding this team? They've certainly made mistakes......but it's hard to argue the results right now.

 

Well, that's the benefit of building an enormous stockpile of talent. You can afford to make mistakes.

 

Wish the Twins would have done a rebuild the way they did, by just gathering assets.

[drjim]

Brewers.

Good thought, but unlikely to get pitching back (which is ok).

[nicksaviking]

 

Well, that's the benefit of building an enormous stockpile of talent. You can afford to make mistakes.

 

Wish the Twins would have done a rebuild the way they did, by just gathering assets.

 

It would have been nice. The opening of Target Field coinciding with the end of the Twins run of relevance put them in a tough spot. I'm sure they felt they couldn't completely sell out and stockpile assets for future use after getting their new ballpark.

 

The half measures they took didn't work anyway though so hopefully they see it's better to commit one way or another in future situations.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sorry to revive the thread, I had just noticed Forsythe's hot streak and remembered he had been discussed as a tangent here.

[drjim]

It would have been nice. The opening of Target Field coinciding with the end of the Twins run of relevance put them in a tough spot. I'm sure they felt they couldn't completely sell out and stockpile assets for future use after getting their new ballpark.

 

The half measures they took didn't work anyway though so hopefully they see it's better to commit one way or another in future situations.

I think this combination of events, along with some neglect of organizational infrastructure during the Smith era, really set the stage for the disaster of the last 6 years.

 

The damage to Target Field attendance/revenue is done, no reason to continue with half measures (even though I anticipate a quiet trade deadline).

[Doomtints]

 

Good thought, but unlikely to get pitching back (which is ok).

 

Hader has debuted with them but is still considered a prospect, and they have a couple of others in the near pipeline.

 

The Brewers have two weaknesses, pitching and 2B.  They could fix one of them with a trade if they are willing to give up a prospect. They won't find a better 2B on the market.

[Vanimal46]

Depends if the Brewers feel they are contenders or pretenders as well. This season may be one of the only times they have a legit chance at winning the division. The Cubs are going to be kings of the division for years to come. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Pretty sure the Brewers would be looking for pitching.  They might look to upgrade at 2B too, but probably modestly/cheaply.  They probably expect Villar to bounce back a bit (he was good last year, and he's still pretty young), Perez has been pretty good as a utility guy, and Sogard was on an out-of-nowhere hot streak until he just got injured.

[drjim]

Hader has debuted with them but is still considered a prospect, and they have a couple of others in the near pipeline.

 

The Brewers have two weaknesses, pitching and 2B. They could fix one of them with a trade if they are willing to give up a prospect. They won't find a better 2B on the market.

I imagine they hold on to Hader for a potential Quintana or Gray trade. They do have some good position player prospect surplus, I'd take it.

 

Dozier is a good fit for the Brewers too, bridges the gap to Isan Diaz.

[Doomtints]

 

I imagine they hold on to Hader for a potential Quintana or Gray trade. They do have some good position player prospect surplus, I'd take it.

Dozier is a good fit for the Brewers too, bridges the gap to Isan Diaz.

 

Now that I look more closely at the Brewers, their pitching has improved greatly over the past six weeks.  They are a good pitching team too.  I'm a little surprised.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also, Dozier is only a 97 wRC+ on the season (106 career), average defensive metrics, 30 years old, 1 more year of control at $9 mil.  He would definitely be an upgrade for some teams, but probably not enough of an upgrade to draw an aggressive offer in trade.

 

Jed Lowrie is almost certainly available from Oakland, he's having a better season at the plate and has a $6 mil team option next year.  He's probably target #1, and I don't expect to see any major 2B deals before he is off the table.

[jorgenswest]

Brewers.

Are they ready to give up on Villar? He was pretty good last year.

 

If I were the Brewers, I would count on Villar doing well in the second half and direct my trade assets elsewhere.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Now that I look more closely at the Brewers, their pitching has improved greatly over the past six weeks.  They are a good pitching team too.  I'm a little surprised.

True, but a lot of that was Chase Anderson, who is now injured for 4-6 weeks.