Possible Trade Partners for Dozier

[Doomtints]

 

Are they ready to give up on Villar? 

 

Considering they picked up Sogard, yes.

[drjim]

So what would people expect back for Dozier right now?

[Vanimal46]

 

So what would people expect back for Dozier right now?

 

A lower ranked prospect than Jose De Leon. 

[drjim]

A lower ranked prospect than Jose De Leon.

I would agree, but De Leon was overrated, so perhaps not a disaster.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Considering they picked up Sogard, yes.

Considering Sogard was a minor league signing in the offseason, after Villar had a 117 OPS+ last year, I don't think that it indicates they're giving up on Villar.

[Otto von Ballpark]

We're all on the same page about the odds of a Dozier deal, right? Like, 1% this month?

[Mike Sixel]

We're all on the same page about the odds of a Dozier deal, right? Like, 1% this month?

That seems high to me, frankly. I forsee lots of hand sitting

[Vanimal46]

That seems high to me, frankly. I forsee lots of hand sitting

Me too, unfortunately.

 

This off-season, I could see:

 

Dozier 25%

Gordon 55%

Other MI prospect 30%

[Vanimal46]

I would agree, but De Leon was overrated, so perhaps not a disaster.

Most prospects are. I'd be willing to bet the White Sox are regretting the Easton trade now that it looks like Giolito and Lopez may end up being bullpen arms.

[drjim]

That seems high to me, frankly. I forsee lots of hand sitting

Agree, 1% is too high.

[Doomtints]

 

Considering Sogard was a minor league signing in the offseason, after Villar had a 117 OPS+ last year, I don't think that it indicates they're giving up on Villar.

 

Who else was available for them to pick up?  This was a panic move.

[prouster]

This is a ridiculous comment IMO. GMs aren't going to ask for a player they know the other team won't trade. Right now, that would be Berrios and Sano. I have no idea what it would take to get Archer - or even if it is someone the Twins have interest in - but anyone calling Falvey or Levine to inquire about players would know better than to ask about Berrios.

I would much rather have Archer on my team than Berrios. I think you are severely underestimating what it would take to pry him from Tampa.

[mazeville]

 

It would have been nice. The opening of Target Field coinciding with the end of the Twins run of relevance put them in a tough spot. I'm sure they felt they couldn't completely sell out and stockpile assets for future use after getting their new ballpark.

 

The half measures they took didn't work anyway though so hopefully they see it's better to commit one way or another in future situations.

 

Oh yeah. I agree they were in a tough spot with Target Field.

 

But they should have gone out and spent on free agents to make the team more competitive and for one reason or another they didn't do that. 

 

Had they spent on free agents, it would have been a great sign to fans that the team was willing to spend now that it had a new stadium to fix problems. And if the free agents didn't make the Twins a winner - and it's doubtful they would have - then they'd have more assets to trade for younger players. 

 

Instead, as you said, they tried half measures and sort of muddled their way through a few seasons and it didn't work. 

[Platoon]

Oh yeah. I agree they were in a tough spot with Target Field.

 

But they should have gone out and spent on free agents to make the team more competitive and for one reason .............. they didn't do that. 

 

 

 

FTFY

[drjim]

Oh yeah. I agree they were in a tough spot with Target Field.

 

But they should have gone out and spent on free agents to make the team more competitive and for one reason or another they didn't do that.

 

Had they spent on free agents, it would have been a great sign to fans that the team was willing to spend now that it had a new stadium to fix problems. And if the free agents didn't make the Twins a winner - and it's doubtful they would have - then they'd have more assets to trade for younger players.

 

Instead, as you said, they tried half measures and sort of muddled their way through a few seasons and it didn't work.

They did have a pretty big payroll in 2011, 9th highest in baseball. Pretty representative for the market.

 

It wasn't a lack of free agents, it was spending too much money on the wrong ones.

[mazeville]

 

They did have a pretty big payroll in 2011, 9th highest in baseball. Pretty representative for the market.

It wasn't a lack of free agents, it was spending too much money on the wrong ones.

 

They had the 9th highest payroll in the 2011 season. But going into that season they were not active in free agency at all, basically making the stupid JJ Hardy trade and signing Nishioka. They didn't do much to bolster the pitching staff at all. And 9th highest payroll in baseball is barely in the top third. 

 

After that season, they lost Joe Nathan and Michael Cuddyer to free agency and signed Ryan Doumit and Josh Willingham. But they cut almost $20 million in payroll that year. So rather than use up that payroll, and maybe spend a little more to perhaps reverse the previous season, they cut from the payroll and spent on a couple of decent but not great free agents. 

 

Nobody saw the 2011 season coming. But once it happened, they had two choices that would have been defensible: Sell, and collect prospects, or try spending your way out of it.

 

Instead, the Twins did neither. They cut their payroll, but mostly by attrition. They didn't trade guys for prospects - other than guys who were well past peak and had little value on the open market.

 

And they weren't even active enough in free agency to maintain existing payroll. 

 

That wishy washiness made things worse. As I said earlier, I got that they were stuck. But they're supposedly the baseball experts. They should have made a strong decision and stuck with it. If they had done the rebuild right, they would field a more competitive team right now, or at least we wouldn't have had to endure last year's debacle. And I'd argue they'd be more competitive now even if they delayed the rebuild by being more active in free agency after the 2011 season, and then by being aggressive in trading guys you signed to free agent contracts for prospects. (Like, say, Josh Willingham)

 

I don't think signing free agents and spending more is the answer - I don't think it would have made the 2012 team a contender by any stretch of the imagination. But the Twins' rebuilding strategy was horrific.

[drjim]

I would 100% agree that not doing a full rebuild after 2011 set them back for more years than was necessary.

 

But buying more free agents after that season than they did would have been even more counterproductive. Should have blown it up, but after 2 years in Target Field would have been a pr disaster, so they did the worse of all things, and are still a pr disaster. They can spent their full draft allotment, more than any other team, and still be called cheap.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Looking at contenders, both the Rays and Brewers could use a 2B, and Dozier would represent a fairly nice upgrade for either team. The Rays are playing Daniel Robertson at 2B. He's a very young SS prospect that could definitely use a bit more time in the minors, but has been pressed into duty due to the Forsythe trade. The Brewers are playing Jonathan Villar. Villar has been in and out of the majors since 2013. He was a pretty hot prospect, but other than a really strong 2016, he hasn't shown much at all. Neither look to be ideal fits, but Dozier is a 1.5 season rental at this point. That would allow the Rays a bit more time to develop Robertson. The Brewers would likely have to be a bit more creative with Villar.

 

Just for fun, these are their prospect lists.

 

Rays

Brewers

 

The Rays actually have a bunch of decent pitching prospects in AAA (Snell, Guerrieri, Honeywell, and Faria).  Snell and Faria have both been recalled recently, though Snell has bounced around a bit. If the Rays wanted to go all in, this is an area where Santana and Dozier could make sense as the Twins could walk away with a couple of arms they could start using now. 

 

The Brewers don't appear to be as good of a fit. Josh Hader is currently pitching out of the pen, and he's probably their most ML ready starting option. He's been starting in the minors most of this year, but recently got called up to the pen and is doing well there. He has been hit around a bit in the PCL, but then again, who hasn't. Walk rate is higher than one would like, but he has a very sexy K rate. They could also potentially see the need to upgrade from Zach Davies, who has had some ML success but is definitely having a sophomore slump. Jorge Lopez is a top 100 prospect that has not gotten the best minor league results. I'm not a fan personally, but then again, I'm just scouting stat lines.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Actually Brad Miller is the Rays 2B when healthy, which he is again. Not much of a defender, but he had 30 HR last year. They also have Tim Beckham hitting well, just acquired Adeiny Hechavarria, and their top prospect is another infielder Willy Adames who is hitting pretty well at AAA. I don't see them making a big move anywhere, but especially not in the infield.

 

The Brewers would be more likely, but they probably won't mind betting on Villar to bounce back until Sogard comes back soon. Like most contenders, I think their primary target will be pitching -- 3 of their top 6 starters are on the DL right now. Ervin might be of more interest to them, but probably because of a perceived lower price than, say, Sonny Gray. I could see them just renting a Feldman or Cahill, though.

[drjim]

Actually Brad Miller is the Rays 2B when healthy, which he is again. Not much of a defender, but he had 30 HR last year. They also have Tim Beckham hitting well, just acquired Adeiny Hechavarria, and their top prospect is another infielder Willy Adames who is hitting pretty well at AAA. I don't see them making a big move anywhere, but especially not in the infield.

 

The Brewers would be more likely, but they probably won't mind betting on Villar to bounce back until Sogard comes back soon. Like most contenders, I think their primary target will be pitching -- 3 of their top 6 starters are on the DL right now. Ervin might be of more interest to them, but probably because of a perceived lower price than, say, Sonny Gray. I could see them just renting a Feldman or Cahill, though.

Yup, no way Rays are looking for Dozier.