Sano= Early MVP favorite?

[DaveW]

 

11 WAR? No chance.

 

I do think he has a shot at MVP, btw. But, the voters will need Trout fatigue, and the SS's will have to play worse than they did last year.

I'm not saying he will have "11 WAR" I am saying that WAR in itself is flawed to begin with. I'm saying that his presence, bat and results an take a 70 win team and turn them into a .500 team. Ditto with Trout and the likes.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm not saying he will have "11 WAR" I am saying that WAR in itself is flawed to begin with. I'm saying that his presence, bat and results an take a 70 win team and turn them into a .500 team. Ditto with Trout and the likes.

Some day, I think metrics will attempt to measure "influence". How does a guy like Sano alter the approach to a lineup? Maybe it's very little, maybe it's significant but I think it has some impact on how pitchers approach a great player.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm not saying he will have "11 WAR" I am saying that WAR in itself is flawed to begin with. I'm saying that his presence, bat and results an take a 70 win team and turn them into a .500 team. Ditto with Trout and the likes.

 

Hmmm....if WAR=wins I'd get if I replaced random player with this player.....going from 70 to 81 wins would be 11 WAR. Putting aside how it is calculated on various sites, you are saying that SANO is worth 11 wins to a team. That just seems hard to believe, for me. 

 

I'd guess he's more like 7-8 when he's at his best. Which is probably just outside the margin of error to get to 10-11, imo.

[DaveW]

 

I am thinking 5% if the current outfield can stay healthy. 

Fair enough. Though he definitely can't sustain what he has been doing: .129 BABIP and a 99% strand rate.

Ultimately I think he ends up in the top 5 or so for Cy Young votes, but loses out. (Hopefully can end the season with a sub 2.80 ERA and 200+ IP, that would make me beyond pleased- and massive amount of trade value as well)

[DaveW]

 

Hmmm....if WAR=wins I'd get if I replaced random player with this player.....going from 70 to 81 wins would be 11 WAR. Putting aside how it is calculated on various sites, you are saying that SANO is worth 11 wins to a team. That just seems hard to believe, for me. 

 

I'd guess he's more like 7-8 when he's at his best. Which is probably just outside the margin of error to get to 10-11, imo.

Yes, I think that a player like Sano (who literally won 2 games in the last week with his bat alone) is a difference of 10-11 wins a season (if he keeps up what he is doing)

Bonds in his prime I think was probably worth 20-25 wins per season, just the way teams had to approach him and all of that. Those Giant teams he were on were very very mediocre besides him, those teams were him, Jeff Kent, and a bunch of "meh" hell they won 97 games with Livan Hernandez as their ace. Without Bonds? 75 win team.

Players like that make everyone around them that much better (look at how Kepler has come alive ever since they started putting him in front of or behind Sano)

[DaveW]

 

Some day, I think metrics will attempt to measure "influence". How does a guy like Sano alter the approach to a lineup? Maybe it's very little, maybe it's significant but I think it has some impact on how pitchers approach a great player.

Just look at the 2003 SF Giants:

100 Wins

Bonds is the reason why that team won 100 games, no if's and's or butts. The 2nd best hitter on the squad was freaking JT Snow! With all of his 8 HR and .806 OPS

Jason Schmidt had a good season as their ace, but the rest of the rotation: Reuter, Williams, Moss, Foppert? Definition of mediocre.

Without a doubt that is a .500 team without the Barry.



edit: changed 2002 to 2003
 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Just look at the 2002 SF Giants:

100 Wins

Bonds is the reason why that team won 100 games, no if's and's or butts. The 2nd best hitter on the squad was freaking JT Snow! With all of his 8 HR and .806 OPS

Jason Schmidt had a good season as their ace, but the rest of the rotation: Reuter, Williams, Moss, Foppert? Definition of mediocre.

Without a doubt that is a .500 team without the Barry.

That team also had Jeff Kent in his prime. 

[jimmer]

Santana has a FIP of 3.17 and an xFIP of 4.10.

 

Sale has a FIP of 1.16 and and xFIP of 2.09.

 

Sale has a K/9 of 12.42 and bb/9 of 1.43.

Santana has a K/9 of 6.69 and a bb/9 of 2.57.

 

Santana is being helped by a great babip (.129) Sale's babip is .278.

 

Sale has a K% of 37.4 (leads league). Santana is at 21.1% good for 23rd.

 

I am comfortable saying Sale has been much better. Thats not a knock on Santana or his season thus far, though.

[Celebrity Weddings!]

 

That team also had Jeff Kent in his prime. 

 

Yeah. That was a weird omission. Kent was a 7 win player that year. 

 

edited to add: Oh, 2003 maybe? Kent was departed, but Ray Durham stepped in and did a nice job.

[Vanimal46]

Paul Molitor
12:23 I love how Miguel Sano is playing right now... Hitting the ball so freaking hard! He does have a .450 BABIP though. Where do you think he'll end up on MVP voting lists?

 

Travis Sawchik
12:24 Paul, he's got a shot to garner some MVP votes as down-ballot candidate .... He's going to get 90-100 walks and hit 35-plus bombs and his skill-set at third base is probably better than most think. We'll have to see what Buxton does, but Sano looks like a star

[Mike Sixel]

 

Paul Molitor
12:23 I love how Miguel Sano is playing right now... Hitting the ball so freaking hard! He does have a .450 BABIP though. Where do you think he'll end up on MVP voting lists?

 

Travis Sawchik
12:24 Paul, he's got a shot to garner some MVP votes as down-ballot candidate .... He's going to get 90-100 walks and hit 35-plus bombs and his skill-set at third base is probably better than most think. We'll have to see what Buxton does, but Sano looks like a star

 

dang man, you just beat me here!

 

I find it fascinating Molitor even knows FGs exists, let alone he's asking questions there!

[Joe A. Preusser]

Santana has a FIP of 3.17 and an xFIP of 4.10.

Sale has a FIP of 1.16 and and xFIP of 2.09.

Sale has a K/9 of 12.42 and bb/9 of 1.43.

Santana has a K/9 of 6.69 and a bb/9 of 2.57.

Santana is being helped by a great babip (.129) Sale's babip is .278.

Sale has a K% of 37.4 (leads league). Santana is at 21.1% good for 23rd.

I am comfortable saying Sale has been much better. Thats not a knock on Santana or his season thus far, though.

Good point. Sale has been allowing WAY better contact than Santana, hence the much worse BABIP. Clearly Santana has been throwing better.

[DaveW]

 

That team also had Jeff Kent in his prime. 

Sorry, I meant 2003 (when they won 100 games)

Kent was NOT on the 2003 team. He was on Houston in 2003 (where he lost .70 OPS after leaving the Bonds led Giants)

[DaveW]

 

Santana has a FIP of 3.17 and an xFIP of 4.10.

Sale has a FIP of 1.16 and and xFIP of 2.09.

Sale has a K/9 of 12.42 and bb/9 of 1.43.
Santana has a K/9 of 6.69 and a bb/9 of 2.57.

Santana is being helped by a great babip (.129) Sale's babip is .278.

Sale has a K% of 37.4 (leads league). Santana is at 21.1% good for 23rd.

I am comfortable saying Sale has been much better. Thats not a knock on Santana or his season thus far, though.

Results are ultimately what matter.

Sale is the better pitcher, no doubt. But Santana has gotten the better results.

[DaveW]

 

Yeah. That was a weird omission. Kent was a 7 win player that year. 

 

edited to add: Oh, 2003 maybe? Kent was departed, but Ray Durham stepped in and did a nice job.

Yeah it was 2003. My bad. Durham was solid no doubt, 3.2 WAR, nothing to sneeze at no doubt. But again, when that is your 2nd best position player it's not like a Durham lead team (minus bonds) would be a better than .500 team (IMO)

[jimmer]

Results are ultimately what matter.

 

Sale is the better pitcher, no doubt. But Santana has gotten the better results.

yes, if you believe ERA is the stat that best tells you a pitcher's results, then Santana has had better results.

[gunnarthor]

Sano has two big problems for MVP - 1) Twins overall record and 2) how voters use WAR.  Now, the Twins might end up being better than everyone thinks and their record helps Sano.  That would be awesome.  On WAR, a lot of people pay lip service to its problems but then go ape**** when the voting doesn't follow it.  So I'm not sure how he can get over that barrier.  

[cmoss84]

Sano is barely scratching the surface of how good he can be. What's most exciting to me is that he is starting to hit the ball to right field on a normal basis. If he continues this and improves his plate discipline a step farther, we could be talking Miggy Cabrera status. 

 

Everyone keeps saying that players on losing teams don't win MVPs. The last time I checked, we are 12-11. I don't see any reason we can't having a winning record at the end of this year when it's all said and done, especially with the depth of pitching about to come up. 

[DaveW]

 

yes, if you believe ERA is the stat that best tells you a pitcher's results, then Santana has had better results.

That's what results are.

Can't lose games if you don't give up runs. All I heard was that the Wild were the "better" team then the Blues, but the Blues won 4 games to 1 and are still in the playoffs, the Wild are on the range.

Results matter and are all that matter at the end of the day. The Twins weren't even close to being the "best" team in 87, and maybe not even one of the best 5 teams in baseball. Does that matter? Hell no! 

[DaveW]

 

Sano is barely scratching the surface of how good he can be. What's most exciting to me is that he is starting to hit the ball to right field on a normal basis. If he continues this and improves his plate discipline a step farther, we could be talking Miggy Cabrera status. 

 

Everyone keeps saying that players on losing teams don't win MVPs. The last time I checked, we are 12-11. I don't see any reason we can't having a winning record at the end of this year when it's all said and done, especially with the depth of pitching about to come up. 

Yeah, him hitting to CF and RF is super super super super encouraging, even moreso when those balls are going over fences.

[Steve Lein]

 

Chris Sale has been head and shoulders better than Santana, who is off to a great start.

 

I don't know, Santana's ERA+ is 513, while Sale's is 361.... The strikeouts are a good case, but Erv's got him on WHIP too.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Santana has a FIP of 3.17 and an xFIP of 4.10.

Sale has a FIP of 1.16 and and xFIP of 2.09.

Sale has a K/9 of 12.42 and bb/9 of 1.43.

Santana has a K/9 of 6.69 and a bb/9 of 2.57.

Santana is being helped by a great babip (.129) Sale's babip is .278.

Sale has a K% of 37.4 (leads league). Santana is at 21.1% good for 23rd.

I am comfortable saying Sale has been much better. Thats not a knock on Santana or his season thus far, though.

Good point. Sale has been allowing WAY better contact than Santana, hence the much worse BABIP. Clearly Santana has been throwing better.

[GP830]

Judge= I have no idea who to compare him to potentially, never seen anyone like him.

Stanton?

[drjim]

yes, if you believe ERA is the stat that best tells you a pitcher's results, then Santana has had better results.

Outs recorded and runs allowed are probably the most important thing in baseball.

 

Do think the current pace doesn't stay going forward.

[Mike Sixel]

Are we actually arguing about Sale vs Santana? 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Are we actually arguing about Sale vs Santana? 

Weirdly, yes, it appears that is the case.

[Tuba]

 

Weirdly, yes, it appears that is the case.

 

As luck would have it they are tentatively scheduled to face each other next week.

[SwainZag]

 

I remember Andre Dawson winning the MVP while playing for a horrible Cubs team.  That's about it...

 

Haha only one I didn't know, I kept thinking I spelled Sandberg wrong.

[Vanimal46]

 

I remember Andre Dawson winning the MVP while playing for a horrible Cubs team.  That's about it...

 

How quickly we forget.... Mike Trout from last season says hello! 

[Mike Sixel]

 

How quickly we forget.... Mike Trout from last season says hello! 

 

who?