Sano= Early MVP favorite?

[yarnivek1972]

Maybe right now. But the team has still only played one series outside the division. Right now about all we can conclude is that the Royals are turrible. The Twins are about on par with the Sox and Tigers and the Indians are likely to soon rise to become the clear favorite. They are 9-4 since starting the season 5-7.

 

It doesn't change Sano's numbers obviously. His are certainly very good. But to be the MVP you usually need to be on a contender. I'm not convinced the Twins will.

[DaveW]

It Sano ends the season with 40 HR and an ops of 1.000+ he will finish in the top 2 or 3 regardless of how many games the Twins lose.

[drjim]

Maybe right now. But the team has still only played one series outside the division. Right now about all we can conclude is that the Royals are turrible. The Twins are about on par with the Sox and Tigers and the Indians are likely to soon rise to become the clear favorite. They are 9-4 since starting the season 5-7.

 

It doesn't change Sano's numbers obviously. His are certainly very good. But to be the MVP you usually need to be on a contender. I'm not convinced the Twins will.

While fair, it's also not clear there are many really good teams outside the Central either.

 

Probably the Astros and Red Sox are the best with Cleveland, Yankees will be a tough out if pitching holds up, and Orioles are doing their thing. Outside of them, Twins can hang with everyone else.

[Twinsbar107]

 

As luck would have it they are tentatively scheduled to face each other next week.

Not sure it is good luck, on the Twins part.

[jimmer]

David Ortiz led the majors in OPS with a 1.021 OPS.  Next highest was 30 points behind him.  He tied for the lead the AL in RBI and he led the majors in doubles. He finished 6th in MVP voting even though he played for a 1st place team.  The people who finished ahead deserved to.

 

It's nice they are paying attention to other parts of the game now.

[Mike Sixel]

 

David Ortiz led the majors in OPS with a 1.021 OPS.  Next highest was 30 points behind him.  He tied for the lead the AL in RBI and he led the majors in doubles. He finished 6th in MVP voting even though he played for a 1st place team.

 

It's nice they are paying attention to other parts of the game now.

 

And Sano plays 3B, not DH, and so far is average at defense for a 3B. 

[jimmer]

 

And Sano plays 3B, not DH, and so far is average at defense for a 3B. 

well, close to average, but we'll see how that plays out.  hopefully plays out well.

[Jacksson]

Buxton = One more day closer to being BUST-on.

[Guest]

I like Sano very much as a player and think he has been unfairly maligned (even in the last few weeks) for acting like a normal 23 year old who works for a company with a bad culture, but we should go a little slower on the emotional boomerang before declaring stardom just because he surpassed Brant Alyea and Ron Coomer in the Twins' record books for April.

[kab21]

 

It Sano ends the season with 40 HR and an ops of 1.000+ he will finish in the top 2 or 3 regardless of how many games the Twins lose.

This is true but it is different than winning. He is certainly on pace to get some votes.

[Pardon My Dinger]

Buxton = One more day closer to being BUST-on.

Well that seemed unnecessary.

[DaveW]

Buxton = One more day closer to being BUST-on.

Dad Joke +1

[DaveW]

And Sano plays 3B, not DH, and so far is average at defense for a 3B.

Yup, and average is just fine. My biggest problem with wAR is how it completely over rates defense in a lot of cases.

[Turd Furgeson]

 

Yup, and average is just fine. My biggest problem with wAR is how it completely over rates defense in a lot of cases.

 

Perhaps you underrate it. I think WAR can be unreliable at times in small sample sizes because UZR takes a large sample size to remove a lot of potential error and it also struggles with evaluating defensive shifts. I do think defense is really important though. Tracking down a fly ball in the outfield that other players wouldn't get to may mean that you save 1 to 2 runs, which could mean the difference between a win and a loss. Part of the reason our pitchers are doing well is because our defense is good. 

[adorduan]

 

Yup, and average is just fine. My biggest problem with wAR is how it completely over rates defense in a lot of cases.

Yet plenty run the stat out on this board to defend Buxton.

[gunnarthor]

 

Perhaps you underrate it. I think WAR can be unreliable at times in small sample sizes because UZR takes a large sample size to remove a lot of potential error and it also struggles with evaluating defensive shifts. I do think defense is really important though. Tracking down a fly ball in the outfield that other players wouldn't get to may mean that you save 1 to 2 runs, which could mean the difference between a win and a loss. Part of the reason our pitchers are doing well is because our defense is good. 

From a Posnanski piece.  "Here is Bill James on Wins Above Replacement, perhaps the hottest advanced statistic in the game right now:

“Well, my math skills are limited and my data-processing skills are essentially nonexistent. The younger guys are way, way beyond me in those areas. I’m fine with that, and I don’t struggle against it, and I hope that I don’t deny them credit for what they can do that I can’t.

“But because that is true, I ASSUMED that these were complex, nuanced, sophisticated systems. I never really looked; I just assumed that the details were out of my depth. But sometime in the last year I was doing some research that relied on these WAR systems, so I took a look at them, and … they’re not very impressive. They’re not well thought through; they haven’t made a convincing effort to address many of the inherent difficulties that the undertaking presents. They tend to get so far into the data, throw up their arms and make a wild guess. I don’t know if I’m going to get the time to do better of it, or if it will be left to others, but … we’re not at anything like an end point here. I assumed that these systems were a lot better than they actually are.”"

 

http://sportsworld.nbcsports.com/bill-james-statistical-revolution/

 

And I can't find the link but Posnanski also mentioned that a ML team (maybe Oakland?) internal measuring systems had Cabrera ahead of Trout the year Cabrera won the MVP but the internet blew up over Trout's snub. 

 

As fans we greatly overrate WAR in both its measurements as well as its margin of error.  http://joeposnanski.com/a-bit-more-on-war/

[Otto von Ballpark]

And I can't find the link but Posnanski also mentioned that a ML team (maybe Oakland?) internal measuring systems had Cabrera ahead of Trout the year Cabrera won the MVP but the internet blew up over Trout's snub.

Was this the same internal measuring system that informed the Donaldson for Lawrie swap?

[DaveW]

WAR said that Abad, Kintzler and Rosario were all significantly more valuable then Sano last year, and that Nunez (traded half way into season) was still twice as valuable as Sano.

Sorry, it's a flawed stat. Especially when factoring in defense for non elite positions (CF/SS) and non elite defenders at those positions and every other position.

Nothing is more over-rated in WAR than "great" RF/LF or 1B/3B defense.

 

[Turd Furgeson]

 

WAR said that Abad, Kintzler and Rosario were all significantly more valuable then Sano last year, and that Nunez (traded half way into season) was still twice as valuable as Sano.

Sorry, it's a flawed stat. Especially when factoring in defense for non elite positions (CF/SS) and non elite defenders at those positions and every other position.

Nothing is more over-rated in WAR than "great" RF/LF or 1B/3B defense.

 

 

All things are flawed, no one thing is perfect and that includes the eye test. So in order to reach the closest approximation of what happens on the field we should utilize all the tools that are available to us.

 

WAR doesn't say they are significantly more valuable, there is a less than 1 WAR difference between them. You're comparing Sano to pitchers, I'm not 100% confident in its ability to compare value of position players and pitchers but to me that doesn't really matter. Also, it seems you're using baseball-reference WAR rather than fangraphs WAR, that's not to say baseball-reference is worse necessarily but I think fangraphs captures defense a bit better because they do things differently. Also I'm pretty sure that a difference of 1 WAR is within the margin of error and furthermore there's a fair bit of noise in a 1 year sample of WAR. 

 

It boggles my mind that people dismiss the value of defense at all positions. I mean, if you're talking about 1B then sure it's probably the easiest defensive position but if you didn't know, WAR penalizes players heavily just for playing that position because it is much easier to play then most others. Fangraphs goes into great detail about how they arrive at their numbers and things like positional value are taken into account. 

[HitInAPinch]

“But because that is true, I ASSUMED that these were complex, nuanced, sophisticated systems. I never really looked; I just assumed that the details were out of my depth."'

 

I feel that way every day....

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

WAR said that Abad, Kintzler and Rosario were all significantly more valuable then Sano last year, and that Nunez (traded half way into season) was still twice as valuable as Sano.

Sorry, it's a flawed stat. Especially when factoring in defense for non elite positions (CF/SS) and non elite defenders at those positions and every other position.

Nothing is more over-rated in WAR than "great" RF/LF or 1B/3B defense.

First, neither Abad nor Kintzler were more valuable than Sano in 2016 by either bWAR or fWAR.

Second, WAR doesn't believe Rosario was significantly more valuable than Sano, as Eddie had roughly half a point higher in fWAR value. That's well within the margins of wiggle room. As for bWAR, Sano had the half-point advantage.

 

Sano was terrible in right field, bad at third base, and spent most of his time at DH. Despite playing all of his time at some of the most bat-first positions on the diamond, he only posted a .781 OPS for the season.

 

It seems pretty damned logical to me that Rosario, even with his .718 OPS, was more valuable than Miguel last season. He's a clear defensive asset on a team that loves to throw the baseball at bats. And given the small difference between bWAR and fWAR (a half point each direction), it's pretty much a wash and certainly not significant.

 

As for Nunez, he played a full season, posted an adjusted OPS just a few percentage points below Sano, and did it while playing decent defense in the field. So you have a guy who hit at a similar clip, played ~40 more games, and was an asset in the field, not a detriment. If you don't think that guy is worth more, I'm not sure what to say.

 

And even then, Nunez wasn't significantly more valuable than Sano.

A bit over 1.5 wins by fWAR standards, a bit over 1 win by bWAR.

[Mike Sixel]

Oh boy, another WAR sucks thread.

[Mike Sixel]

 

First, neither Abad nor Kintzler were more valuable than Sano in 2016 by either bWAR or fWAR.

Second, WAR doesn't believe Rosario was significantly more valuable than Sano, as Eddie had roughly half a point higher in fWAR value. That's well within the margins of wiggle room. As for bWAR, Sano had the half-point advantage.

 

Sano was terrible in right field, bad at third base, and spent most of his time at DH. Despite playing all of his time at some of the most bat-first positions on the diamond, he only posted a .781 OPS for the season.

 

It seems pretty damned logical to me that Rosario, even with his .718 OPS, was more valuable than Miguel last season. He's a clear defensive asset on a team that loves to throw the baseball at bats. And given the small difference between bWAR and fWAR (a half point each direction), it's pretty much a wash and certainly not significant.

 

As for Nunez, he played a full season, posted an adjusted OPS just a few percentage points below Sano, and did it while playing decent defense in the field. So you have a guy who hit at a similar clip, played ~40 more games, and was an asset in the field, not a detriment. If you don't think that guy is worth more, I'm not sure what to say.

 

And even then, Nunez wasn't significantly more valuable than Sano.

A bit over 1.5 wins by fWAR standards, a bit over 1 win by bWAR.

 

Stop with the logic, Brock. They don't care. WAR sucks. It's that simple.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Stop with the logic, Brock. They don't care. WAR sucks. It's that simple.

I really don't mind when people question WAR. It's good to question things (most of the time).

 

I have issues with people who use it when convenient and discard it when it's not.

 

I have my own problems with WAR. I think it leads to specious results when the majority of WAR is accumulated through defense, especially for players through the 90s and 2000s. And also its defensive accuracy over partial seasons.

 

I also have issues with fWAR for pitchers, as it measures expected results over actual results. That's good for projection and maybe not so good for valuation of things that actually occurred on a baseball diamond.

 

But I also believe it continues to get better and is a good quick and dirty valuation of a player.

[drjim]

We should stop talking about WAR. The issue is settled.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I really don't mind when people question WAR. It's good to question things (most of the time).

 

I have issues with people who use it when convenient and discard it when it's not.

 

I have my own problems with WAR. I think it leads to specious results when the majority of WAR is accumulated through defense, especially for players through the 90s and 2000s. And also its defensive accuracy over partial seasons.

 

I also have issues with fWAR for pitchers, as it measures expected results over actual results. That's good for projection and maybe not so good for valuation of things that actually occurred on a baseball diamond.

 

But I also believe it continues to get better and is a good quick and dirty valuation of a player.

 

And yet, I read all the time "if Berrios can just hit 230, his defense makes him valuable!". Uh, that's basically a WAR argument.....

 

Putting aside how it is calculated, it's a WAR argument. And, it greatly values his defense.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

And yet, I read all the time "if Berrios can just hit 230, his defense makes him valuable!". Uh, that's basically a WAR argument.....

 

Putting aside how it is calculated, it's a WAR argument. And, it greatly values his defense.

I'm going to assume you meant Buxton there.

 

Sure, that's definitely a WAR argument. As I said, most of my problems with modern WAR come from partial seasons and its use for past players. I don't fully trust the metric when it comes to defense but I don't think it's bat**** insane, either. Most of the time, it aligns with what I see on the field.

 

For example, right now UZR/150 (one of the worst stats in modern metrics, IMO) has Buxton as a +48 run defender. That's absurd.

 

But if Buxton sticks around all season, that number will likely normalize and he'll just be really, really good defensively... not GOAT defensively.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm going to assume you meant Buxton there.

 

Sure, that's definitely a WAR argument. As I said, most of my problems with modern WAR come from partial seasons and its use for past players. I don't fully trust the metric when it comes to defense but I don't think it's bat**** insane, either. Most of the time, it aligns with what I see on the field.

 

For example, right now UZR/150 (one of the worst stats in modern metrics, IMO) has Buxton as a +48 run defender. That's absurd.

 

But if Buxton sticks around all season, that number will likely normalize and he'll just be really, really good defensively... not GOAT defensively.

 

Ha, no, I totally meant Berrios! Sigh. 

 

No one has ever put up that number in a full season. My issue isn't the valuation of defense, thought I do have questions about it. It's that it's really convenient for people to diss WAR, then use a WAR argument about Buxton's awesomeness....

 

Also, the statements of just alternative facts to justify the hatred.

[brvama]

Well, back to the original post, I think it's fun to speculate on an MVP for Sano. There are still 5 months left in the season. If he continues to play near this level he'll be in the mix.

Actually I'm more excited about the possibility that Sano has a chance to be voted into the ASG. A deserved selection instead a obligated per team one. In fact with Santana's performance the Twins could get two deserved selections.

All this means is that Twins baseball is enjoyable again. Which translates to more positive posts.

[gunnarthor]

 

I'm going to assume you meant Buxton there.

 

Sure, that's definitely a WAR argument. As I said, most of my problems with modern WAR come from partial seasons and its use for past players. I don't fully trust the metric when it comes to defense but I don't think it's bat**** insane, either. Most of the time, it aligns with what I see on the field.

 

For example, right now UZR/150 (one of the worst stats in modern metrics, IMO) has Buxton as a +48 run defender. That's absurd.

 

But if Buxton sticks around all season, that number will likely normalize and he'll just be really, really good defensively... not GOAT defensively.

I don't like WAR but I use it a lot for shorthand.  My main problem with it is how people - like me - use it without understanding it's margin of error.  According to Sean Foreman a 3 WAR catcher and a 1.5 WAR LF might be equal or the LF might even be more valuable.  But we fans constantly say that player A with a .3 WAR advantage is the superior player.  Hell, we said it in this thread.  WAR is not nearly that concise.