Article: Impromptu Draft Update

[zenser]

Is the hitter, I think from Mississippi St(?) draft eligible this year?  I can't think of his name but his numbers are unreal.

 

Originally, I was all for a college arm.  Greene has grown on me.  I wouldn't be disappointed if they take Greene and he fails.  At least they took a shot at a talent that could change the organization.  I would be disappointed if they pass and he turns out to be all that was advertised.  If that is the case, McKay being equally as advertised would help get over that disappointment.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Is the hitter, I think from Mississippi St(?) draft eligible this year?  I can't think of his name but his numbers are unreal.

 

Brent Rooker? Yeah. The Twins drafted him last year.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I am not overly concerned about the Twins saving money.

 

If they are saving money to use and get another guy who would normally go higher, I'm fine with it...  If they save money to save the Polhads some cash, not so much.

 

There's nothing wrong with using slot savings to toss at a higher ceiling guy that they can force into a later round. It's a great way to strengthen the system. 

 

As for me, I think I'm pretty firmly in the McKay camp after reading Jeremy's writeup.  If the difference between the two isn't all that much, I think the much higher floor is without question valuable, and if it comes with a cap savings, even better.

[Willihammer]

 

EDIT: The original plan was for Greene to pitch against Crespi on Friday, but the game was cancelled because of Crespi's prom.

How does that even happen?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Brent Rooker? Yeah. The Twins drafted him last year.

 

Just curious where you think he might go.  That's another guy I'd love to see the Twins take, especially if he's not a first rounder.

[Willihammer]

I worry that the entire industry, which has been following Greene since he was a grade schooler according to the SI piece, has some tunnel vision going on.

Don't get me wrong, the velo is enticing and he seems like a high character kid but the amount of contact he allows just doesn't seem to warrant all the hyperbole IMHO.

[Vanimal46]

Concur with several people here... If Greene is the guy at 1:1, then pony up and don't low ball him. This organization does have depth.... It's debatable how good/great the depth is, but it's there. They're sorely lacking star power.

 

I'd take my chances on Greene, who's been called a generational talent by KLAW, Longenhagen, and other national authors. 

[Mike Sixel]

As I said in the general draft thread, KLAW has his top 50 up.

 

McKay is third, btw.....

 

I'm not going to rip a Greene, McKay or Wright pick (assuming Wright looks great the rest of the year). Anyone else? I'm going to seriously question the new FO.

 

There is a MN HS kid he has 15th....

[markos]

 

This isn't true. Last year, without a huge pool, the Twins went two rounds overslot with two players (Balazovic and Schick) and also were able to bank enough to sign an 11th rounder for 3rd round money.

 

Only four teams spent $600k or more on any pick after the Top 10 rounds. The Twins were one of them.

 

They're willing to play the game. They just haven't played it like the Astros have.

I think it is mostly true that the Twins are among the least creative. Sure, the Twins haven't signed every single draftee exactly at slot since 2012. But neither has any other team. So you need to judge the Twins based on the other teams. Yes, they signed Benninghoff to a big-ish deal, but half the teams in baseball have signed at least one post-10th-round pick for similar money since 2012. That isn't a difference maker.

 

Looking just at last year, Benninghoff was the only guy they signed for more than the 100K limit after round 10. Many other teams selected and signed multiple such players. The Dodgers alone signed 4.

Going back further, since the current bonus pool structure started in 2012, the Twins have only signed 3 players total for more than the $100K limit after the 10th round. The only teams with the same or fewer such signings are the Orioles, Mariners and Rockies. Every other team has more. The Cardinals, Mets and Pirates all have signed 10 or more. And the Orioles and Mariners at least have the excuse that they have been winning and signing FAs, so their overall bonus pools have been much, much lower.

 

Twins need to be judged based on opportunity. Since 2012, they have benefited by having some of the largest bonus pools and multiple extra picks. Yet I can count on one hand the number of "creative" moves that they have done over the past five drafts. So I think it is completely fair to say they are among the least creative teams in baseball.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think it is mostly true that the Twins are among the least creative. Sure, the Twins haven't signed every single draftee exactly at slot since 2012. But neither has any other team. So you need to judge the Twins based on the other teams. Yes, they signed Benninghoff to a big-ish deal, but half the teams in baseball have signed at least one post-10th-round pick for similar money since 2012. That isn't a difference maker.

 

Looking just at last year, Benninghoff was the only guy they signed for more than the 100K limit after round 10. Many other teams selected and signed multiple such players. The Dodgers alone signed 4.

Going back further, since the current bonus pool structure started in 2012, the Twins have only signed 3 players total for more than the $100K limit after the 10th round. The only teams with the same or fewer such signings are the Orioles, Mariners and Rockies. Every other team has more. The Cardinals, Mets and Pirates all have signed 10 or more. And the Orioles and Mariners at least have the excuse that they have been winning and signing FAs, so their overall bonus pools have been much, much lower.

 

Twins need to be judged based on opportunity. Since 2012, they have benefited by having some of the largest bonus pools and multiple extra picks. Yet I can count on one hand the number of "creative" moves that they have done over the past five drafts. So I think it is completely fair to say they are among the least creative teams in baseball.

 

Not to mention the farm system isn't exactly highly ranked....so what they have been doing hasn't been working all that well.

[drjim]

I thought 2013 was a relatively creative draft.

 

I don't know all the teams that well, but I imagine, like most things, the Twins are more the mushy middle than they are especially bad.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

How does that even happen?

 

I don't know. I wondered the same thing... but didn't think any explanation would leave me scratching my head less.

 

Looking at their schedule, it appears the game against Crespi is on Thursday now. I wonder if it was just a scheduling thing. Mapping out bullpens and such and if they were already thinking about shutting him down, moving a game one day would alter Greene's schedule. I don't know, just speculating. Not sure how long ago the game was moved either.

[Trov]

It will be interesting to see who the new FO goes after.  Greene is going to be more years away being HS kid.  McKay is LH which is always upside.  Both offer something of offense if pitching does not take for some reason.  McKay could break out next year or year after, depending on how new FO moves prospects, old he would be 2 to 3 years most likely.  Greene would be 3-5 depending on development as well.

 

I would go Greene, he is HS kid so higher ceiling, sure higher chance of bust too, but with him being good SS too, if for some reason he does not develop more pitches as he ages he could switch to SS or some other position.

 

I also mentioned in a completely outside the box thinking for Greene in the future would be this.  Say he only learns a second good pitch to go with his fastball.  He gets on path of a closer, but you also use him at a position, then in save situations he comes in to close.  

 

Overall, I just see more options and upside with Greene then with McKay with either does not pan out as a pitcher I see more potential with Greene changing to hitter.  

[howieramone2]

 

Not to mention the farm system isn't exactly highly ranked....so what they have been doing hasn't been working all that well.

You do know we have the second youngest team in all of baseball right?  

[Mike Sixel]

 

You do know we have the second youngest team in all of baseball right?  

 

Almost none of whom were acquired in the last 5 years in the draft or IFA. 

[howieramone2]

 

Almost none of whom were acquired in the last 5 years in the draft or IFA. 

We were talking about the farm system. The 2012 draft was one of the strongest I recall, and every one since has given every indication it will be successful also. I'm sure I don't have to remind you a successful draft is defined as one which provides 2 contributors. I challenge you to provide anything thing at all in print that doesn't show our favorite team is among the best in IFA. Ben Balder at BA has always been very complimentary. 

 

Also, I'm sure you know most IFA signing are 16 years old. You wouldn't expect to see those signed in the past 5 years in the majors. 

Edited April 26, 2017 by howieramone2

[Mike Sixel]

 

We were talking about the farm system. The 2012 draft was one of the strongest I recall, and every one since has given every indication it will be successful also. I'm sure I don't have to remind you a successful draft is defined as one which provides 2 contributors. I challenge you to provide anything thing at all in print that doesn't show our favorite team is among the best in IFA. Ben Balder at BA has always been very complimentary. 

 

I pointed out that the farm system is not currently considered one of the best. Nothing more, nothing less. I don't want to clutter a draft thread with this discussion. 

[AZTwin]

I worry that the entire industry, which has been following Greene since he was a grade schooler according to the SI piece, has some tunnel vision going on.

Don't get me wrong, the velo is enticing and he seems like a high character kid but the amount of contact he allows just doesn't seem to warrant all the hyperbole IMHO.

was looking at his stats last night but couldn't find the one I was looking for. Any clue how many hits per inning he was giving up?

[Willihammer]

 

was looking at his stats last night but couldn't find the one I was looking for. Any clue how many hits per inning he was giving up?

Here's his stats on maxpreps.com

 

http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/hunter-greene/uMJm9ZrFEeOzMAAmVebBJg/gendersport/baseball-stats.htm

[nater79a]

 

Regardless of which guy they take, I think it would be fun to see they play this summer in some strategic way so that they could DH when they aren't pitching.

 

Something like, Start Day 1. Day 2 don't play. Day 3 and Day 4 - DH, Day 5 - don't play, Day 6 - pitch. (in a 6-man rotation, maybe they DH day 5 too.)

 

I think that'd be fun for E-Town (for Greene) and Cedar Rapids (or Ft. Myers) for McKay.

 

Also, I wonder how much they'll have them pitch this year anyway. 

 

I think you're right on this last part, Seth. At least for McKay. Read somewhere that he may have a limited workload this summer. Maybe 15 innings...2 or 3 outings. Assuming it'd be similar with Greene.

[AZTwin]

Here's his stats on maxpreps.com

 

http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/hunter-greene/uMJm9ZrFEeOzMAAmVebBJg/gendersport/baseball-stats.htm

3 hit batters seems like a lot. Very few walks though. How is his control?

[nater79a]

 

Just looking at stats I think the Twins would be crazy not to draft McKay 1-1. Like Greene a lot but there's so much more risk and his performance in high school is not as strong as McKays in college. McKay has the pitches. He may have the best bat in the draft too. I think these 2 are a clear cut 1-2 in this draft but hard to separate at the top.

 

Yeah, I like McKay a lot... think he;ll be a heck of a pitcher. 

 

Wouldn't mind seeing a 2019 rotation of Berrios, McKay, Romero...maybe Gonsalves and/or whatever young rotation pieces the Twins could get in a Dozier or Santana deal.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

EDIT: The original plan was for Greene to pitch against Crespi on Friday, but the game was cancelled because of Crespi's prom. As of that time, there wasn't further word on if he'd pitch again.

 

 

How does that even happen?

 

Canceled because of prom?  Think of it like a Axe Body Spray rainout.

[Willihammer]

 

3 hit batters seems like a lot. Very few walks though. How is his control?

Using walks, WPs, and HBPs as proxies you'd have to infer that his control is pretty good.

[caninatl04]

Two independent questions:

 

• How big is the difference between HS and college talent?  As big as the difference between say A and AA or A and AAA?  I'm not equating HS to A, just concerned about the difference.
• The twins have a first round supplemental and a 2/1 pick (35 and 37?).  Does that affect the discussion about paying over / under slot?

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

 

Two independent questions:

 

• How big is the difference between HS and college talent?  As big as the difference between say A and AA or A and AAA?  I'm not equating HS to A, just concerned about the difference.
• The twins have a first round supplemental and a 2/1 pick (35 and 37?).  Does that affect the discussion about paying over / under slot?

 

 

on the 2nd bullet, yes. But, the pool size is smaller this year, so it will be harder to play games, we think.

 

As for your other question, it's big. Even the difference between the Big10 (whatever it is called) and the SEC is huge, let alone HS. And, HS in FL or CA is very different than in MN. So, if I had to guess, if HS is A ball, college is AAA. I bet Seth or some other college player could answer that more realistically.

[LiquidQuick]

Brendan McKay sounds like a Beverly Hills 90210 character. . .

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

 

Greene has a much bigger bust factor,  but also has ace stuff.  Downside is, if he cannot make a major league 3rd pitch, he ends up as a closer. 

 

 

 

He needs:

 

• a major league second pitch
• a major league third pitch
• more movement to his fastball.

 

Downside:  He ends up like Tonkin with one less pitch

[Twins33]

I have always been in the Greene camp but I'm warming up to McKay. Biggest reservation is that I don't believe he could be an Ace. Greene has that potential

i feel the same basically. Though I also worry that Greene may only have one pitch, the fastball.

[Twins33]

Brendan McKay sounds like a Beverly Hills 90210 character. . .

Mark Polishuk typed his name as Dylan McKay, which is the 90210 character, on MLB Trade Rumors and checking just now...it is still typed like that 3 days later.