Article: Impromptu Draft Update

[Jeremy Nygaard]

The draft is quickly approaching (but still seems like a lifetime away). Twins Daily's draft coverage is being mapped out.

 

But as of today, there are two major players as candidates for the first overall pick in June's draft and both of those players have made headlines.HUNTER GREENE

 

Let's talk about everyone's favorite prospect first. On Wednesday the newest edition of Sports Illustrated will hit the shelves. On the cover... you guessed it. Greene. Next to his picture are phrases like: "Baseball's LeBron or the New Babe?" and proclaiming Greene as the star "baseball needs." Read the article but be warned, you're going to like Greene even more.

 

Greene has also been the focus of rumors that he's trying to force his way down the draft to his hometown Padres at #3. Those rumors have been floating around in the Twitter-sphere for a bit. In a recent conversation with Greene, he addressed the internet issues, simply saying they're "not true."

 

And to be honest. I don't care if they are or if they aren't. We all have jobs and those jobs are - more than likely - in places that we choose to work. He's grown up on the west coast, worked his tail off on the west coast, and if his preference is to be baseball's next star on the west coast, would you blame him?

 

With all that being said, as of today, I think these internet rumors have been way overblown.

 

On another note, Greene's next start hasn't been scheduled. And no one knows if it will happen again this season or not. I'm still leaning that it will.

 

BRENDAN MCKAY

 

So if Greene isn't the guy, it's gotta be the best pitcher in college baseball right? Or will it be the best power hitter in college baseball?

 

It could be both.

 

On Tuesday, McKay, who one scout told me might be the greatest college baseball player of all time, hit four home runs. The feeling for quite some time is that McKay is a pitcher who could debut in the major leagues in 2018 and fit in the top half of the rotation for years to come. But how do you ignore the bat?

 

With a bat as good as his is, do you dare to get creative and continue to let him hit? You can't completely dismiss that possibility. But how realistic that is remains to be seen.

 

I think the temptation then would be to think that either of Greene or McKay could be two-way guys. But McKay has the leg up there because it would be easier to DH his bat (or play it at first base) than to have Greene play shortstop in between starts.

 

The likely reality, though, is that you can't do that. With either. When you draft either of these guys, you're drafting a pitcher.

 

I was asked today what I would do. If things are equal, I'd take Greene. But what if, through negotiations, you realize you could draft McKay and sign him for $500k less than what Greene wants? What if that number is $750k?

 

What if there is a third player that you like almost as much that will sign for $1.5 million less?

 

This is the question the Twins will have to ask themselves.

 

And answer.

 

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[tobi0040]

We simply can't let money impact this draft.

[yarnivek1972]

Certainly not a relatively paltry amount like $750 K.

[Thrylos]

$500K and $750K is a ridiculous amount and will make zero difference in who the Twins will draft.

 

So far every single mock draft (actually both, because there are only 2 out: BA and Scouts.com) have them draft McCay, and I cannot blame them.   Their logic goes like this:

 

• His ceiling is not that far from Greene's
• He is left-handed
• Unlike Greene, he has 4 MLB-ready pitches
• He could be in an MLB rotation in 2018 or 2019
• Unlike Greene, he has very little possibility to bomb, and a brand new Front Office cannot stand to bomb their first 1-1 selection.

 

I will be surprised if they do not draft McCay, baring any injuries of meteors from now till then.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Certainly not a relatively paltry amount like $750 K.

 

$750k is essentially turning your tenth round pick into a second rounder. So you're crazy to think it doesn't make a difference. You draft a senior in the ninth and 10th round and now you've banked enough to draft another difference-maker ($1m) in Round 11. 

[Broker]

Just flip a coin.

[darin617]

If they could save $1.5M+ it could be worth it to use that money to be able to overpay on a later pick.

It would be nice if the Twins could pull something off like Houston did when they passed on Buxton to pick Carlos Correa & had extra money to pick up Lance McCullers Jr as well.

[nater79a]

I like it. When Joe's contract is up we can play McKay four days at 1B and then pitch the fifth day. He can be the A.L. homerun champ and also the Cy Young Award winner!

 

I'd probably take McKay #1. On the other hand, I'd be intrigued to see Cincy get him #2 and see how he does in the National League.

 

When does McKay pitch again?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I like it. When Joe's contract is up we can play McKay four days at 1B and then pitch the fifth day. He can be the A.L. homerun champ and also the Cy Young Award winner!

I'd probably take McKay #1. On the other hand, I'd be intrigued to see Cincy get him #2 and see how he does in the National League.

When does McKay pitch again?

He got beat up by Duke last weekend. I'm sure he'll throw this weekend.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

If they could save $1.5M+ it could be worth it to use that money to be able to overpay on a later pick.

It would be nice if the Twins could pull something off like Houston did when they passed on Buxton to pick Carlos Correa & had extra money to pick up Lance McCullers Jr as well.

 

The pools have really changed since then. Those days are over. 

 

Last year, the #1 team banks a million and still have $200k more to offer than #2.

 

This year, the difference between the two is only $550k.

 

The difference between #3 and #1 ($1.1m) is tiny compared to last year's difference (~$2.5m). Teams could definitely manipulate the draft if they want... but the pressure comes from the teams behind. Teams that have the most money will still have the power, but it's certainly minimized.

[biggentleben]

The draft flattened out a ton in the middle of the first round as well, with nowhere near the drop after the first 10 picks that there used to be either. There are likely to be less deals.

 

Another thing to consider is that a player can completely opt-out of the draft process now - meaning no team is allowed to select him. That was a little one-line thing in the new CBA and likely won't affect a first round pick, but it could make a difference in saving money for 11th round and beyond.

 

As I'm digging deeper into draft stuff for both sites, I'm finding a lot of interesting scouting differences on players. One guy I'm hearing a ton of helium in talking to guys in the game versus BA/Scout/MLB Pipeline/etc is outfielder Heliot Ramos. I've talked with two scouts in the top 5 that say he's in serious consideration for their team.

[Mr. Brooks]

The pools have really changed since then. Those days are over.

 

Last year, the #1 team banks a million and still have $200k more to offer than #2.

 

This year, the difference between the two is only $550k.

 

The difference between #3 and #1 ($1.1m) is tiny compared to last year's difference (~$2.5m). Teams could definitely manipulate the draft if they want... but the pressure comes from the teams behind. Teams that have the most money will still have the power, but it's certainly minimized.

All the more reason to not let money sway the pick.

[tobi0040]

I am not overly concerned about the Twins saving money.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Baseball America's Hudson Belinsky reporting that Greene's coach informed the team that he will not be pitching for the rest of the year. 

 

Working to independently confirm.

 

EDIT: The original plan was for Greene to pitch against Crespi on Friday, but the game was cancelled because of Crespi's prom. As of that time, there wasn't further word on if he'd pitch again.

[benji21]

@tobi0040- sorry quote isn't working on mobile. It's not really an issue of being concerned for the Twins saving money. I mean, I couldn't care less about the Pohlads bottom line either. But the point is, save a little cash and get multiple terrific prospects, and deeper in the draft, than one phenomenal one. Unless you are being facetious, in that case ignore the above.

[biggentleben]

 

Baseball America's Hudson Belinsky reporting that Greene's coach informed the team that he will not be pitching for the rest of the year. 

 

Working to independently confirm.

 

EDIT: The original plan was for Greene to pitch against Crespi on Friday, but the game was cancelled because of Crespi's prom. As of that time, there wasn't further word on if he'd pitch again.

 

In all seriousness, is this any different than a guy like Christian McCaffrey (sp?) not doing any individual workouts for NFL teams leading up to the draft or skipping his bowl game?

[tobi0040]

Hey Benji,

 

I get the strategy. I just have a few reservations and don't want us to overthink this.

 

If this is truly a 1A and 1B type of draft, I doubt that the financial savings will allow for a great second pick, should all the ducks fall in a row. And the Twins have historically been about the least creative franchise in the game on similar matters, or in other areas like the international pool, so I just don't see it happening. I get that we have a new front office, but after the token rule 5 pick, the minor league contracts, and patchwork pen I have not seen the deviation I expected. It is fun to talk about, debate, and run scenarios but I think you will be underwhelmed.

 

If we have the first pick and take who we deem the best player, than I will take that as a win.

[ThejacKmp]

 

•  a brand new Front Office cannot stand to bomb their first 1-1 selection.

 I would hope their last 1-1 selection

[Seth Stohs]

Not sure if you saw John Manuel's tweet earlier today explaining his article on Greene - where a lot of people said he wanted to play in San Diego (which I also don't blame him)

 

 

[Seth Stohs]

Regardless of which guy they take, I think it would be fun to see they play this summer in some strategic way so that they could DH when they aren't pitching.

 

Something like, Start Day 1. Day 2 don't play. Day 3 and Day 4 - DH, Day 5 - don't play, Day 6 - pitch. (in a 6-man rotation, maybe they DH day 5 too.)

 

I think that'd be fun for E-Town (for Greene) and Cedar Rapids (or Ft. Myers) for McKay.

 

Also, I wonder how much they'll have them pitch this year anyway. 

[mlhouse]

 

Regardless of which guy they take, I think it would be fun to see they play this summer in some strategic way so that they could DH when they aren't pitching.

 

Something like, Start Day 1. Day 2 don't play. Day 3 and Day 4 - DH, Day 5 - don't play, Day 6 - pitch. (in a 6-man rotation, maybe they DH day 5 too.)

 

I think that'd be fun for E-Town (for Greene) and Cedar Rapids (or Ft. Myers) for McKay.

 

Also, I wonder how much they'll have them pitch this year anyway. 

 

 

Yeah, in 12 years we will get Greene up to the majors.

[AZTwin]

I have always been in the Greene camp but I'm warming up to McKay. Biggest reservation is that I don't believe he could be an Ace. Greene has that potential

[AZTwin]

Just looking at stats I think the Twins would be crazy not to draft McKay 1-1. Like Greene a lot but there's so much more risk and his performance in high school is not as strong as McKays in college. McKay has the pitches. He may have the best bat in the draft too. I think these 2 are a clear cut 1-2 in this draft but hard to separate at the top.

[HitInAPinch]

The Twins seem to be in good shape as far as everyday player go.  I have a concerns over the quality of the current and future Twins pitchers.  

 

So, the projection that needs to be done is, which player, Greene or McKay, projects to be the better pitcher in the short-term?

[beckmt]

I will be unhappy if the Twins do not take Greene.  I will understand if they take McKay due to timeline, but feel Greene has a chance to be real special and may be able to be here 2 years later than McKay. 

I agree Mckay could be here in 2019, I see Greene more likely to be 2021, maybe 2020.

To me this is Greene's track

2017 - Elizabethon

2018 - Cedar Rapids/Ft. Myers

2019 - Chatanooga

2020 - Rochester or the Twins.

 

Greene has a much bigger bust factor,  but also has ace stuff.  Downside is, if he cannot make a major league 3rd pitch, he ends up as a closer.  McKay I see more of a #2/#3 starter with some potental to be a little more.

I would still take Greene, Twins need an ace.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

•  a brand new Front Office cannot stand to bomb their first 1-1 selection.

 

I've been thinking about this... if there is a time you can bomb, it's right away. You can't bomb when you're on the hot seat. Obviously 1-1 is different. 

 

Point is... DJ didn't get reassigned for anything he did recently. He got reassigned because of things that didn't work out that happened 5, 6, 7 years ago. Same with TR. 

 

I'm back firmly in the camp that you shoot for the stars here and the biggest star is Greene. 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I also confirmed last night that Greene is done pitching. He says his coach "pulled the plug." 

 

And no, it's not different than guys skipping other things leading up to the draft. 

 

And it's definitely a more positive trend (for the player) than having him throw hundreds of pitches on short rest like a college pitcher would do.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

And the Twins have historically been about the least creative franchise in the game on similar matters, or in other areas like the international pool, so I just don't see it happening. 

 

This isn't true. Last year, without a huge pool, the Twins went two rounds overslot with two players (Balazovic and Schick) and also were able to bank enough to sign an 11th rounder for 3rd round money.

 

Only four teams spent $600k or more on any pick after the Top 10 rounds. The Twins were one of them.

 

They're willing to play the game. They just haven't played it like the Astros have.

 

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Jeremy, with the news of South Carolina's Clarke Schmidt having to have tommy john surgery, is there any thought that he could be available at 35 or 37 for the Twins? He seems like a guy that really could be a top of the line starter in 2019 when he is fully over his rehab. And now, with the injury, he may be more affordable come draft time, where it kind of looked like he could be a top 15 or 20 pick pre injury.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Jeremy, with the news of South Carolina's Clarke Schmidt having to have tommy john surgery, is there any thought that he could be available at 35 or 37 for the Twins? He seems like a guy that really could be a top of the line starter in 2019 when he is fully over his rehab. And now, with the injury, he may be more affordable come draft time, where it kind of looked like he could be a top 15 or 20 pick pre injury.

 

His injury is definitely going to impact the top half of the first round (as will Seth Romero's suspension from Houston). I'd entertain drafting him and paying him extra.

 

The Twins drafted Benninghoff last year and immediately had him undergo TJ, so they're not afraid of a little risk.