A Different Dozier Topic...and something new for us to talk about

[DocBauer]

This a different Dozier topic/idea that has been on my mind a lot lately...with the impending season and all the other various BD conversation...and something that I think is different, fun, and perhaps prudent going forward.

 

To be clear, like most of us I believe, I've never WANTED to trade Dozier, it just seemed like the most intelligent move to make in order to add to the Twins pitching arsenal. But we all know how the market turned out, and Dozier is still a part of our beloved Twins. And let's be honest, that is not necessarily a bad thing. Of course the Twins still need to upgrade their starting staff, but there are various ways to continue to do that over the next season or two. (Though a future trade of BD could still happen) ONE is to continue the development of some pretty interesting in house options. TWO is a reclamation project that the new FO uncovers. THREE is a bulk trade of various milb prospects...of which the Twins are by no means barren, and could be better and deeper as 2017 unfolds...for a young stud or proven veteran for a rebuilding club. FOUR is an all out, big time FA signing after the 2017 season, and there are potentially some very good options out there.

 

The truth is, it will probably include a couple of the options I have listed, and Dozier himself is not a be-all and end-all option.

 

Here's a couple of other things I know, or think I know:

 

1] Dozier is a very, very good ballplayer.

2] Dozier is NOT old.

3] Claims that Dozier will simply NOT in any way be part of the next winning Twins team are short-sighted due to the above listed upgrade options as well as the continued development of the young players making up the rest of the team.

4] The Twins actually have the finances over the next couple of seasons to make a difference.

 

I believe all of the above 4 points are valued, but I'd like to concentrate on #4 initially. The Twins, as of now and last report I read, are somewhere around $7M below last seasons payroll, and about $27M below league average payroll. ($97+ compared to $125+). It's not hard to see Santiago and Perkins gone after this season, which is somewhere around $14-15M in additionall payroll cuts, not including a few raises. After 2018, Mauer and Santana gone is another $37M+ off the payroll. You can do the math.

 

This team, young and getting younger, has the financial flexability over the next two seasons to make a splash or two in the FA market to add a key piece or two and STILL be financially responsible and flexible. This would include the possibility of re-signing the very good ML ballplayer currently on roster named Brian Dozier. Who I remind you again is NOT old. If the trade market simply doesn't unfold for him as many would like, and he keeps producing, he would only be touching 32 when the 2019 season began.

 

Gordon should be ready for SS by then for sure. Polanco can play 2B most assuredly. Other prospects will surely rise, but what to do with Dozier if he's still producing as a barely 32yo? You could let him walk, sure. You could easily have a strong enough team position wise to do so. But couldn't you also re-sign him to play 1B? Or 3B? Now, I know being 5' 11" isn't IDEAL for a 1B, but he has the hands and right side of the infield experience to handle the position. And while I am still a big believer in Sano at 3B, how about moving the big man to the opposite side and put Dozier at the hot corner? His arm would be average, but his hands and movement should be fine there.

 

The whole point is something fun to talk and debate about. We've argued and debated about a trade of Dozier that hasn't happened and may not happen. But again, he's a really good ballplayer. And there may be room for him indeed on the next winning Twins team. Just not as a 2B.

 

Think I'm crazy or out of line or on to something? Tell me something! We're still a week away from position players reporting and 40+ days until games matter. Tell me what you think.

[goulik]

I agree that Dozier could be around when we are in our nextWorld Series. Just because his contract runs out does not mean he's leaving but I don't see him moving to third.

[jorgenswest]

How well have Dozier's comps aged?

 

Seems like he really needs to stay at 2B to keep value. I think we could have looked at a Mauer when he was Dozier's age and felt confident that his bat would be a plus at 1B if he needed to move off catcher. The last thing they need is another huge contract at 1B. That position is too easy to fill inexpensively. Carter and Napoli will be very cheap this year.

[Mike Sixel]

Of course the Twins could outbid the Red Sox (with their GM who buys FAs), Yankees (who have been building toward 2018-22 and Harper/Machado/SPs for some time), Dodgers, Rangers, Cubs, Phillies (who have way more money and are on a similar schedule), and other teams.....but will they?

 

If they re-sign Dozier, that eats, what, 15-20MM a year for three years?

[Thrylos]

The Twins should learn the lessons of non extending players well into their late 30s.  Unless he reverts to the Dozier we all know and love, as a free agent, he would want a 5 year/$20M contract, which will be for his age 32-36 seasons.  Not good.   I'd rather see the Twins invest that $ in extending Sano & Buxton & going after a top of the rotation free agent (or 2).

 

Their middle infield pipeline is very healthy and they do not need Dozier.  They need top of the rotation pitching very badly...

[GP830]

 

The Twins should learn the lessons of non extending players well into their late 30s.  Unless he reverts to the Dozier we all know and love, as a free agent, he would want a 5 year/$20M contract, which will be for his age 32-36 seasons.  Not good.   I'd rather see the Twins invest that $ in extending Sano & Buxton & going after a top of the rotation free agent (or 2).

 

Their middle infield pipeline is very healthy and they do not need Dozier.  They need top of the rotation pitching very badly...

I know Gordon, and Polanco, Vielma, Diaz are en route, but are there others? 

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, I'm not sure I'm a fan of extending him.  He didn't give a year of FA when he got his last extension b/c he wanted to bet on himself. Thus far, he's winning that bet. This likely means the Twins won't be keeping him.

 

We could help him and us though.  I'd have no problems letting him try April at SS and see if he can stick. If he can, we have a SS to trade at the deadline who is hopefully still hitting well. If he fails, we move Polanco to SS and put Dozier back at 2B. 

 

From a value standpoint, Dozier is worth a ton more as a SS than a 2B. 

 

If we truly believe there's no likelihood of this team competing, what's the risk?

[gunnarthor]

This is a good link to the Twins payroll over the upcoming seasons. I agree the Twins could sign a big FA - not Machado big - but I think the Twins brought in Falvey and Levine because those two came from orgs that created some pretty good teams by building from within.

 

Here's a list of the FA after this season - http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/2017-18-mlb-free-agent-list.html and the following season http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/2018-19-mlb-free-agents.html. Obviously, some may sign extensions before that. 

[Vanimal46]

 

Of course the Twins could outbid the Red Sox (with their GM who buys FAs), Yankees (who have been building toward 2018-22 and Harper/Machado/SPs for some time), Dodgers, Rangers, Cubs, Phillies (who have way more money and are on a similar schedule), and other teams.....but will they?

 

If they re-sign Dozier, that eats, what, 15-20MM a year for three years?

At the very least 3 / $45-60... It would not surprise me to see him get a 5 / $85-100 contract from any of the teams you mentioned who lose out of Machado and Harper. 

Falvey and Levine may have big dreams of bidding for the best players in FA, but they still need to get buy-in from the Pohlad's... Tough sell. 

[Thrylos]

 

I know Gordon, and Polanco, Vielma, Diaz are en route, but are there others? 

 

Diaz is a 1B.  Arraez should also be ready around 2019, and he is a second baseman.  Javier likely around 2020 and his ceiling is higher than anyone mentioned.  Palacios might rebound and he looks like he will stick at SS.  Pretty nice pipeline.

[drjim]

I've long thought extending Dozier was an acceptable alternative to making a bad trade.

 

Would probably have to do it now for it to make sense. Not sure I would add more than 3 years to the current deal. Would time out with the rest of the contract obligations.

[Bickle19]

 

Diaz is a 1B.  Arraez should also be ready around 2019, and he is a second baseman.  Javier likely around 2020 and his ceiling is higher than anyone mentioned.  Palacios might rebound and he looks like he will stick at SS.  Pretty nice pipeline.

Blankenhorn has been playing 2nd as well correct?

[Thrylos]

 

Blankenhorn has been playing 2nd as well correct?

 

Yes because his glove at 3B was challenged, but he has LF written all over him, and he will not be ready for a while (2020+)

[ashbury]

How well have Dozier's comps aged?

Jeff Kent is on the list at age 29, and he's the one I would hope for.

 

The others on the list, not so much.

[Mr. Brooks]

I've long thought extending Dozier was an acceptable alternative to making a bad trade.

 

Would probably have to do it now for it to make sense. Not sure I would add more than 3 years to the current deal. Would time out with the rest of the contract obligations.

The fact that Dozier wasn't willing to give up any FA years in his last extension makes me believe he wants to hit free agency, and likely wouldn't have any interest in signing an extension.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

 

...

Think I'm crazy?

..

Well, yeah. Has nothing to do with this post, though.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Jeff Kent is on the list at age 29, and he's the one I would hope for.

 

The others on the list, not so much.

Yup, but Ugla is #2 through age 29, and he is what I see most at the plate. He ended up having two more good seasons, and fell off a bit for a few years, and then cratered completely. So, BD's two years left would fit perfect with Ugla's two more strong years after 29. I could see extending him two additional years now, so that we would have him for four more, but he won't go for that.

 

As for position changes, I only see LF as an option with us and might not be a bad one. He has the speed, and many make the MI to LF transition well.

 

 

[DocBauer]

Let me ask this, if the young talent begins to emerge, and the bullpen is much stronger, (and it should be at least better this season), and the rotation holds together to be average and the Twins DO win 80 games and appear to be moving forward...with the money available the next few seasons...2B/1B/3B...does this make holding on to Dozier more attractive if he continues to produce at a similar level?

[Linus]

Turns out Atlanta was interested in getting a second baseman. Would love to know if the Twins had any discussions.

[Twins33]

 

Turns out Atlanta was interested in getting a second baseman. Would love to know if the Twins had any discussions.

Not sure they were originally interested though. Maybe they were, maybe they weren't.  

 

The reason they needed one now is because Rodriguez was injured in a car accident in late January and will be out 3-5 months. They got Phillips on the cheap, so would be surprised if they called to ask about Dozier. The Braves will probably have a Swanson-Albies MI by mid-season.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Falvey and Levine may have big dreams of bidding for the best players in FA, but they still need to get buy-in from the Pohlad's... Tough sell. 

 

Well we always heard from Terry Ryan that the Pohlads willing to spend more money and weren't restricting him. I guess this next 2-3 years will put that to the test.

[Taildragger8791]

I don't think the team is going to have as much financial flexibility as you think if things pan out. The team will want to get Buxton and Sano under contract in the next couple years to control their arbitration costs and hopefully buy out some free agent time. That might be true of Polanco, Kepler, or Berrios as well. They'll need to acquire a top-end pitcher at some point unless we hit the lottery in a trade or the draft this year. And Dozier himself would be a $20 million per year player in 2 years if he continues to perform. He certainly wouldn't take a discount on the only big contract of his career. He's playing it smart and betting on himself to cash in on his production.

[Brandon Warne]

He's not old, but he's not exactly young, either. 

 

The two primary things that worked against him this offseason were his age and the side of second base he plays on. At his age at shortstop, he'd be a superstar that almost every team would be in line to acquire. Similarly, if he was say, 26.....he'd have had more value.

 

Then again, if either of those were true, the Twins wouldn't be looking to move him.