Predictions: Better or Worse 2017 vs 2016

[goulik]

So do we expect our team to improve without changing? Lets examine the roster and ask ourselves if they will do better or worse in 2017 vs 2016 or stay about the same.

Here are my predictions

WORSE in 2017:

Ervin Santana

Brandon Kintzler

Brian Dozier

Robbie Grossman

Do I have to explain any of these predictions?

 

Stay About the Same:

Buddy Boshers

Ryan O'Rourke

Ryan Pressly

Michael Tonkin

Eduardo Escobar
Joe Mauer

Danny Santana

Max Kepler

For most of these, I think we know who they are and what we will get. Kepler will be a sophmore with ups and downs. I am not expecting him to perform like a veteran yet. I expect the big improvement to come in 2018.

 

Expecting BETTER things than what we saw:

Jose Berrios
Tyler Duffey
Kyle Gibson
Phil Hughes
Pat Light

Trevor May

Glen Perkins
Hector Santiago
John Ryan Murphy
Daniel Palka
Jorge Polanco
Miguel Sano
Kennys Vargas
Byron Buxton
Eddie Rosario
Byung Ho Park

Most of these it cannot get much worse than it was and I am confident it will get better if they make the team. For some of them it is a big if. Hard to improve if you don't make the team...

 

So just by looking at these lists, doing nothing this off season probably means an improved team even before the minor league bull pen improvements arrive.

 

"Playoffs? Who's talking playoffs? Were just trying to win a(some) game(s)"

[Blake]

The Twins win 81 games this year.

 

Because this is a family friendly site, I will not mention where I pulled that figure from.

[Craig Arko]

Yes.

[jimmer]

We could play worse and still win more games than we did last year.  Just like 2015 wasn't reflective of our talent, neither was 2016.  This team was not well assembled and it's still a team that lacks a ton.

 

If the question is, 'will we win more games?', yes.  I'm 99.999999999999999999999% sure we will.

 

 

[strumdatjaguar]

A full season of a slightly regressed Ervin Santana is better than a last year's half season.

[DJSim22]

I also agree the team should be better.  The majority of the younger players should get a bit better and I do think the rotation will be slightly better.  I'd put wins at 65-69. 

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

A full season of a slightly regressed Ervin Santana is better than a last year's half season.

 

Santana started 30 games last year.

I believe you're thinking of 2015.

[Jerr]

 

Yes.

Concur   

 

Twins win 72 games.

[jimmer]

 

A full season of a slightly regressed Ervin Santana is better than a last year's half season.

Did we go back in time by a year where this quote would make sense.  Spoiler:  He ended up having a better year. :-)

[Doomtints]

 

We could play worse and still win more games than we did last year.  Just like 2015 wasn't reflective of our talent, neither was 2016.  This team was not well assembled and it's still a team that lacks a ton.

 

If the question is, 'will we win more games?', yes.  I'm 99.999999999999999999999% sure we will.

 

2002 Tigers fans probably thought the same thing when the Tigers lost 106 games only to then lose 119 in 2003. The 2002 Tigers had a pitching staff that was terrible but could nonetheless wipe the floor with the 2016 Twins pitching staff. They also had a couple of young hitters expected to start performing. If I hop in my time machine I could probably find a quote by a Tigers fan saying the same thing you just said.

If the 2017 Twins start off with a losing streak, I can see the balloon deflating and these young hitters and marginal (at best) pitchers playing to a worse record in 2017 than 2016. Say whatever you want about Kurt Suzuki, he was not the reason the Twins lost 103 games last year and replacing him has been the only move.

 

The Tigers started turning things around in 2004. How did they do that? Surprise -- by signing multiple free agents.

[jimmer]

I feel comfortable with saying this team is better than the record it had last year and we will absolutely have a better record.  I'm not comfortable with saying we'll actually play better though.  Additionally, as other teams tried to get better we mostly stood pat.  That won't help (kind of like it didn't help last year).

[Rhino and Compass]

I think insisting that the only change in the roster from last year is Suzuki leaving and Castro arriving doesn't tell the whole story. They are also replacing rookie Buxton with full year of experience Buxton. They have Kepler as a starter for the full season. If for no other reason than the first two months won't be a complete s*show, the Twins will win more games. Last year, I put them at 74 games. I'm still all aboard the "Hector Santiago is the most overrated, and perhaps might be the worst pitcher in the Twins rotation" train, but I think that costs only about 2-3 games. I will go with an optimistic 72. 

[jimmer]

 

I think insisting that the only change in the roster from last year is Suzuki leaving and Castro arriving doesn't tell the whole story. They are also replacing rookie Buxton with full year of experience Buxton. They have Kepler as a starter for the full season. If for no other reason than the first two months won't be a complete s*show, the Twins will win more games. Last year, I put them at 74 games. I'm still all aboard the "Hector Santiago is the most overrated, and perhaps might be the worst pitcher in the Twins rotation" train, but I think that costs only about 2-3 games. I will go with an optimistic 72. 

All this is reasonable and I agree with many, if not most, of these same points.  Well said.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think insisting that the only change in the roster from last year is Suzuki leaving and Castro arriving doesn't tell the whole story. They are also replacing rookie Buxton with full year of experience Buxton. They have Kepler as a starter for the full season. If for no other reason than the first two months won't be a complete s*show, the Twins will win more games. Last year, I put them at 74 games. I'm still all aboard the "Hector Santiago is the most overrated, and perhaps might be the worst pitcher in the Twins rotation" train, but I think that costs only about 2-3 games. I will go with an optimistic 72. 

 

good points....I hope to never read about sophomore slumps, though, since that would imply Kepler will be worse. OTOH, didn't everyone else's young players get experience last year? Didn't other teams add/delete players? Sometimes I feel like we say "the Twins young player will get better", without acknowledging other teams have young players too......

[Oldgoat_MN]

I’m going to try this OPTIMISM thing…

 

Decent chance Berrios will be much more relaxed after his experience last fall and pitching regularly in ST. He was a highly regarded prospect. Let’s see him take off.
Tyler Duffey was not terrible the whole season or even part of it. He alternated between being very bad and very good. Might he find some consistency? If so, let’s get him to go with the ‘good’ thing.
Santiago and Gibson are both capable pitchers. A good year from both is not beyond possibilities.
Mejia is only 23 years old and pitched well in AAA last year. The only SP in Rochester younger than Mejia last season was Berrios.
Haley has a great work ethic and posted a 1.125 WHIP in AAA last year. We’ll see where it takes him.

 

When asked what MLB team had the best group of young prospects/ players to fill out a strong bullpen a FanGraphs talking head picked the Twins.
Kintzler, Pressley, Shaggy and Rogers all had an FIP less than 4.0. Boshers’ was less than 3.0. Tonkin was badly misused as has been written about here. Perhaps they will start to use him in a way that helps him succeed. If this group performs well then that is where our trade chips come from. Hard to think of our bullpen as a strength, but if they are not overworked it could go that way. Contending teams are frequently looking to strengthen their bullpen at the deadline and in the off-season.

No reason not to be optimistic about Buxton, Sano and Kepler getting better. Maybe Rosario and/or Polanco will occur as true MLB talent. As far as Escobar, I cannot believe he suddenly forgot how to hit AND field. Hopefully he comes back healthy. And Grossman can’t really be as bad in the field as he was last year, can he?

A Mauer/Park/Vargas 1B/DH platoon has the potential to be very effective.

 

OK, I’m exhausted. It felt kind of good, though

[Steve Lein]

My Over/Under is at about 72.5 Wins right now.

 

If everything breaks right, they could be around .500.

 

Don't see them losing 100 again for sure, though.

 

I think this will be a pretty good offense. Improvement into top 2/3's pitching-wise, will go a long way looking at 59 wins in 2016 as the baseline.

[jimmer]

Eddie Rosario didnt forget how to hit. He just hasnt become a good offensive player. He had an unsustainable amount of triples in 2015 that made him look better than he actually was. It was easy to predict that wouldnt continue into 2016 and it didn't. In 2016, he improved on his BA and OBP. His K% got slighlty worse while his walk rate got slightly better. He was basically the same guy without the MLB league leading triples. As far as his fielding goes, well, people stopped running on him so much. They got the memo abput his arm. His mind seemed to wander in regards to fundamentals on defense(and offense,actually). He can bounce back from that and be a quality defender. He was still an average to slightly above average fielding LF.

 

He really is suited to 4th OF. Thats the talent level he has.

[Physics Guy]

 

Eddie Rosario didnt forget how to hit. He just hasnt become a good offensive player. He had an unsustainable amount of triples in 2015 that made him look better than he actually was. It was easy to predict that wouldnt continue into 2016 and it didn't. In 2016, he improved on his BA and OBP. His K% got slighlty worse while his walk rate got slightly better. He was basically the same guy without the MLB league leading triples. As far as his fielding goes, well, people stopped running on him so much. They got the memo abput his arm. His mind seemed to wander in regards to fundamentals on defense(and offense,actually). He can bounce back from that and be a quality defender. He was still an average to slightly above average fielding LF.

He really is suited to 4th OF. Thats the talent level he has.

I'm starting to feel this may be correct, although I want to let him play most of this year (assuming he doesn't regress) to see if he can be a legit starter.  Maybe he is the LH half of a platoon. 

[Physics Guy]

Better for 2017:  Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Escobar, Park, Murphy, Gibson, Santiago, Hughes (low bar), Duffey, May, Berrios

 

Worse:  Dozier (hard to be better), Santana, Kintzler, Grossman

[Thrylos]

Too early to predict wins for next year...

 

That said, I suspect Perkins will be better in 2017 because he will not play at all, instead of single-handedly losing one game   You might as well stick a fork in Perkins

[Halsey Hall]

 

Too early to predict wins for next year...

 

That said, I suspect Perkins will be better in 2017 because he will not play at all, instead of single-handedly losing one game   You might as well stick a fork in Perkins

I have to agree on Perkins, I believe he's done. It would be nice to see him bounce back but I just don't believe it will happen.  He did come out and throw this morning.  Probably around 15 guys working out today, catching passes.  Footballs flying all over the place, they do have fun.

[Dantes929]

 

good points....I hope to never read about sophomore slumps, though, since that would imply Kepler will be worse. OTOH, didn't everyone else's young players get experience last year? Didn't other teams add/delete players? Sometimes I feel like we say "the Twins young player will get better", without acknowledging other teams have young players too......

Its true.   You can look at that list and see that of those that  are predicted to get worse none of them were young guys.   The only young guy that can even possibly have a sophomore slump is Kepler and its not like his year, except for 2 weeks was really all that great.  This is pretty unique and some will read into it that they are simply not talented.     I look at the first 75 games and there were only two guys on the entire roster that met even modest expectations.   One was the utility guy and one was the 4th outfielder.    No team in history would thrive with that performance vs perceived talent ratio.  Again, maybe they are not as talented as they were hyped to be.   Only time will tell that.   If there are other teams out there that were young and performed very poorly almost to a man and they promote the idea that the talent will eventually translate into good performance and wins there is certainly anecdotal evidence of young teams getting better as they mature.  

On a separate note, I will go out on a limb and say that Dozier is not an obvious choice for me to be worse.    If you said that after the all star game in 2015 I'd have endorsed that idea because it looked like he was one dimensional and would be figured out, but I think there is a good chance that he is simply a very good hitter now.    His first 75 games were horrible also and I think there is a reasonable chance of him duplicating his 2016 stats but maybe and preferably without the extreme streakiness..  

[Dantes929]

Is it really so far fetched to imagine May, Gibson, Sano, Buxton, Dozier, Santana and Berrios to have good seasons all at once.    It would have a profound effect on the results.    Notice 4 of those named are starting pitchers (hopefully).

[goulik]

 

Is it really so far fetched to imagine May, Gibson, Sano, Buxton, Dozier, Santana and Berrios to have good seasons all at once.    It would have a profound effect on the results.    Notice 4 of those named are starting pitchers (hopefully).

All four of the pitchers have good seasons? I guess it's possible but that is hoping for a lot. I just hope 3 of them do and we will be a much improved team. In fact if two improve and Santana only regresses a little, we will be a much improved team. 

One could validly say if 4 of your list improve while Santana and Dozier only regress mildly, we could have an enjoyable season.