Article: The Twins Are Going to Win 80 Games in 2017

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Sano is a downgrade at third, that much is certain...

I have to disagree with this. Sano's errors are certainly of the "in-your-face" variety, but Plouffe's weak fielding was much more subtle and easy to miss. He has no range anymore. Fangraphs was not kind to Plouffe last season. Plouffe has better hands than Sano I will give you that, but that's not the whole story.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I appreciate what Thrylos, DocBauer and others are saying, that it is too early to predict the season given that we really don’t know what the roster will look like in April. But here is my question:
Why haven’t we gotten an outfielder?  Or signed a pitcher? I think it is because we are not going to get one.
The OF has nothing to do with Dozier being traded or not.  Palka and Granite are not ready.  We need a 4th OF unless we are going to roll with Grossman, and if that’s true it means we are hoping that there are no injuries in 2016 to our 3 starting OFs because no one (no Twins fan) wants to see much of Grossman in the OF while opponents are potentially hitting the ball somewhere near him.
Had the Twins wanted to shore up the OF or SP one would like to think that they would have used something other than the Terry Ryan approach (when all the good players are taken we can sign someone cheap who is afraid no one is going to hire them).
I believe that the evidence suggests that the Twins are basically standing pat.  Had they wanted to hire an impact player, well, those guys are usually snapped up by this time.
It doesn’t mean we cannot still get someone, but who is left that the Twins can sign and say, “He will make a difference!”?  I believe we are going into this season hoping Grossman’s very bad year in the OF was something of an aberration (plausible) and we are going to watch what these guys from last September can do in 2017.

Barring a Dozier trade, I see little that will make a difference at this point.  Use platoons to help players succeed?  Yeah, we don’t do that.

I think last September’s team can win 70-75 games managed the way they were in 2016.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Good post, but a quibble...I'm reluctant to completely ascribe "sequencing" to luck. I don't think there's much evidence of that. And in fact, in at least my experience in other pursuits, to quote someone relevant, "luck is the residue of design."

 

I'm not a fan of 'luck' in general to explain statistical variation. It is quite possible for variation to be something other than random, especially in smaller samples.

[USAFChief]

Let's say Team A and Team B both get 9 singles in games against other clubs. Team A gets all 9 in one inning and Team B gets one each in 9 innings. No other players reach base. Team A scores 7 runs in that one inning and the game, while Team B scores 0 runs.

 

Did Team A get "lucky?" I'm not sure that there's really an answer to that question. The only relevant question, however, is whether Team A has a repeatable skill to bunch all of their singles in one inning. If not, our prediction for the future should expect a normal distribution of hits.

 

It's really just an extension of the "clutch hitter" issue. There are such things as clutch hits, but no such thing as a clutch hitter, even though random variation allows for some hitters to appear so on the surface.

Certainly luck is a factor. But I doubt it's the only thing causing non-random distribution of events like hits. Certainly not over long time frames, like seasons.

[Thrylos]

 

Why haven’t we gotten an outfielder?  Or signed a pitcher? I think it is because we are not going to get one.
The OF has nothing to do with Dozier being traded or not. 

 

 

Maybe it has all to do with it, if the Twins have been asking the Dodgers for someone like Andrew Toles, in addition to DeLeon.  And that OF better be a RH hitting one with some pop (since Kepler, Grossman, Rosario, and Palka are all Lefties) so Toles would certainly fit the bill.  Also the Twins have been in rumors of RH OF FA bats, like Bautista, and when there is smoke...

[USAFChief]

Maybe it has all to do with it, if the Twins have been asking the Dodgers for someone like Andrew Toles, in addition to DeLeon.  And that OF better be a RH hitting one with some pop (since Kepler, Grossman, Rosario, and Palka are all Lefties) so Toles would certainly fit the bill.  Also the Twins have been in rumors of RH OF FA bats, like Bautista, and when there is smoke...

I'd be all in favor of a RH hitting OFer, but isn't Grossman a SW hitter?

[Mike Sixel]

Good post, but a quibble...I'm reluctant to completely ascribe "sequencing" to luck. I don't think there's much evidence of that. And in fact, in at least my experience in other pursuits, to quote someone relevant, "luck is the residue of design."

Then why does it stop?

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not a fan of 'luck' in general to explain statistical variation. It is quite possible for variation to be something other than random, especially in smaller samples.

And I think much is under appreciated....

[Lonestar]

Maybe it has all to do with it, if the Twins have been asking the Dodgers for someone like Andrew Toles, in addition to DeLeon.  And that OF better be a RH hitting one with some pop (since Kepler, Grossman, Rosario, and Palka are all Lefties) so Toles would certainly fit the bill.  Also the Twins have been in rumors of RH OF FA bats, like Bautista, and when there is smoke...

Except for the part that Toles bats left handed and cant hit LHPs

[drivlikejehu]

 

Certainly luck is a factor. But I doubt it's the only thing causing non-random distribution of events like hits. Certainly not over long time frames, like seasons.

 

Why do you doubt this? To me it seems like the easy and obvious explanation. A great example is how the Twins went from incredibly lucky in 2015 to incredibly unlucky in 2016. The club wasn't identical, but it certainly wasn't different enough to explain going from one extreme to another.

 

On the other hand, if you average 2015 and 2016 together, you come out pretty close to even. One season is actually not an enormous sample size when it comes to runs scored and allowed. Over time, however, and across MLB, it evens out.

 

Keep in mind that BaseRuns is already accounting for factors associated with sequencing, so long as those factors impact actual results on the field. If a pitcher is horrible with runners on base, then allowing a lead-off single has substantial sequential effects for both teams. But that is already being captured by the algorithm and thus is not being treated as 'luck'.

 

 

[Brandon Warne]

 

That 83 win team lost talent between 2015 and 2016 and between 2016 and 2017.  If the Twins still had that 2015 roster, sure, we can talk about flirting with 80 wins.  

 

Who? Glen Perkins comes to mind -- and that's about it. 

[Brandon Warne]

 

I feel like Castro's addition will be a true test to see how much pitch framing makes a difference.  Castro's bat might not be as bad as it looks, either.  

 

He can hit righties. He'll make a potentially nifty platoon with either Murphy or Garver. I wouldn't hate Gimenez getting some run either. He seems to be fairly intelligent, even if he doesn't offer much with the bat. 

[Brandon Warne]

 

I'd be all in favor of a RH hitting OFer, but isn't Grossman a SW hitter?

 

....who throttled lefties last year, while Toles is a LHH. Weird comment. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The Twins had a colossal losing streak near the end of the year. You can freely look at the roster later in the season for an accurate comparison.

 

Well I looked at that 13 game losing streak in August which I think you are talking about, and those starting lineups included Plouffe at 1B (Mauer soreness), Escobar at 3B (Sano elbow), Suzuki and Centeno splitting catching duties about 50/50, and a (un)healthy dose of Grossman and Santana in the outfield. In fact in four of those games, Grossman and Santana both started in the outfield in the same game.

 

So, no, not 'nearly identical' to what we will see Opening Day in 2017.

[Platoon]

IF there are no injuries, and IF like too much of last year, Molitor still spends as much time trying to fit the "Wamdering Albatross" into LF, it's going to negate the only defense advantage this team has. I don't view any of the non OF gloves as above average. Mauer and Dozier are solid, but lord the left side is not good. It would improve immensely with the Dozier trade, Polanco to second, and Vielma at SS. (If his leather is anywhere near as good as advertised) Molitor was quoted on the Caravan he wants Dozoer to stay. Now I know he has to make nice with fans, but if I managed that team, I would want Dozier gone, and decent pitcher sitting in front of his locker.

[wsnydes]

IF there are no injuries, and IF like too much of last year, Molitor still spends as much time trying to fit the "Wamdering Albatross" into LF, it's going to negate the only defense advantage this team has. I don't view any of the non OF gloves as above average. Mauer and Dozier are solid, but lord the left side is not good. It would improve immensely with the Dozier trade, Polanco to second, and Vielma at SS. (If his leather is anywhere near as good as advertised) Molitor was quoted on the Caravan he wants Dozoer to stay. Now I know he has to make nice with fans, but if I managed that team, I would want Dozier gone, and decent pitcher sitting in front of his locker.

I'd want Dozier gone not only to acquire pitching, but to also relieve some roster log jams. Anything that frees up my ability to mix and match as a manager is good news for me. Molitor is a big question mark for me on how I project this team. He's got to improve in about all aspects of game management and lineup construction in my view. He's also why my hopes of the younger players taking off are quelled. Hopefully the staff changes help, but I still see him as a liability. I feel that he lost more games than he won them last season.

[USAFChief]

Why do you doubt this? To me it seems like the easy and obvious explanation. A great example is how the Twins went from incredibly lucky in 2015 to incredibly unlucky in 2016. The club wasn't identical, but it certainly wasn't different enough to explain going from one extreme to another.

 

On the other hand, if you average 2015 and 2016 together, you come out pretty close to even. One season is actually not an enormous sample size when it comes to runs scored and allowed. Over time, however, and across MLB, it evens out.

 

Keep in mind that BaseRuns is already accounting for factors associated with sequencing, so long as those factors impact actual results on the field. If a pitcher is horrible with runners on base, then allowing a lead-off single has substantial sequential effects for both teams. But that is already being captured by the algorithm and thus is not being treated as 'luck'.

As I said, I believe luck is a factor.

 

But I'm not prepared to write it all off as luck. That's not only a lazy explanation for why your model doesn't work, it wouldn't match any other human endeavor involving skill and competition.

 

There are reasons, for example, why Joe Mauer has hit third most of his career and never drove in 100 runs. One reason is luck, but that's not the only one. It's not even the primary one. And a math model isn't going to capture that.

[DocBauer]

Provided there are no disaster injuries, I have a hard time believing it won't be better this season.

 

Better is a long way from good, though.

 

Grossman and Sano were outfield disasters. That, hopefully, will no longer be an issue.

 

Sano is a downgrade at third, that much is certain... But short is still up in the air. If Polanco starts there all season, that's bad for the team defensively (though they were bad at the position last year as well).

 

To me, the wildcard in all this is whether Polanco plays second and whether we see 2014-15 Escobar at short (acceptable) or 2016 Escobar at short (very, very bad).

 

A lot hinges on Dozier and it's not only the pieces returned in trade. Trading Dozier also allows another infield signing on top of the positional adjustments that come with his departure.

And very good post, and I don't mean to quibble, but I'd like to address a couple items here.

 

Grossman and Sano were absolute disasters from what I saw and listened to, though I confess to not actually watching as many games last year as I have previously. Am I being to simple and understated to simply say Grossman HAS to be better? If I recall correctly, someone had some information posted fairly recently that indicated Grossman hadn't actually performed as badly in years past. I still think/hope Grossman can play either corner OCCASSIONALLY at an OK level, but prefer another 4th OF of some sort brought in for more regular duty. Our starting 3 has a chance to be a very good OF defensively.

 

 

Forgive me if I sound optomistic, but I'm not convinced Sano will be a huge downgrade at 3B. While I was a Plouffe fan and respected him a lot, what I have seen from Sano is surprising athleticism from a big man, who charges the ball well, has decent movement, and a gun for an arm. I'm not saying there won't be bad moments, but I believe he has what it takes to stick at 3B and play it solidly with work, and time, and a chance now to concentrate on his primary position. I keep reflecting on Koski when he first came up.

 

I am more worried about SS, though I have some optomism here as well. You yourself point out Escobar was pretty solid there in '14 & '15, and I see no reason why he can't be that way again. And I think all of us have questions and concerns about Polanco there. But, he was signed and developed initially AS a SS. Despite moving around and playing other positions, mostly 2B, last year was the first year he DIDN'T play SS in the minors. And then he was brought up and basically inserted as the primary SS. That has to mess with a young rookie doesn't it? With some real ML experience under his belt now, past experience, able to concentrate at least a bit more on the position, (assuming he doesn't become the utility guy), shouldn't we expect some improvement? Not saying it's his best or permanent position, but I think we should expect at least some improvement and better consistency?

 

Again, maybe I'm being overly optomistic. But I can't help but think players actually playing their normal positions can't help but improve the defense overall. No question the left side of the infield is the biggest worry. But Sano in a little better shape, as has been reported, and allowed to focus on 3B, a healthy Escobar, and Polanco being ALLOWED to play SS has to afford a bit of optomistic improvement does it not?

[Brandon Warne]

 

IF there are no injuries, and IF like too much of last year, Molitor still spends as much time trying to fit the "Wamdering Albatross" into LF, it's going to negate the only defense advantage this team has. I don't view any of the non OF gloves as above average. Mauer and Dozier are solid, but lord the left side is not good. It would improve immensely with the Dozier trade, Polanco to second, and Vielma at SS. (If his leather is anywhere near as good as advertised) Molitor was quoted on the Caravan he wants Dozoer to stay. Now I know he has to make nice with fans, but if I managed that team, I would want Dozier gone, and decent pitcher sitting in front of his locker.

 

Vielma is like Pedro Florimon 2.o. I just don't see him as a future starter. 

[Brandon Warne]

 

And very good post, and I don't mean to quibble, but I'd like to address a couple items here.

Grossman and Sano were absolute disasters from what I saw and listened to, though I confess to not actually watching as many games last year as I have previously. Am I being to simple and understated to simply say Grossman HAS to be better? If I recall correctly, someone had some information posted fairly recently that indicated Grossman hadn't actually performed as badly in years past. I still think/hope Grossman can play either corner OCCASSIONALLY at an OK level, but prefer another 4th OF of some sort brought in for more regular duty. Our starting 3 has a chance to be a very good OF defensively.


Forgive me if I sound optomistic, but I'm not convinced Sano will be a huge downgrade at 3B. While I was a Plouffe fan and respected him a lot, what I have seen from Sano is surprising athleticism from a big man, who charges the ball well, has decent movement, and a gun for an arm. I'm not saying there won't be bad moments, but I believe he has what it takes to stick at 3B and play it solidly with work, and time, and a chance now to concentrate on his primary position. I keep reflecting on Koski when he first came up.

I am more worried about SS, though I have some optomism here as well. You yourself point out Escobar was pretty solid there in '14 & '15, and I see no reason why he can't be that way again. And I think all of us have questions and concerns about Polanco there. But, he was signed and developed initially AS a SS. Despite moving around and playing other positions, mostly 2B, last year was the first year he DIDN'T play SS in the minors. And then he was brought up and basically inserted as the primary SS. That has to mess with a young rookie doesn't it? With some real ML experience under his belt now, past experience, able to concentrate at least a bit more on the position, (assuming he doesn't become the utility guy), shouldn't we expect some improvement? Not saying it's his best or permanent position, but I think we should expect at least some improvement and better consistency?

Again, maybe I'm being overly optomistic. But I can't help but think players actually playing their normal positions can't help but improve the defense overall. No question the left side of the infield is the biggest worry. But Sano in a little better shape, as has been reported, and allowed to focus on 3B, a healthy Escobar, and Polanco being ALLOWED to play SS has to afford a bit of optomistic improvement does it not?

 

Good post. I'm convinced Sano's issues at third are focus and reps based, not physical issues. That's why I think he can overcome them. 

[USAFChief]

In any case, back to the topic. If the every day roster--minus the pitching--on this team isn't an above .500 unit, there are bigger problems. I think the pitching will be somewhat better, below average but better. So I expect the everyday lineup to be enough to get them close to .500. I agree with the OP.

[DocBauer]

I appreciate what Thrylos, DocBauer and others are saying, that it is too early to predict the season given that we really don’t know what the roster will look like in April. But here is my question:

Why haven’t we gotten an outfielder?  Or signed a pitcher? I think it is because we are not going to get one.

The OF has nothing to do with Dozier being traded or not.  Palka and Granite are not ready.  We need a 4th OF unless we are going to roll with Grossman, and if that’s true it means we are hoping that there are no injuries in 2016 to our 3 starting OFs because no one (no Twins fan) wants to see much of Grossman in the OF while opponents are potentially hitting the ball somewhere near him.

Had the Twins wanted to shore up the OF or SP one would like to think that they would have used something other than the Terry Ryan approach (when all the good players are taken we can sign someone cheap who is afraid no one is going to hire them).

I believe that the evidence suggests that the Twins are basically standing pat.  Had they wanted to hire an impact player, well, those guys are usually snapped up by this time.

It doesn’t mean we cannot still get someone, but who is left that the Twins can sign and say, “He will make a difference!”?  I believe we are going into this season hoping Grossman’s very bad year in the OF was something of an aberration (plausible) and we are going to watch what these guys from last September can do in 2017.

 

Barring a Dozier trade, I see little that will make a difference at this point.  Use platoons to help players succeed?  Yeah, we don’t do that.

 

I think last September’s team can win 70-75 games managed the way they were in 2016.

I see your points. But I would argue, somewhat based on recent comments made by the FO, that further additions were being held up, to some degree, until the Dozier situation was settled. His trade might have lead to Santana, possibly Santiago, being traded, etc. Also, I think this new team is being a bit prudent at the moment, not wanting to jump the gun, and recognizing that after the big signings, and a trade or no trade scenario, there would still be some value players to look at before ST begins. I believe now, barring a surprise, that both Dozier and Santana will be coming to camp, and they will now be looking at a couple of guys out there to augment the 2017 roster that will not only cost less, but could be valuable flip options if things break right.

[DocBauer]

This says nothing about injuries.  80 wins requires a 21 game improvement.  

 

And I don't think the pitching just gets better by accident.  A great deal of our struggles are baked in with bad defense and a pitching staff that can't strike people out.  

 

21 games.  I think people are losing sight of just how enormous that is.

Not going to argue with you Levi, or debate. Your points are sound. But I am going to offer a different perspective from the outside looking in.

 

I believe each individual season has it's own story and merit. I think each season offers legitimate information, perspective and speculation. But again, each season is unique unto it's own. If we follow some of the various statinduced speculation on the past two Twins seasons, we would say they weren't as good in 2015 as they turned out, nor as bad as they showed in 2016. They were probably somewhere in between. But again, each season should be taken wholly unto itself.

 

The 2017 Twins could easily lose 90 games again. And yet, improvement by young players, better roster balance and management, (simply playing guys where they should be for starters), and better team health are all factors.

 

So while we state the team needs to be 21 games better to reach a certain mark, it IS a new and different season. We DO begin 2017 with a 0-0 record, and nothing carries over from either the 2015 or 2016 season. And while the 2017 roster has carryover, it is different here and there, young players have a chance to improve, and better health is certainly a recipe for greater opportunity for success. So I'm not sure saying THIS TEAM needs to improve by 21 games is entirely accurate when it's a brand new season.

 

But then again, I could be bored and rambling for the sake of rambling and just anxiously awaiting the begining of spring training! Lol

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

...

But then again, I could be bored and rambling for the sake of rambling and just anxiously awaiting the beginning of spring training! Lol

 

There are a lot of us right there with you, brother.

[TheLeviathan]

It's a good perspective Doc! Last year I didn't want to predict a win total because young teams are so hard to predict. The window of what might be is really wide. I think this year is the same, but I'd feel much better about it if the Dozier deal helped us better situate our roster.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

It's really warm in Minnesota this week, the snow is melting, it feels like spring, and I am also on board the Twins happy train

[ashbury]

Vielma is like Pedro Florimon 2.o. I just don't see him as a future starter. 

I really want to pay attention to Vielma in Spring Training. I share your memory of the Florimonster - I have flashbacks of him sticking that bat out and hoping to dump the pitch into short right field. It would be nice to find out that Vielma has more going on than that.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

It seems like you might be playing fast and loose with what "close" means then. Is 84 wins close enough to 89? How about 86 like the Tigers? If you think this team "should" be an 81 win team, those outcomes should be well within your expectations.

 

And if you think they "should" be an 81 win team, perhaps they should be worried about the left side of their infield. I agree, if they are some 70-75 win team, no worries. But you're arguing a more aggressive stance than that, one I would argue should care about that side of the infield.

When I read "Should be an 80 win team" and think the meaning is, reasonable expectation to win 80 plus or minus 5-6.

 

Without improvement to the rotation, bullpen or SS fielding, 80 is an unreasonable expectation.

 

As Jimmer pointed out, so is 59.

 

I think 72 is reasonable give or take 5-6 given what I assume how the roster will be constructed for opening day and what kinds of roster moves will happen in the first half of the season.

 

So they could have an upside close to 80 if things break right, but it should not be assumed.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think 72 is reasonable give or take 5-6 given what I assume how the roster will be constructed for opening day and what kinds of roster moves will happen in the first half of the season.

Unless the Twins repeat their terrible luck of 2016, I'd consider 72 wins a bit of a failure.

 

With the promotions of Buxton, Kepler, and Berrios, the Twins need to beat their 2016 BaseRuns win total of 71 by at least 3-4 games.

 

I believe 75 wins is a reasonable expectation for a team with this much under-25 talent playing their second or third seasons in MLB.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

As I said, I believe luck is a factor.

But I'm not prepared to write it all off as luck. That's not only a lazy explanation for why your model doesn't work, it wouldn't match any other human endeavor involving skill and competition.

There are reasons, for example, why Joe Mauer has hit third most of his career and never drove in 100 runs. One reason is luck, but that's not the only one. It's not even the primary one. And a math model isn't going to capture that.

 

Yeah, I think play second bat second had a lot to do with that.  There plenty of low OBP guys batting in front him most of his career.  Kind of hard to get RBIs when you don't have guys on base in front of you.