DaveW: Dodgers trade for Dozier to be completed within the next 24 hours

[DaveW]

On today's Fangraphs chat:

 

12:14

Chris: Wondering what you think of a Dozier trade to the Dodgers. I’ve heard rumors of DeLeon, Alvarez and one or two lesser pieces. Better for Twins or Dodgers?

 

12:14

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t give up that much.

Cameron has zero credibility when talking about what prospects should be traded for a major leaguer.

[mazeville]

 

On today's Fangraphs chat: 

12:14

Chris: Wondering what you think of a Dozier trade to the Dodgers. I’ve heard rumors of DeLeon, Alvarez and one or two lesser pieces. Better for Twins or Dodgers?

 

12:14
Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t give up that much.

 

Prospect guys love their prospects. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Cameron has zero credibility when talking about what prospects should be traded for a major leaguer.

 

I'd think "zero credibility" is a bit harsh. But yeah, he doesn't have a hand in this game, so it is just his opinion.

[Mike Sixel]

Heaven forbid we bring in opinions, sorry, won't happen again. Wow. 

 

Cameron is right about a lot of stuff (and wrong too, but that happens when your job is to offer opinions every single day).

[GP830]

I'm still amazed that there are no real updates. Still just rumblings. Is the new regime seriously this tight-lipped???

[DaveW]

Heaven forbid we bring in opinions, sorry, won't happen again. Wow.

 

Cameron is right about a lot of stuff (and wrong too, but that happens when your job is to offer opinions every single day).

Cameron is way to much of a homer for me to take his non mariners related prospect trade takes seriously.

 

Thats just my personal view.

[DaveW]

I'm still amazed that there are no real updates. Still just rumblings. Is the new regime seriously this tight-lipped???

dodgers and Twins FO are both pretty tight lipped.

 

Just look at the Becky/Agon/Crawford trade, and the Jensen re signing.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

First of all thanks for your insight with this. I'd guess the Twins have no interest in Puig for other reasons. Forgetting the outs every game or inning. The long, majestic, high-arcing 400-foot base hits. Bat flips after drawing a walk. Those are the things that make Puig a non-starter here. The "Minnesota Nice" is in the Twins DNA to some extent. And if people don't know about the 2nd base sac bunt snafu, they owe it to themselves to look it up. Imagine if Rosario or Sano had done something like that.

Puig is much more of a knucklehead than a bad guy.  He's great with the fans and kids at spring training. Most guys pimp their HR's these days, but unfortunately, Puig isn't always right about when he's hit one.  I may have been wrong earlier when I said he scored from 1st on a single in the gap during the game he botched the SAC bunt.  It may have been directly after his 400 ft single that got him benched.  You reminded me of that.  It happened once last year and unlike when Cespedes does it, Puig was held accountable and he took responsibility.  The not knowing the outs thing is false.  Really those were the only two incidents on the field last year, but he is a lightning rod for media attention.  He gets lambasted for things sometimes that others get a free pass on.

 

His biggest detriment is probably learning how to handle failure.  Until last season he would get defensive rather than accept coaching or put so much pressure on himself that he can't handle big spots.  At this point in his career he isn't a guy you want to bat 3-5.  Not really a two out guys with runners in scoring position hitter.  Honestly, he tries to hard and gets really down on himself when he fails.  He's performed his best hitting either 1st, 2nd, or further down like 6th, or 7th.

 

After he returned from the minors he seemed much more relaxed and under control emotionally.  I wonder if Toles shared some anxiety meds with him.   The first month of the season when the Dodgers weren't hitting yet, Puig's play in RF was worth the price of admission night in and night out even though he wasn't hitting.  He has improved fundamentally.  People have to remember than not only did he not get much time in the minors, he didn't play that much ball in Cuba either.  He will never be a stellar base runner, but if you watch a big guy like him run in person it is amazing how fast he is and he will make hustle plays on the bases as well as knuckehead plays. Honestly, I don't want the Dodgers to trade him.  If he doesn't click under Dave Roberts I don't think he's going to anywhere else either.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Not in the post I was quoting you didn't. What does labrum surgery have to do with not being able to dig deeper than superficial batting averages? Maybe bro never made it back into the lexicon of Dodger fans in Iowa 6-8 years ago like it did with everybody else under the age 30. 

Oh it made it.  People just realized that Bro and Bra made people sound like tools or dbag frat boys.  If you had read one of the next posts I talked about .OBP and .OPS.  That's okay though.  I know some are just looking for conflict rather than discussion.

[mazeville]

 

His biggest detriment is probably learning how to handle failure.  

 

Well, he'd get plenty of practice on how to handle failure if he were traded to the Twins ...

[nicksaviking]

 

Dave Cameron isn't in the Twins or Dodgers front offices, but he certainly knows a lot about prospects. He was simply giving an opinion on what the value of Dozier is in a trade. That doesn't necessarily mean it is what the Dodgers or Twins would or would not do, but I can absolutely see his point.

 

Oh I tend to agree with his assessment of Dozier's worth. I'll just be disappointed if the Twins don't get more than his worth considering every other trade these days seems to be an overpay by the buyer.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Possible leverage play on the part of the Dodgers. Kinsler owed $23M over 2 years. You would expect his agent would ask for an additional 3-4 years. I would be more worried about Tampa putting Logan Forsythe out there.

The second year is an option year.  It could also be guaranteed by the Dodgers too.  There's usually wiggle room.  The real issue is Detroit hasn't decided whether they are in or out.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Stewart struggled a bit in 2015, but you're right, in 2016 he had a meteoric rise from A ball to the "bigs".

 

Wouldn't mind a package of JDL, Stewart and outfielder Trayce Thompson. 

Thompson would give the Twins a RH bat to balance out the lefties in Kepler and Rosario.

 

Not sure the Twins need a 2B/DH type like Calhoun.  And Alvarez is probably just wishful thinking.

I was going to mention Thompson.  He was playing really well last year until he fractured his back in two spots.  He hid it from the team and his numbers took a nose dive.  Once the pain got too bad he admitted to the team what was going on and they found the fractures. Apparently, he's healthy now but hasn't done any baseball activities yet as a precaution.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That .280 figure is actually Dozier's career high BABIP to date.  I don't think it's correct to assume he will improve on it simply because it is lower than league average.  He profiles as a lower BABIP type hitter.  (Not saying he can't be a valuable hitter in the future, just that you can't really count on increased positive value from this aspect of his game.)

Yep. I was hoping Dozier's BABIP would climb from his earlier .260-ish years but I'm not sure it can go much higher than .280 given his profile. Lots of flyballs, lots of home runs. That's going to lead to a low BABIP.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Cameron has zero credibility when talking about what prospects should be traded for a major leaguer.

Cameron did nail the Chris Sale return perfectly.

[DaveW]

Cameron did nail the Chris Sale return perfectly.

No kidding? Didn't know that

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I agree with you. This whole argument I was having earlier with another poster is the result of him attacking me for using "buzz words" and not having proof that a deal was not likely happening any time soon. This of course was in response to the prolonged absence of any substantiated rumors from confirmed or unconfirmed sources after it was initially leaked last weak that a deal was "imminent in the next 24 hours."

 

Remember too that there were no updates on mlbtraderumors at the time confirming or denying ongoing negotiations or progression of talks between both clubs. Everything was conjecture based on one mans word from a source which he could not disclose for obvious reasons.

 

Apparently this poster took offense to my skepticisms of the deal and went on a tirade in which he stated he was "using my post to make an example of me" for others to see. This post was subsequently deleted.

 

All of this took place before info was posted today from Aaron Gleeman, John Morosi and a few others. So yeah, the original 24 hour timeline didn't hold up from last week but that doesn't mean it's not going to happen (something i NEVER said).

 

I find it disturbing that so many folks here feel they have to post snotty snide responses to people they don't agree with (i'm not accusing you of this).

So Depressing.

i saw 24 hours as arbitrary.

 

I love the Twins, but I think we're taking all of this a bit too seriously and personally. It's sports and a lot of fun.

 

I don't mean to gang up on you or anyone. I don't want to make anyone feel bad. I just want to feed our imaginations and have fun with solving the mystery of sorting out the rumors based on truth from the rumors trying to throw us off.

[darin617]

 

Cameron did nail the Chris Sale return perfectly.

 

Did he really nail it or was he given the trade? No offense, but I don't buy into it for a minute. All it takes is a good relationship with a side of the party. One hand washes the other.

[jud6312]

 

Twins fans are saying Dozier for De Leon, Alverez, plus a lower level prospect or 2.
Dodgers fans are saying De Leon, Stewart, Calhoun.

I am in the group that very much believes a deal between these 2 teams get done. It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out. Seems like the fan bases are pretty far apart. It's looking like 1 fan base might end up a little disappointed.

Shout out to Dave W for starting this thread and giving us all a place to vent our offseason trade rumor anxiety!

A Dodgers fan on the MLBTR Facebook page suggested Stewart, Oaks and Stripling would be a more than adequate package for Dozier. I found it amusing.

[jud6312]

 

Doogie is a very reliable source too

But it's the LIONS

[Mike Sixel]

Did he really nail it or was he given the trade? No offense, but I don't buy into it for a minute. All it takes is a good relationship with a side of the party. One hand washes the other.

Did you look? Because he predicted it months in advance. But, hey, we should just judge everyone with cynicism....

[jimmer]

From Cameron's chat today:

 

Chris: Wondering what you think of a Dozier trade to the Dodgers. I’ve heard rumors of DeLeon, Alvarez and one or two lesser pieces. Better for Twins or Dodgers?
 

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t give up that much.

[twins_89]

From MLBTradeRumors Chat today.

 

Question: Whats it going to take to get Brian Dozier?

 

Jason Martinez: Jose De Leon and another top prospect. Don't think the Dodgers would give up De Leon and Bellinger. And I'm not sure if the Twins would take any less than those 2. Could be the hold up.

[HawkeyeDodger]

Here are two different rumors that I heard today.  One is that the Twins prefer Buehler to JDL.  The second one was a little harder to believe from the Twins standpoint.  The Dodgers would include two higher prospects if the Twins take McCarthy off their hands.

[70charger]

Here are two different rumors that I heard today. One is that the Twins prefer Buehler to JDL. The second one was a little harder to believe from the Twins standpoint. The Dodgers would include two higher prospects if the Twins take McCarthy off their hands.

I wonder about the first one. A guy who's basically never thrown a pro pitch?

 

The second one is more interesting to me. That's basically a $24 million salary dump for the Dodgers, or more than Dozier is set to be paid for the rest of his contract. Obviously it hinges on which "higher prospects." Are we putting Urias back on the table?

[gSutter]

Here are two different rumors that I heard today.  One is that the Twins prefer Buehler to JDL.  The second one was a little harder to believe from the Twins standpoint.  The Dodgers would include two higher prospects if the Twins take McCarthy off their hands.

I've been wondering if that might be something the Twins/Dodgers might be considering. I know both McCarthy and Kazmir have bigger contracts, that might help the Dodgers debt situation if they can get some money off their books.

From my perspective as a Twins fan I would be fine with it, whatever gets us the best haul.

[TheLeviathan]

I'd take McCarthy. If it sweetened the pot.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

I wonder about the first one. A guy who's basically never thrown a pro pitch?

The second one is more interesting to me. That's basically a $24 million salary dump for the Dodgers, or more than Dozier is set to be paid for the rest of his contract. Obviously it hinges on which "higher prospects." Are we putting Urias back on the table?

I think the Dodgers paid $28m of his $48 million in the first two years.   And from the Dodgers perspective it seems like they would just eat the money before they gave up two of their highest rated prospects.  So, if neither of us like it, who knows it may have some legs.  Mccarthy was going to Milwaukee last year in the Puig deal when they ran out of time.  Considering the money that has gone out for bad pitchers this fall, I would think the Dodgers could move him now that he's two years out for his TJ.

 

As for the other rumor, most think Buehler will be the fastest rising guy in their system.  The three guys who most who put on their untouchables list are Bellinger, Alvarez, and Buehler. Buehler was throwing 97 mph last fall. 

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

I've been wondering if that might be something the Twins/Dodgers might be considering. I know both McCarthy and Kazmir have bigger contracts, that might help the Dodgers debt situation if they can get some money off their books.
From my perspective as a Twins fan I would be fine with it, whatever gets us the best haul.

Kazmir is owed $32 million and McCarthy $20 million over the next two year.  Both Kazmir and the Dodgers would prefer a divorce.  Kamir has a chronic issue in his neck that would make him unattactive to me if I was a GM.

[twins_89]

 

Here are two different rumors that I heard today.  One is that the Twins prefer Buehler to JDL.  The second one was a little harder to believe from the Twins standpoint.  The Dodgers would include two higher prospects if the Twins take McCarthy off their hands.

 

I'm not saying that it doesn't make some sense, but it is just bizarre to me that the Dodgers might look to salary dump a player to the Twins.