My Offseason Blueprint

[Brandon Warne]

Spent the early afternoon writing mine up today:

 

http://coldomaha.com/2016/twins/devising-a-2016-twins-offseason-blueprint/

 

Let me know what you think.

 

As a teaser: I have the Twins adding two former Astros, a former very good reliever and not doing much on the relief market.

 

Thoughts?

[Cory Engelhardt]

-I LOVE the Castro move, and I am really coming around to your idea on Gomez. He would help the younger outfielders, and he is a solid to above average player still at this point.

-I can almost see your argument with Plouffe sticking around. I don't love it, but if he is healthy he certainly could be traded for a player with a pulse in June, rather than simply cut this offseason.

-I love that you don't have Danny Santana on your bench.

-I don't like that Dozier isn't traded. I think this is absolutely the height of his value, and I see it as being careless if the Twins don't trade him. I'd even be fine if they traded him for 3 prospects, none of whom would make the majors in 2017. He isn't going to be more valuable the further along his contract goes.

-I'd also look into trading Ervin. May as well capitalize in his value too. Hard to really know with certainty that he will be as good as he was this year. Getting older is tough on pitchers.

-If Escobar is healthy and can play a competent shortstop, I'd be ok with this. That said, if he isn't healthy, I'd look for a good defensive upgrade if possible.

 

A while back you said that Derek Falvey's youtube channel had video of Taijuan Walker (among others.) What would it take to acquire someone like him?

[Brandon Warne]

A lot. Walker took some steps forward last year, but is very, very young. I just don't see a way they deal him.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Boo... we deal Dozier

 

Nice write up. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

A lot. Walker took some steps forward last year, but is very, very young. I just don't see a way they deal him.

 

How about a Santana/Gonsalves deal? Or something similar? Or should I let that dream (of Walker on the Twins) die?

[BK432]

You know I love your stuff, Brandon, but here are my disagreements:

 

- Danny Santana should not be an almost-bench guy. He should flat out be DFA'd. Maybe you're not incorporating any DFAs into your projection but I will be disappointed if he is kept on the 40-man.

 

- If Carlos Gomez can be had on a one year deal, then I could talk myself into it. I have my doubts that he can't get a 2nd year somewhere. I personally think he's about done, but on a one-year deal it could be worth a shot.

 

- Tendering Plouffe. I personally don't believe he will produce to a point where he will be worth any more than a team's 20-25 prospect in a trade. That being said, I don't want him around taking ABs away from others. We are thin at 3B but for 2017, I want to move on.

 

The rest? I love. Castro I'm basically penciling into my lineup right now. He should be worth more to the Twins than any other team. Nice job!

[Brandon Warne]

That I don't have Santana there suggests I think he'll be DFA'd, but if he's the 25th man I'm not going to be too tore up about it. He just has positional flexibility and some speed. If he could give you a .700 OPS or thereabouts, he'd have a little value. 

 

I have no problem with the other points. I think Gomez takes one year to rebuild value because they payoff is much higher after year one than year two. 

 

Even if Plouffe doesn't produce enough to have that value in a trade, I think he has value hitting lefties for the Twins. That's a good platoon partner for Mauer at first, and in a lineup that can be a little lefty soft with guys like Kepler in it. IDK.....Vargas mauled lefties last year too. It'd take some creativity but I still think I'd go that route.

[Kwak]

I disagree with tendering Plouffe. There is no need to try to justify his career with the Twins. I most definitely wouldn't offer him as much as Dozier. Non-tender Plouffe, wait 24 hours, then offer him $3MM if the plan to keep him as a regular. I believe that $3MM is his market value. Personally, I wouldn't offer him at all--and would just plug-in Sano at 3B. The Twins are rebuilding, not contending. Force Sano to show that he belongs in the field and take whatever lumps happen.

 

Castro is interesting, but I have no reason why he is signing with the Twins. We should also expect a lower payroll in '17 and there isn't much available for any free agents.

[wavedog]

Hey, Brandon!  very nice write-up that  follows most of what I was thinking.   Totally onboard with getting Castro.  I also think we need to sign a veteran Right-hand hitting outfielder that can play multiple spots to platoon with Rosario and spell Buxton and Kepler from time-to-time  - so Gomez would fit that bill.  I might try to find someone cheaper.  Would love to acquire a Coco Crisp or Rajai Davis type.   2 areas where I might differ - I would prefer to let Plouffe go and replace him with Polanco.  So 3B could be manned by a combination of Sano, Polanco and Escobar with SS split between Polanco and Escobar.  2nd area of concern is the bullpen - would like to get another proven veteran or two.   Also since Hughes may not start the year, I am worried about the rotation.  I would agree with you that we dangle Dozier and Santana and bite on a good deal for us but I don't think we will get that good deal we are looking for.  

[jimmer]

Last year Plouffe dealt with some injuries and had a bad year, but in 2014, he was worth around 26M and in 2015 about 20M.  Unless we believe his dropoff is permanent, he's certainly worth more than 4M.

 

I am in no way saying that means we should keep him (nor am I saying we should let him go), but I'm not sure a team it going to let a player go due to poor production in a season where he missed half the games due to injury.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

What could be bought by not tendering Plouffe AND Santiago? That'd be my choice.

[Brandon Warne]

 

What could be bought by not tendering Plouffe AND Santiago? That'd be my choice.

 

Not much, considering it's one year and a very poor free-agent market.

[Willihammer]

 

Last year Plouffe dealt with some injuries and had a bad year, but in 2014, he was worth around 26M and in 2015 about 20M.  Unless we believe his dropoff is permanent, he's certainly worth more than 4M.

 

I am in no way saying that means we should keep him (nor am I saying we should let him go), but I'm not sure a team it going to let a player go due to poor production in a season where he missed half the games due to injury.

I'm with you, except in Plouffe's case the injuries were weird recurring intercostal / obliques, and he sustained them doing normal baseball activities like swinging the bat. You have to assume he'll be refreshed after an entire winter off but if/when they hit again, I hope they have a competent plan B.

[TheLeviathan]

So, basically, we keep a 103 loss team around and add Castro?

 

Um...no thank.  No offense, but I hope to god our offseason looks nothing like this.

[DocBauer]

Brandon, as usual, a great piece and well thought out. Very smart and I agree with most of your assessment. I can't really argue, but still will a bit. lol

 

Castro has been mentioned a lot here at TD. I like his signing a lot. But I'm still conflicted by adding a veteran catcher...despite recognizing the potential impact...versus looking harder at Garver, who I like a lot, and Murphy along with maybe another AAAA signing like Hicks last season. My problem is, does Castro help long term vs growing with another young catcher?

 

I'm on board with Gomez, but I think there are other options like Davis, who I also like, that may be cheaper and more content with a possible regular playing time 4th OF role. Still young, very talented, I'm not ready to give up on Rosario as a starter after only 700+ ML AB'S.

 

I have changed my mind on Plouffe, though I am open to other options to replace him. I now believe he would be a smart addition for 2017. He is not only a nice insurance policy for Sano, though I don't know we really need one, but a solid bounce back candidate who can play 1B and DH and be a possible fill in here and there. My problem with Plouffe is I don't think he's worth the salary reported at this point, and I worry about Molitor feeling he has to play him daily. But I like the general idea of him, or a somewhat similar sign, to deepen options and the bench.

 

I still believe Dozier is gone for a SP. Even though I hate to lose him, I still think it's in the Twins best interest to make the move, assuming the right match is there, and move Polanco to 2B. From there, the Twins still need a solution at SS, or at least, someone to compete with Escobar.

 

Despite a plethora of RP options to work with and audition, I still like a strong signing here, letting Kintzler go, and then rolling through and auditioning the Twins many options available to build the best bullpen they can for tomorrow.

 

Nice post!

[Mr. Brooks]

That I don't have Santana there suggests I think he'll be DFA'd, but if he's the 25th man I'm not going to be too tore up about it. He just has positional flexibility and some speed. If he could give you a .700 OPS or thereabouts, he'd have a little value.

 

I have no problem with the other points. I think Gomez takes one year to rebuild value because they payoff is much higher after year one than year two.

 

Even if Plouffe doesn't produce enough to have that value in a trade, I think he has value hitting lefties for the Twins. That's a good platoon partner for Mauer at first, and in a lineup that can be a little lefty soft with guys like Kepler in it. IDK.....Vargas mauled lefties last year too. It'd take some creativity but I still think I'd go that route.

There is no such thing as a 25th man. He's either on the team or he's not. If he's on the team there is a risk he could see 300 AB's, you just never know.

[Brandon Warne]

 

So, basically, we keep a 103 loss team around and add Castro?

 

Um...no thank.  No offense, but I hope to god our offseason looks nothing like this.

 

Feel free to come up with your own. 

[jorgenswest]

Well thought out and reasonable plan. No long term commitments/burdens beyond the necessary addition of Castro leaves flexibility for the future.

[TheLeviathan]

Feel free to come up with your own.

 

I sort of have.

 

1) Trade Dozier, Santana, and (if anyone will have them) Plouffe and Santiago.

 

That's the priority. What you can acquire there makes your decisions the rest of the offseason other than investing in someone like Holland, Feliz, or Storen. Any plan that wants to retain most, let alone all, of those players is a huge mistake IMO.

[The Wise One]

Off season blueprint.  Fires in the fireplace. Some snow shoeing. A trip to thaw out in February. Probably have to dig out a few times. Wait for Revival to open in Saint Paul so maybe there will not be an hour or more wait.  Not watching the Gophers if they play in the Toilet Bowl that is the  Music City Bowl  or their equivalent.  Beyond that, it really takes a lot of time when you work for a living. Hey, thanks for asking what the blueprint for my off season would be.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Not much, considering it's one year and a very poor free-agent market.

 

While I think this accurate about Plouffe, given the pitching options, Santiago might get something (won't be much).  I'd definitely float him to see interest. He has that durable thing going for him (I think), he's just not that good. I certainly wouldn't want him in the rotation next season.

[Brandon Warne]

 

While I think this accurate about Plouffe, given the pitching options, Santiago might get something (won't be much).  I'd definitely float him to see interest. He has that durable thing going for him (I think), he's just not that good. I certainly wouldn't want him in the rotation next season.

 

Why? His career ERA is 3.84 and before this last season was 3.58. He's not a conventional pitcher, but four years and over 500 innings say he's pretty good. 

[Brandon Warne]

 

I sort of have.

1) Trade Dozier, Santana, and (if anyone will have them) Plouffe and Santiago.

That's the priority. What you can acquire there makes your decisions the rest of the offseason other than investing in someone like Holland, Feliz, or Storen. Any plan that wants to retain most, let alone all, of those players is a huge mistake IMO.

 

What do you need Holland, Feliz or Storen for if you're punting 2017 like you suggest in the first part? 

[TheLeviathan]

What do you need Holland, Feliz or Storen for if you're punting 2017 like you suggest in the first part?

 

You hand one of them the closers role, hope they run with it, and trade them in July.

 

Rebuilding teams should look to add upside where they have available roles.

 

Why double down on a 103 loss team?

[Brandon Warne]

 

You hand one of them the closers role, hope they run with it, and trade them in July.

Rebuilding teams should look to add upside where they have available roles.

Why double down on a 103 loss team?

 

Because a year before that it was an 83-win team with almost all the same players? 

[Brandon Warne]

And besides, it's not "doubling down" on anything. It's being realistic with what the team has and what moves actually make sense. 

[jimmer]

Makes no sense to try and acquire other players who might be good enough to switch out at the deadline so we can get more prospects. The plan is to wait until our powerhouse farm system, along with the top 5 draft picks we're going to be getting for the foreseeable future, to makes us contenders.

 

Tick tock, tick tock, tick tock.

 

 

[dgwills]

 I do agree that we shouldn't spend a lot in free agency. Short contracts are fine, but players are going to be overpaid this year and the Twins are not 1 or 2 players away from contending. I'd cut the cord on Plouffe. Grossman is a better hitter and we have a couple guys who could play 3rd if Sano can't hack it. Keeping Grossman as a 4th outfielder/ DH candidate also makes acquiring Gomez unnecessary. Gomez isn't going to be on the next contending Twin's team and I can't remember the last time we got a bounce back candidate and flipped them for assets that really mattered. It's really just wasting at bats.

If I was GM my priority would be trying to have a contending team in 2018. Clearing payroll and trading players that will not be on the next contending team should be job #1. 110+ million for a losing team is a pretty bad situation.

[TheLeviathan]

And besides, it's not "doubling down" on anything. It's being realistic with what the team has and what moves actually make sense.

 

Being realistic about what the team has shouldn't lead to the conclusion of keeping Santana, Dozier, and Plouffe. I don't know how you reach the conclusion we are a catcher away from building off an 83 win team two years in the past.

 

Like I said, I hope the team's new leadership sees it nothing like you did.

[Thrylos]

A 99+96+96+hickup+103 loss team does not need band aids or veterans.

It needs rebuilding.  If Santana and Dozier and Plouffe etc and the likes of Kintzler and Boshers etc are with the Twins in 2017, the new FO would have failed in their first off-season.

 

Your blueprint will get what?  10 more wins than 2016?  Also committing a 23 year old to a DH sentence is too much.  Sano should get the opportunity to spend a full season at third base, and then be criticized.  As a matter of fact his early defensive numbers at 3B were better than the equivalent of both Plouffe and Koskie.

 

They got to rebuild and they got to trade for young MLB-ready talent