My Offseason Blueprint

[Brandon Warne]

 

Also committing a 23 year old to a DH sentence is too much. 

 

The blueprint was very clear this was not the case. Maybe re-read it. 

[Brandon Warne]

 

A 99+96+96+hickup+103 loss team does not need band aids or veterans.

It needs rebuilding.  If Santana and Dozier and Plouffe etc and the likes of Kintzler and Boshers etc are with the Twins in 2017, the new FO would have failed in their first off-season.

 

Your blueprint will get what?  10 more wins than 2016?  Also committing a 23 year old to a DH sentence is too much.  Sano should get the opportunity to spend a full season at third base, and then be criticized.  As a matter of fact his early defensive numbers at 3B were better than the equivalent of both Plouffe and Koskie.

 

They got to rebuild and they got to trade for young MLB-ready talent

 

Those years WERE the rebuild. The team right now is young. What are you going to rebuild? You keep saying this and it makes no sense whatsoever. 

 

The team didn't fail in 2016 because it wasn't talented. It had too many young players who didn't know their way in the big leagues. They can and will grow together, but will need supplementation. 

[Brandon Warne]

I have no problem with the "trade anything not stapled down" idea, but that's pretty much Ervin Santana, Brian Dozier and a bunch of spare parts. You aren't getting much for Robbie Grossman. I can be convinced if the team moves on from one or the other of Byungho Park and/or Kennys Vargas. 

 

But if nobody is giving you want you need back, you hang onto Dozier and Santana, both of whom are A. good players and B. great guys for the clubhouse culture you want to create. Neither of them are really *blocking* anyone. I'd rather see Jorge Polanco every day at short than Polanco-Escobar up the middle every day next year if I had to choose, and I really like Escobar. 

[Mr. Brooks]

I have no problem with the "trade anything not stapled down" idea, but that's pretty much Ervin Santana, Brian Dozier and a bunch of spare parts. You aren't getting much for Robbie Grossman. I can be convinced if the team moves on from one or the other of Byungho Park and/or Kennys Vargas.

 

But if nobody is giving you want you need back, you hang onto Dozier and Santana, both of whom are A. good players and B. great guys for the clubhouse culture you want to create. Neither of them are really *blocking* anyone. I'd rather see Jorge Polanco every day at short than Polanco-Escobar up the middle every day next year if I had to choose, and I really like Escobar.

I could see teams playing hardball with Dozier, but the SP class this offseason is awful.

They will get fair offers for Ervin, if they don't trade it will be because they decided they won't.

[TheLeviathan]

It's a given that if no one offers anything we keep Dozier and Santana. But I don't reach that conclusion until I have extensively explored moving them. It is THE priority IMO.

[Mr. Brooks]

Those years WERE the rebuild. The team right now is young. What are you going to rebuild? You keep saying this and it makes no sense whatsoever.

 

The team didn't fail in 2016 because it wasn't talented. It had too many young players who didn't know their way in the big leagues. They can and will grow together, but will need supplementation.

I don't think they ever did actually rebuild. Rebuilding teams would have traded guys like Willingham, Perkins, Hughes, Suzuki and Plouffe when they still had value.

Outside of Span, they never made a single move that hinted at a rebuild.

Most of their young talent is just a byproduct of picking high in the draft.

[TheLeviathan]

Those years WERE the rebuild. The team right now is young. What are you going to rebuild? You keep saying this and it makes no sense whatsoever. 

 

The team didn't fail in 2016 because it wasn't talented. It had too many young players who didn't know their way in the big leagues. They can and will grow together, but will need supplementation.

 

They failed because the rebuild has netted nothing for pitching and that issue cannot be resolved by keeping everyone and hoping that a horrible staff magically becomes competent.

[Rosterman]

Very fine post. Still not sure who will be the closer, and not sure how May will eventually pan out in the rotation (he needs the innings). So many of the bullpen names are expendable (Boshers, Tonkin, Kintzler even, Pressly).

 

Yes, we need a catcher and if can get Castro for that price, fine.

 

The more one looks at Plouffe, we probably need that safety net for third, if the alternative is Escobar.

 

I could still live without Escobar if push comes to shove and go with another signee. But wait and see. He might still be a minor trade chip if someone needs a shortstop.

 

We have to hope Hughes comes back and Gibson increases his trade value. If Santana and Dozier can hold forth and keep up their value, maybe the Twins can flip them if they start to tank.

 

I still wonder who the coaching staff will be, and at this point, I would rather pout my faith in a Dougie M. as a possible manager if the club is truly rebuilding.

 

The pain is we got all these parts that really have little or no value, and why are we keeping them on the 40-man (Park, Santana for example).

[Thrylos]

 

Those years WERE the rebuild. The team right now is young. What are you going to rebuild? You keep saying this and it makes no sense whatsoever.

 

Data.  Here.  Look at team ages.  They are not young. They were older than the 2009 team...

 

Neither they rebuild the last few seasons.  Compare that with the real rebuild in the early 80s...

 

 

[Brandon Warne]

 

It's a given that if no one offers anything we keep Dozier and Santana. But I don't reach that conclusion until I have extensively explored moving them. It is THE priority IMO.

 

Did I not dedicate an entire section of the blueprint to this? 

[Brandon Warne]

 

Data.  Here.  Look at team ages.  They are not young. They were older than the 2009 team...

 

Neither they rebuild the last few seasons.  Compare that with the real rebuild in the early 80s...

 

They had the second-youngest batters in the AL. Everyone knows their pitching needs to be changed out, and they were still younger than the AL average on that side of things.

 

AL average hitter age - 28.7 (Twins second-youngest, 27.0)

AL average pitcher age - 28.6 (Twins sixth-youngest, 28.3)

 

You were saying?

[TheLeviathan]

Did I not dedicate an entire section of the blueprint to this?

 

And the first sentence basically eliminates the possibility. So, yeah, not really buying that.

 

Our entire offseason has to be built around those trades or we can plan on losing another 90 for awhile.

[Brandon Warne]

 

And the first sentence basically eliminates the possibility. So, yeah, not really buying that.

Our entire offseason has to be built around those trades or we can plan on losing another 90 for awhile.

 

Trading them for less than they're worth doesn't move the needle, either. 

[TheLeviathan]

Trading them for less than they're worth doesn't move the needle, either.

 

I doubt that happens. But none of us know.

 

I get the difficulty, making a blueprint around two huge trade chips is basically impossible. But if those trades don't happen we are in serious trouble.

 

So I seriously hope your plan doesn't happen because those deals do happen. Otherwise we are in trouble.

[Mike Sixel]

Trading them for players that help in the near future is better than holding onto them for some kind of mythical fair trade. Santana will not be here when they are good. Probably not Dozier either....

[TheLeviathan]

Right, after two years Dozier and Santana are no longer Twins anyway. Every month they remain a Twin after December is a risk of losing tremendous value in the name of very small odds of success.

[Mr. Brooks]

They had the second-youngest batters in the AL. Everyone knows their pitching needs to be changed out, and they were still younger than the AL average on that side of things.

 

AL average hitter age - 28.7 (Twins second-youngest, 27.0)

AL average pitcher age - 28.6 (Twins sixth-youngest, 28.3)

 

You were saying?

If most of the pitching staff still needs to be rebuilt, then aren't they, by definition, still rebuilding?

 

This pitching staff isn't just a few tweaks away, IMO.

[The Wise One]

 

Data.  Here.  Look at team ages.  They are not young. They were older than the 2009 team...

 

Neither they rebuild the last few seasons.  Compare that with the real rebuild in the early 80s...

Nolasco 33 gone

Fien 32, gone,

Jepsen 31, gone

Abad, 30  gone

Mastroianni, 30 gone

Albers, 30 gone

Logan Schaffer, 29 gone

Millone 29, gone

Nunez, 29 gone

 

 

Suzuki,  32 likely gone

 

That is 9 to 10 players that brought up the average on your list gone. The question becomes what replaces them

 

[Brandon Warne]

 

If most of the pitching staff still needs to be rebuilt, then aren't they, by definition, still rebuilding?

This pitching staff isn't just a few tweaks away, IMO.

 

Hard to say. A good rotation isn't a must in today's game, but it sure is helpful. 

[Brandon Warne]

That doesn't mean you can just plan to turn over all five of the starters you have, though. They have to stick within what they have. Is it unreasonable for Santana, Hughes and one of May-Gibson-Berrios to have decent years? Not really. That's a fairly good foundation. 

 

Don't take that to mean I'm saying it's very good, but you can only start from where you're standing. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

That doesn't mean you can just plan to turn over all five of the starters you have, though. They have to stick within what they have. Is it unreasonable for Santana, Hughes and one of May-Gibson-Berrios to have decent years? Not really. That's a fairly good foundation. 

 

Don't take that to mean I'm saying it's very good, but you can only start from where you're standing. 

 

Or you can go out and get some new shoes.  The fix for this pitching staff isn't coming internally for at least several seasons.  If the hope is that Kyle Gibson and the remnants of Phil Hughes' right arm are going to be our lifeline.....well, I think that speaks for itself.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Or you can go out and get some new shoes.  The fix for this pitching staff isn't coming internally for at least several seasons.  If the hope is that Kyle Gibson and the remnants of Phil Hughes' right arm are going to be our lifeline.....well, I think that speaks for itself.

 

Dude. Name some names, then. The fact of the matter is it's going to be a buyer's market whether it's on the free agent market or in trades. 

 

You sure love to be critical without offering much in the way of solutions of your own. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Dude. Name some names, then. The fact of the matter is it's going to be a buyer's market whether it's on the free agent market or in trades. 

 

You sure love to be critical without offering much in the way of solutions of your own. 

 

The solution is to trade Ervin Santana and Brian Dozier for needs.  Speculating on trade packages is good for giggles, but it's nothing but speculation.  What do you want me to say? Trade for Urias?  I don't know what will be out there, but I know Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes aren't going to fix anything.

 

And Ervin Santana will be a trade chip in a seller's market, quite the opposite of your claim.  Brian Dozier's value should be solid, at the very least it will never be higher.

 

Naming names isn't helpful, but I'll do this: Call the Dodgers, Pirates, Mets, and every other professional baseball team about your two big assets.  That's your only hope long term.

[Brandon Warne]

That's fine. But if it brings back more unproven young talent, how do you ever dig out of the hole? How many more young outfielders does a team need? 

 

How many teams are going to trade pitching talent better than Ervin Santana in the future for him right now? 

 

If I'm wrong that's fine, but at the end of the day I'm still not sure the Twins get enough for it to make sense. They have the young, close-to-ripe pieces that are ready to take off. Miguel Sano is too good to play like this forever. Byron Buxton looks close. Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler look like players. 

 

They need stability behind the plate and better pitching. That alone will work wonders for wherever they're headed next year, whether they win 90 games or lose 90 games. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

That's fine. But if it brings back more unproven young talent, how do you ever dig out of the hole? How many more young outfielders does a team need? 

 

How many teams are going to trade pitching talent better than Ervin Santana in the future for him right now? 

 

At this point we have to trust our new leadership to identify the right young talent and hope we get enough of it in return to help move the needle.

 

Given the SP market, I think there may be significant interest in Ervin, but we have to find out.

 

This is not a pitching staff full of young guys trying to take the next step.  It isn't getting better internally for a long time, so you have two choices: accept having bad to mediocre pitching or try to fix it by gambling some of your older assets.  

 

And, you can still sign Castro in that case.  Because these young arms will need better defense.  But why waste those efforts on 30 somethings with little upside?  Why not gamble on upside?  Isn't that the only path forward?

[The Wise One]

 

I don't think they ever did actually rebuild. Rebuilding teams would have traded guys like Willingham, Perkins, Hughes, Suzuki and Plouffe when they still had value.
Outside of Span, they never made a single move that hinted at a rebuild.
Most of their young talent is just a byproduct of picking high in the draft.

Willingham had no value. Oft inured and 2 years on a contract equals no value Suzuki had no value.  Hughes after one good year would have a little value but because he had never had sustained success not a whole lot. The demand was not that great for him the previous winter. . you would have to find a GM with a love for Hughes. Ryan was already taken. Trading Perkins in the offseason  may have netted something. The Reds sure did not get value for Chapman.

[Mike Sixel]

Willingham had no value. Oft inured and 2 years on a contract equals no value Suzuki had no value. Hughes after one good year would have a little value but because he had never had sustained success not a whole lot. The demand was not that great for him the previous winter. . you would have to find a GM with a love for Hughes. Ryan was already taken. Trading Perkins in the offseason may have netted something. The Reds sure did not get value for Chapman.

Chapman was under a cloud of investigation....We get it, there was just nothing the twins could do according to some people.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

They had the second-youngest batters in the AL. Everyone knows their pitching needs to be changed out, and they were still younger than the AL average on that side of things.

 

AL average hitter age - 28.7 (Twins second-youngest, 27.0)

AL average pitcher age - 28.6 (Twins sixth-youngest, 28.3)

 

You were saying?

 

I think this is the problem with not trading Dozier.  You don't trade out the pitching and instead roll the dice on an unconventional Santiago...  I'll admit, I was a bit wrong after looking at his stats, but he's still not the type of guy I put my odds on.  They need some higher ceiling talent in the rotation.  May certainly could be there, but he's a question mark.  Berrios is much the same in that capacity. So right there, you have 2 question marks penciled in.  Gibson is another, who has shown he can do it, but still, that's 3.  You can augment them with ESan (2 years left) and Santiago (1 year left and a lower ceiling), but I'd guess that at least one of the 3 question marks don't pan out.  If you're lucky, the other two show flashes of potential while taking some lumps.  I'm not sure that gets us back to 80 wins, and even if it does, I don't see how that helps this team in 2020.  There's some nice talent in the pipeline, but I'd much rather trade guys like Santiago, Santana, and Dozier to bring in some higher ceiling guys like Urias or Glasnow, not to mention help at C.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Chapman was under a cloud of investigation....We get it, there was just nothing the twins could do according to some people.

I find statements like this amusing, especially given some of the things I read on Adrian Peterson on Vikings Journal.  I don't have too much of an issue if the Twins decided it wise to avoid an accused domestic abuser.

 

Sure, they could have gotten him and flipped him.  It definitely would have helped the team.  But how is this any different from an AP situation? 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Those years WERE the rebuild. The team right now is young. What are you going to rebuild? You keep saying this and it makes no sense whatsoever.

 

The team didn't fail in 2016 because it wasn't talented. It had too many young players who didn't know their way in the big leagues. They can and will grow together, but will need supplementation.

nah 2016 failed because they had no pitching, no catcher, no shortstop, and Danny Santana playing a crazy amount of CF. they failed up the middle.

 

Buxton fixes CF and Castro fixes catcher. Gotta fix pitcher and SS. I'd be ok if Polanco was given another shot, but prefer if Dozier was traded for a pitcher(s).

 

I would also see if you can buy out Mauer or move him into a coaching role. His roster spot is worth more than his play. Vargas/Sano/Plouffe/Palka should be the 3b/1b/DH rotation.

 

I still gotta work though SS. Maybe give Esco another shot and maybe use Beresford as the stopgap utility guy or a minor league FA.