My Offseason Blueprint

[Thrylos]

 

Willingham had no value.

 

Willingham had tremendous value after his .260/.366/.524. 35 HR season.  Ryan, like usual, did not sell high and then Willinghman's value elapsed.  Ditto Suzuki after his All Star season.

Same with Santana and Dozier.  That's why they need to go at the peak of their value...

[jimmer]

 

Chapman was under a cloud of investigation....We get it, there was just nothing the twins could do according to some people.

What ever happened with that investigation?  Last I heard there were conflicting stories, inconsistency with the girlfriend's story herself, and no evidence. I have no idea whether more stuff came out afterwards.  Do you know if more did?

[Mr. Brooks]

I find statements like this amusing, especially given some of the things I read on Adrian Peterson on Vikings Journal. I don't have too much of an issue if the Twins decided it wise to avoid an accused domestic abuser.

 

Sure, they could have gotten him and flipped him. It definitely would have helped the team. But how is this any different from an AP situation?

Don't want to speak for Mike, but I'm pretty darn sure he wasn't calling for us to trade for Chapman.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I find statements like this amusing, especially given some of the things I read on Adrian Peterson on Vikings Journal.  I don't have too much of an issue if the Twins decided it wise to avoid an accused domestic abuser.

 

Sure, they could have gotten him and flipped him.  It definitely would have helped the team.  But how is this any different from an AP situation? 

 

Uh, the point was that he didn't garner much in a trade....he didn't return much in the first trade (to the Yankees) because he was under a cloud of investigation. That was the point.....not at all about if the Twins or anyone else should employ him. Someone said "perkins would not have returned much, look how little chapman returned"......

[Tomj14]

 

nah 2016 failed because they had no pitching, no catcher, no shortstop, and Danny Santana playing a crazy amount of CF. they failed up the middle.

Buxton fixes CF and Castro fixes catcher. Gotta fix pitcher and SS. I'd be ok if Polanco was given another shot, but prefer if Dozier was traded for a pitcher(s).

I would also see if you can buy out Mauer or move him into a coaching role. His roster spot is worth more than his play. Vargas/Sano/Plouffe/Palka should be the 3b/1b/DH rotation.

I still gotta work though SS. Maybe give Esco another shot and maybe use Beresford as the stopgap utility guy or a minor league FA.

 

I am not a huge fan of Mauer, but if you go into next season with Vargas, Sano, Plouffe, Palka, Buxton, Kepler. Escobar, Polanco, Rosario and a Catcher, there is a good chance everybody K's more than 100 times. (Plus Dozier if he is around) and I don't think any pitching staff will over come that.

In my opinion that is the issue with the Twins offense now, they just strikeout way too many times.

Team At bats - 5618

Team K's - 1426

25.38%

 

If they don't figure out how to get on base more then we are going to end up looking for our next set of offense players and yet another rebuild.

 

As long as we have Sano, Buxton, Rosario and Kepler, there is no place on this team for ABW or Palka.

 

 

[DocBauer]

I am not a huge fan of Mauer, but if you go into next season with Vargas, Sano, Plouffe, Palka, Buxton, Kepler. Escobar, Polanco, Rosario and a Catcher, there is a good chance everybody K's more than 100 times. (Plus Dozier if he is around) and I don't think any pitching staff will over come that.

In my opinion that is the issue with the Twins offense now, they just strikeout way too many times.

Team At bats - 5618

Team K's - 1426

25.38%

 

If they don't figure out how to get on base more then we are going to end up looking for our next set of offense players and yet another rebuild.

 

As long as we have Sano, Buxton, Rosario and Kepler, there is no place on this team for ABW or Palka.

Disagree with your final comment. I could easily see Palka as a 1B and corner OF, even as a rotational player, while becoming a fixture at DH when not in the field.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

I am not a huge fan of Mauer, but if you go into next season with Vargas, Sano, Plouffe, Palka, Buxton, Kepler. Escobar, Polanco, Rosario and a Catcher, there is a good chance everybody K's more than 100 times. (Plus Dozier if he is around) and I don't think any pitching staff will over come that.

In my opinion that is the issue with the Twins offense now, they just strikeout way too many times.

Team At bats - 5618

Team K's - 1426

25.38%

 

If they don't figure out how to get on base more then we are going to end up looking for our next set of offense players and yet another rebuild.

 

As long as we have Sano, Buxton, Rosario and Kepler, there is no place on this team for ABW or Palka.

Joe Mauer is not the 10-12% K rate guy anymore, he has been 16-18% for the last three seasons. Agreed, they strike out too much, my solution would be to not to hang on to aging veterans, but change your coaching and philosophy.

[jimmer]

 

Joe Mauer is not the 10-12% K rate guy anymore, he has been 16-18% for the last three seasons. .

Which still puts him lowest on the team.

[Tomj14]

 

Joe Mauer is not the 10-12% K rate guy anymore, he has been 16-18% for the last three seasons. Agreed, they strike out too much, my solution would be to not to hang on to aging veterans, but change your coaching and philosophy.

Mauer strikes out too much also, but you are talking about swapping him out for a rookie that more than likely will strike out at twice the rate if not more.

If you are going to go with an outfield of Rosario, Buxton and Kepler and they play 150 games and strike out at the same rate as last year you are looking at (192,123,148) about 460 K's. Even if they improve and that drops to just under 400, you can't add another K machine to that outfield.

If you go with Polanco, Sano and Dozier in the infield you are looking at (230,100,127) another 450 K's at 150 games.

Like I said with those guys you can't add another K machine.  Both Palka and ABW K about 1.5 times a game though out their minor league career. There may be a spot for one of them but not unless you remove Sano, Buxton or Rosario from the mix.

Again I am not a huge Mauer fan, but the talk of replacing his .363 OBP and replacing that with one of two guys that had OBP in AAA of .305 and .296 last year doesn't sound like a winning formula to me.

ABW highest OBP in the minors is .319. 

Palka does have a .346 career OBP but again he is 25 already and has only played 133 games above A ball.

Just my opinion.

 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

Mauer strikes out too much also, but you are talking about swapping him out for a rookie that more than likely will strike out at twice the rate if not more.

If you are going to go with an outfield of Rosario, Buxton and Kepler and they play 150 games and strike out at the same rate as last year you are looking at (192,123,148) about 460 K's. Even if they improve and that drops to just under 400, you can't add another K machine to that outfield.

If you go with Polanco, Sano and Dozier in the infield you are looking at (230,100,127) another 450 K's at 150 games.

Like I said with those guys you can't add another K machine.  Both Palka and ABW K about 1.5 times a game though out their minor league career. There may be a spot for one of them but not unless you remove Sano, Buxton or Rosario from the mix.

Again I am not a huge Mauer fan, but the talk of replacing his .363 OBP and replacing that with one of two guys that had OBP in AAA of .305 and .296 last year doesn't sound like a winning formula to me.

ABW highest OBP in the minors is .319. 

Palka does have a .346 career OBP but again he is 25 already and has only played 133 games above A ball.

Just my opinion. 

 

What about Kennys Vargas? 333 OBP in the big, 363 in AAA, SSS but in line w/ his career. He's out of options and 26 years old, do you let 333 OBP go for nothing or rot on the bench?

 

I think Vargas can fill Joes role better than Joe can and is young enough to have some upside. His K rate is a bit high around 20%, but 13% walk rate helps buoy his OBP. Sano too has shown the ability to get on base. K rate bothers me less than OBP. I'd rather Sano and Vargas K than hit GIDP, as those two are not speed demons and should not be beating out infield grounders with any regularity. 

 

With Bruno going bye bye, I think it's possible that a new hitting philosophy in the clubhouse can help ABW/Palka/

[Brandon Warne]

Bumping this since people are doing these more now than they were a few days ago.

[Foghorn Leghorn]

No to plouffe. And a big NO to have Hughes in the rotation above berrios..

[The Wise One]

 

Willingham had tremendous value after his .260/.366/.524. 35 HR season.  Ryan, like usual, did not sell high and then Willinghman's value elapsed.  Ditto Suzuki after his All Star season.

Same with Santana and Dozier.  That's why they need to go at the peak of their value...

Bull.  Considering the time he spent on the DL  there was no way a team was going to trade for him and give the Twins anything but salary relief.  He had a career year.  I guess more teams than the Twins do not have a metrics department that would be predictive of future play.  Ditto for Suzuki.   You are correct that they should have traded Danny Santana after his career year. Again, a metrics department probably cured that notion.   Even the amateur GM's here knew that Santana couldn't put up those numbers again.   In case you mean Ervin Santana, to go with Dozier, the people have not even been in place yet who will be making the trades.  Try at least a little realism

[The Wise One]

 

Chapman was under a cloud of investigation....We get it, there was just nothing the twins could do according to some people.

Ken Giles netted the Phillies a prospect falling on the recruiting lists, 2 org fillers for the minors and 2 org fillers for the majors.   Giles has a lot of team control remaining. When relievers could be bought for relatively cheap there is not going to be a return.   A deadline deal maybe, hell somebody got a all star catcher for a relief pitcher near the deadline, once. Somebody here once called a relief pitcher a fungible asset . People's minds do change

[mazeville]

I will never get this "they have more value to the Twins than they would in a trade" stuff. No, that's not true.

 

First, the free agent pitching market is thin, meaning Santana could fetch a decent return in a trade scenario - and teams have indeed been calling. 

 

And what value does Dozier have for the Twins right now? By the time the Twins start winning, he hits free agency. He is precisely the type of player a rebuilding team like the Twins needs to trade. 

 

In addition, the Twins lost 103 games -- 103 games! -- and have lost at least 90 games in five of six years. There is nobody on this team who is not a trade candidate. Nobody. 

[dbminn]

Thanks for putting up the blueprint, Brandon. I won't quibble with Castro and Gomez, although I don't think Gomez is going to be had on a one-year contract. There are a couple of changes I would make:

• Trade Dozier as long as the return reflects a cheap player in his prime that has outperformed the league the last three years (13.9 fWAR total).
• Trade Ervin if the return is above value.

Key positions in return would be young SS, SP and RP in order of priority. No need to rush Gordon. There's no problem if he develops quicker than expected. It will be easy to trade from an excess of shortstops. I have no problem if Dozier is traded and the primary return is a SP. They're close in priority.

 

Lesser changes:

• The trade window has passed on Plouffe. Time to let him go.
• Keep Santiago but trade him if a real prospect can be had. That may seem outrageous but the free agent SP market is really thin. 

[Tomj14]

 

What about Kennys Vargas? 333 OBP in the big, 363 in AAA, SSS but in line w/ his career. He's out of options and 26 years old, do you let 333 OBP go for nothing or rot on the bench?

 

I think Vargas can fill Joes role better than Joe can and is young enough to have some upside. His K rate is a bit high around 20%, but 13% walk rate helps buoy his OBP. Sano too has shown the ability to get on base. K rate bothers me less than OBP. I'd rather Sano and Vargas K than hit GIDP, as those two are not speed demons and should not be beating out infield grounders with any regularity. 

 

With Bruno going bye bye, I think it's possible that a new hitting philosophy in the clubhouse can help ABW/Palka/

On Vargas his career major league OBP is .309 and his K rate is 32%. In the minors he does have an excellent OBP (.372) but his K rate is 22%.

I am not saying Mauer is the answer at all, my point is you can't start a whole teams that is going to K as much as these guys and expect to consistently win. That is why I am saying there isn't room for all these guys, if you want Palka, ABW and Vargas you can't have Sano, Buxton, Rosario and Kepler in the lineup. They are going to have to pick 3 or 4 of them and figure out how to swap the others for players that can help.

Plus Vargas, ABW and Palka are all over 25, while Kepler, Buxton, Sano and Rosario are under 25.