The Key to the Twins Offseason is....Brian Dozier?

[jimmer]

 

This is an interesting problem with Dozier: How exactly are the professionals projecting this offensive outburst? From June 1, 2015 through May 31, 2016 he had a 84 wRC+. Since then he has had a 178 wRC+. How are teams going to balance those streaks. Will he be valued as a 6 WAR player like he is currently playing? Or just a 4 WAR player like his career average? And how will teams project his decline? He is turning 30, and while his defense has held steady so far, it wouldn't be shocking to see it start to slip over the next two seasons.

Well, JUST a 4 WAR player is a fine player (All Star level) and worth about 32M a season.  And he's getting paid way less than that.

[Loosey]

My concerns about trading Dozier is who and what type of player will they Twins get in return?  We all have seen his amazing stretches, but we all have seen what type of player he is when he is off.  All the other GM's in baseball have seen those bad stretches as well, which could temper the return.  

 

That being said, if blown away with a package prospects and at least one front end ML or ML Ready starter pull the trigger.   If not, hold and hope he continues to hit.  2018 is going to be a crazy good free agent class.  That might be the year the Twins go all in on Free Agency and try to get that Ace.

[markos]

 

Well, JUST a 4 WAR player is a fine player (All Star level) and worth about 30M.  And he's getting paid way less than that.

Sure, but it will change the quality of the return. For example, consider Marcus Stroman with the Blue Jays. He is (arguably) a 2-3 WAR pitcher with 4 seasons of team control remaining. That kind of pitcher is extremely value and exactly what the Twins need. I could legitimately see the Blue Jays trading Stroman for Dozier if they thought Dozier is a 6 WAR player going forward, but not so much as a 4 WAR player. 

[Blackjack]

 

What you really mean is:

 

"I'd still trade Dozier before he possibly turns back into a 3-4 WAR player, which is still very valuable and above average. But I don't really know if Dozier will turn back into a 3-4 WAR player in the near future or if he'll plateau in the 5-6 WAR range, as none of us have a crystal ball."

 

Pumpkin not definitive for you?? You got the drift.

 

I said what I meant - trade him at peak value before he turns into a pumpkin, or a dud, or gets hurt, or turns in another ho-hum performance leading up to trade deadline in 2017, cutting back on his value.

 

Trade him at peak value. He's a very good player but does the Twins no good when they can't pitch.

[jimmer]

 

Sure, but it will change the quality of the return. For example, consider Marcus Stroman with the Blue Jays. He is (arguably) a 2-3 WAR pitcher with 4 seasons of team control remaining. That kind of pitcher is extremely value and exactly what the Twins need. I could legitimately see the Blue Jays trading Stroman for Dozier if they thought Dozier is a 6 WAR player going forward, but not so much as a 4 WAR player. 

I think most GMs will figure around 3-4.5 WAR Dozier going forward.  Which is still a very valuable player at a low price.  Let's take the hypothetical that the Span trade turned out the way some thought it would, We'd hope for the same kind of return.

[Blackjack]

 

You are right, but trading Dozier for an average pitcher isn't what they need.  They need a front line starter.  Trading Dozier for a mid range guy would be absurd.

You are correct, the results of the trade are what count. Anytime you make a trade its a crapshoot, Ryan tried to get pitching when he traded Span and Revere, but it didn't work out.

 

There was a very nice encouraging article on cbssports.com  concerning the trades that Detroit make last for Price and Cespedes, they got a nice return that's helping them a year later.  It can be done.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/tigers-in-the-hunt-this-year-thanks-to-players-they-got-in-cespedes-price-trades/

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

 

My concerns about trading Dozier is who and what type of player will they Twins get in return?  We all have seen his amazing stretches, but we all have seen what type of player he is when he is off.  All the other GM's in baseball have seen those bad stretches as well, which could temper the return.  

 

That being said, if blown away with a package prospects and at least one front end ML or ML Ready starter pull the trigger.   If not, hold and hope he continues to hit.  2018 is going to be a crazy good free agent class.  That might be the year the Twins go all in on Free Agency and try to get that Ace.

 

There are lots of possibilities, you never know what club is going to try and push.  I don't think anyone here is advocating to hand him away.

 

But he MUST be shopped aggressively and should be sold if you can get a good return that can help this team in the next 1-3 years.  

[Blackjack]

 

If you think he can't remain good, why would professional GMs?  If his perceived value is that of an average second baseman, he won't bring much back at all so the Twins are better off keeping him.

Even if he does remain good he's still your best trade chip to improve the pitching.  He could just as easily regress, get hurt, etc. and then who do you trade to improve your pitching??

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Pumpkin not definitive for you?? You got the drift.

 

I said what I meant - trade him at peak value before he turns into a pumpkin, or a dud, or gets hurt, or turns in another ho-hum performance leading up to trade deadline in 2017, cutting back on his value.

 

Trade him at peak value. He's a very good player but does the Twins no good when they can't pitch.

No, in this case "pumpkin" is neither definitive nor accurate.

 

Pumpkins have no value. It's likely Dozier will retain value and quite a bit of it.

 

I want to see Dozier shopped but I won't lose sleep if no one offers fair value and the Twins let him play out the contract.

[DaveW]

 

Based off this sentence, why would others give up talent for Rosario, a corner OF then? 

Because Rosario CAN PLAY Center-field, and should be playing CF for a number of teams. He just happens to be on a team with the best CF prospect the game has seen in some time.

[Mike Sixel]

 

No, in this case "pumpkin" is neither definitive nor accurate.

 

Pumpkins have no value. It's likely Dozier will retain value and quite a bit of it.

 

I want to see Dozier shopped but I won't lose sleep if no one offers fair value and the Twins let him play out the contract.

 

Unless you like pumpkin pie, or cookies....sure....**

 

**if you take this post seriously, sigh.

[DaveW]

 

 

 

Dozier could net you value in a deal.  Dozier is approaching 30 and will be a player you absolutely, under no circumstances, extend when his deal expires.  He, as recently as 3 months ago, should have been hitting 7th or not at all in the lineup.  The next two years, if a team believes he can keep this up, would be highly valuable to a contender.  

 

Use that to improve the part of this team that has a bleak outlook next year.  It's the only trade chip we have that can actually move the needle for this team.

All of this could have been said about Jose Bautista after his break out season, you think the Blue Jays regretted keeping him around?

 

With Dozier the power is very real.

[DaveW]

 

Well, Rosario isn't returning even close to the same package as Dozier. There is not another OF that can replace him like Polanco can Dozier (and if you read that to say Polanco is as good as Dozier, you aren't trying).  

 

If Rosario could return anything close to a AA SP prospect like Berrios or Gonsalves, I'd do that....but he's not close, not even in the ballpark. Also, no, you can't just go get a corner OF next year.

You and others are completely ignoring or missing my point about Rosario.

Rosario is a natural CF, he is good enough to play an above average CF in the major leagues, that is very valuable. It is a waste at this point to have him in the corner OF, since you want your corner OF to have "bigger bats"

Corner OF is also the easiest position to backfill via free agency, Josh Willingham, Nelson Cruz were both had on cheap deals, and Jay Bruce and several more will be available this off-season as well. Of course you could always move Mauer to a corner OF spot if you end up with a roster crunch at first.

 

Rosario basically has a lot more value to a team if he is playing CF then if he is playing LF/RF.

[Blackjack]

 

 

 

Pumpkins have no value.

 

 

The neighbor kids would disagree. You should have seen the smiles on their faces when I grew pumpkins a few years back and let them come and take whichever one they wanted. The only qualifier was that their Dad had to be able to lift it into the truck.

 

Trade Dozier before he turns into a pumpkin. Or gets hurt. Or even if you think he'll hit 40 HR's the next two years -- very doubtful, IMHO -- but trade him for pitching. 

 

Enough said in this thread.  Its all starting to get repeated. It will be interesting to see what the new Twins management does with Dozier.

[DaveW]

The Twins have a 29 year old 2nd baseman who is about to be only the 2nd guy in franchise HISTORY to hit 40+ HR, and people want to trade him. He has the 6th highest WAR in all of baseball, and we want to trade him?!?!

 

Yes, the Twins need pitching, but the Twins also need someone in the lineup who can protect guys like Sano and Buxton moving forward. Is "replacement sure thing" Polanco going to do that?

 

The Twins have plenty of other bullets to pull off some trades, and they have plenty of cash to spend this off-season and the next (the 2017 free agent class loks much better for SP)

 

Keep your core best young/cheap etc players: Buxton, Sano, Dozier, Kepler, Berrios and build around them. Everyone else is who you look to trade.

 

If you are going to trade the guy with the 6th highest WAR in baseball, you damn well better be getting back a pitcher who can be the 6th best pitcher in baseball, or at the very least the 15th-20th best pitcher in baseball.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

You and others are completely ignoring or missing my point about Rosario.

Rosario is a natural CF, he is good enough to play an above average CF in the major leagues, that is very valuable. It is a waste at this point to have him in the corner OF, since you want your corner OF to have "bigger bats"

Corner OF is also the easiest position to backfill via free agency, Josh Willingham, Nelson Cruz were both had on cheap deals, and Jay Bruce and several more will be available this off-season as well. Of course you could always move Mauer to a corner OF spot if you end up with a roster crunch at first.

 

Rosario basically has a lot more value to a team if he is playing CF then if he is playing LF/RF.

 

I'm not missing your point at all.....he isn't all that great, and he's not returning a SP that is going to matter all that much in making this team great, imo.

[DaveW]

 

I'm not missing your point at all.....he isn't all that great, and he's not returning a SP that is going to matter all that much in making this team great, imo.

He has a lot more potential then Ben Revere in every single skill set with the exception of raw speed. Revere netted us Worley and May. The latter of which has some upside as a SP still.

 

Denard Span netted us Alex Meyer, a top 50 pitching prospect who is about to become a solid #2 for the LAA.

Besides, the Twins apparently have a deep farm system, no? You can include other players along with Rosario as well. Nunez just snagged us a decent SP prospect, correct?

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

He has a lot more potential then Ben Revere in every single skill set with the exception of raw speed. Revere netted us Worley and May. The latter of which has some upside as a SP still.

 

Denard Span netted us Alex Meyer, a top 50 pitching prospect who is about to become a solid #2 for the LAA.

Besides, the Twins apparently have a deep farm system, no? You can include other players along with Rosario as well. Nunez just snagged us a decent SP prospect, correct?

 

All fair. I don't think he'd net the kind of guy are you are asking for......and Nunez netted them a #5ish type, imo.

[TheLeviathan]

So now you're advocating the ol' video game trade of offering one so-so player and a load of crap for a better player?

 

C'mon Dave, reality is begging for you to join it.  Rosario isn't going to net much of anything.

[DaveW]

Pitchers the Twins should target/buy low on:

 

Francisco Liriano- 2017 will be his contract year, I would love to see how he could do with a good pitching coach here (assuming Allen is not back)

 

Shelby Miller- Price should be rock bottom, go for it.

 

Anyone else?

[wsnydes]

 

I'm sorry, this line of thinking is just absurd. Dozier is a 6+ WAR player, those type of guys are not expendable. That's like saying Buxton is expendable because Rosario can play CF or something.

I agree with this logic, but I don't think Dozier will be a perennial 6+ WAR.  I don't believe he'll put up these types of numbers for the duration of his contract.  That's why I'm on the "trade him while the iron is hot" bandwagon.  The team needs pitching badly, trading a guy coming off of a 6 WAR season is a means to acquire it.  I'm comfortable with Polanco replacing him.  Quality pitching isn't easy to come by.

 

That being said, they need to get a nice haul for him.  Giving him away would be an absolute mistake.  It would be better to keep him at that point.

[DaveW]

 

 

So now you're advocating the ol' video game trade of offering one so-so player and a load of crap for a better player?

 

C'mon Dave, reality is begging for you to join it.  Rosario isn't going to net much of anything.

Give me a break, I never suggested that and you know it.

 

I also mentioned that they would add in pieces along with Rosario from our "deep farm system" that the previous regime was too scared to ever trade away.

 

Additionally I provided examples: Ben Revere for May+Worley on the type of value that Rosario could bring back in a trade (or better TBH) I feel like there are always teams in need of a CF, Rosario provides them an above average fielding CF (great arm), who has the bat/potential to be an above average hitting CF as well.

[old nurse]

 

Where are the Twins bad on defense?  Looking at fangraphs, the Twins expected starters all seem to grade fairly well defensively.  The biggest offenders by DRS are Grossman LF, Sano RF, Santana CF, Escobar SS, Plouffe 3B, Nunez 3B, Nunez SS, Sano 3B.  Only Sano is expected to start next year.  By UZR it's mostly the same group except it likes Sano better and Kepler worse.

 

So it looks like an OF of Rosario/Buxton/Kepler would be good defensively and an infield of Sano/Polanco/Dozier/Mauer would be solid although not above avg.

Defensive runs above average, error rates are near the worst in the league, Throwing the ball  is not a strength,  UZR as a team is near the bottom.  Pick your defensive metric, one will tell you a different story than another.

[DaveW]

 

 

I agree with this logic, but I don't think Dozier will be a perennial 6+ WAR.  I don't believe he'll put up these types of numbers for the duration of his contract.  That's why I'm on the "trade him while the iron is hot" bandwagon.  The team needs pitching badly, trading a guy coming off of a 6 WAR season is a means to acquire it.  I'm comfortable with Polanco replacing him.  Quality pitching isn't easy to come by.

 

That being said, they need to get a nice haul for him.  Giving him away would be an absolute mistake.  It would be better to keep him at that point.

A nice haul to me is Cueto or better.

 

A pitcher who more or less should be in the top 15-20 of ALL SP each year, and the potential to be a top 5 or top ten pitcher with a good season.

 

Someone mentioned Stroman earlier, frankly, I don't think that would be near enough to give up a guy like Dozier who has the 6th highest WAR in all of baseball, and still has 3-4 very good years ahead of him.

[gheggs42]

Would the FO ever consider Dozier at 3B? Would he fair better there than Polanco? If you keep Dozier I think that is an idea they need to try out, sign or trade for a defensive first SS and slide Polanco to 2B, Sano to DH

[wsnydes]

 

A nice haul to me is Cueto or better.

 

A pitcher who more or less should be in the top 15-20 of ALL SP each year, and the potential to be a top 5 or top ten pitcher with a good season.

 

Someone mentioned Stroman earlier, frankly, I don't think that would be near enough to give up a guy like Dozier who has the 6th highest WAR in all of baseball, and still has 3-4 very good years ahead of him.

I don't disagree with any of that.  They should be targeting an impact arm.  That's the point of dealing Dozier at peak value.  

[DaveW]

Would the FO ever consider Dozier at 3B? Would he fair better there than Polanco? If you keep Dozier I think that is an idea they need to try out, sign or trade for a defensive first SS and slide Polanco to 2B, Sano to DH

Keep dozier at 2nd for a bit, let him focus on hitting 40 dongs a year.

 

Polanco can man 3rd if need be, no?

 

I think people are jumping the gun a bit on him anyways, he has potential and a nice start, but I'd like to see a bit more before I pencil in Polanco for the next several years.

[gunnarthor]

 

Defensive runs above average, error rates are near the worst in the league, Throwing the ball  is not a strength,  UZR as a team is near the bottom.  Pick your defensive metric, one will tell you a different story than another.

Sure, but the team stats are dragged down (significantly) by guys who don't seem to be a big part of the the future.  The DRS and UZR/150 from fangraphs for our projected starters next year are:

 

1b Mauer 5 and 2

2b Dozier 3 and 0

3b Sano -3 and 5
SS Polanco -1 and 7.1

LF Rosario 0 and 4.9.

CF Buxton 6 and 5

RF Kepler 2 and -4.

 

None of those, except Buxton, are great but none of those are gawd awful either.  The worst numbers we had were from guys like Santana in CF (-8 and -10) or Nunez, etc.  That's not a great defense but it's a lot better than a defense that has Grossman and Santana in the OF and Nunez and Escobar in the IF.

 

* And all this is with the huge grain of salt that defensive stats are a bit wonky, hard to value and hard to measure. 

[Vanimal46]

 

He has a lot more potential then Ben Revere in every single skill set with the exception of raw speed. Revere netted us Worley and May. The latter of which has some upside as a SP still.

 

Denard Span netted us Alex Meyer, a top 50 pitching prospect who is about to become a solid #2 for the LAA.

Besides, the Twins apparently have a deep farm system, no? You can include other players along with Rosario as well. Nunez just snagged us a decent SP prospect, correct?

Speaking of, I've been meaning to take that bet of $20 that Meyer will become a solid #2 for the LAA. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Give me a break, I never suggested that and you know it.

 

I also mentioned that they would add in pieces along with Rosario from our "deep farm system" that the previous regime was too scared to ever trade away.

 

Additionally I provided examples: Ben Revere for May+Worley on the type of value that Rosario could bring back in a trade (or better TBH) I feel like there are always teams in need of a CF, Rosario provides them an above average fielding CF (great arm), who has the bat/potential to be an above average hitting CF as well.

 

But you want to highlight a deal with Rosario and add other prospects.  Sorry Dave, that is a video game trade idea. 

 

Adding someone like May doesn't help us for at least 3-4 seasons down the line and is a risky manuever.  Frankly, as far as I'm concerned, Rosario is the starting LF next year.  I'd rather keep him around as Buxton insurance (that kid has hardly been durable) and find other ways to add pitching.

 

Again, Dozier has been wonderful for the last three months.  A binge of epic proportions.  He was also flirting with an OPS of around .600 in May and nearly into June.  He's 29.  He won't be here more than two more years.  How many more glaring, neon-lit red flags for "DEAL ME NOW!" does there have to be?  If there was ever a sell high moment, it'll come in about two months time.  

 

The Dodgers, maybe even the Cardinals, Cubs, Pirates, Mets, Red Sox, and possibly others might all be able to offer us something interesting for Dozier.  We should be shopping him hard.

 

And I wouldn't set the bar at getting an ace.  I'd set the bar at getting a guy with clear #2 potential and more.  Like Berrios.  And I'd want a couple other young pieces (pitching or catching) as well.