The Key to the Twins Offseason is....Brian Dozier?

[Blackjack]

 

 

Do they really? It's possible the new regime views Polanco as a capable shortstop.

 

I'd still trade Dozier before he turns into a pumpkin. THE TWINS NEED PITCHING!!!!!

[DaveW]

 

As streaky as Dozier is, what are the odds that he continues to be a 6+ WAR player?? Cash in while he's hot!!!! By next June he might be back to hitting .199 again. The Twins need pitching and he's your best trade chip!!! What good is it to have a guy hit three home runs and lose by 6????!!!!

Dozier is hitting a home run every 7.8 at bats at this point, that's not just being "hot" or luck. He changed up his swing and has been a significantly better player ever since then. He is only 29, so he is right in his prime and has showed steady and significant improvement HR wise each of the past 4 years. 6 WAR next year? Maybe not, but I think anywhere between 5 and 6.5 is his "range" in 2017. He did have a 5.2 WAR in 2014 after all....

[DaveW]

 

 

I guess my question for the keep Dozier camp would be, what is your roadmap for building a competent rotation?

I know we have prospects that we are high on. But we have so many of these guys that we have counted on in the past. We can't possibly hope to move from here to a good rotation on that alone. I am all ears to see the roadmap. Maybe some would rather trade Buxton or Sano. I just want to see a plan.

Berrios

Santana

May

Gibson

 

That's the start to a decent rotation, all four of those guys at the very least could be #3's or high level #4's. If Hughes comes back strong, hell that's just one more option.

 

At that stage, you buy low on a guy like Shelby Miller, if he can figure it out, it pays off in spades, if not oh well.

 

Additionally you package Rosario (who can be a starting CF for a ton of teams) and some other pieces for a high upside pitcher as well. Just be patient and look for the next Cueto or Hamels type trade and make it happen.

 

The reality is that if Berrios can reach his potential in 2017 (or come close) and May can become a starter again, that gets us a long ways back on track to the road to respectability.

No more Deans, no more Santiagos, No more Pelfreys, No more Nolascos, no more Milones.

[jimmer]

 

 

'Better players peak earlier in their careers. While the general population peaks at age 27, the group of good players peak at either 25 or 26 years old.

 

Hall-of-famers don’t usually peak — instead, they plateau. From ages 24 to 30, their production is generally constant. From then on, it drops at a high rate.'

 

http://www.fangraphs...ar-hitters-age/

 

[DaveW]

 

 

I'd still trade Dozier before he turns into a pumpkin. THE TWINS NEED PITCHING!!!!!

What actual reasoning do you have behind Dozier turning into a pumpkin? He has 17.3 WAR over his last 4 seasons, and he is now just hitting his peak.

 

Do you have any thoughts on why/how he would "turn into a pumpkin"? Or is this just grasping at straws?

[jimmer]

 

Gibson is horrible and he'll be 29 going into the next season. Yeah, he'll be back and this time next year we'll be like, 'next year will be his breakout season'

 

[DaveW]

 

 

'Better players peak earlier in their careers. While the general population peaks at age 27, the group of good players peak at either 25 or 26 years old.

 

Hall-of-famers don’t usually peak — instead, they plateau. From ages 24 to 30, their production is generally constant. From then on, it drops at a high rate.'

 

http://www.fangraphs...ar-hitters-age/

Power seems to develop later on though, no?

As a

24 year old in the minors Dozier had 9 HR

25 year old Dozier had 8 HR

26 18 HR

27 23 HR

28 28 HR

29 40 HR?

 

Joe Bats for instance was a 13 HR type guy until he turned 29, and we all know what happened then... awesome power til his age 34 season (he has been banged up this year his age 35 season)

 

While most players do in fact peak at those ages that you mentioned, it should be noted that their have been plenty of "power" hitters who develop later and peak later.

[gunnarthor]

 

 

We just can't play this game of Berrios will figure it out.  Gonsalves will be up next year and won't struggle.  May will transition successfully to the pen (not to mention if they Twins will do that).  Hughes will come back from injury.  Ervin will be as good next year as he has been this year.    We need to add a few talented pitchers and then hope half of those things happen. 

 

I would move Dozier for the best pitching prospect and throw in I could find.  The best case would be the headliner is in AA or AAA.  After seeing what guys like Mannea and Dansby Swanson were traded for, two years of Dozier will fetch more than some think he would, IMO.

OK, but if you don't want to wait for Berrios to figure it out, why would you want to add more prospects?  We won't get a prospect better than Berrios back in a trade so if we don't want to rely on him, why would we want to rely on any prospect? 

[Linus]

I'm not really interested in any more middle of the rotation guys, if we can get a Johnny Cueto or better type, by all means trade dozier for them.

 

Anyone else? No thanks, let's hold onto our infielder with 40+ HR power.

This sums it up for me quite nicely.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Berrios

Santana

May

Gibson

 

That's the start to a decent rotation, all four of those guys at the very least could be #3's or high level #4's. If Hughes comes back strong, hell that's just one more option.

 

At that stage, you buy low on a guy like Shelby Miller, if he can figure it out, it pays off in spades, if not oh well.

 

Additionally you package Rosario (who can be a starting CF for a ton of teams) and some other pieces for a high upside pitcher as well. Just be patient and look for the next Cueto or Hamels type trade and make it happen.

 

The reality is that if Berrios can reach his potential in 2017 (or come close) and May can become a starter again, that gets us a long ways back on track to the road to respectability.

No more Deans, no more Santiagos, No more Pelfreys, No more Nolascos, no more Milones.

 

Berrios has been terrible so far.

Santana is a nice 3/sometimes 2.

Gibson is 29 and not good, no idea why, he should be.

May hasn't started a game in 18 months. He hasn't been healthy all year.

 

 

That does not look like a rotation I would expect to be even league average. 

[gunnarthor]

 

I guess my question for the keep Dozier camp would be, what is your roadmap for building a competent rotation?

I know we have prospects that we are high on. But we have so many of these guys that we have counted on in the past. We can't possibly hope to move from here to a good rotation on that alone. I am all ears to see the roadmap. Maybe some would rather trade Buxton or Sano. I just want to see a plan.

Part of it is going to be patience.  Berrios should be a big part of our future rotation.  I thought Gibson would be a good player this year but ... ugh.  But Berrios and Mejia (and Gonsalves) are going to struggle some. 

 

One other option for the new GM might be to try and fix our bullpen.  Our bullpen has thrown the most innings in the AL and giving up the most inherited runners (and has the highest IR score rate, too).  Burdi, Chagois, Melotakis, Meyer and May (and Jepsen and Perkins) all had pretty ****ty years so maybe the new GM spends money there since the FA starting market is so bad.

 

Additionally, the Twins could try and trade someone like Kepler (2.5 WAR already) instead of Dozier. 

 

Lastly, maybe a new catcher through FA would be better at pitch framing (I'm really not sure how important that is but a few of the FA catchers are supposed to be good at that). 

[Blackjack]

 

What actual reasoning do you have behind Dozier turning into a pumpkin? He has 17.3 WAR over his last 4 seasons, and he is now just hitting his peak.

 

Do you have any thoughts on why/how he would "turn into a pumpkin"? Or is this just grasping at straws?

Nope, just going off past history, a crappy second half last year, poor start this year. 

 

I don't care if he hits 40 HR's each of the next two years, without better pitching, we'll continue to see headlines like yesterday 'Dozier hits 3 HR's and Twins still lose by six'.  Thats fun, isn't it?? 

 

Trade him while he's hot and at peak value before he - possibly, maybe, probably, theoretically - use any term you want - goes cold again and isn't worth as much.

[DaveW]

 

Berrios has been terrible so far.

Santana is a nice 3/sometimes 2.

Gibson is 29 and not good, no idea why, he should be.

May hasn't started a game in 18 months. He hasn't been healthy all year.

 

 

That does not look like a rotation I would expect to be even league average. 

Berrios is 22 and dominated every level in the minors, he will be fine. He has shown flashes thus far in the majors, once he tightens it up a bit he could be a high impact player in 2017 (definitely for 2018-2022)
 

Santana, yeah as mentioned he is at least a #3 who has some nice stretches where he pitches like a #2.

 

Yeah, Gibby sucks this year, but has a track record, I think he can be a 4/5 at worst hopefully.

 

May- Total crapshoot, but the potential is there.

 

Hughes-If healthy, he is a #3 (or a #2 if he can regain what he did a couple years ago)

 

Duffey- Total crapshoot.

 

The key to me is finding ONE ace, somewhere, anywhere. Berrios/Santana can be the #2/#3 guys and the rest of the rotation is filled out with guys like May, Gibson, Hughes or Duffey etc.

 

 

[Vanimal46]

 

Berrios is 22 and dominated every level in the minors, he will be fine. He has shown flashes thus far in the majors, once he tightens it up a bit he could be a high impact player in 2017 (definitely for 2018-2022)
 

Santana, yeah as mentioned he is at least a #3 who has some nice stretches where he pitches like a #2.

 

Yeah, Gibby sucks this year, but has a track record, I think he can be a 4/5 at worst hopefully.

 

May- Total crapshoot, but the potential is there.

 

Hughes-If healthy, he is a #3 (or a #2 if he can regain what he did a couple years ago)

 

Duffey- Total crapshoot.

 

The key to me is finding ONE ace, somewhere, anywhere. Berrios/Santana can be the #2/#3 guys and the rest of the rotation is filled out with guys like May, Gibson, Hughes or Duffey etc.

Well yeah, and acquiring that ONE ace is going to take some talent to trade away. Dozier could be that guy to trade away. 

[Mike Sixel]

To be good, Berrios would need to shave what, 2+ runs off each start, and go for 1 more inning. Is that LIKELY to happen next year?

 

May and Duffey and ???? are hope, not a plan, imo.

 

Hughes? I'd not count on 1 inning from him.

 

Dozier is their best bet to get a guy that can help them when Gonsalves and Berrios and Buxton and Sano are also good, imo.

 

Rosario and a lower level SP prospect or two might also work, but then you are short an OF, and you've reduced your number of darts to throw at the SP board.....

[Mike Sixel]

BTW, I can understand the argument to keep him, he's awesome...I just like the other side of the coin as more likely to work out.

[RedBull34]

It just depends on the return. I'm not even sure who would be looking to add a second baseman. Most "good teams" are set at the position (Dodgers, maybe? Yankees?).

Mets

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'd still trade Dozier before he turns into a pumpkin.

What you really mean is:

 

"I'd still trade Dozier before he possibly turns back into a 3-4 WAR player, which is still very valuable and above average. But I don't really know if Dozier will turn back into a 3-4 WAR player in the near future or if he'll plateau in the 5-6 WAR range, as none of us have a crystal ball."

[gunnarthor]

 

Nope, just going off past history, a crappy second half last year, poor start this year. 

 

I don't care if he hits 40 HR's each of the next two years, without better pitching, we'll continue to see headlines like yesterday 'Dozier hits 3 HR's and Twins still lose by six'.  Thats fun, isn't it?? 

 

Trade him while he's hot and at peak value before he - possibly, maybe, probably, theoretically - use any term you want - goes cold again and isn't worth as much.

If you think he can't remain good, why would professional GMs?  If his perceived value is that of an average second baseman, he won't bring much back at all so the Twins are better off keeping him.

[Vanimal46]

 

What you really mean is:

 

"I'd still trade Dozier before he possibly turns back into a 3-4 WAR player, which is still very valuable and above average. But I don't really know if Dozier will turn back into a 3-4 WAR player in the near future or if he'll plateau in the 5-6 WAR range, as none of us have a crystal ball."

 

Yes. Dozier may be the most valuable trade chip the Twins have had since Chuck Knoblauch..... I would even have him higher on the value chart than Johan at the time. Since everyone and their grandmothers knew that the Twins had to trade Johan that off-season, or risk losing him in FA. 

Let's have some fun with the best trade piece the team has had since the Bill Clinton administration. 

[DaveW]

 

To be good, Berrios would need to shave what, 2+ runs off each start, and go for 1 more inning. Is that LIKELY to happen next year?

 

May and Duffey and ???? are hope, not a plan, imo.

 

Hughes? I'd not count on 1 inning from him.

 

Dozier is their best bet to get a guy that can help them when Gonsalves and Berrios and Buxton and Sano are also good, imo.

 

Rosario and a lower level SP prospect or two might also work, but then you are short an OF, and you've reduced your number of darts to throw at the SP board.....

Wait so you would rather trade Dozier then Rosario?

Rosario is redundant on this team, he is a solid CF, but we already have a CF, he doesn't hit enough to be a legit corner OF for us.

 

They need to be trading Rosario regardless IMO, you can always easily find a corner OF on the FA market, just go get Jay Bruce or someone.

[gocgo]

 

I'd still trade Dozier before he turns into a pumpkin. THE TWINS NEED PITCHING!!!!!

You are right, but trading Dozier for an average pitcher isn't what they need.  They need a front line starter.  Trading Dozier for a mid range guy would be absurd.

[Vanimal46]

 

They need to be trading Rosario regardless IMO, you can always easily find a corner OF on the FA market, just go get Jay Bruce or someone.

Based off this sentence, why would others give up talent for Rosario, a corner OF then? 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Wait so you would rather trade Dozier then Rosario?

Rosario is redundant on this team, he is a solid CF, but we already have a CF, he doesn't hit enough to be a legit corner OF for us.

 

They need to be trading Rosario regardless IMO, you can always easily find a corner OF on the FA market, just go get Jay Bruce or someone.

 

Trading Rosario, right now, doesn't move the needle much.  He's a handy guy to have on this team as a multi-dimensional fourth OF and starter in a pinch.  He won't net you much in a trade.

 

Dozier could net you value in a deal.  Dozier is approaching 30 and will be a player you absolutely, under no circumstances, extend when his deal expires.  He, as recently as 3 months ago, should have been hitting 7th or not at all in the lineup.  The next two years, if a team believes he can keep this up, would be highly valuable to a contender.  

 

Use that to improve the part of this team that has a bleak outlook next year.  It's the only trade chip we have that can actually move the needle for this team.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Wait so you would rather trade Dozier then Rosario?

Rosario is redundant on this team, he is a solid CF, but we already have a CF, he doesn't hit enough to be a legit corner OF for us.

 

They need to be trading Rosario regardless IMO, you can always easily find a corner OF on the FA market, just go get Jay Bruce or someone.

 

Well, Rosario isn't returning even close to the same package as Dozier. There is not another OF that can replace him like Polanco can Dozier (and if you read that to say Polanco is as good as Dozier, you aren't trying).  

 

If Rosario could return anything close to a AA SP prospect like Berrios or Gonsalves, I'd do that....but he's not close, not even in the ballpark. Also, no, you can't just go get a corner OF next year.

[markos]

 

If you think he can't remain good, why would professional GMs?  If his perceived value is that of an average second baseman, he won't bring much back at all so the Twins are better off keeping him.

This is an interesting problem with Dozier: How exactly are the professionals projecting this offensive outburst? From June 1, 2015 through May 31, 2016 he had a 84 wRC+. Since then he has had a 178 wRC+. How are teams going to balance those streaks. Will he be valued as a 6 WAR player like he is currently playing? Or just a 4 WAR player like his career average? And how will teams project his decline? He is turning 30, and while his defense has held steady so far, it wouldn't be shocking to see it start to slip over the next two seasons.

[tobi0040]

 

This is an interesting problem with Dozier: How exactly are the professionals projecting this offensive outburst? From June 1, 2015 through May 31, 2016 he had a 84 wRC+. Since then he has had a 178 wRC+. How are teams going to balance those streaks. Will he be valued as a 6 WAR player like he is currently playing? Or just a 4 WAR player like his career average? And how will teams project his decline? He is turning 30, and while his defense has held steady so far, it wouldn't be shocking to see it start to slip over the next two seasons.

 

I think teams will value him somewhere between the two.  But his salary is a steal given his production the last few years.  He provides a team that thinks they are on the cusp a huge asset at 2B with minimal salary commitment.

[tobi0040]

I am hoping to add some context as to how bad our pitching has been.   We have allowed 775 runs this year.   The Cubs have given up 462.  That is truly unbelievable.  The Indians lead the AL at 568.  The 5th best team in the AL is the Yankees at 592.  We would need to cut 183 runs to move up to top third in the AL.  That is a dramatic improvement.  I just don’t think we nibble around the edges and do that with say, trading Eddie Rosario.  Or Gibson having a bounce back year.  

 

To me Dozier has to be on his way out and that should be the first and not last move to address this issue.

[DJL44]

The Dodgers need a second baseman and a steady starting pitcher. Package Dozier and Santana and see if they can get Urias or DeLeon along with Austin Barnes. Take Yasiel Puig back in the trade and see if they will toss in a bounce-back candidate like Ryu or McCarthy.

 

The Royals (who gave up 10 of Dozier's dingers) could also use both Dozier and Santana but have less to deal in return.

 

[TheLeviathan]

I really dislike sitting here looking at depth charts online in September and deciding who does or does not have an opening at 2B or an interest in adding a talent like Dozier.

 

And even if there doesn't appear to be a logical landing place, it should change nothing about what the Twins try to do.  Whether they pull it off is another issue.