The Key to the Twins Offseason is....Brian Dozier?

[Brandon Warne]

I wrote an article about how the new GM -- whomever it is -- will have to decide what to do with Dozier right away:

 

http://coldomaha.com/2016/twins/the-key-to-the-twins-offseason-is-brian-dozier/

 

comments, discussion appreciated as always 

[Vanimal46]

Yep. I will continue to beat the drum to trade both Dozier and Erv this off-season. 

[beckmt]

I would want at least 1 top 50 player/pitcher(prefered) to give up Dozier.  That is plus whatever else he is worth.  Twins have a 2018 - 2019 timeframe and by that time Dozier will be in decline or gone after 2018.  If you cannot get a decent couple of pieces then pass and try and move him next summer.  But he should be moved with his very good contract for very good pieces in the next year.

[alarp33]

I would trade Dozier and Santana.  I have absolutely no idea what kind of value either hold.  Ian Kinsler brought back something like 6 years and $120 million Prince Fielder.... 

[mazeville]

Agree with the others.

 

The Twins are not contending next year. The new POBO will have to deal with that reality. And that means trading people like Brian Dozier and Ervin Santana. Dozier is likely the only player who could fetch a decent haul. Santana less so, but he's still at peak value. Well, he was at peak value at the trade deadline.

 

Heck, I'm not entirely sure there's anybody on that team I wouldn't consider trading at this point. A 100-loss team after a lengthy run of poor seasons should not get too picky. 

[Mike Sixel]

What the new FO does with Dozier and Santana(s) will, imo, tell us a lot about what they think about the team, and what their philosophy is on rebuilding and the value of "veteran presence". 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

'Veteran presence' has become a punch line but for Dozier I think it is a real asset. Maybe Suzuki but he's on his way out. Hughes Perkins Plouffe not so much--those guys best years are behind them imo. Dozier on the other hand I feel has a lot of production left.

 

Is the new MO to just trade our best players every year we fall out of contention?

[Kwak]

The Twins need to trade Dozier not just because they need so much help, not just because they aren't a contender, but because Dozier will become prohibitively expensive (Mauer the 2nd) consuming a gigantic portion of the team's payroll--plus--he may decide that he wants to play for a winner (which isn't the Twins). Treat Dozier just like Houston treated Hunter Pence--trade him for lots of promising young players. I am not doubting that Dozier can and will hit plenty of HRs three plus years from now (when he is in a new contract) like some posters. The Twins simply need so much help that it would be futile to retain him for marketing purposes. Winning (if there is enough talent) will provide all of the marketing needed.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Is the new MO to just trade our best players every year we fall out of contention?

 

I'm not sure why you phrased it that way, because that's not at all representative of the Twins situation. They didn't just "fall out of contention", they were never in the picture for contention (102-103 loss pace at the moment), they haven't been close to in the picture for 5 out of 6 seasons, and they won't be in the picture again next year if they don't get some serious improvement on the mound. Dozier is the best asset we have, and is a bit of a luxury as a slugging 2nd basemen who's going to be a free agent before this team turns around. We have other sluggers in the system, but we don't have a sure #1-#2 pitcher. How else do you propose to fill that gaping hole?

[gunnarthor]

It just depends on the return.  I'm not even sure who would be looking to add a second baseman.  Most "good teams" are set at the position (Dodgers, maybe? Yankees?).  

[birddog]

Agreed we are years from contention, so keeping guys like Dozier and Santana is a luxury you have to debate. I'm getting nervous about acquiring prospects since I'm not sure we really develop prospects in our system. So a Tehran-type--young, experienced with some success--instead of Class AA or younger kids who need developing would be a must. It must be a wow return. Still waiting for the time we add players like Dozier instead of giving them away in their prime.

[amjgt]

Since June 1

 

305/370/655

[alarp33]

 

'Veteran presence' has become a punch line but for Dozier I think it is a real asset. Maybe Suzuki but he's on his way out. Hughes Perkins Plouffe not so much--those guys best years are behind them imo. Dozier on the other hand I feel has a lot of production left.

Is the new MO to just trade our best players every year we fall out of contention?

 

Can't imagine how many losses there would be this season without Dozier's "veteran presence".... 

[70charger]

Can't imagine how many losses there would be this season without Dozier's "veteran presence"....

I can. It would be somewhat less than 163.

[d-mac]

I'm firmly in the trade Dozier and Santana camp too. I don't expect this team to be competitive until 2019-ish. 

[Blackjack]

I think 'veteran presence' is overrated.  Play your core players together for 4-5 years and the leaders of the group will emerge. The coaches on the team can fill in the blanks, thats what they are there for.

 

Trade Dozier, the Twins are losing 100 games WITH him. You need to get better players and he's your biggest poker chip. And its is a big game of chance. After Meyer, Berrios, May, etc. you wonder if they can find and develop pitchers but you have to try. The current crop isn't getting it done.

[jimmer]

 

I'm firmly in the trade Dozier and Santana camp too. I don't expect this team to be competitive until 2019-ish. 

Right around the time they use the freed up payroll being wasted on Mauer to sign a real Ace in FA!  :-)

[d-mac]

 

I think 'veteran presence' is overrated.  Play your core players together for 4-5 years and the leaders of the group will emerge. The coaches on the team can fill in the blanks, thats what they are there for.

 

Trade Dozier, the Twins are losing 100 games WITH him. You need to get better players and he's your biggest poker chip. And its is a big game of chance. After Meyer, Berrios, May, etc. you wonder if they can find and develop pitchers but you have to try. The current crop isn't getting it done.

 

Hopefully new player development personal and major league coaches will do a better job and developing pitching talent. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think this trade is a no brainer personally.  Not quite as sold on Erv being a no-brainer... but yeah, there are teams with needs at 2B that plan on contending.  Whether those teams are a good match, who knows.

[tobi0040]

He has absolutely everything you look for in a trade candidate.

 

Horrible team - check

 

Peak Value - 29 years old.  2 years left on a friendly deal.  Coming off a near .900 OPS and 6 WAR season.   Check.

 

Suitable Replacement - Check

 

A guy you don't want to re-sign starting at age 31 at $15M+ a season - check

 

Billy Beane kept the A's competitve for a decade by flipping guys like Dozier in this situation.  A good test for how bright out GM is will be what they do with Dozier.  It is fairly obvious for me.

[Rosterman]

This is where the new President of Baseball Operations and his/her General Manager have to make a hard decision.

 

What is the future lineup of the Twins. Like decisions that had.have to be made on Trevor Plouffe...is Brian Dozier in the long-range plans. Where will he be in 2019? Will he still be a Twin, then tear up his contract NOW and extend him. If he won't, then you have this winter and next summer to trade him. It's not about him becoming better and having career years elsewhere, It is what you feel you want or can pay for his talent.

 

You look at Polanco. If he is the real thing, he can still play shortstop for much of a season if you delay your Dozier move. But come 2018, will Gordon be the shortstop and Polanco at second? But that also changes the look of the team. You are giving up some solid offense (and speed) for defense and speed and putting balls in play and moving runners around. Where on the Twins field do you find/put a similar 25-30 homerun guy. Of course, after 2018 you can put him at first base, which is where most teams like such a guy. But at that point you will have only one more year of Park or Vargas will start getting expensive and we really don't know if he is a choice or not. You could find comfort in putting Sano there. But that is still two years off, and then you have third base where you also want some punch.

 

Even abck to the Gardy losing year, I have always shaken my head at the acak of a consistent lineup construction, of building a #1-9 lineup that compliments each other, plays consistently, and also having a bench that is more than a token catcher, a guy who can adequately field a bunch of positions, and a lame 4th outfielder.

 

You have to look at Dozier as beyond 2018. If you keep him, you extend him, and then what to do with the depth you have at these positions. Like Ervin Santana, who also has an off-season and mid-season of trade value, you have to ask if him doing the same as he is doing this year is worth $13 million to a team that might still have growing spurts, or is it better to rid yourself of the expense (--NOTE: that is the toughie, just because you save money in 2017 doesn't mean the 55% Twins will ever overspend in anotehr season --) and get more players to try and fill holes.

 

Right now, I look at the 2018 Twins as being Garver, Mauer, Polanco, Gordon, Sano, Kepler, Buxton, Rosario. Looks pretty good. I see Walker or Palka on the bench with perhaps Turrner. I'm not sure who the other bodies in the system will be for the bench. I sadly don't see a need for Park and Vargas at this point, although one of their bats would be nice, unless we get a slugger to play third and permanently move Sano. I kinda like that offense look, with perhaps Palka or Walker giving you that punch with the bat you lose from moving Dozier. In some ways, Mauer is the weak link going into 2017 where we have too many DH/!B/BENCH options, but maybe not. Yet he probably becomes a problem going out from 2018.

 

But back to the point. Like Plouffe now. If we wanted to keep Plouffe, we sign him to a long-term contract. He is not worth third year arbitration and a free agent walk and the fact that we blew any opportunity to get something for him last mid-season and off-season, and he was injured during this deadline, is the killer (same could happen to Dozier). I like Plouffe. I would almost rather have him in the lineup next year and in 2018 than...Joe....and Joe IS still a great and quality player lost in the mess of the Minnesota Twins. But it is gambles that you take as a general manager. You sign guys, you move them when they have the most worth and who cares if they have a breakout season because you were never going to pay them more down the line. I mean, Torii Hunter. We could've kept Torii for $90 million but decided that he wasn't ultimately worth it at that time. We could've extended Johann Santana for $120 million and probably could've, but didn't feel it was keeping in the direction of the team. Even going back to Corey Koskie days (would he have concussed in Minnesota?). Or investing in Willigham instead of Cuddyer. All decisions that are hard, sometimes painful, but looked at with a longer-term plan. In the case of Cuddyer AND Willingham AND even Delmon Young, the Twins needed to trade these guys at their highest worth and didn't. That's on the front office. Feeling David Ortiz was not worth the arbitration salary he would demand and sticking with the cheaper and more versatile (sic) Matt LeCroy is on the front office. It's the direction gamble every baseball team takes.

 

Players no longer work for a team anymore, it seems. They work for Major League Baseball, kinda like fantasy leagues where you can add or drop a player on a whim depending on your budget, money in your coffers and what is available. At some point, you can't afford to drop someone (heck, the Yankees have cut A-Rod and the Rangers Hamilton). Some guys you can't afford, but maybe you can trade for them for a moment. The best players do try to choose a winner that will also give them a payday. Many players are glad to get the multi-year secure salary that pays be they good or okay. Some are forced to overperform to scheme to get a bigger payday, and some just flat out go bad and struggle but still, because of the skill level and they still are better than most, get a decent payday way beyond their worth.

 

Dozier and Santana are NOW veteran presences on the team. They are skilled players. they are both commanding more money that the majority of the roster combined. They both should be good in 2017. Still pulling their weight in 2018. Maybe even solid in 2019 and 2020. But can they be replaced by your system now or in the future? Can you get someone ALMOST as good for equal or less pay at a younger age that will POSSIBLY be as good or better? Do you jsut keep them around because Target Field NOW gives you the luxury of keeping your free agents, and having management that feels they don't HAVE to play if they aren't contributing?

 

Exciting times in Twins land. All starts with whom they hire and who the whom hires and how the talent in the organization is ultimately evaluated and composed into a working team.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Can't imagine how many losses there would be this season without Dozier's "veteran presence"....

 

I get it. Dozier led this team to a 100-loss season. I think that's a little too simplistic. If the goal is to put the best combination of the best players on the field, Dozier needs to stay. If all he becomes as tobi said is a $15-20 million dollar home run hitter for a few more years, I think the Twins should hold on to that.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I get it. Dozier led this team to a 100-loss season. I think that's a little too simplistic. If the goal is to put the best combination of the best players on the field, Dozier needs to stay. If all he becomes as tobi said is a $15-20 million dollar home run hitter for a few more years, I think the Twins should hold on to that.

 

and where do the other 20+ players come from, if you won't trade for more of them?

[Taildragger8791]

 

I get it. Dozier led this team to a 100-loss season. I think that's a little too simplistic. If the goal is to put the best combination of the best players on the field, Dozier needs to stay. If all he becomes as tobi said is a $15-20 million dollar home run hitter for a few more years, I think the Twins should hold on to that.

 

That's another mischaracterization of the situation. The implication wasn't that Dozier led to the 100+ loss season, it's that even as good as he is this is still a 100-loss team. That's how far from contention they are. They need multiple players who can contribute within a couple years and into the future. They ideally could trade Dozier to get those players, while freeing up that $15-$20 million to go out and reinforce an underperforming position where we don't have in-house solutions (SP, C, maybe SS/3B down the road).

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

and where do the other 20+ players come from, if you won't trade for more of them?

The Twins have a starting 9 mostly in place though I admit if Dozier can bring back good pitching, you do it. There's just so much more that needs to be done with this organization's approach to pitching before any hypothetical Dozier trade occurs. I assume most people who want a Dozier trade also feel that way but maybe not.

[gunnarthor]

 

That's another mischaracterization of the situation. The implication wasn't that Dozier led to the 100+ loss season, it's that even as good as he is this is still a 100-loss team. That's how far from contention they are. They need multiple players who can contribute within a couple years and into the future. They ideally could trade Dozier to get those players, while freeing up that $15-$20 million to go out and reinforce an underperforming position where we don't have in-house solutions (SP, C, maybe SS/3B down the road).

We might trade Dozier but, again, he's not going to bring much back.  Most teams are set at second base. Those that aren't and have a budget can try and nab Neil Walker in free agency instead of giving up prospects.  

 

He might be moved but, frankly, much of next years team will be the same.  The offense is more or less in place.  I think the new GM will nab a cheap starter off the FA list and spend a lot more on the bullpen but the Twins aren't going to be good until the pitching is good.  And that means the Twins need Gibson, Berrios, Hughes, May and Santiago to pitch better.  There isn't going to be a magic bullet to fix that and I doubt that Dozier could bring back something that improves it.  

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

That's another mischaracterization of the situation. The implication wasn't that Dozier led to the 100+ loss season, it's that even as good as he is this is still a 100-loss team. That's how far from contention they are. They need multiple players who can contribute within a couple years and into the future. They ideally could trade Dozier to get those players, while freeing up that $15-$20 million to go out and reinforce an underperforming position where we don't have in-house solutions (SP, C, maybe SS/3B down the road).

Just answered Mike and I think we are in somewhat agreement on Dozier. But I disagree about contending. Since 2012 we are in the era of 2-wildcard teams per league, and you can't just punt a season anymore just because you're not the best team in the division. A run of dominance is several years away (I think that's what some people mean when they say "contending"), but a wildcard berth is right there for the taking every season for every team. It's not as sexy as the run of division titles in the early 2000s but it still gets the job done if you win that wildcard game.

[Taildragger8791]

 

The Twins have a starting 9 mostly in place though I admit if Dozier can bring back good pitching, you do it. There's just so much more that needs to be done with this organization's approach to pitching before any hypothetical Dozier trade occurs. I assume most people who want a Dozier trade also feel that way but maybe not.

 

 

We might trade Dozier but, again, he's not going to bring much back.  Most teams are set at second base. Those that aren't and have a budget can try and nab Neil Walker in free agency instead of giving up prospects.  

 

He might be moved but, frankly, much of next years team will be the same.  The offense is more or less in place.  I think the new GM will nab a cheap starter off the FA list and spend a lot more on the bullpen but the Twins aren't going to be good until the pitching is good.  And that means the Twins need Gibson, Berrios, Hughes, May and Santiago to pitch better.  There isn't going to be a magic bullet to fix that and I doubt that Dozier could bring back something that improves it.  

 

This is where I agree, if Dozier can't get the return we think he's worth then we have to keep him. And I also agree that this staff doesn't have many people's trust to develop the young pitchers we may get in return. But if they can get the right players then they should still pull the trigger and try. This team has a decent offense but their ceiling is severely limited by the rotation.

 

I don't think expecting the existing guys to "just do better" is realistic. They've mostly proven who they are at this point and they're all mediocre MLB starters except for Santana and maybe Berrios (hopefully). If we go into next year with the same staff it's likely going to be another miserable season of up and down stretches, where the 'up' is limited to competent-but-not-great and the down is as low as blown-up-by-5th-inning. Few offenses can out-hit slumps that deep.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Just answered Mike and I think we are in somewhat agreement on Dozier. But I disagree about contending. Since 2012 we are in the era of 2-wildcard teams per league, and you can't just punt a season anymore just because you're not the best team in the division. A run of dominance is several years away (I think that's what some people mean when they say "contending"), but a wildcard berth is right there for the taking every season for every team. It's not as sexy as the run of division titles in the early 2000s but it still gets the job done if you win that wildcard game.

 

I guess that's part of why we're on different pages. I'm hoping this team can build for a run of dominance instead of holding on for hopes of sneaking into a 2nd wildcard spot and then getting smashed in the playoffs like we did through the mid 2000's. Those division wins feel tarnished when you look at how weak the division was and how thoroughly outclassed they were in the posteason.

[Primetime82]

TRADE HIM FOR YOUNG PITCHING! EITHER A YOUNG PROVEN PITCHER OR TOP 25 PITCHING PROSPECT AND MORE. Sorry for the caps....