Please keep trades to a minimum, Twins

[mazeville]

As the Twins have struggled this year, I wanted them to start trading assets for younger players who could bolster areas of weakness, like catcher and starting pitcher. And then the Twins fired GM Terry Ryan and replaced him with an interim in Rob Antony. And now I want them to cool the jets.

 

Think about this: Antony likely has little chance at getting the permanent job. So do you really want him dealing some of the team's most tradable players? Especially given the team's recent record in trades and free agent signings? Not really.

 

I'm not saying he'd do a bad job. I am saying that the biggest trades should be made by the person who has the permanent job. Let that person do the team building.

 

That means that players such as Brian Dozier and Ervin Santana should not be traded now, but this offseason when the new GM is allegedly in place. Dozier, in particular, is a better offseason trade candidate than he is a deadline candidate given that no contending teams need a second baseman. 

 

If the team is correct and there aren't many pitchers of Santana's quality available on the free agent market this offseason, then perhaps the best option is to wait until the offseason, anyway, when more teams -- not just contenders -- are hoping to bolster their starting staffs.

 

Neither, of course, may generate all that much. But outside of young players like Miguel Sano they would attract the most return. And I'd rather the new GM trade them.

 

My hope is that Antony keeps the trades relatively minor. Find a taker for Fernando Abad. Look at what kind of return Eduardo Nunez could fetch. Trade Brandon Kintzler. Please trade Kurt Suzuki while you can get something back. But leave the big guys on the team.

[jimmer]

I don't think you have much to worry about. This team has never been much of a player in trade deadline deals. Likely wouldn't have been under Ryan and likely won't be under Antony. Wouldn't shock me in the least to see zero action, to be honest.

 

But, I did find it funny you suggested to keep trading to a minimum while, at the same time, suggested we trade four players.  For this team to trade four players, that'd be like the biggest trade deadline action we've seen for this team in a very, very long time.

[Everyday Eddy]

If someone panics and offers a top 100 prospect for Santana, it should be done.    His value will never be higher

[mazeville]

 

If someone panics and offers a top 100 prospect for Santana, it should be done.    His value will never be higher

 

If someone offers the Twins a Top 100 prospect than yes. But I don't agree that his value will "never be higher" than it is now. It'll be just as high this offseason when more teams are looking for pitching. 

[Everyday Eddy]

Agree to disagree then.    Much more likely in my opinion to get a desperation offer from a pitching starved contender than a team looking for offseason help where there's way more options available.

[jimmer]

 

If someone offers the Twins a Top 100 prospect than yes. But I don't agree that his value will "never be higher" than it is now. It'll be just as high this offseason when more teams are looking for pitching. 

 

Yeah, every team will be looking at every team (and FA) for pitching. The market will be flooded.  Right now contenders are looking for starting pitching to push for the playoffs and Santana is under-paid and under control for two more years.  Contending teams have the urgency to get a trade done now for the push, an urgency not found in the offseason. Additionally, only some teams are selling.  Makes the supply less., That is why it's described as Deadline Premium Costs. 

 

[mazeville]

 

Yeah, every team will be looking at every team (and FA) for pitching. The market will be flooded.  Right now contenders are looking for starting pitching to push for the playoffs and Santana is under-paid and under control for two more years.  Contending teams have the urgency to get a trade done now for the push, an urgency not found in the offseason. Additionally, only some teams are selling.  Makes the supply less., That is why it's described as Deadline Premium Costs. 

 

Most years, yes. But have you taken a look at the pitchers who will be free agents this offseason?

 

Rob Antony is right - it's a weak market for starting pitchers this offseason. 

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/making-sense-of-wasteland-that-is-now-baseballs-hot-stove-pitching-market/

 

With this the case, the market for Santana should be just as good this offseason as it is right now.

[jimmer]

 

Most years, yes. But have you taken a look at the pitchers who will be free agents this offseason?

 

Rob Antony is right - it's a weak market for starting pitchers this offseason. 

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/making-sense-of-wasteland-that-is-now-baseballs-hot-stove-pitching-market/

 

With this the case, the market for Santana should be just as good this offseason as it is right now.

It may be a weak market for FA pitchers, but the trade market will be larger.  No desperation moves by teams either. Trade market is at it's peak in the offseason as opposed to the deadline, the deadline having many teams that aren't buyer and many teams aren't seller.

 

Anyway, my bet is he doesn't trade him at the trade deadline OR in the offseason.

[Everyday Eddy]

 

Most years, yes. But have you taken a look at the pitchers who will be free agents this offseason?

 

Rob Antony is right - it's a weak market for starting pitchers this offseason. 

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/making-sense-of-wasteland-that-is-now-baseballs-hot-stove-pitching-market/

 

With this the case, the market for Santana should be just as good this offseason as it is right now.

Ok so it's a weak FA market.    Wouldn't that be more incentive for other teams to try and trade for a red hot, cost-controlled pitcher that could be helpful down the stretch and then be useful in the back of the rotation for the next couple seasons?

[jorgenswest]

Teams feel like they have many more options in the winter. The perceived roster is healthier. The prospect from AAA is untarnished.

 

A 33 year old pitcher with a poorer second half or injury loses value. There is too much question about whether they would bounce back. If the Twins keep Santana, they gamble that does not happen. I would trade him and take best offer.

 

In general, I do agree about keeping the team mostly in tact for the new GM. Plouffe, Suzuki, Nolasco, Santana, Kintzler and Abad would be exceptions.

[jimmer]

 

Ok so it's a weak FA market.    Wouldn't that be more incentive for other teams to try and trade for a red hot, cost-controlled pitcher that could be helpful down the stretch and then be useful in the back of the rotation for the next couple seasons?

A team like Baltimore would be a great fit right now.

[Everyday Eddy]

 

A team like Baltimore would be a great fit right now.

Yep, could be pitching tonight against the Twins instead of Ubaldo

[Tomj14]

I don't understand the rush to trade Santana and Dozier. If it is for the money do you really expect the twins are going to go out and spend that money and if they do how much of an upgrade will it be? If it is for prospects I get that, you can never have enough, but don't we have that now, we have so many we can't find a place for them (Outfield).

If the hitters progress next year and do what we hope/expect, won't we be in the situation next year were we are looking for a veteran hitter and a starting pitcher? 

If Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Sano, Park/Vargas do what we hope, Mauer stays Mauer, and Escobar is solid and we get anything out of catcher we have more than enough to contend for the central regardless of who is playing 2nd, but if it is Polanco and he is struggling we (fans) will be demanding we go out and get a 2nd baseman.  Which will probably cost more than we get for Dozier.

But we have nothing for starting pitchers next year, Gibson and rookie Berrios. Maybe Duffy figures it out and maybe May becomes a starter (I don't see it) and that is it Rick, Tommy and Phil should be gone by then. So we are going to have to get a couple of starters from a terrible FA pool, or hope and pray rookies can do it, how often does that work. But if you add Santana to that list is doesn't look great but it doesn't look impossible either. If the team is doing well, you can trade from some of our depth in the mirrors for another starter next year.

[lukeduke1980]

I guess I agree, get what you can get for veterans like Abad and Kintzler, but let the next guy evaluate guys like Gibson, Dozier, and anyone young and controllable.

[mazeville]

 

Ok so it's a weak FA market.    Wouldn't that be more incentive for other teams to try and trade for a red hot, cost-controlled pitcher that could be helpful down the stretch and then be useful in the back of the rotation for the next couple seasons?

 

Maybe. But if you have more people potentially bidding on the pitcher then that competition will yield higher bids. And he's still cost controlled for multiple seasons. 

 

But my main point is this: Do you want Rob Antony to make that trade? Do you? Wouldn't you rather have the person who will be in the permanent job do this deal? Why do you want the previous regime to collect the talent? 

 

This leadership has had its chance. I want the new regime to do the roster construction.

[mazeville]

 

It may be a weak market for FA pitchers, but the trade market will be larger.  No desperation moves by teams either. Trade market is at it's peak in the offseason as opposed to the deadline, the deadline having many teams that aren't buyer and many teams aren't seller.

 

Anyway, my bet is he doesn't trade him at the trade deadline OR in the offseason.

 

Still don't agree. More teams bidding to trade for your starting pitcher naturally increases the price through simple supply-demand rules. 

 

And in any event, my main point is this: I'd rather have a new GM make this trade than the interim GM. 

[ghegge]

 

Yep, could be pitching tonight against the Twins instead of Ubaldo

I think if, and that's a big if, we shell Ubaldo tonight that might just push the Orioles to make a deal, with someone at least

[Champuckett]

It's looking more and more like you may get your wish as we inch closer to the trade deadline.

 

Comments from Rob Antony about specific players so far makes them appear in conservative mode still.  Instructions from the owners?  Unless he whips something up at literally the last second, it doesn't seem likely anything is going to happen.  Nunez is probably our #1 trade option and everything else other teams are not willing to trade much for.

[mazeville]

 

But, I did find it funny you suggested to keep trading to a minimum while, at the same time, suggested we trade four players.  For this team to trade four players, that'd be like the biggest trade deadline action we've seen for this team in a very, very long time.

 

True, but they're not major assets. And I said they should look at trading them. In reality they should only trade a couple of those names.

 

Which in and of itself would be the biggest trade deadline action in years ...

[jimmer]

 

Still don't agree. More teams bidding to trade for your starting pitcher naturally increases the price through simple supply-demand rules. 

 

And in any event, my main point is this: I'd rather have a new GM make this trade than the interim GM. 

Yeah, my whole adult work-life has been about Supply and Demand. 

 

The supply is flooded when there is no urgency and when every avenue is open to acquire arms. Not only is FA open in the offseason (though weak is still an avenue to acquire players) there's also the fact that EVERY team is willing to deal with EVERY team. It won't just be a handful of playoff teams looking for a few decent  established starters from non-contenders for a playoff push. It will be where the season is over, urgency is over for playoff push, and everybody is looking at every team to see what they can get.  Yes, more teams may be looking for pitchers, but there will be WAY more pitchers available to get too.

 

So, yeah, I don't buy your premise that what you are saying is simple supply-demand rules.  There's a reason the experts use the term Deadline Premium Prices in regards to team trading at the deadline time frame. Sellers get more at the trade deadline than in offseason. Sense of urgency to push for the playoffs with those teams looking to only a few teams in sell mode that have players that can help.

 

Again, doesn't matter. No need to continue this debate. Believe what you want. Like I said before, he's likely not getting traded this offseason or this trade deadline, so the debate is moot.

[Rosterman]

 

Teams feel like they have many more options in the winter. The perceived roster is healthier. The prospect from AAA is untarnished.

A 33 year old pitcher with a poorer second half or injury loses value. There is too much question about whether they would bounce back. If the Twins keep Santana, they gamble that does not happen. I would trade him and take best offer.

In general, I do agree about keeping the team mostly in tact for the new GM. Plouffe, Suzuki, Nolasco, Santana, Kintzler and Abad would be exceptions.

I agree totally with this. You have to worry about how Santana pitches from here to the end of the season. You have to worry about an injury loss. Then you are really stuck. Right now, you jsut cringe everytime you give a tradable player the ball or an at bat until the deadline passes.

 

Like Suzuki, the last thing you needed was for him to go on the DL, which he didn't. He bounced right back with a home run.

 

Often times, a player's value is higher at the trade deadline as x-amount of players aren't available for trade, especially if you are looking for more minor league depth. Once the season ends, ALL the contending teams suddenly look at their staffs, salaries they would jettison, players to call up. You have x-amount put on waivers, x-amount thrown into free agency and tons of prospects that need roster protection for the future.

 

This is where long-range planning happens. Where does Santana fit into the picture...today...regarding 2017 and 2018 vs. possible replacement by a mid-level free-agent (wait, isn't that Santana) or working prospects.

 

I ringed when I heard Anthony say he thinks the team will compete in 2017. Yes, that is the line you take. And the Twins always throw that "competitive" word out there...that they just try to put a team on the field that they think is competitive within the division. We never hear that we are putting together a team will put everyone else into the rearview mirror.

 

What I am more worried about are the assets that aren't tradable. That we have to troll out there next season (Nolasco, Hughes, Perkins, Mauer) that ALL can be upgraded for less in the off-season, or replaced totally in the long-run sooner rather than never.

 

The team made some mistakes (Park), they have some prospects that are unknown and will probably NOT happen (Walker, Meyer), they have a good solid player who is too expensive (Plouffe) and not worth arbitration and is injured so he pretty much destroyed his value today and, looking forward, not worth arbitration, so the Twins will send him apcking with no return for a top prospect they drafted who played well and will be a welcomed addition to any team...albeit not at $10 million a year.

 

They do need to get a General Manager before the off-season gets underway so he can evaluate ALL the talent and start packaging blocked prospects or minor league depth. The Twins will have another GOOD draft this season. 

 

But it is still interesting to monitor drafts. The Twins signed 31 players (so far) this year. 24 players remain in the system from 2015. 21 from 2014. 13 from each of 2013 and 2012. Only 6 remain from each of 2011 and 2010. Interestingly, another 10 players from the 2011 draft are actually still playing with other teams.

 

I don't see a new general manager doing ANYTHING in the free agent marketplace unless the Twins do shed salary, and I don't see them giving away monies, so the Twins will be eating salary (anyways) by keeping high priced players somewhere, blocking others. That is the one mindset that I do find confusing. In baseball, you do cut the losses and move on. You have to plan for that in the scheme of things. You try and put the best team possible on the field. If you don't, the monetary stream suffers because you are not winning games with players that should be considered losses, and people don't come and spend.

 

And that is the marketing of the brand, working the player personal aspects of operations with the business side. The Brand is important. The players you pay to increase the recognition of that Brand (and Mauer WAS the one but no longer) add to that. You can do it with single season splashes (Jack Morris comes to mind), returning vet (Torii Hunter - I mean, WAS he really worth what they paid - yes he was because he got the team recognition and did put butts in the seats and was a good influence and didn't totally hog time in play). 

 

That is what a new general manager ahs to think about. Putting a solid team on the field and keeping it going and refreshed...not just running something until the battery dies. Recognizing what the team might look like next season and 3-4 seasons from now. Having an open checkbook and the ability to flush money down the toilet if it happens...and it does in this sport (I mean, look what you are paying Hughes and Perkins this season to do basically nothing,,,at least they should be out there selling the brand while recovering from their injuries).

 

That's something else I'm seeing more and more of. We are now leagues of baseball players playing a game for team names. But I'm not seeing as much creating and staying a team (money does that) and not seeing players doing more than just playing the game (which, in reality, is maybe all they have to do...put up numbers on the field, maybe do some endorsements, sign stickers put on baseball cards). The Twins have long been one of the better teams for player access, their community fund seems to be out there, they have a solid alumni association which continues to do stuff...but part of branding the team is the players and getting them out in the community, our to businesses, out to schools, besides schilling products on the airwaves. Doing the talk shows, working the baselines before batting practice, giving selfie opportunities...and not putting a pricetag on everything.

 

But first, you have to have players you want to see and be seen with.

 

 

 

 

[mazeville]

 

It's looking more and more like you may get your wish as we inch closer to the trade deadline.

 

Comments from Rob Antony about specific players so far makes them appear in conservative mode still.  Instructions from the owners?  Unless he whips something up at literally the last second, it doesn't seem likely anything is going to happen.  Nunez is probably our #1 trade option and everything else other teams are not willing to trade much for.

 

Let me make this clear: I hate the overly conservative nature of the Twins. My biggest - by far my biggest - request in a new GM is that he (or she) is aggressive, in the Dave Dombrowski mode.

 

I just don't want Antony to make most of these deals. I listed four players largely because they'd all generally fetch lower-end prospects.

[mazeville]

 

Yeah, my whole adult work-life has been about Supply and Demand. 

 

The supply is flooded when there is no urgency and when every avenue is open to acquire arms. Not only is FA open in the offseason (though weak is still an avenue to acquire players) there's also the fact that EVERY team is willing to deal with EVERY team. It won't just be a handful of playoff teams looking for a few decent pitchers established starter from non-contenders for a playoff push. It will be where the season is over, and everybody is looking at every team to see what they can get.  More teams may be looking for pitchers, but there will be way more pitchers available to get too.

 

So, yeah, I don't buy your premise that what you are saying is simple supply-demand rules.  there's a reason the experts use the term Deadline Premium Prices.  Sense of urgency to push for the playoffs with those teams looking to only a few teams in sell mode that have players that can help.

 

Again, doesn't matter.  like I said before, he's not getting traded this offseason or this trade deadline.

 

And so is my adult life. I know quite a bit about supply and demand.

 

Did you look at the link I posted above or did you not bother? The upcoming free agent market is not very good. That means there WILL be demand for Santana this offseason.

 

REGARDLESS, my point is that there will be enough demand for Santana this offseason that it would be much better to wait and let the new guy trade him rather than the guy who will not be in GM seat next year, and who is part of a regime that put us into this mess.

 

I simply no longer trust these guys to make these deals. Period. And I'd rather the new regime look at the market, look at the roster, look at our assets, and start making moves. 

 

That means the team should focus only on the lower-end assets, and not at the bigger ones. 

[Danchat]

My guess is that the only guy who gets traded during the deadline is Abad. The Twins don't seem that interested in moving guys, so maybe just 1 or 2 will go.

[Everyday Eddy]

 

And so is my adult life. I know quite a bit about supply and demand.

 

Did you look at the link I posted above or did you not bother? The upcoming free agent market is not very good. That means there WILL be demand for Santana this offseason.

 

REGARDLESS, my point is that there will be enough demand for Santana this offseason that it would be much better to wait and let the new guy trade him rather than the guy who will not be in GM seat next year, and who is part of a regime that put us into this mess.

 

I simply no longer trust these guys to make these deals. Period. And I'd rather the new regime look at the market, look at the roster, look at our assets, and start making moves. 

 

That means the team should focus only on the lower-end assets, and not at the bigger ones. 

You are banking on Santana staying desirable to other teams.    He could revert back to being garbage or get hurt, and then we are stuck with another over the hill pitcher.    The Twins rarely trade assets for prospects so I'm open to Antony taking a shot at it

[Tomj14]

This is where long-range planning happens. Where does Santana fit into the picture...today...regarding 2017 and 2018 vs. possible replacement by a mid-level free-agent (wait, isn't that Santana) or working prospects.

 

Well if you plan on contending in 2017 he is your 1 or 2 and if things start out bad next year he will have just as much value if he is pitching decent with less money on the books and if he isn't just more wasted money, not my money and in my opinion they have not shown they spend saved money well.

 

If you trade Santana and don't do anything to get better starting pitchers than him next year, Target field will be empty because they would be showing it is another wasted year.

Gibson, Berrios, May, Duffy and Wheeler (Ricky/Tommy or Phil) are not putting butts in the seats.

Saying all this, if they could package him with Meyer and Polanco and bring somebody back that close to the big leagues I would be for it, but getting a single A pitcher that is years away isn't worth it.

[Dantes929]

Polanco was a #66 ranked prospect but I wouldn't trade Dozier or Santana for him.    Santana is a a good pitcher and i do not want to try getting his equivalent on the FA market next year.    Even in my perfect rose colored world next year we have Berrios, Gibson, Duffey, May and ?....    Santana fits in very nicely.   He may not be great but he is very good and not someone to give up at perceived fair value.   The whole idea of contenders looking for pitchers at the deadline is that they will over pay.    IMO, it needs to be a top 50 major league ready guy in a position of need which is catcher.    Top 100 is ok if it comes with a good bullpen arm to replace May.  "Santana is valuable as an actual player.    If we get great value for him as a trade piece fine but I am fine with him sticking around.

[Mike Sixel]

 

This is where long-range planning happens. Where does Santana fit into the picture...today...regarding 2017 and 2018 vs. possible replacement by a mid-level free-agent (wait, isn't that Santana) or working prospects.

 

Well if you plan on contending in 2017 he is your 1 or 2 and if things start out bad next year he will have just as much value if he is pitching decent with less money on the books and if he isn't just more wasted money, not my money and in my opinion they have not shown they spend saved money well.

 

If you trade Santana and don't do anything to get better starting pitchers than him next year, Target field will be empty because they would be showing it is another wasted year.

Gibson, Berrios, May, Duffy and Wheeler (Ricky/Tommy or Phil) are not putting butts in the seats.

Saying all this, if they could package him with Meyer and Polanco and bring somebody back that close to the big leagues I would be for it, but getting a single A pitcher that is years away isn't worth it.

 

Attendance is pretty much locked in for next year based on this year's results. It has virtually nothing ot do with the going in roster. There is plenty of research on the internet on this. Even if you thought it mattered.....is Ervin Santana putting butts in seats?

 

welcome to the site, keep posting!

[mazeville]

 

This is where long-range planning happens. Where does Santana fit into the picture...today...regarding 2017 and 2018 vs. possible replacement by a mid-level free-agent (wait, isn't that Santana) or working prospects.

 

Well if you plan on contending in 2017 he is your 1 or 2 and if things start out bad next year he will have just as much value if he is pitching decent with less money on the books and if he isn't just more wasted money, not my money and in my opinion they have not shown they spend saved money well.

 

If you trade Santana and don't do anything to get better starting pitchers than him next year, Target field will be empty because they would be showing it is another wasted year.

Gibson, Berrios, May, Duffy and Wheeler (Ricky/Tommy or Phil) are not putting butts in the seats.

Saying all this, if they could package him with Meyer and Polanco and bring somebody back that close to the big leagues I would be for it, but getting a single A pitcher that is years away isn't worth it.

 

This is another reason I want the new GM to analyze Santana.

 

I want someone to come here, look at the roster, and make decisions on what to do. I don't think this team can be competitive next year, and believe Santana should indeed be traded, but it's possible that the new GM disagrees.

[dxpavelka]

 

I don't understand the rush to trade Santana and Dozier. If it is for the money do you really expect the twins are going to go out and spend that money and if they do how much of an upgrade will it be? If it is for prospects I get that, you can never have enough, but don't we have that now, we have so many we can't find a place for them (Outfield).

If the hitters progress next year and do what we hope/expect, won't we be in the situation next year were we are looking for a veteran hitter and a starting pitcher? 

If Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Sano, Park/Vargas do what we hope, Mauer stays Mauer, and Escobar is solid and we get anything out of catcher we have more than enough to contend for the central regardless of who is playing 2nd, but if it is Polanco and he is struggling we (fans) will be demanding we go out and get a 2nd baseman.  Which will probably cost more than we get for Dozier.

But we have nothing for starting pitchers next year, Gibson and rookie Berrios. Maybe Duffy figures it out and maybe May becomes a starter (I don't see it) and that is it Rick, Tommy and Phil should be gone by then. So we are going to have to get a couple of starters from a terrible FA pool, or hope and pray rookies can do it, how often does that work. But if you add Santana to that list is doesn't look great but it doesn't look impossible either. If the team is doing well, you can trade from some of our depth in the mirrors for another starter next year.

Counting his .195 mark this month, June was the only month in the last seven that Dozier has hit higher than .216.  I don't understand the rush to keep him.