Santana trade rumors

[Willihammer]

 

I don't know if any amount of shopping or proactive-ness would make a "hot" July trade market exist for Santana.  How many older mid-rotation pitchers with future commitments get moved in July, much less for a top return?  Antony is no miracle worker.

Hamels springs to mind. I know he's a better pitcher but was comparable in age and salary on a $/War basis. The Phills threw in a bunch of cash and got 6 prospects back including Eickhoff.

 

It doesn't happen everyday, for sure. It takes some creativity. Had the Phills GM sat by the phone waiting for it to ring and be "wowed" by an offer, like Antony's doing, that trade wouldn't have happened.

[nicksaviking]

I'm not against trading Santana, but I'd hate to make a move and then when the new GM gets here we all see that the move doesn't really fit with the direction the new guy or gal has in mind. If there's a no-brainer offer take it, if there's not, trade or don't trade Santana when the new GM gets to town.

 

Because I'm still assuming that those in favor of trading Santana are also in favor of a new GM that's not Anthony. If you don't want him here next year but you still really want him to make a trade now, it's going to be pretty hard to complain if that trade is disappointing now or in the future.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm not against trading Santana, but I'd hate to make a move and then when the new GM gets here we all see that the move doesn't really fit with the direction the new guy or gal has in mind. If there's a no-brainer offer take it, if there's not, trade or don't trade Santana when the new GM gets to town.

 

Because I'm still assuming that those in favor of trading Santana are also in favor of a new GM that's not Anthony. If you don't want him here next year but you still really want him to make a trade now, it's going to be pretty hard to complain if that trade is disappointing now or in the future.

I promise not to complain about the return on any player who won't have value in 2018 and beyond.

If we get lotto tickets and they don't pan out, that is still better than not even getting any lotto tickets.

 

Now, if it's a guy under 30 like Dozier, then I'm going to look at it more results orientated, because Dozier could potentially still have value the next time we are competitive.

[markos]

Article at Beyond the Box Score looking at Santana's value: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/7/27/12291862/ervin-santana-minnesota-twins-trade-value-deadline

 

Basically, the argument is that if Santana was a free agent after this season, he would likely get as much or more than the 2/$28M left on his current deal. If the Twins agree to eat some of that salary, he is probably worth "a moderately-valued prospect".

[nytwinsfan]

 

There are 4 legit starters in AA right now.....you think NONE of them will be up next year? I hope the Twins aren't on the same slow timeline as you.

 

I expect at least 2 to be up for some time next year.

 

All 4 of them basically just arrived at AA.  1 is moving to relief shortly after he arrived there and won't even have real time starting at AA until early 2017, 2 of the remaining 3 are really struggling at AA and finally, the Twins rarely promote pitchers without a significant amount of time and success at AAA. Plus there is always the significant risk of injuries. The chance of even 1 of those 4 making it to the majors before a 2017 September call up seems miniscule to me.

 

If contending in 2017 is a realistic goal than why was Ryan fired?
A new GM isn't going to be able to change the roster that much between November and March, so if we win the WS next year it will be with Ryan's team.
This idea that we are going to go from 100 losses to WS contender in one year blows my mind.
I mean, I guess I understand it's a coping mechanism for fans, but if the professionals making the decisions actually feel that way, that blows my mind.

 

As I said, if you think we won't be a contender in 2017 or 2018, then fair enough. But keep in mind that the Twins (delusionally, sure) think they are a possible contender nearly every year. Also keep in mind we have been a .500+ team the last month and a half or so, so if that were to continue for the rest of the season (admittedly unlikely) then it wouldn't be entirely crazy to suggest that we could be a contender next year. Is that wishful thinking? Probably. But it is also probably enough to make Rob Antony and Dave SP think the Twins could compete next year.

[bird]

 

it's easy to not know everything about every team......

 

 

yeah, but it's hard to know practically nothing, and after perusing the Cubs roster here, I came pretty close

[Vanimal46]

Phil Miller's tweet embedded in the article markos just posted:

Is Ervin Santana available? Rob Antony says price would be high. "I'll be honest, I'm not calling anybody trying to move him."

Is reasons #1-1,000,000 why it's time to get rid of this regime once and for all. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

All 4 of them basically just arrived AA.  1 is moving to relief shortly after he arrived there and won't even have real time starting at AA until early 2017, 2 of the remaining 3 are really struggling at AA and finally, the Twins rarely promote pitchers without a significant amount of time and success at AAA. Plus there is always the significant risk of injuries. The chance of even 1 of those 4 making it to the majors before a 2017 September call up seems miniscule to me.

 

 

As I said, if you think we won't be a contender in 2017 or 2018, then fair enough. But keep in mind that the Twins (delusionally, sure) think they are a possible contender nearly every year. Also keep in mind we have been a .500+ team the last month and a half or so, so if that were to continue for the rest of the season (admittedly unlikely) then it wouldn't be entirely crazy to suggest that we could be a contender next year. Is that wishful thinking? Probably. But it is also probably enough to make Rob Antony and Dave SP think the Twins could compete next year.

 

Can't argue with any of that.....but I can disagree with some of it! You make sense, we just don't agree (and I certainly don't agree with the Twins on next year).

[clone52]

 

Hamels springs to mind. I know he's a better pitcher but was comparable in age and salary on a $/War basis. The Phills threw in a bunch of cash and got 6 prospects back including Eickhoff.

 

It doesn't happen everyday, for sure. It takes some creativity. Had the Phills GM sat by the phone waiting for it to ring and be "wowed" by an offer, like Antony's doing, that trade wouldn't have happened.

 

Really?  You have first hand knowledge that the Phillies GM drove that trade?  How do you know he wasn't bombarded with trade offers and took the best one?

 

Plus, comparing Hamels to Santana is ridiculous.  First, even if the $/WAR is the same, by getting doulbe the WAR at double the cost means you still have 4 more rotation spots to fill.  You can fill the rest of the rotation with lower WAR guys at a lower cost and still come out ahead in total WAR for your rotation.

 

Probably the biggest difference is that Texas was getting 4.5 years of Hamels.  Santana only has 2.5 years left.

[nytwinsfan]

Has anyone considered that Antony is willing to or even wants to trade Santana, but is just posturing to drive the price up on the margin? I mean, when you are trying to trade a player traditionally you don't say "yeah, we want to get rid of him, no matter what. Sell, Sell, Sell." Right?

 

 

[Vanimal46]

 

Has anyone considered that Antony is willing to or even wants to trade Santana, but is just posturing to drive the price up on the margin? I mean, when you are trying to trade a player traditionally you don't say "yeah, we want to get rid of him, no matter what. Sell, Sell, Sell." Right?

That's possible. I would think the more appropriate quote would be something like, "We're doing our due diligence and making calls to find out Santana's value around the league."

Instead of "I'll be honest, I'm not calling anybody trying to move him." That sounds like he's following in TR's footsteps right there. 

[nytwinsfan]

 

That's possible. I would think the more appropriate quote would be something like, "We're doing our due diligence and making calls to find out Santana's value around the league."

Instead of "I'll be honest, I'm not calling anybody trying to move him." That sounds like he's following in TR's footsteps right there. 

Fair enough.

[clone52]

 

That's possible. I would think the more appropriate quote would be something like, "We're doing our due diligence and making calls to find out Santana's value around the league."

Instead of "I'll be honest, I'm not calling anybody trying to move him." That sounds like he's following in TR's footsteps right there. 

 

But that could just be what he says publically, not what he's actually doing.

[Vanimal46]

 

But that could just be what he says publically, not what he's actually doing.

Sure, let's believe that for the next 5 days. More than likely Rob Antony's quote of not taking calls is the true answer, but miracles can happen. 

[clone52]

 

Sure, let's believe that for the next 5 days. More than likely Rob Antony's quote of not taking calls is the true answer, but miracles can happen. 

 

You misquoted him.  He's not "making" calls.  He didn't say he's not "taking" calls.  I'm sure he's listening to every offer given to him.

[magiklair]

 

You misquoted him.  He's not "making" calls.  He didn't say he's not "taking" calls.  I'm sure he's listening to every offer given to him.

 

Well, shouldn't he be making calls around the league to see how other clubs value Santana? Should be a two-way street.. Him making calls and taking calls.. But to be fair to Antony, he did start out in ticket sales. St. Peter started out in the gift shop.. So we shouldn't have real high standards of this bunch.

 

 

[old nurse]

 

But...but...what about his makeup?

Lipstick on a pig is lipstick on a pig. Putting makeup on Lohse is not going to improve him. Pitching looking like a drag queen as deception probably won't work. Although I do not think it will work I do not think players as drag queens had ever been done. Sale wouldn't be the only player with scissors

[kab21]

 

Yeah, normally I'd agree (and I sort of do), but after Berrios, we don't have any decent starting pitchers coming up until realistically 2018 at the earliest, and likely the second half of 2018. If you think we have any chance of contending in 2017 and 2018 (fair enough if you don't) then keeping Santana would be important to that and not easily replaced.

No, you keep Santana even if you don't think the team can contend in 2017. The depth in the rotation is so bad right now that even without bad luck they could be worse than this year. This year the starters ranks 2nd to last in the majors in ERA at 5.19. I can at least see some hope for the offense and the bullpen next season.

 

This is why you don't just give Santana away for any random lottery ticket. If there is a good return for Santana then he should be traded.

 

Why everyone is in a hurry to make this team worse is baffling.

[Mr. Brooks]

All 4 of them basically just arrived at AA. 1 is moving to relief shortly after he arrived there and won't even have real time starting at AA until early 2017, 2 of the remaining 3 are really struggling at AA and finally, the Twins rarely promote pitchers without a significant amount of time and success at AAA. Plus there is always the significant risk of injuries. The chance of even 1 of those 4 making it to the majors before a 2017 September call up seems miniscule to me.

 

 

As I said, if you think we won't be a contender in 2017 or 2018, then fair enough. But keep in mind that the Twins (delusionally, sure) think they are a possible contender nearly every year. Also keep in mind we have been a .500+ team the last month and a half or so, so if that were to continue for the rest of the season (admittedly unlikely) then it wouldn't be entirely crazy to suggest that we could be a contender next year. Is that wishful thinking? Probably. But it is also probably enough to make Rob Antony and Dave SP think the Twins could compete next year.

When I say contender, I mean WS contender, not just 2nd wild card contender.

I vehemently disagree with those who think it's a crapshoot once you get in. If that were true, the odds of the Twins getting swept out of the first round every year would have been astronomical.

 

But, at the end of the day, none of this discussion matters, because the only man whose opinion matters has said he's not considering moving Santana for less than a Kings ransom.

 

I will get a smirk this time next year when the Twins are 15 games under .500 and Santana has lost all his trade value.

I already know we will hear the usual: " boy, the Twins are so unlucky. Who could have known that Santana would decline so sharply?"

[USAFChief]

When I say contender, I mean WS contender, not just 2nd wild card contender.

I vehemently disagree with those who think it's a crapshoot once you get in. If that were true, the odds of the Twins getting swept out of the first round every year would have been astronomical.

But, at the end of the day, none of this discussion matters, because the only man whose opinion matters has said he's not considering moving Santana for less than a Kings ransom.

I will get a smirk this time next year when the Twins are 15 games under .500 and Santana has lost all his trade value.

I already know we will hear the usual: " boy, the Twins are so unlucky. Who could have known that Santana would decline so sharply?"

Will you also come back and admit you we're wrong, if it turns out you are?

[Mr. Brooks]

Will you also come back and admit you we're wrong, if it turns out you are?

Absolutely I will.

 

At the start of season I ripped the Twins pretty heavily for leaving Duffey in AAA.

I had no problem admitting I got that one wrong once it became apparent that his stuff isn't going to fly in a major league rotation.

 

I'll make it known I was flat out wrong if either:

 

1) The Twins get a good package for Ervin this offseason or next year.

 

Or

 

2) The Twins make a deep run in the playoffs and Santana is a valuable contributor to it.

[USAFChief]

 

Absolutely I will.

At the start of season I ripped the Twins pretty heavily for leaving Duffey in AAA.
I had no problem admitting I got that one wrong once it became apparent that his stuff isn't going to fly in a major league rotation.

I'll make it known I was flat out wrong if either:

1) The Twins get a good package for Ervin this offseason or next year.

Or

2) The Twins make a deep run in the playoffs and Santana is a valuable contributor to it.

We can quibble about number 2) but fair enough.

[Mr. Brooks]

We can quibble about number 2) but fair enough.

Is your quibble that if the Twins make a deep run and Santana is bad then he was still worth keeping, or that just a mediocre season like 2015 is enough to have been worth it?

[nytwinsfan]

 

When I say contender, I mean WS contender, not just 2nd wild card contender.
I vehemently disagree with those who think it's a crapshoot once you get in. If that were true, the odds of the Twins getting swept out of the first round every year would have been astronomical.

I mean, you're just factually wrong, statistically speaking. The odds of the Twins getting swept out of the first round every year were very low.  Sometimes unlikely events happen. That's what makes them unlikely events and not non-existent events.

[USAFChief]

Is your quibble that if the Twins make a deep run and Santana is bad then he was still worth keeping, or that just a mediocre season like 2015 is enough to have been worth it?

If they are in contention into, say, August and Santana is one of their five best starters, IMO it's worth it.

 

I don't believe they need to write off 2017. In fact, I hope they don't. I don't much believe in "rebuilding" when that means thinking you can build a team in 2016 for 2019.

[Mr. Brooks]

I mean, you're just factually wrong, statistically speaking. The odds of the Twins getting swept out of the first round every year were very low. Sometimes unlikely events happen. That's what makes them unlikely events and not non-existent events.

I never said it was impossible.

I pretty much said what you just said.

The more likely outcome is usually the correct one. In this case that is that those Twins teams were too poor to win it all, not that they had an even chance and got unlucky every year.

[clone52]

 

Is your quibble that if the Twins make a deep run and Santana is bad then he was still worth keeping, or that just a mediocre season like 2015 is enough to have been worth it?

 

Even a mediocre season like 2015 would be worth keeping Santana over giving him up for peanuts.

 

The Twins are a young team.  The future of the team is that youth.  The Twins are a key juncture right now where they really need to develop a winning culture.  That means its very important that they don't tank the rest of the year and that they aren't a terrible team next year.  If they tank this year, then great, they get the #1 pick, but all these young guys get a losing culture.  If they run into a tough stretch in future years they may just go back to this year and give up.  Same thing for next year.  You've got guys that will be developing for the future and you need take that incremental step up the winning ladder.

[Major League Ready]

I have not read all the posts so I apologize if this has been covered.  There are several SP prospects among the potential trade partners for Santana that grade out at 50 or 55 on MLB.com.  The 55s are top 100 ranked.  For me, any of them would be a no brainer.  The 50s is where I start to wonder if we jsut waiting until next year when his remaining contract is not as much of an issue.  Of course, he could start to show some decline next year and then we are not get much.  Where do you draw the line in terms of player profile you would take for Santana?

[clone52]

 

I have not read all the posts so I apologize if this has been covered.  There are several SP prospects among the potential trade partners for Santana that grade out at 50 or 55 on MLB.com.  The 55s are top 100 ranked.  For me, any of them would be a no brainer.  The 50s is where I start to wonder if we jsut waiting until next year when his remaining contract is not as much of an issue.  Of course, he could start to show some decline next year and then we are not get much.  Where do you draw the line in terms of player profile you would take for Santana?

 

Personally, I'd want something that would look major league ready in year or 2.  Not superstar quality obviously.

 

Lets say the Twins trade Santana, trade Milone and somehow unload Nolasco.  Next year's rotation is Gibson, Duffey (who has been really shaky) and Berrios.  After that, it might be May and any number of minor leaguers taking their lumps in the majors.  How do we all feel about the young offensive core of this team trying to battle through extremely shaky pitching?

[laloesch]

 

Personally, I'd want something that would look major league ready in year or 2.  Not superstar quality obviously.

 

Lets say the Twins trade Santana, trade Milone and somehow unload Nolasco.  Next year's rotation is Gibson, Duffey (who has been really shaky) and Berrios.  After that, it might be May and any number of minor leaguers taking their lumps in the majors.  How do we all feel about the young offensive core of this team trying to battle through extremely shaky pitching?

 

I'd feel good about it.  The current rotation aside from Santana has been awful top to bottom.  Gibson, Duffey, Nolasco and Milone have all been bad this season.