The 2016/2017 rotation

[ken]

 

Ricky Nolasco: 5.17 ERA, has no business being in a major league rotation.
 

Does this also apply to Mauer?

 

Nolasco WAR 1.4

Mauer WAR 1.4

 

or is WAR just a poor stat?

[jorgenswest]

Fangraphs WAR for Nolasco 1.4

Baseball Reference WAR 0.1

 

The difference? Fangraphs relies on FIP. Nolasco underperforms his FIP every year. It is either 9 years of bad luck or 9 years on an inability to pitch with runners on base. If FIP runs were what mattered instead of real runs, Nolasco would be a mid rotation starter. Unfortunately for the Twins, the ability to prevent real runs matters.

[DaveW]

 

Does this also apply to Mauer?

 

Nolasco WAR 1.4

Mauer WAR 1.4

 

or is WAR just a poor stat?

So basically you just proved that using WAR only (while ignoring everything else...and only one of the WAR's) is a poor use of the stat.

WAR is a fine state, but like every other stat it just tells a PART of the story.

Ditto with someone saying Ben Revere is a better player than Bryce Harper because of UZR.

 

I will bite though:Mauer has the longest on base steak in the MLB this year, the 2nd streak of 25 games he has had this year. He has a .800 OPS and a .388 OBP.

 

Yes, Mauer should be in the lineup

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Ugh this is depressing. This is what I'd do with the rotation right now ...

 

Trade Ricky Nolasco if you can.

Trade Ervin Santana.

 

Both players would not bring much in return and you'd have to eat some salary. But the fact is that neither are doing the job and this team NEEDS to develop starters. 

 

I would call up Berrios and make May a starter. I would also call up Tommy Milone and have him be the long man until one of the starters falters -- and it will happen.

 

So my rotation would be:

 

Berrios

Dean

May

Duffey

Gibson

 

Long man: Milone

Waiting in the wings in AAA: Meyer

 

The hope then is that some of these guys become good or serviceable, while young rotation options start making their way through the system.

 

Next year, I would start working to have Hughes be a reliever. 

Nolasco is still guaranteed ~$17.6 mil.  You would have to eat virtually all of it to unload him, it would effectively be a release.

 

Santana is still guaranteed ~$33.2 mil.  I suspect you wouldn't have to eat all of it, but eating half would cost as much as cutting Nolasco, and you still wouldn't get anything worthwhile in return.

 

And right now, Mays and Hughes (and Meyer) are on the DL, and Berrios is still searching for his groove at AAA.  It's not ideal, but the team could use a warm body in the rotation for a couple more weeks, at least.  Nolasco might be worth putting on the chopping block at that point.  I doubt Ervin Santana is worth unloading this season.

[mazeville]

 

Nolasco is still guaranteed ~$17.6 mil.  You would have to eat virtually all of it to unload him, it would effectively be a release.

 

Santana is still guaranteed ~$33.2 mil.  I suspect you wouldn't have to eat all of it, but eating half would cost as much as cutting Nolasco, and you still wouldn't get anything worthwhile in return.

 

And right now, Mays and Hughes (and Meyer) are on the DL, and Berrios is still searching for his groove at AAA.  It's not ideal, but the team could use a warm body in the rotation for a couple more weeks, at least.  Nolasco might be worth putting on the chopping block at that point.  I doubt Ervin Santana is worth unloading this season.

 

I should probably clarify to note that by "right now" I mean "when May comes off the DL.

 

Hughes is on the 60-day DL and the chances of him pitching again this year are slim.

 

I would still try trading Santana in the hopes of getting something in return. 

 

This team needs to develop pitching badly. I think they should just let the kids play and see what comes of it. If and when the team returns to contention, they can hopefully sign a free agent to bolster the rotation. But they need to develop first. 

[bluechipper]

I cannot stand watching Kyle Gibson pitch, but after reading this, he probably needs to be kept for next year, given the other options.

[bluechipper]

The starting pitching free agent list for this offseason is awful. Wow.

[Vanimal46]

 

The starting pitching free agent list for this offseason is awful. Wow.

Yeah it's really bad. The only person I have a remote interest in taking a flyer on is Brett Anderson. But even he could be cooked since he's out for this current season. 

[Taildragger8791]

This year is a prime example that you can't have enough starting pitching and you shouldn't be putting solid pitchers on waivers before the season even starts because Duffey/Berrios can't start the season in the rotation. I would love it if they were legitimately blocked by solid starters.

 

Unfortunately every single starter has turned into a pumpkin. A pessimist could have predicted that 1 or 2 of the Santana, Hughes, Duffey or Gibson (not to mention Berrios in his limited time) would be absolutely dreadful. I would have felt very safe that as a group those 4 would be around a 4.00 ERA instead of 5.50.

 

Next year you start out with something like this

Santana

Hughes

Gibson

Duffey

Berrios

 

And even with this you will need to have 2-3 starters in AA/AAA ready to go.

 

I'm not sure why you'd assume the group of Santana, Hughes, Duffey, & Gibson would be around 4.00 when all of them have career ERAs well north of that. As does Nolasco. Banking on all 5 of your starting pitchers to outperform their career averages to date seems like a losing gamble. Like betting a 5 team parlay for March Madness and being surprised when you got 1-4. I'm tired of having rosters built on hope and wishes for players to do something they've never consistently done before. When you go into a year needing X, Y, Z, A, B, and C to all fall your way that means you built a poor roster and are straight up gambling on a lucky turnout.

 

If we go into next year with that rotation you mentioned, which I basically expect as well (also Nolasco somewhere), it's going to be an exact repeat of this season and we'd be foolish to expect any different. The only hope here is that Gonsalves, Stewart, Jay, and Berrios all magically work out and are up for 2018 ready to go. Past results suggest that's a long shot, but there's no way this rotation next year won't be a god awful cesspool of incompetence again.

[Everyday Eddy]

Hughes and Nolasco to the pen and hope they can hit 94-96 for an inning.   If not, DFA. Sunk costs, Terry.

 

Rotation: Berrios, Duffey, Gibson, Santana, and May.

 

This all based on the current situation.   I hope to God something changes and Dozier or Plouffe become valuable and another promising arm comes into the mix but I'm not holding my breathe.   Also hoping for new decision makers but again not going to hold my breathe.   Milone should be someone's fifth starter in the majors right now so I'm hoping he can be flipped for a prospect.

 

This rotation doesn't inspire much optimism but we can hope that next year starts out on a better note and confidence is gained and built upon rather than crushed immediately as was the case this year.

[wsnydes]

I thought I had a headache before I started reading this thread.  Now I have a headache and i'm suddenly nauseous too.

[Taildragger8791]

 

This rotation doesn't inspire much optimism but we can hope that next year starts out on a better note and confidence is gained and built upon rather than crushed immediately as was the case this year.

 

Not picking on you Eddy, but this closing sentence in your post is exactly what I was referring to. We're already resigned to stumbling into next year with effectively the same pieces, plus a rookie in Berrios, and just hoping for better results.

[jorgenswest]

The Twins dismal starting pitching should have known last November. It shouldn't have been a surprise that many projected the Twins for last place.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-8030-steamer-projections-starting-pitching/

[wsnydes]

 

Not picking on you Eddy, but this closing sentence in your post is exactly what I was referring to. We're already resigned to stumbling into next year with effectively the same pieces, plus a rookie in Berrios, and just hoping for better results.

That sounds eerily similar to last offseason...

[Everyday Eddy]

 

Not picking on you Eddy, but this closing sentence in your post is exactly what I was referring to. We're already resigned to stumbling into next year with effectively the same pieces, plus a rookie in Berrios, and just hoping for better results.

 

I agree with you completely that it shouldn't be like this,   but unfortunately it is.   Hope is all we can do

[KGB]

 

Does this also apply to Mauer?

 

Nolasco WAR 1.4

Mauer WAR 1.4

 

or is WAR just a poor stat?

You are missing the often used "pick and choose" stat's that support your position approach

[ken]

 

So basically you just proved that using WAR only (while ignoring everything else...and only one of the WAR's) is a poor use of the stat.

WAR is a fine state, but like every other stat it just tells a PART of the story.

Ditto with someone saying Ben Revere is a better player than Bryce Harper because of UZR.

 

I will bite though:Mauer has the longest on base steak in the MLB this year, the 2nd streak of 25 games he has had this year. He has a .800 OPS and a .388 OBP.

 

Yes, Mauer should be in the lineup

Similar to using just one stat like ERA the judge a pitcher? 

 

The WAR stat uses multiple stat's to come up with a number to value players. I'm not a Nolasco fan or a Mauer hater, but I think it's very interesting how they can have the value used to show Mauer value through out his career and have such different perceived value this year.

 

 

 

[ALessKosherScott]

The overarching bright side is between Faedo, Bukakas, Houck, Wright and Beck, it's a good year to suck if your biggest need is a college pitcher with big upside in the 2017 Draft.

[DocBauer]

I agree with a general consensus here for next year:

 

Santana

Gibson

Duffey

Berrios

May

 

Though not in any specific order. Meyer and Wheeler are possibles, but on the outside looking in at this point. Hughes is a dark horse at this point. Maybe healthy, he rediscover himself in 2017. Maybe he needs to be a high priced reliever. Maybe he's toast. Just so hard to predict him at this point...so I'm not going to.

 

Gibson has had a rough year. But we've also seen what he can do when healthy. He's solid, occasionally excellent, and still has room to go before bumping in to his ceiling, IMO. Berrios is young and still working some kinks out. But I am in no way soured on him. I like Duffey and think there is room there. Like everyone else this year it seems, he's not having as good of a year. But he's shown ability and flashes and hasn't even hit a full season played yet.

 

May? Come on. We have many pen possibilities for next year. Take the hard throwing young man and put him back in the rotation. You're a team that has had an awful time developing young SP. Don't treat one you have right in your midst so poorly by relegating him to the pen.

 

If your rotation is going to be inconsistent, at least let it be inconsistent with some young arms with upside!

[lukeduke1980]

 

Santana, Gibson and Berrios should all be fine. 

 

Based on what exactly - a new pitching coach?

[Halsey Hall]

Just skimming through this thread I'm going to have to disagree with just about everyone.  There's not a pitcher that has started a game for us this year that should be in next years rotation except Berrios. 

 

However, I wouldn't be to surprised if they gave Duffey, Dean and May a shot at the rotation next spring.  After all, it'd be hard to dump the whole lot of these guys between now and then.  I'd like to see 4 new names in the rotation.

[kab21]

 

I'm not sure why you'd assume the group of Santana, Hughes, Duffey, & Gibson would be around 4.00 when all of them have career ERAs well north of that. As does Nolasco. Banking on all 5 of your starting pitchers to outperform their career averages to date seems like a losing gamble. Like betting a 5 team parlay for March Madness and being surprised when you got 1-4. I'm tired of having rosters built on hope and wishes for players to do something they've never consistently done before. When you go into a year needing X, Y, Z, A, B, and C to all fall your way that means you built a poor roster and are straight up gambling on a lucky turnout.

 

If we go into next year with that rotation you mentioned, which I basically expect as well (also Nolasco somewhere), it's going to be an exact repeat of this season and we'd be foolish to expect any different. The only hope here is that Gonsalves, Stewart, Jay, and Berrios all magically work out and are up for 2018 ready to go. Past results suggest that's a long shot, but there's no way this rotation next year won't be a god awful cesspool of incompetence again.

Well north of 4.00? I am not sure where you got your numbers.

 

Gibson had ERA's of 4.47 and 3.84 in his first two seasons and had shown improvement. Expecting a 4.00 ERA seems reasonable with some upside.

 

Santana - from 2008-2015 he has had 6 out of 8 seasons with 4.00 ERA or better including the last 3. Expecting a 4.00 ERA seems reasonable although aging is a factor.

 

Duffey had a 3.10 ERA last year. He of course wasn't this good but expecting 4.00 ERA is reasonable. Currently he has a 3.54 xFIP and a .358 BAPIP. 

 

Hughes is the only that had a career ERA well north of 4. He had shown signs of turning the corner in 2014 but he lost a little velocity and the ability to K anyone. That one was more of a hope.

 

I am comfortable saying that Santana and Duffey should be decent pitchers next season. Gibson is iffy because he is dealing with an arm injury but if he is healthy then he should be decent. Hughes is going the Nolasco route unfortunately. I am not making an argument that it is a great rotation but they aren't this bad (Nolasco is...).

[DocBauer]

Just skimming through this thread I'm going to have to disagree with just about everyone.  There's not a pitcher that has started a game for us this year that should be in next years rotation except Berrios. 

 

However, I wouldn't be to surprised if they gave Duffey, Dean and May a shot at the rotation next spring.  After all, it'd be hard to dump the whole lot of these guys between now and then.  I'd like to see 4 new names in the rotation.

While I understand your frustration with available options, and the vast disappointment of just about everyone who's started for the Twins this season, I'm going to have to disagree with you Halsey.

 

We have to take a step back from this season and take a realistic look at the options presented to us. Santana is no ACE, though at times in his career he has resembled one. That's not him any longer. And he's not going to suddenly get better. But he was quite good in 2015 initially, stumbled for a time, then finished very strong. Who is the real Santana? I'm not sure we know that just yet. But I truly believe he is capable of being a solid mid rotation starter for another season or two. His career, and last year with the Twins, would seem to indicate this.

 

Gibson had a somewhat up and down but solid rookie year in 2014, and was even better in 2015. Injury this year, and a whole, stinkpot, mean spirited curse has infected the Twins this season. But he has the stuff and look of a very solid mid rotation starter, with room still to improve, who sometimes pitches lie a #2.

 

Just how good CAN Berrios eventually be? Impossible to predict. But he is a top prospect for a reason, and we've seen what he is capable. Eventually, he will get back on top of things and get back up to the Twins. His stuff, drive, work ethic and knack for making adjustments is outstanding. No matter how people try, you just can't predict ACE-Dom for any pitcher. But he will almost certainly be a front line ML SP. At least a 2, and no worse than a high quality 3.

 

I really like Duffey. If you track his milb career, for the most part, he just got better and better every year he moved up. And he was borderline sensational last year for the Twins. Even if he's not really THAT GOOD, he's flashed his potential. Even with the ever present, downtrodden curse hovering over the Twins this season, he's pitched well at times. And again, this young man still hasn't even pitched a full season's worth of games at the ML level yet.

 

That's one stable veteran to help lead and balance the staff with 3 young starters. Who is the 5th guy? I just don't want to go on yet another rant as to the handling of May last year...or this year...and the incredibly short-sighted and borderline stupid handling of him by the Twins. I would get him healthy first. Then I would send him to Rochester to stretch out, re-familiarize him with being a startER again, and then keep him there. He may hit some bumps, take some lumps, but we are talking about what is best for him and the Twins future. Hopefully, he still gets at least a month, if not two, back in the Twins rotation this year.

 

Meyer, Wheeler and Dean would be other options on the outside looking in, at this point. Man, if only Dean had a bit more pure stuff, or you could take his feel for pitching and transfer it to others. I really like his approach!

 

Is this a championship rotation? Nope. But it's got potential and possibilities. And if you're going to take lumps, take them with young guys who actually have that potential. And then build from there. There's even more and better potential arms coming up behind them. But you have to start somewhere.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Well north of 4.00? I am not sure where you got your numbers.

 

Gibson had ERA's of 4.47 and 3.84 in his first two seasons and had shown improvement. Expecting a 4.00 ERA seems reasonable with some upside.

 

Santana - from 2008-2015 he has had 6 out of 8 seasons with 4.00 ERA or better including the last 3. Expecting a 4.00 ERA seems reasonable although aging is a factor.

 

Duffey had a 3.10 ERA last year. He of course wasn't this good but expecting 4.00 ERA is reasonable. Currently he has a 3.54 xFIP and a .358 BAPIP. 

 

Hughes is the only that had a career ERA well north of 4. He had shown signs of turning the corner in 2014 but he lost a little velocity and the ability to K anyone. That one was more of a hope.

 

I am comfortable saying that Santana and Duffey should be decent pitchers next season. Gibson is iffy because he is dealing with an arm injury but if he is healthy then he should be decent. Hughes is going the Nolasco route unfortunately. I am not making an argument that it is a great rotation but they aren't this bad (Nolasco is...).

 

I got that from looking at their total career ERAs. The gymnastics you went through to show how it's "reasonable" to think that with upside and hopes of improvement these players would be at 4.00 again just reinforced my point.

 

Gibson also had an ERA of 6.53 over 10 games in his debut season. Yes, I know it was his debut season but they still count and I'm trying not to pick arbitrary data points here. So his career ERA is 4.55. I understand he had a good year last year, but if you're hoping for improvement or a repeat of his best season instead of regression then you're still taking a chance. He's always been kind of hittable and isn't a big strikeout guy. That means he'll be prone to bouts of ineffectiveness, especially if his control or the defense wanes.

 

Santana's the best bet, but he has 5 seasons of ERAs that range between 4.28 and 5.76 and then 6 seasons under 4.00. That's almost a coin flip as to which year you're going to get from him. Who knows how much those recent years you quoted were PED-assisted prior to his suspension? He certainly struggled when he returned from the bust. At age 33 and post-PEDs you're again just taking a chance that he'll outperform his average results. Maybe he's not "well" above 4.00, but he's above.

 

Duffey only had 10 career starts in the majors coming into this year. He wasn't a top prospect. He looked good initially but the opponents didn't have time to adjust to him yet so I'm not sure you can even make a reasonable assumption about what to expect from him. You can hope for 4.00 but that should be considered the upside, not the expectation, and I wouldn't stake my team's season on it.

 

Hughes had one good year as a starter over several years. He set the all-time record for walk rate in a season. Reproducing that after his marked decline last year was pretty unlikely.

 

 

If you want to assure better results than this season you need to find 3 pitchers better than the above guys, and let the rest compete for the last 2 spots. Hopefully Berrios is one of those 3, but that's more "hope" since he isn't established yet. Santana will be a coin flip again with another year of age weighing down the wrong side of the coin. He's a fine #4 in a winning rotation at this point. I like Duffey and think we'll have a better picture of him by the end of the year. I don't know what to expect from him yet because he wasn't a highly regarded prospect and his performance so far has been volatile. I'm comfortable with him as a #5 and Gibson as a fall-back. That means Berrios needs to be at least a #3 and you still need two new pitchers at that level or better. The idea here is to anchor the upside of the rotation instead of hoping for 5 "reasonable" bets to pay off all at once. You'll lose that bet almost every time, which is how Vegas consistently comes out ahead despite giving huge odds on those 5-team parlays.

[kab21]

Those aren't gymnastics. It is how you project players. You put less weight on stats from the beginning of their career because of the adjustment to the MLB isn't an easy one. You put more weight on recent stats than those from a decade ago. Looking at career ERA is lazy. One thing to do would be to go back and look at the threads from the offseason about Duffey and Gibson. People weren't talking about them like 'It's a longshot for them to be average pitchers'. 

 

As for the rest of your post we are talking two entirely different things. This is where the Twins are and for now those are the pitchers that they will have until the next wave of prospects come up behind Berrios and Duffey. I think everyone will agree that they shouldn't be adding anymore 30+ yr old veterans in FA. It won't be a great rotation but it is very likely to be better than this year and that isn't comparable to hoping for a 5 team parlay.

[beckmt]

And even Nolasco would not be that bad if not for Molitor not taking him out when he was out of gas in a couple of games.  The 6th and 7th innings have been brutal for him, and not being ready for it speaks of bad management.

[DaveW]

Is there a pitcher in the current rotation that you can actually COUNT on to keep you in a ball game? i.e. 4 or less ER in 6 IP? I don't see one.

[alarp33]

 

Is there a pitcher in the current rotation that you can actually COUNT on to keep you in a ball game? i.e. 4 or less ER in 6 IP? I don't see one.

 

That's a pretty low bar that I would say Santana and Gibson (yes, I know he's been bad in 6 starts this year) clear... I mean 4er in 6 innings is a 6 era.  

[wsnydes]

 

May? Come on. We have many pen possibilities for next year. Take the hard throwing young man and put him back in the rotation. You're a team that has had an awful time developing young SP. Don't treat one you have right in your midst so poorly by relegating him to the pen.
 

This.  This has always driven me nuts about this move.  They suck at developing young starting pitchers, then they have one that is pitching well and move him to the pen.  I understand that's what they needed at the time, but that is awfully short sighted.

[jorgenswest]

Improving the defense will help every pitcher in the rotation. Bad defense leads to high leverage innings, larger pitch counts, shortened starts and stressed bullpens. The cumulative effect of bad defense takes a toll on the pitching staff as the season progresses.

 

They chose this defense. Sano in RF. Santana in CF. Nunez at SS. Suzuki at C. Should any of them have been expected to be anywhere but the bottom at their positions? Add the poorer than expected play of Rosario, Dozier and Escobar and you give a staff no chance. Pitchers that should have been mediocre are at the bottom instead.

 

As they rebuild this team, they need to build it on a foundation of defense. They need to choose gloves over bats. Poorer defense has a cumulative effect as it stresses the pitching staff. Poorer hitting doesn't have that same cumulative effect.