Max Kepler

[John Kelsey]

Max hit a home run, a triple, and a double tonight and his OPS is up to .818 in AAA now. 

 

He was the guy I was really hoping would get more of a chance when he was up here. With his contact skills and K/BB ratio I don't think his lows would be nearly as low as Rosario or Buxton. Sending Rosario down presented a perfect opportunity for Kepler to come up and get some ABs but instead we get Robbie Grossman. 

 

This leaves me with two questions:

 

How long does the Grossman experiment last and do you think Kepler gets the call before Buxton and Rosario get another shot?

[Mr. Brooks]

I've thought since the start of the season that Max should be up and starting every game.

Unfortunately Mollie has no time for rookies.

[jud6312]

I think in order for Kepler to get a shot - a legitimate shot, not 2 starts in 2 weeks - one or more of the following has to happen:

• Arcia totally implodes or gets injured while Max is riding a hot streak
• Plouffe is traded and they move Sano to 3B
• They give up on Santana and decide they can't start either Grossman or Mastroianni - i.e. Molitor is told the rookie is coming up to play CF and he will play over those two

As for the second part of your question, I do actually think he'll be back up before Buxton and Rosario. Rosario because I don't think he's going to learn the strike zone fast enough to get out of the doghouse and Buxton because I think they're going to make him prove he's healthy and ready for a significant stretch of time.

[Shaitan]

I know it's been discussed, but do they feel he can be an everyday CF? My impression is no. In that case I think jud6312 is right about what it will take. And I hope Arcia doesn't implode.

 

[DaveW]

Kepler is a good enough CF where he could be decent enough in CF for the Twins until Buxton is back.

 

It would be kinda silly for the Twins to have Sano play RF but refuse to let Kepler play CF to be honest.

[John Kelsey]

 

I know it's been discussed, but do they feel he can be an everyday CF? My impression is no. In that case I think jud6312 is right about what it will take. And I hope Arcia doesn't implode.

 

I've always thought of him on the Rosario level where he could play there for a week or two but you probably don't want him there all season. 

[gunnarthor]

I think Kepler and Buxton should both stay in AAA until after the all-star break.  Combined, they have about 250 PA in AAA.  Let them (and Rosario) hit without pressure, take good at bats and we can see where they are in a bit.

 

Meanwhile, perhaps Arcia or Grossman (both former top 100 prospects) can get hot with consistent playing time (assuming they get it) and may increase their trade value.  

[d-mac]

 

I know it's been discussed, but do they feel he can be an everyday CF? My impression is no. In that case I think jud6312 is right about what it will take. And I hope Arcia doesn't implode.

 

Well, he has a 38.2% K-rate. So he kinda has imploded. He's put up -0.4 fWAR. He's completely failed to make the adjustment to the high fastball- the hole in his swing is so massive, I don't know how anything short of a complete retool of his swing how he'd ever be a valuable major leaguer. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Well, he has a 38.2% K-rate. So he kinda has imploded. He's put up -0.4 fWAR. He's completely failed to make the adjustment to the high fastball- the hole in his swing is so massive, I don't know how anything short of a complete retool of his swing how he'd ever be a valuable major leaguer. 

I agree but he's also been yanked in and out of the line-up a lot.  

 

Molitor didn't even start him until the 5th game and his next start was the 8th game.  Benched again. Then he started 6 games in a row (.968 OPS, 30% krate).  Benched for two games, one start, benched again, then given 5 starts in a row (.650 OPS 55% krate).  Benched again for a few games. Then given 5 starts (.917 OPS, 20% krate), benched, spot start, bench, spot start, benched for a couple games, pinch hit attempt, bench ....

 

He has a big strike out night, Molitor benches him for several games.  That's not helping him.  He's never going to be a low strike out guy but he's increased his walk rate and clearly has made efforts to improve his game.  He's a former top prospect, still young and has real power.  The Twins should be giving him a real chance and not yanking him in and out of the line-up.  If for no other reason to determine what he might become and/or see if they can increase his trade value.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-george-springer-who-isnt-george-springer/

[diehardtwinsfan]

Kepler was pretty bad in April (though in his defense, he spent a lot of time accumulating rust on the ML bench), but he's been good in May.  Just about anyone can get hot for a couple weeks, so I think I echo what others said and say that I'd wait until the ASB at the earliest.  If this is nothing more than SSS, we will know by then.  If not, I'd call him up and put him in a corner spot.  That's just me of course.

[d-mac]

 

I agree but he's also been yanked in and out of the line-up a lot.  

 

Molitor didn't even start him until the 5th game and his next start was the 8th game.  Benched again. Then he started 6 games in a row (.968 OPS, 30% krate).  Benched for two games, one start, benched again, then given 5 starts in a row (.650 OPS 55% krate).  Benched again for a few games. Then given 5 starts (.917 OPS, 20% krate), benched, spot start, bench, spot start, benched for a couple games, pinch hit attempt, bench ....

 

He has a big strike out night, Molitor benches him for several games.  That's not helping him.  He's never going to be a low strike out guy but he's increased his walk rate and clearly has made efforts to improve his game.  He's a former top prospect, still young and has real power.  The Twins should be giving him a real chance and not yanking him in and out of the line-up.  If for no other reason to determine what he might become and/or see if they can increase his trade value.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-george-springer-who-isnt-george-springer/

 

Totally agree, not just Arcia, but so many of the prospects have just been handled awfully by Molitor. But at this point I think mechanical issues are really holding him back- until he makes wholsale changes to his swing, he's likely just a replacement level player with extreme platoon splits and poor defense. 

[d-mac]

 

Kepler was pretty bad in April (though in his defense, he spent a lot of time accumulating rust on the ML bench), but he's been good in May.  Just about anyone can get hot for a couple weeks, so I think I echo what others said and say that I'd wait until the ASB at the earliest.  If this is nothing more than SSS, we will know by then.  If not, I'd call him up and put him in a corner spot.  That's just me of course.

 

In AAA Kepler is hitting .274/.355/.463 with 1.08 BB/K ratio. If you eliminate his first 4 games in AAA, the two he played in before he got called up, and the two after returning he has hit .309/.385/.531 with a .91 BB/K ratio since 4/29.

[John Kelsey]

Not to toot my own horn but this kid looks pretty darn good and it seems sustainable. 

 

Definitely a bright spot from this season if he keeps it up. 

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

He's taking some walks, that's what I like.

[TheLeviathan]

Kid looks good.  Vargas looks better too.

[bird]

Please, Paulie, let the kids play now. Mauer is a superb bench bat. Robbie is a superb 4th OF.

[d-mac]

 

Not to toot my own horn but this kid looks pretty darn good and it seems sustainable. 

 

Definitely a bright spot from this season if he keeps it up. 

 

He's starting to hit lefties a little better now, too. That was his achilles heel in the minors up until last year, and really struggled against left handers in the big leagues until fairly recently. 

[Bill Brown69]

I was not sold on Kepler being able to contribute much this year as he has been a 1 year per level player in the past and even though he could be a prime candidate for a sophmore slump, I have seen enough to be convinced he is going to be a 10 year star in this league if he can maintain health. It may take until 2019 to get the consistency down but I could see Ellis Burks type numbers for him from the #2 hole. That would be impressive.

 

FYI Ellis Burks 162 game average

101 runs/ 33 doubles/ 5 triples/ 29 homers/ 98 RBI/ 15 steals and a career WAR of 49.6

[John Kelsey]

 

This kid is amazing. 

[nytwinsfan]

Question, is Kepler really a FA in 2022, as Baseball Reference says? http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/keplema01.shtml

 

I would have thought he was a free agent in 2023

 

[alarp33]

Max Kepler 230 PA  .256/.332/.547   2.3 WAR

Trevor Plouffe 231 PA .252/.283/.399  -0.2 WAR

 

I remember lots of people scoffing when I said over the Winter I thought the team and lineup would be better with Sano at 3B and Kepler in RF than Plouffe at 3B and Sano in RF.  

[gunnarthor]

Since June 2, Kepler is hitting .270/.340/.570 with 23 walks and 40 strike outs.  27 of his 50 hits have gone for extra bases. 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

I had reasonably high hopes.....he's exceeded those so far. 

[FormerMinnasotan]

Kepler has become one of my favorite Twins. He just keeps improving. Even if he has a sophomore slump next year guys like Rosario, Sano, and possibly Buxton should take some of the pressure off of Kepler next year.

[jimmer]

 

Since June 2, Kepler is hitting .270/.340/.570 with 23 walks and 40 strike outs.  27 of his 50 hits have gone for extra bases. 

and with a pretty low BABIP as well, if I remember correctly.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Since June 2, Kepler is hitting .270/.340/.570 with 23 walks and 40 strike outs.  27 of his 50 hits have gone for extra bases.

And also during that 2 month period, a BABIP of .267.

 

Also, to get even more ridiculous, since July 2nd . . .

.266/.346/.681 (1.027) with 11.2% BB rate and 14.% Ks and . . . BABIP of .203. WOW.

[alarp33]

 

and with a pretty low BABIP as well, if I remember correctly.

 

Correct, only .267

[jokin]

 

Correct, only .267

 

Yeah... if only he could just stop hitting all of those Homers

[nicksaviking]

Soooo, if Bill Smith was a bad GM, but was still retained after being fired, why didn't they just put him in charge of the International signings and budget? That seemed to be something he was good at, aside from that one time in Asia.

[jokin]

 

 

I had reasonably high hopes.....he's exceeded those so far. 

 

I've been a fan of Max since I saw him play on two separate occasions in the minors. Someone comped him currently to Plouffe's month of HR unconsciousness a few years back. I don't think there's any comparison. Whereas Plouffe is a plodder and his MLB development has been slow, up and down, and at times downright painful, Kepler has been a joy to watch, even when he has made mistakes. While it's still in doubt if Kepler is likely ever to be an annual 30+ HR guy- assuming he doesn't have a serious injury he has the career trajectory with both the literal look of poetry in motion as well as the figurative look of being unrattleable, both in the field and at the plate.