A new unwritten rule?

[Platoon]

First off, full disclosure. I am a believer in the "Unwritten Rule". While I wont debate each and every one, there is a place for most of them. And one of them was supposedly violated yesterday in Detroit. No I am not talking about the unwritten rule that MLB players should be able to hit a cutoff man, catch a pop up behind second or SS, not run over the top of a dead ball in RF, not bounce throws by the first baseman, and not make Verlander look like it was 2013, not 2016.

 

The one I am talking about is stealing 3rd with two outs, and down a bunch. A rule btw I firmly agree with. That is if there is a third baseman. If your team decides it needs the third baseman to stand at short, that would seem to me to be an invitation for someone with speed to simply jog to the empty base. Would I care if your feelings were hurt? Or your throw em out stats suffered? Not really. And who is batting is in this case irrelevant, since you can't get thrown out if no one is there to throw to. As for whether Rosario should have taken the subsequent huge leads, causing Verlander to react like a pitcher in 9 year old league, that's on Verlander. Ignoring Rosario would have been the simplest way to resolve that issue.

 

The rise of extreme shifts is going have to cause the reassessment of some of the unwritten rules. Players aren't where they used to be when the unwritten rules were written. Bases and acres of real estate are left uncovered. Bunts by non bunting type players will happen, and advancing to an uncovered base, I don't call it stealing, will become more frequent. It's going to be the unintended consequence of advanced metrics.

 

Molitor apparently acknowledges, metrics at least as far as the shifting goes. I assume this means he is willing to violate the unwritten rule that the third baseman plays third. And if he is that enlightened, he should have no trouble accepting the fact that if the bag is left open, why not take it?

 

The term "respect for the game", is a Twins cornerstone. And I have no problem with that theory. But is respect for the game defined by not taking an open bag down four? Or by taunting a team with an extreme shift, and leaving a bag open in front of a runner as Detroti did. In essence, making the base runner look foolish or lacksidasical for not advancing? I guess it depends on perspective, doesn't it?

 

I am not writing this to argue the demotion of Rosario, he has certainly had his struggles. That is another issue completely. In fact if the team wanted to demote players who were not performing to MLB standards, they should have just taken the whole charter to Rochester. But if Rosario's steal was the straw that broke the camels back, we might need a new camel!

[Mr. Brooks]

If the score is still close enough that you are doing a defensive shift, then it's close enough to steal the open base, period.

[TheLeviathan]

 

If the score is still close enough that you are doing a defensive shift, then it's close enough to steal the open base, period.

 

Hell yeah.  If you want to shift - live with the consequences or don't shift.

[Otto von Ballpark]

When the base is unoccupied and it's basically free, I don't see why you wouldn't take it.

 

And I think some people are minimizing the benefits of advancement there -- a runner on third scores on an infield hit, or a wild pitch or a passed ball, where a runner on second would not.  It also makes it easier for the runner on first to advance into scoring position himself on a wild pitch or passed ball (although the runner was Suzuki, so it still wasn't likely).  Down 3 in the 7th inning, those things still have value.  Probably not worth the risk of a normal steal attempt, but again, this wasn't a normal steal.  It was virtually a free base.

[dgwills]

Here's Molitor's quote about it: "We're trailing by four with two outs in the seventh and we have our best hitter up there. The risk a hundredfold is greater than the reward." I didn't see the game, but it seems like he was watching something completely different from what you saw. Who should I believe?

[tharasix]

A few years back, I was at Target Field and the Twins were down by many in the bottom of the 9th against the Tigers.  Dude gets on, and the first baseman doesn't hold the runner on, but he doesn't go on the defensive indifference.  After a long at bat with plenty of opportunities to take second, the batter grounds into a double play.

 

It drove me insane (though I might have been a little drunk at that point).  I was screaming so much for him to steal that I even got Jerry White to give me a dirty look.  If you're just going to give up on the game, why even come out and take your at bats?

[tharasix]

 

Here's Molitor's quote about it: "We're trailing by four with two outs in the seventh and we have our best hitter up there. The risk a hundredfold is greater than the reward." I didn't see the game, but it seems like he was watching something completely different from what you saw. Who should I believe?

 

Ugh.  What risk?  That the pitcher can run down Rosario when he tries to steal?  That you might lose a ballgame?  That might risk your chances of making the playoffs.  The Twins record is so stellar at this point that you'd hate to take a risk.

[gunnarthor]

Yeah, I didn't see the play but I'm pretty sure from Molitor's comments Rosario isn't being punished for violating an unwritten rule but rather for doing a bone-headed play.  (And his air-mail throw in the first didn't help, either).

 

Interestingly, this reminded me of an on-field incident Molitor had with Chuck Knoblauch when Knobby stole third in a blowout loss.  The two were seen arguing in the dugout about the play and basically Molly accused Knobby of trying to inflate his stats and Knobby used F-words.  Ahh, the 90s.  

[REPETE]

yeah, not sure about the validity of this argument.  Down by 3?  That's still within reach (if you could ever get a hit with RISP!!!).  The rest of his plays on the day were most definitely boneheaded, but those were all defensive minded.  Clearly, something is different with Rosario this year than last, both defensively & offensively, but taking 3rd when it's just sitting there was NOT the reason to send him down.  The other 1000 things he's done this year are.

[Platoon]

Yeah, I didn't see the play but I'm pretty sure from Molitor's comments Rosario isn't being punished for violating an unwritten rule but rather for doing a bone-headed play.  (And his air-mail throw in the first didn't help, either).

 

Interestingly, this reminded me of an on-field incident Molitor had with Chuck Knoblauch when Knobby stole third in a blowout loss.  The two were seen arguing in the dugout about the play and basically Molly accused Knobby of trying to inflate his stats and Knobby used F-words.  Ahh, the 90s.

 

The bone head play, would have violated the UR. Ergo, he is being called out for that. I also clearly stated that I consider his demotion warranted on a performance basis, but it was unnecessary to pile on over what was not an unsound play. If on the other hand, Molitor considered it disrespectful or selfish to take the bag, he should say so, and not couch it in competitive terms.

[COtwin]

It was an easy steal.  I thought it was a smart play.  The scoring chances were improved, and Eddie only had to not trip to get the base.  I thought it was Bush League to pull him mid game.  So the next time Joe strikes out after watching 2 down the middle or the next time Brian tries to pull a low and away strike, or the next time Kurt lets a ball get by that he should easily stop, are we going to see them pulled mid game???  This team has a long and distinguished history of holding young players to a higher standard than veterans, has beens, and never will be's.

[HitInAPinch]

I really don't believe it was just this one thing that caused Rosario's demotion.  It's the accumulation of many things the entire year.  A wake up call was needed.  Rosario got what he deserved.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I really don't believe it was just this one thing that caused Rosario's demotion.

I don't think anyone would dispute that.

 

He was pulled from this game immediately after the steal, though, which seemed like an overreaction.

 

The demotion after the game was a long time comin' (and quite arguably overdue).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Here's Molitor's quote about it: "We're trailing by four with two outs in the seventh and we have our best hitter up there. The risk a hundredfold is greater than the reward." I didn't see the game, but it seems like he was watching something completely different from what you saw. Who should I believe?

Here's the video of it -- MLB titles it "Rosario's heads-up baserunning"

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/v710269083?game_pk=447467

 

The free condensed game video has a wide-angle replay too, just after the 10 minute mark:

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/v710633683?game_pk=447467

 

It's a little closer than a completely "free" base or defensive indifference, but he timed it quite well with the pitcher looking to home and coming set, and the third baseman not doing much of anything, and got in there pretty easily.

 

With Rosario's lead, jump, speed, and slide, I think the only way they even have a chance to get him out is with a very low throw for a quick tag, which would have been very difficult to achieve  And which would have had a decent chance of hitting the runner, getting past the third baseman, etc., perhaps allowing Rosario to score (exactly what Plouffe achieved on Castellanos on Monday night) or Suzuki to advance to second.  Another potential benefit.  (With the first baseman playing way off the bag too, Suzuki probably should have taken a larger lead once he saw Rosario breaking toward third and the throw going over there, in case the throw got away.  That would be my only criticism of the play.)

 

I really don't know what Molitor is thinking here.  The risk/reward ratio of this decision was probably better than most of our bunts this year.

[Taildragger8791]

I don't get the unwritten rule part of it. I know the Twins are pretty wretched but I still don't expect my team to give up and quit trying only down 4 in the 7th inning. That is pretty far from being out of the game considering there were four separate 4-run innings in this series alone.

 

As for the bonehead aspect, it looked like a pretty sure steal with that aggressive shift on. Players should always try to take advantage and hold opponents accountable for those defensive alignments. Why let them have their way with you? That's silly. The aggression and awareness is the best part of Rosario's game.

 

Also, we may have had our "best" hitter up but Mauer is far from a sure thing right now. For the year he's hitting .250 with runners on base, slugging .313. Overall in May he's "hitting" .182/.262/.255. I'm fine with Rosario taking the initiative to improve the scoring opportunity via weak hit or wild pitch.

 

That said, he still needed to go to AAA to work on his approach at the plate. I really dislike everyone getting their panties in a knot over one of the only players that seems to give a damn actually trying to win.

[DocBauer]

So what happens if Verlander, suddenly much put out, uncorks a wild pitch and Rosario scores from the uncovered, unprotected base he just stole?

 

It would only be one more run...but still...at the time you don't know what is going to happen. Does it ignite the team?

 

Does Rosario then become an aggressive hero for a day?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Monday night, down 5 runs with one out in the 4th inning, Plouffe attempted a straight steal of third with Castellanos playing back.  Plouffe didn't break for third until after the pitcher checked him then started his delivery to the plate, and he would have been out with a better throw from the catcher.  As it was, it was a bad throw, it bounced under the backpedaling Castellanos' glove into left field, and Plouffe scored.  A good aggressive risk to take with Castellanos playing back, which helped cause the bad throw, but it was almost certainly more a risk of an out, given Plouffe's speed and execution.

 

And do you know who was standing at the plate while this happened Monday night?  Rosario.  I'd credit him for paying attention and learning a new trick to try again later in the series, even as the rest of his game was going poorly.

[rghrbek]

 

Monday night, down 5 runs with one out in the 4th inning, Plouffe attempted a straight steal of third with Castellanos playing back.  Plouffe didn't break for third until after the pitcher checked him then started his delivery to the plate, and he would have been out with a better throw from the catcher.  As it was, it was a bad throw, it bounced under the backpedaling Castellanos' glove into left field, and Plouffe scored.  A good aggressive risk to take with Castellanos playing back, which helped cause the bad throw, but it was almost certainly more a risk of an out, given Plouffe's speed and execution.

 

And do you know who was standing at the plate while this happened Monday night?  Rosario.  I'd credit him for paying attention and learning a new trick to try again later in the series, even as the rest of his game was going poorly.

 

Molitor did speak on this during his post game.   He said it was awfully risky, and that "sometimes Trevor thinks he's fast."

However, not nearly as frustrated as he was with Rosario.   My guess he was already annoyed and like Platoon said, this just put him over the edge.

[savvyspy]

 

So what happens if Verlander, suddenly much put out, uncorks a wild pitch and Rosario scores from the uncovered, unprotected base he just stole?

 

It would only be one more run...but still...at the time you don't know what is going to happen. Does it ignite the team?

 

Does Rosario then become an aggressive hero for a day?

The entire point of this game, and one the Twins front office hasn't been able to grasp for decades now, is scoring runs.

 

If a team is going to give you a free base you take it period. Rosario put himself in a better position to score.

 

All of this unwritten rule garbage is just that. Just focus on scoring runs and having your pitchers and defense work on preventing runs and the rest of this sorts itself out.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Rosario was having a bad game and it's almost like he wanted to make it up to the manager by making a smart, heads up play.

[clone52]

 

Ugh.  What risk?  That the pitcher can run down Rosario when he tries to steal?  That you might lose a ballgame?  That might risk your chances of making the playoffs.  The Twins record is so stellar at this point that you'd hate to take a risk.

 

Whats the reward for stealing third in that situation.  A base hit scores you from second either way.  There are 2 outs, so there is no chance of a sacrifice.  The only possible reward is scoring on a wild pitch/passed ball.

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Whats the reward for stealing third in that situation.  A base hit scores you from second either way.  There are 2 outs, so there is no chance of a sacrifice.  The only possible reward is scoring on a wild pitch/passed ball.

what about a base hit to an infielder?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So what happens if Verlander, suddenly much put out, uncorks a wild pitch and Rosario scores from the uncovered, unprotected base he just stole?

 

It would only be one more run...but still...at the time you don't know what is going to happen. Does it ignite the team?

 

Does Rosario then become an aggressive hero for a day?

Great point.  With Rosario and his speed at third, that could change their third baseman shift too and give Mauer a bigger hole to punch through a hit.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Whats the reward for stealing third in that situation.  A base hit scores you from second either way.  There are 2 outs, so there is no chance of a sacrifice.  The only possible reward is scoring on a wild pitch/passed ball.

First of all, on the steal attempt itself, with the low slide and tag attempt, there is a chance the throw gets past the fielder, or hits the runner and goes wild, possibly allowing Rosario to score and/or Suzuki to advance to second before Mauer even bats.

 

And as mentioned above, once Rosario is at third, a hit or error that doesn't leave the infield would also score a run.

 

A fast runner at third probably forces the third baseman to shift less and gives Mauer a bigger hole to hit through.  Or if they stick to their shift, Rosario can take a gigantic lead and score on even the mildest wild pitch or passed ball.

 

Are they massive rewards?  No.  But executed successfully by a fast runner, there wasn't a massive risk of making an out either.

[clone52]

 

what about a base hit to an infielder?

 

that would work too.

 

On the other hand, everyone knew it was only a matter of time before Rosario got sent down.  It wasn't think one play that made it happen.

[TheLeviathan]

For the life of me I'll never understand why a "fair play" unwritten rule says you have to stop trying down by just 3 runs.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

For the life of me I'll never understand why a "fair play" unwritten rule says you have to stop trying down by just 3 runs.  

Actually we were down 4 runs at the time, but only in the 7th inning too.  With two men on, it was already a save situation.  Absolutely should not be an unwritten rule governing that.  Plouffe stole his base down 5 in the 4th inning on Monday night.

[spinowner]

When I read the title of this thread I thought this was one of the sportsmanship-related unwritten rules, like don't do a dramatic bat flip, so I was confused at first.

Yes, there is a time-honored guideline never to make the third out at third base. In fact, Bill James takes it one step further and says never to make ANY out at third base, and I think that's very valid. But on this play there was no out made. What I'm confused about is why Molitor would be bothered by it. It seems to me that this was exactly the type of play he would have made as a player.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Actually we were down 4 runs at the time, but only in the 7th inning too.  With two men on, it was already a save situation.  Absolutely should not be an unwritten rule governing that.  Plouffe stole his base down 5 in the 4th inning on Monday night.

 

Tar and feather that man.  We can't have shenanigans like that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yes, there is a time-honored guideline never to make the third out at third base. In fact, Bill James takes it one step further and says never to make ANY out at third base, and I think that's very valid. But on this play there was no out made.

And not only was there no out made, it wasn't particularly close to an out.  This isn't Miguel Sano rumbling for a triple.  Plouffe's steal of third Monday night was closer to an out than this.  This was a fast runner, watching the third baseman, watching the pitcher, getting a great jump and making a great slide, while the pitcher and third baseman had to play it pretty conservatively on the throw and catch just to prevent further advancement.