The Good, The Bad and the meh. The Twins 20% report.

DaveW · May 10, 2016

We are now more or less 20% into a season which can be described as something between a dumpster fire and the last season of Dexter (read: the worst thing ever)

Things are bad, real bad, and while there is a lot of season left/lots of games left to be played, the Twins have dug themselves in an unenviable hole. Of course the good thing about 20% of the season being over is that 80% still remains. If the Twins can manage to play at a 95-100 win clip the rest of the season they may be able to climb back into this thing, crazier things have happened, I guess.

Here are my grades/observations/random thoughts of the team thus far:

The Good:

Joe Mauer- Grade thus far: A

Confidence I have in him the rest of the season: B+

"The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated." - Joe Mauer.

.420 OBP, .822 OPS. Mauer appears to be "back" whether it's the new shades or simply him finally healthy from concussion syndromes, Mauer has looked like the Mauer of old, which is an elite hitting HOF talent. Critics will still no doubt point to his lack of HR/RBI, but those have never been a part of Mauer's overall game. While it feels like this nice season by Mauer is wasted in an otherwise dud of a year for the Twins, it is nice to watch a great player pad his resume to help his HOF chances. (I think that if he keeps this up this year and has one more year similar it essentially locks him in as a first ballot HOF) I would give him an A for confidence if it weren't for his injury history, please stay healthy Joe!

Byung Ho Park- Grade thus far: A

Confidence I have in him the rest of the season: A

This guy can mash. Things looked a little iffy with his terrible start to the season, but since then Park has absolutely been on fire, and if the Twins weren't in the cellar, would be one of the bigger storylines of the 2016 season MLB wide. In his last 16 games Park has a .320/.386/.700 line with 5 BOMBS. While a 1.000 OPS might be a stretch in his "rookie" season, Park looks primed to be a .880-.920 OPS type guy this year and should only get better. Park up until this point at least looks the part of an impact middle order of the bat for the next several years.

Oswaldo Arcia- Grade thus far: A-

Confidence I have in him the rest of the season: B-

Another guy who was more or less written off prior to the season, Arcia has started this season off strong, almost making people forget about his ugly 2015. His defense will never be pretty, and he will strike out quite a bit so his power will need to continue to produce. However, as of now he is looking like that 30 HR type guy we all thought he was after his 2014 campaign. SSS no doubt, but his OPS against LHP thus far is .788, if he can begin to hit lefties at a solid clip, we are suddenly looking and a real nice corner OF for the foreseeable future.

Miguel Sano- Grade thus far: B

Confidence I have in him the rest of the season: B+

Sophomore slump? Perhaps? SSS? Hopefully. Sano was yet another Twin who got off to a brutal start, however in his last 20 games he has a .824 OPS, and while that isn't where we hope/want Sano (.900+ OPS) that is at least a start. The lack of HR's have been disappointing so far, but that can change at a moments notice. Ideally once Molitor figures out the ideal lineup, (i.e. Park protecting Sano every game!) then Sano can see some more balls to hit. Ultimately, I think Sano will be "fine" and will continue to make the adjustments needed. I haven't touched on defense much in this article at all thus far, but Sano in RF has been a joke/disaster/horrible dream, thankfully Sano looked pretty damn good in his limited use at 3rd base, hopefully sooner than later Sano is the everyday 3rd baseman and the Twins can start winning again.

Eduardo Nunez- Grade thus far: B+

Confidence I have in him the rest of the season: C

I was against bringing him back, but I was clearly wrong on this one. Nunez has stepped up big time at the plate due to injuries/ineffectiveness of some of the other guys. I have serious doubts he can keep up anything close to what he is doing at the plate, but even so, I don't think a .720-.740 OPS is out of the question, which is pretty good for a backup INF/bench guy. His defense though...... Yeesh. But on the bright side he is this teams best base stealer somehow.

Brian Dozier: Grade thus far: C+

Confidence I have in him the rest of the season: B

Dozier is borderline good/meh at this stage, but his approach at the plate has looked better as of late. The defense continues to be there, and ideally he can get his OPS up to the .740 range with 20-25 HR that the Twins need out of him ultimately.

Tyler Duffey: Grade thus far: B+

Confidence I have in him the rest of the season: B

I never understood why Duffey wasn't given first crack at the rotation out of spring training, he was nothing short of the Twins best pitcher down the stretch in 2015, and when finally given his shot in 2016 he appears to have not have missed a beat. There has been a lot of talk about how he needs to "refine his pitches" etc, but it's hard to argue with his results thus far. 17 K in 17 IP makes him the defacto Ace at this stage. Hopefully he can keep it up and be a solid #2/very good #3 type for the Twins for the next several seasons...they need it.

Jose Berrios: Grade thus far: B-

Confidence I have in him the rest of the season: B+

Maybe a little early to grade Berrios, but hey, we need some bright spots! His first start was a bit of a stinker, but that happens with rookies, his second start was much more encouraging. The kid clearly has some very good stuff and can miss a lot of bats, something that is quite rare with Twins SP over the past several seasons. The control issues that have plagued him may keep him from becoming that "true ace" but even then, him being a solid #2 for the Twins is a huge, huge huge win. Berrios should only continue to get better.

Trevor May: Grade thus far: B+

Confidence I have in him the rest of the season: A

Like everyone else on this team, he had some hiccups early, but has settled in and has looked the part of a shut down RP since then. His k rate is elite, and if he can cut back on the walks a bit you could be looking at one of the better RP in all of baseball. With that said, I would really, really like to see May get another shot at the rotation, I think he has the upside of a #2 type when all said and done, which is more important IMO then a closer/shut down 8th guy.

Fernando Abad: Grade thus far: A

Confidence I have in him the rest of the season: B

Hard to argue with the results thus far, I do wish Molly would use Abad a bit more in high leverage spots. (Or at least earlier in this season)

Ervin Santana: Grade thus far: B-

Confidence I have in him the rest of the season: B

Injury aside, Santana has looked "solid" and looks like we can count on him to be a decent #3 or good #4 type for this rotation.

Michael Tonkin: Grade thus far: B

Confidence I have in him the rest of the season: B

Much like Arcia and Mauer, people were ready to write Tonkin off. It appears that for Tonkin the 18th (seemingly) time is a charm for him in the majors. The K rate is there and the results are there. Hopefully he can keep it up.

The Meh:

Ricky Nolasco: Grade thus far: C+

Confidence I have in him the rest of the season:D+

Like Dozier, probably bordering the Good/Meh line, but I am tossing Nolasco in the "meh" pile due to my lack of confidence in him moving forward. The results have been "meh" but that is leaps and bounds better than what he has been for this team prior. I am hoping and praying he can keep this up for another 10 starts or so, so the Twins may be able to trade the once thought un-tradeable man.

Trevor Plouffe: Grade thus far: C

Confidence I have in him the rest of the season:C+

It's not Plouffe's fault that Sano should be the everyday 3rd baseman for this team moving forward. However he would make the Sano in RF pill much easier to swallow if he was having a better year. By no means is Plouffe one of the biggest problems with this team, but a .705 OPS and only 2 HR is a bit disappointing in a year in which Plouffe was primed to take some strides forward (and ideally up his trade value)

Danny Santana:Grade thus far: C

Confidence I have in him the rest of the season:C

Santana was another afterthought more or less coming into this season. The bat has been closer to ugly then "meh" but he has stepped up in CF and everywhere else the Twins needed him due to injuries and the Buxton issues. Santana likely will never be a force with the bat again, but his versatility and ability to play nearly every position makes him a nice cheap option to have on your bench as a 25th man type. I really wish he could improve his base stealing though, 5 of 9 is bad.

Jorge Polanco: Grade thus far: C+

Confidence I have in him the rest of the season:C+

File this under too early to tell. However Polanco has looked "good" in his very SSS this year. If he can get some playing time maybe he ends up in the "good" pile by the all star break.

Kevin Jepsen: Grade thus far C-

Confidence I have in him the rest of the season:B

Jepsen is borderline meh/bad at this point, but I am going to give him the benefit of the doubt that he turns it around (plus we have plenty of "bad" to get to anyways)

Tom Bruno:

Bruno took a TON of heat early in the season with the unworldy strike outs, and while this offense is far from clicking and has it's issues, he should get some credit IMO for guys like Park, Nunez and maybe even Mauer.

The Bad

Oh boy here we go...

Eduardo Escobar: Grade thus far D

Confidence I have in him the rest of the season:B-

Ugh, why Escobar why? We were all expecting big things out of Escobar this season, simply put the bat and glove have yet to be there. I have confidence that he turns it around (please!) but it's hard to argue that he has been anything but bad, especially as of late (.408 OPS in his last 20 games) Again, it's more than likely he turns it around, but he has certainly been "bad" thus far.

Phil Hughes: Grade thus far D+

Confidence I have in him the rest of the season:C

The results SUCK thus far, so much for that big bounce back season eh? The good news is his FIP is mearly "meh" instead of terrible and his BB rate should drop a bit. Hopefully Hughes can get it together and at least be a back end of the rotation type, heading into his ill advised 3 year extension next season, Hughes simply is too expensive/takes up too many resources to be a bullpen/Nolasco 2014-2015 type moving forward. If he can get to a 4.00-4.10 ERA with 200 IP a year, he at least sort of "earns" his salary at the back end of the rotation moving forward.

Tommy Milone: Grade thus far D-

Confidence I have in him the rest of the season: D

I have nothing against Tommy Milone, just at this stage I don't think he has any role on a team like the Twins moving forward. Hopefully he can find an NL team he can "stick" with for a few years.

Kyle Gibson: Grade thus far: F

Confidence I have in him the rest of the season: C

Ugh, Gibson, you were supposed to be an anchor/sure thing in this rotation! Instead the walks have been up, the strike outs down and the results terrible. Hopefully it's all due to his current injury and this isn't a sign of things to come. The Twins need him to be a middle of the rotation guy moving forward.

Eddie Rosario: Grade thus far: F

Confidence I have in him the rest of the season: C

I mean, at least the defense has been good? Eddie arguably has been the most disappointing Twin in 2016 and he is starting to mimick Arcias 2015 campaign. Bad pitch selection, no walks, and the power isn't near enough to make up for those. Hopefully Eddie turns it around ASAP.

Byron Buxton: Grade thus far: D-

Confidence I have in him the rest of the season: B

Bonus: Confidence I have in him the rest of his career: A

It's not Buxton's fault that he struggled, it was clear to most anyone that he wasn't even close to ready for major league pitching. I'm not real worried or panicked about Buxton at all however, he is mashing AAA and I am confident he ends up coming back up and hitting much better in the majors sometime around memorial day. However, the results have been poor. No two ways about it.

Casey Fien: Grade thus far: F

Confidence I have in him the rest of the season: THANK YOU DODGERS!!!

No comment.

Kurt Suzuki: Grade thus far: D-

Confidence I have in him the rest of the season:D

I mean Kurt basically who we thought he was, I guess he could be a decent back up catcher in the majors (read: 30-40 games a year) but there is zero reason why he should be a starter or even a half time catcher in the majors.

John Ryan Murphy: Grade thus far: F

Confidence I have in him the rest of the season:C-

I know I was firmly against the Hicks for Murph trade this off-season, but it's hard to give him anything but an F at this point. Disaster at the plate, disaster behind the dish. The good news is, he is still young, showed some potential in NY and still should at least end up as a decent back up catcher. However, the results thus far? Yuck.

Paul Molitor: Grade thus far: C-

Confidence I have in him the rest of the season:C

It's not all Molitor's fault by any means, and I do like his accountability/likeability etc, but his weird lineups (Santana leading off, Plouffe hitting 4th, Park hitting 6th etc) just don't make any sense to me. Additionally he has left starters in (Nolasco) too long, and has mismanaged the bullpen. Molitor did have a good season last year, so I am hoping he can turn it around.

Terry Ryan: Grade thus far: D+

Confidence I have in him the rest of the season:D

The only saving grace that is keeping Ryan from having an F thus far is two things:

1. The Park signing

2. He didn't make another dumb Nolasco/Hughes extension type signing this off-season.

However everything else has been a disaster. The catcher position continues to be nothing but a black hole, having no real plan B for CF has hurt the Twins, the Sano in RF experiment has been a disaster, and the "Fien to fix the bullpen" strategy has worked out about as well as we all assumed. I have zero confidence that Ryan is the man to rebuild this team to be a world series contender or anything close, the only reason why he doesn't get an F in confidence moving forward is because he isn't the San Diego GM who would mortgage the next 10 years for some overpriced mediocre talent.

Depressing stray thought:

Was watching the Nationals game last night, Ramos has a .366 average and a .915 OPS. I wonder what Matt Capps is up to these days?

The silver lining:

I mean, things really can't get that much worse, can they?

Positive thoughts:

Duffey and Berrios at least look like they could give the Twins a nice start to a real actual front end of the rotation, I would still prefer they go get a Cueto type to "lock down" the ace spot. But Duffey and Berrios at least look like a changing of the guard.

The bullpen can only get better as they are forced to get younger and younger.

Buxton

Mauer

Sano

Park

Dozier

Arcia

Could be a nice looking lineup by the all star break.

Mauer!!!

Thoughts?

Mike Sixel · May 10, 2016

I agree with most of that....but I think Dozier is a bit too high, and Molitor is waaaaaaaaaaaay too high. He has, imo, no idea how to manage the tactics of the game, which is all we can observe. His refusal to PH for Suzuki late in games hurts my brain even more than his love of the free out of the sacrifice bunt.

I think I have more confidence in Berrios than you.

Assuming they move Sano back to DH or 3B, I'd give him an A- or even A for the rest of the year.

DaveW · May 10, 2016

I agree with most of that....but I think Dozier is a bit too high, and Molitor is waaaaaaaaaaaay too high. He has, imo, no idea how to manage the tactics of the game, which is all we can observe. His refusal to PH for Suzuki late in games hurts my brain even more than his love of the free out of the sacrifice bunt.

I think I have more confidence in Berrios than you.

Assuming they move Sano back to DH or 3B, I'd give him an A- or even A for the rest of the year.

I personally don't think Molitor OR Ryan are the right guys to lead this team in their respective spots. However I think Ryan is much more to "blame" for this disaster than Molly, but I do agree, his love of sacrifice bunts, and refusal to PH for Suzuki is um....perplexing to say the least.

I have a lot of confidence in Berrios, I just don't think he is a bonafide "Ace", as in one of the best potential 15-20 SP in all of baseball. I think his ceiling is right behind that class though, I could of course be wrong, and would be glad I was.

Vanimal46 · May 10, 2016

Very well done Dave! Like Mike said, I'd give Sano an A- to an A the rest of the season. Especially if the RF experiment is over....

My confidence in Dozier is lower than yours - C+ on a good day. I think he should be seriously considered for trading away and give the spot to Polanco.

Bonus question: Confidence level for the rest of TR's tenure as GM - F...

Richie the Rally Goat · May 10, 2016

At first I thought Man Jepsen is overrated, then I thought "well, if he wasn't the closer would I have such high expectations?" The answer is Nope, he just has no business being the closer, it's not his fault. He's clearly Meh but that's still one of the brighter spots in the bullpen.

Dozier is overrated however. He's improved from F- to D, but he's had some fielding gaffes to go with a long hitting drought carrying over from 2015. I am skeptical of his current hot hitting streak.

nytwinsfan · May 10, 2016

I found it hard to argue with any of this.

DaveW · May 10, 2016

At first I thought Man Jepsen is overrated, then I thought "well, if he wasn't the closer would I have such high expectations?" The answer is Nope, he just has no business being the closer, it's not his fault. He's clearly Meh but that's still one of the brighter spots in the bullpen.

Dozier is overrated however. He's improved from F- to D, but he's had some fielding gaffes to go with a long hitting drought carrying over from 2015. I am skeptical of his current hot hitting streak.

A D for Dozier? I think that's a little overkill. If Dozier were a no field RF type I could sort of see that? But Dozier plays 2nd, has that 20-25 HR pop and still has close to a 100 OPS+

That objectively is still "pretty good" for a 2B IMO. Could he be better? No doubt, but a D is a little harsh IMO

DaveW · May 10, 2016

Bonus question: Confidence level for the rest of TR's tenure as GM - F...

I can't give him an F, only because I am pretty confident he won't do something monumentally stupid like trade away Sano or Buxton "just because"

I give him a D moving forward, a D- when it comes to confidence that he can build a world championship caliber roster at this stage of his career.

mikelink45 · May 10, 2016

when I read this I am saddened. There are places to agree and disagree, but no place for optimism for this years team.

We have a wonderful team of DH's and if we ever get to a place where no one has to go in to the field we will be champs.

DaveW · May 10, 2016

when I read this I am saddened. There are places to agree and disagree, but no place for optimism for this years team.

We have a wonderful team of DH's and if we ever get to a place where no one has to go in to the field we will be champs.

I mean there is optimism in certain areas with certain players, overall, the team is pretty young, and even though there are some ugly looking contracts on the books, those are mostly coming to an end sooner rather than later anyways.

If you are talking about optimism for this team to make a playoff run, I must agree, unless they can somehow get back to .500 by the all star break, which is a tough hill to climb.

TheLeviathan · May 10, 2016

A D for Dozier? I think that's a little overkill. If Dozier were a no field RF type I could sort of see that? But Dozier plays 2nd, has that 20-25 HR pop and still has close to a 100 OPS+

That objectively is still "pretty good" for a 2B IMO. Could he be better? No doubt, but a D is a little harsh IMO

Dozier has absolutely no business in the "good" category so far. He's been a mess.

DaveW · May 10, 2016

Dozier has absolutely no business in the "good" category so far. He's been a mess.

Yeah, if I had to re-do this I would probably toss him in the "meh" category. When I wrote it I started with the "good" and tossed him in there since I knew the meh and bad categories would be so....bottom heavy so to speak.

Pitz · May 10, 2016

Good thoughts.

The grades seem rather generous for the team being somewhere between a dumpster fire and the worst thing ever. Your average player grade is about a "C" which means this team has been far less than the sum of its parts. Maybe that is the case? Maybe that says something about the manager? I don't know.

rghrbek · May 10, 2016

Good thoughts.
The grades seem rather generous for the team being somewhere between a dumpster fire and the worst thing ever. Your average player grade is about a "C" which means this team has been far less than the sum of its parts. Maybe that is the case? Maybe that says something about the manager? I don't know.

This teams overall grade has to be an "F" right? Despite some of the good things, the expectation by many was to be over .500. It was not my expectation, but I did not envision this clown show.

What is your overall grade DW?

Seth Stohs · May 10, 2016

Thoughts?

Thoughts... this should have been posted as a Blog and could have been promoted, but we should get a lot of comments here. This is well done and reasonable.

DaveW · May 10, 2016

Thoughts... this should have been posted as a Blog and could have been promoted, but we should get a lot of comments here. This is well done and reasonable.

I have never posted a "Blog" on TD so I am not sure how that whole process really works, I kinda assumed the owners/mods etc just picked ones and tossed them under the "articles tab"? Is there a way for me to copy/paste or one of you guys to copy/paste over to blog/article?

TheLeviathan · May 10, 2016

Yeah, if I had to re-do this I would probably toss him in the "meh" category. When I wrote it I started with the "good" and tossed him in there since I knew the meh and bad categories would be so....bottom heavy so to speak.

That I can understand, I think he deserves "meh".

DaveW · May 10, 2016

Good thoughts.
The grades seem rather generous for the team being somewhere between a dumpster fire and the worst thing ever. Your average player grade is about a "C" which means this team has been far less than the sum of its parts. Maybe that is the case? Maybe that says something about the manager? I don't know.

When looking at the results overall, it's hard to give this team anything other than a D (at best) overall, they are the 2nd worst team in baseball and unless I am mistaken are off to the worst start in the history of the franchise, being 14 games back and 15 games under .500 like 30 games into the season is just poor, poor all around.

As far as the average grade being a C, perhaps I weighted things a little wrong here and there, however the "bad" have really, really been weighing this team down: i.e. Buxton, Rosario, Suzuki, Murphy, Gibson, Escobar, Fien and Milone's performances thus have really killed this team.

The good news is that it's not unreasonable to think that Buxton, Rosario, Esxobar and Gibson at least all end up in the "good" category by the end of the year.

Additionally, I think some of the "good" haven't been weighted accordingly as well, I list both Duffey and Berrios in the "good" category with good grades, however combined they have only pitched in 5 games (i.e the same number the "bad" Gibson has pitched in alone) Plus "good" guys like Tonkin and Abad haven't been used in the roles/important roles yet that I think they should have been.

It doesn't help that some of the guys getting the most at bats or IP on this team find themselves in the "meh" category as well.

As bad as things have been, I still refuse to believe that this is a "real" 100 loss or even 90 loss team, they still seem like a 74-78 win team in my eyes (down from 77-85 I suggested pre season). Now they very well may lose 90+ this year, but that is likely because of this horrendous start.

Maybe the "realistic" target at this point is to hope the Twins go 68-63 down the stretch, that would put them 5 games over .500 the rest of the way and get them to end the season with a 76-86 record?

Random crunching of numbers:

Going .500 down the stretch more or less ends them with a 90 loss season.

Going 71-60 down the stretch gets them to 78-83

Going 73-58 gets them to .500

Which means they need to go about 79-52 down the stretch to be "playoff caliber" team, which means they need to play like a 98 win team the rest of the way.

Again it's no IMPOSSIBLE, but literally everything will likely need to break right (Buxton back strong, Sano start mashing bombs, Park keep hitting bombs, Mauer .420 OPS, Dozier start hitting bombs, Arcia keep it up, Berrios and Duffey both keep being studs, Santana/Hughes/Nolasco get it together) and a big trade or two would likely need to happen as well.

My personal chances on the above happening:

Twins win at least 70 games: 60%

Twins win at least 72 games: 50%

Twins win at least 74 games: 40%

Twins win at least 78 games: 20%

Twins win at least 81 games: 10%

Twins make the playoffs (86-88 games): 2%

Otto von Ballpark · May 10, 2016

"Meh"?

If Andrew Albers makes his way back onto the roster, you might have to add a category for "Eh?"

TheLeviathan · May 10, 2016

"Meh"?

If Andrew Albers makes his way back onto the roster, you might have to add a category for "Eh."

If that happened I'd lean more towards a "WTF"

Otto von Ballpark · May 10, 2016

If that happened I'd lean more towards a "WTF"

Okay, how about "WTF, eh?"

jokin · May 10, 2016

When looking at the results overall, it's hard to give this team anything other than a D (at best) overall, they are the 2nd worst team in baseball and unless I am mistaken are off to the worst start in the history of the franchise, being 14 games back and 15 games under .500 like 30 games into the season is just poor, poor all around.

As far as the average grade being a C, perhaps I weighted things a little wrong here and there, however the "bad" have really, really been weighing this team down: i.e. Buxton, Rosario, Suzuki, Murphy, Gibson, Escobar, Fien and Milone's performances thus have really killed this team.

The good news is that it's not unreasonable to think that Buxton, Rosario, Esxobar and Gibson at least all end up in the "good" category by the end of the year.

Additionally, I think some of the "good" haven't been weighted accordingly as well, I list both Duffey and Berrios in the "good" category with good grades, however combined they have only pitched in 5 games (i.e the same number the "bad" Gibson has pitched in alone) Plus "good" guys like Tonkin and Abad haven't been used in the roles/important roles yet that I think they should have been.

It doesn't help that some of the guys getting the most at bats or IP on this team find themselves in the "meh" category as well.

As bad as things have been, I still refuse to believe that this is a "real" 100 loss or even 90 loss team, they still seem like a 74-78 win team in my eyes (down from 77-85 I suggested pre season). Now they very well may lose 90+ this year, but that is likely because of this horrendous start.

Maybe the "realistic" target at this point is to hope the Twins go 68-63 down the stretch, that would put them 5 games over .500 the rest of the way and get them to end the season with a 76-86 record?

Random crunching of numbers:

Going .500 down the stretch more or less ends them with a 90 loss season.

Going 71-60 down the stretch gets them to 78-83

Going 73-58 gets them to .500

Which means they need to go about 79-52 down the stretch to be "playoff caliber" team, which means they need to play like a 98 win team the rest of the way.

Again it's no IMPOSSIBLE, but literally everything will likely need to break right (Buxton back strong, Sano start mashing bombs, Park keep hitting bombs, Mauer .420 OPS, Dozier start hitting bombs, Arcia keep it up, Berrios and Duffey both keep being studs, Santana/Hughes/Nolasco get it together) and a big trade or two would likely need to happen as well.

My personal chances on the above happening:

Twins win at least 70 games: 60%
Twins win at least 72 games: 50%
Twins win at least 74 games: 40%
Twins win at least 78 games: 20%
Twins win at least 81 games: 10%
Twins make the playoffs (86-88 games): 2%

I love, and am feeding off of, your optimism. (Clearly time off for reflection is a tonic--> Tanned, rested and ready?)

And not to leave out other surprises that might come to the rescue that absolutely no one is counting on at this point. IE- I would like to know one person who guessed correctly on what an impact that Duffey had in the stretch run last season. So many guys/developments which possibly could surprise- Rosario, Kepler, Polanco, Chargois, Boshers, Meyer, Plouffe traded for an impact vet, May to closer or returned to the rotation, etc.

DaveW · May 10, 2016

I love, and am feeding off of, your optimism. (Clearly time off for reflection is a tonic--> Tanned, rested and ready?)

And not to leave out other surprises that might come to the rescue that absolutely no one is counting on at this point. IE- I would like to know one person who guessed correctly on what an impact that Duffey had in the stretch run last season. So many guys/developments which possibly could surprise- Rosario, Kepler, Polanco, Chargois, Boshers, Meyer, Plouffe traded for an impact vet, etc.

Haha, it's kind of a sad state of affairs when a 2% prognostication to make the playoffs is "Optimistic" how things change in 31 games (when pre season I would have put that number around 25-30%)

I still believe it's possible, I doubled down on my stupid pre-season and tossed $100 last week in Vegas on the Twins to win it all at 125:1 odds.

I mean, if they are a 2% shot to make a miracle run to make the playoffs (in my eyes) I guess what stops them then?

For them to make a "legit" run at it though, Berrios and Duffey absolutely need to pitch like top of the rotation guys, and someone else likely is going to have to pitch out of their minds as well (i.e. Santana the last 5-6 weeks of 2015)

Of course the biggest worry still is the bottom of the lineup and the bullpen, the lineup can fix itself if Rosario, Escobar and Buxton can all start hitting (I have zero hope for catcher at this point). But the bullpen....eesh, that is going to take a miracle. Or a healthy Perkins at the very least.

Platoon · May 10, 2016

Among many good observation you touched on Sano getting some protection. Some teams would put someone like Arcia behind him against a RH. And obviously Park is a good choice. But jeez Louise, if I am an opposing pitcher and I can chose between Sano, or Plouffe? Toss in the fact that Plouffe has obviously not recovered from his injury, and Sano might not see three pitches to hit in a week.

Reider · May 10, 2016

Great work DaveW!

The team just hasn't gotten going yet because there's too many players under-performing. Until that changes, the Twins will continue to lose a lot of ball games.

Richie the Rally Goat · May 11, 2016

A D for Dozier? I think that's a little overkill. If Dozier were a no field RF type I could sort of see that? But Dozier plays 2nd, has that 20-25 HR pop and still has close to a 100 OPS+

That objectively is still "pretty good" for a 2B IMO. Could he be better? No doubt, but a D is a little harsh IMO

in 2016 he has a 94 ops+ and admittedly too small sample -2.1 uzr. He might be ok, but I expected more

stringer bell · May 11, 2016

I'm catching up on today's game while checking out some of the other threads. The Twins have been brutal and their flaws exposed. A little better luck plus regression to the mean will not save the season, but I doubt they will be an embarrassment. Thoughts on a few players:

Santana-Should be a utility guy, but right now he's the backup plan in center. I expect he'll hit much better than 2015 and much worse than 2014. Defense is passable in center. I'm OK with Danny being the principle CF until a truly ready Buxton returns. Santana should get enough infield and bunt hits and steal enough bases to provide some offense and the team lacks speed, especially with Buck in the minors. Santana should be hitting in the bottom of the order, not the top.

Rosario--As was widely predicted, Eddie has regressed. He's still young and he has some very good tools, but he has to be more selective to be a regular outfielder, especially on a corner. For now, he's my fourth OF, getting frequent starts at one of the three OF spots and a defensive replacement if the Twins ever have a lead late in the game. Rosario might benefit from a return to Rochester, in which case I think he should be swapped out for Max Kepler.

Arcia--He has struck out three times in three at-bats, but Oswaldo has improved in almost every element of the game. He's clearly beat out Rosario for playing time at this point and has shown improved concentration and focus as well as being in much better shape than last year.

Dozier--Low batting average, but some signs are pointing up. He is walking more and striking out less, he's a good base runner and a pretty good defender. He's gotten his OPS over .700, which is better than Sano BTW. I still believe Dozier can improve and I remember 2014 enough to not be offended if he is in the top of the order.

Sano--Maybe it's the move the right field. Maybe playing baseball is a little harder than he made it look last year, Sano has been less than great as a hitter and he's struggled as an outfielder. I won't place blame, but perhaps it is asking too much to have a 22 year old hit cleanup and be expected to hit more than 30 bombs and drive in over 100.

Eris · May 11, 2016

Depressing stray thought:
Was watching the Nationals game last night, Ramos has a .366 average and a .915 OPS. I wonder what Matt Capps is up to these days?

Matthew Capps signed a minor league contract with the Diamondbacks earlier this year. He had a brief stint with the Baves last year in spring training and for a short period in their minors.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/4296/matt-capps

He has appeared in 2 games in AAA this year.

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=448165#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL

Teflon · May 11, 2016

Eddie Rosario, skilled in penmanship, converted his F into a B before showing it to his folks.

howeda7 · May 11, 2016

The Twins are on pace to go 40.5-121.5. We're half a game away '62 Mets....We're comin!

Sign In

The Good, The Bad and the meh. The Twins 20% report.

Recommended Posts

Archived

Member Statistics

Prospect News & Highlights

Recent News

Notes & Rumors

Recent Blog Entries

Recent Status Updates