Article: What's Next For Byron Buxton?

[laloesch]

 

He needs AB'S...lots of them.  He needs to get some quality AB'S to get his confidence up.  You don't ascend to the Major League's as Buxton did without being a big time talent.  Like Yogi said "Baseball is ninety percent mental. The other half is physical."  He has the physical tools.  Time to work on what is between the ears. I truly think it is all mental with him.  WIN TWINS!!!

 

 

I don't think it has anything to do with confidence.  Discipline and pitch recognition coaching is what Buxton desperately needs.  The same goes for Rosario, Sano and Arcia (to a lesser extent).   All these new callups have really struggled in this regard.  

Edited May 4, 2016 by laloesch

[tobi0040]

I don't know that our 40 man is really that full. For example, given the depth at their positions, Pat Dean and Kennys Vargas have virtually no future with this club, yet still have 40-man roster spots. And with Berrios added, there are no imminent prospect promotions that will require a 40 man spot either (and we may have a player on the 60 day DL by that time too).

Yeah. Like most things, it should not be the problem that it is.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

This forum would have exploded if Buxton was traded--even if for Trout!

If Buxton were swapped for Trout, my butt would have exploded because monkeys would have been flying out of it. 

[dxpavelka]

 

 I'm still not sure you will find many/any star level players that began their careers as poorly as Buxton has at the plate.

Start with Mike Schmidt.

[John Kelsey]

2-4 with two doubles today. 

 

That brings him to a .302 AVG and .874 OPS at AAA. 

[John Kelsey]

 

Very good to hear. If past is prologue, Santana probably has at most another 2-3 weeks of reasonably competent play before we can't run him out there any more.  Maybe Buxton will be ready for his next audition by that time. 

 

While I agree that Santana will probably hit a wall soon, I'd still leave Buxton in Rochester for longer than 2-3 weeks. 

 

What I don't understand is how Buxton can be so terrible at the MLB level and just immediately regain his confidence and start hitting at AAA. I realize it's a big jump, but not the .400 OPS jump like it has been for him. Has to just be a nerves/confidence thing, right?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Start with Mike Schmidt.

Mike Schmidt started out with a low average and lots of strikeouts, true, but even as a rookie he was providing tons of walks and power, making him almost a league-average hitter overall (95 wRC+ as a rookie) despite a low .249 BABIP (his career BABIP would be .280).  That's not a comparable career start to Buxton (48 wRC+ and trending down).

 

Besides, a hitter with the profile of Buxton, starting his career with the average and K's of rookie Mike Schmidt, but without the walks, power, or "bad luck" suggested by a low BABIP, is not something from which to draw encouragement.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

What I don't understand is how Buxton can be so terrible at the MLB level and just immediately regain his confidence and start hitting at AAA. I realize it's a big jump, but not the .400 OPS jump like it has been for him. Has to just be a nerves/confidence thing, right?

Hopefully, but yeah, the disparity seems pretty extreme.  Although his hitting success wasn't quite so immediate at AAA this year -- as noted, through 7 games at AAA, he had a .608 OPS and a 32% K rate down there.  Good to see him have a few solid games in a row now.

 

But the disparity does sort of complicate his re-promotion schedule.  Not quite as simple as posting a good stat line down there for X amount of time...

[tobi0040]

 

2-4 with two doubles today. 

 

That brings him to a .302 AVG and .874 OPS at AAA. 

 

No k's and a BB to boot.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

If Buxton were swapped for Trout, my butt would have exploded because monkeys would have been flying out of it. 

Addendum: Rally Monkeys. 

[Ncgo4]

Buxton in his brief time in AAA did well, but only 55 AB's. I sure hope this turn they give him adequate time to get fully tested and comfortable before throwing him back into the fire. He's our best prospect let's not mismanage him into oblivion.

[shs_59]

1) It Was NEVER right not even in any way shape or form to Compare Buxton to Bryce Harper or Mike Trout or even to say he'll "follow in their footsteps"

 

What the bleep is that bullsh1t  who-EVER came up with such a ludicrous statement

I've been saying for 2 1/2 years Buxton is NOT Trout nor Harper not close.

 

2.) The Twins flat out rushed him at nearly every level.  Which i've also been saying for 2+ years.

 

3.) Buxton gets hurt a lot in the Minors.

  WHICH is OBVIOUSLY MORE REASON to SLOW THINGS f'ing DOWN with him NOT Speed them up as the Twins chose to do.

Which makes no F'ing sense what so ever.

 

4. )  I was dead on right with Aaron Hicks and his Question of MLB readiness 2 and 3 years ago.  NOT NICK NELSON who declared him all but our next torii hunter!

 

5.) The Twins will regret rushing all of :  Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and possibly Brian Dozier and Max Kepler   .....  Dozier is feeling the affects ( BA ave down)

 

You would of thought they would of learned their lesson With Aaron Hicks 

 

[Mr. Brooks]

1) It Was NEVER right not even in any way shape or form to Compare Buxton to Bryce Harper or Mike Trout or even to say he'll "follow in their footsteps"

 

What the bleep is that bullsh1t who-EVER came up with such a ludicrous statement

I've been saying for 2 1/2 years Buxton is NOT Trout nor Harper not close.

 

2.) The Twins flat out rushed him at nearly every level. Which i've also been saying for 2+ years.

 

3.) Buxton gets hurt a lot in the Minors.

WHICH is OBVIOUSLY MORE REASON to SLOW THINGS f'ing DOWN with him NOT Speed them up as the Twins chose to do.

Which makes no F'ing sense what so ever.

 

4. ) I was dead on right with Aaron Hicks and his Question of MLB readiness 2 and 3 years ago. NOT NICK NELSON who declared him all but our next torii hunter!

 

5.) The Twins will regret rushing all of : Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and possibly Brian Dozier and Max Kepler ..... Dozier is feeling the affects ( BA ave down)

 

You would of thought they would of learned their lesson With Aaron Hicks

I agree with some of that, but in what way was Dozier rushed?

He was 25 years old and had more than 1600 milb plate appearances as a 4 year college guy.

[shs_59]

 

I agree with some of that, but in what way was Dozier rushed?
He was 25 years old and had more than 1600 milb plate appearances as a 4 year college guy.

Yes, you are right on with saying that.

 

But I believe Dozier has about a total of 45- 50 games in AAA..... with a cumulative total of 225 AB's

 

I remember Twins called him up out of desperation of another miserable season to Spark plug the offense So IT IS PLENTY defensible in this situation.

 

But i was planning/ hoping Brian would of seen another 200+ AAA AB's... 

Edited May 5, 2016 by shs_59

[Mr. Brooks]

Yes, you are right on with saying that.

 

But I believe Dozier has about a total of 45- 50 games in AAA..... with a cumulative total of 225 AB's

 

I remember Twins called him up out of desperation of another miserable season to Spark plug the offense So IT IS PLENTY defensible in this situation.

 

But i was planning/ hoping Brian would of seen another 200+ AAA AB's...

Personally, I don't separate AAA from AA much. I dont think it's really a jump. AAA is watered down with a bunch of AAAA talent, and minor league lifers with no shot, like Toby Gardenhire.

[Rosterman]

He as kinda forced into the centerfield environs last season (who else was there). 

 

He does have blazing speed and Carew and Molly and others have been working with him. But that doesn't work if he doesn't get on base. Bunting is a skill and you have to have a certain comfort level. As well as slapping the ball. Buxton seems to want to work on just his natural hitting more so than develop things that may keep him from adding to his own personal strengths. That's a tough call with players these days (see the Twins and Carlos Gomez, for example, where they tried to work on his speed rather than jsut hitting skills).

 

Buxton IS also young. He has had the big league experience. He has to learn that there is no necessary showboating, just getting the job done. And it is a team sport.

 

I think he will be more than fine. He has to be as good as Span, better than Revere (whom everyone seems to hate, but the guy gets on base and steals them...what more can you ask there).

 

Now let's talk Kepler, also in a similar overmatched boat and coming up on being out-of-options sooner rather than later and needing a place in the outfield.

 

[jimmer]

'I think he will be more than fine. He has to be as good as Span, better than Revere (whom everyone seems to hate, but the guy gets on base and steals them...what more can you ask there)'

 

Span is very under-rated.  He was as a Twin by both the fan base and the media. He still is in a lot of ways.

 

Revere has only recently started getting on base at a decent clip.  His career OBP is still under .330 and 24 points below Span's career OBP.  And even if one really cared about SBs, he's also only eclipsed 30 SBs once.

 

And Span was always the better CF (even before taking into account Revere's noodle arm).  Span just isn't flashy and doesn't have a big smile.

 

I'm not sure there's any way to say that, as an overall player, Buxton HAS to be as good as Span.  I'd be happy with that and not sure he'll ever get there.

Edited May 5, 2016 by jimmer

[Mr. Brooks]

Yes, Span is a quiet guy.

And a prototypical leadoff hitter and solid defensive center fielder.

 

We've traded Gomez, Span, Revere and Hicks for:

1 year of JJ Hardy, a few terrifying innings of Jim Hoey, 7 bad innings from Alex Meyer, some hilarious excuses from Vanimal, a good but miscast Trevor May, and a catcher who can't catch, or hit.

It really is amazing.

[dxpavelka]

 

Mike Schmidt started out with a low average and lots of strikeouts, true, but even as a rookie he was providing tons of walks and power, making him almost a league-average hitter overall (95 wRC+ as a rookie) despite a low .249 BABIP (his career BABIP would be .280).  That's not a comparable career start to Buxton (48 wRC+ and trending down).

 

Besides, a hitter with the profile of Buxton, starting his career with the average and K's of rookie Mike Schmidt, but without the walks, power, or "bad luck" suggested by a low BABIP, is not something from which to draw encouragement.

Buxton is also younger today than Schmidt was when he debuted and to this point has 300 fewer career plate appearances than Schmidt did by the end of his rookie year so I'm thinking there may still be some time and hope for the lad.  I'm less concerned about Schmidt's Babip than I am encouraged by the fact that Buxton is hovering near the league average in that overhyped area.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm less concerned about Schmidt's Babip than I am encouraged by the fact that Buxton is hovering near the league average in that overhyped area.

I think you and I have had this discussion before. Being league average in BABIP is actually a negative indicator if your overall production is poor.  It means you are getting "normal" results on-contact -- you just aren't making much contact, which for MLB hitters is generally a harder problem to reverse than making outs in the field.

 

And again, BABIP is not really a metric or anything to be "hyped" it is just a shortcut for gauging the relationship between batting average and strikeouts, something that looking at average or strikeouts alone won't necessarily tell you.

[Loosey]

 

No k's and a BB to boot.

He also has multi-hit games in 5 of his last 9.  So hopefully turning a corner and regaining some confidence.  Another month of this and maybe we will see a different looking Buxton in a Twins uniform by mid-June.

[John Kelsey]

 

1) It Was NEVER right not even in any way shape or form to Compare Buxton to Bryce Harper or Mike Trout or even to say he'll "follow in their footsteps"

 

What the bleep is that bullsh1t  who-EVER came up with such a ludicrous statement

I've been saying for 2 1/2 years Buxton is NOT Trout nor Harper not close.

 

2.) The Twins flat out rushed him at nearly every level.  Which i've also been saying for 2+ years.

 

3.) Buxton gets hurt a lot in the Minors.

  WHICH is OBVIOUSLY MORE REASON to SLOW THINGS f'ing DOWN with him NOT Speed them up as the Twins chose to do.

Which makes no F'ing sense what so ever.

 

4. )  I was dead on right with Aaron Hicks and his Question of MLB readiness 2 and 3 years ago.  NOT NICK NELSON who declared him all but our next torii hunter!

 

5.) The Twins will regret rushing all of :  Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and possibly Brian Dozier and Max Kepler   .....  Dozier is feeling the affects ( BA ave down)

 

You would of thought they would of learned their lesson With Aaron Hicks 

 

Lighten up Francis. 

[dxpavelka]

 

I think you and I have had this discussion before. Being league average in BABIP is actually a negative indicator if your overall production is poor.  It means you are getting "normal" results on-contact -- you just aren't making much contact, which for MLB hitters is generally a harder problem to reverse than making outs in the field.

 

And again, BABIP is not really a metric or anything to be "hyped" it is just a shortcut for gauging the relationship between batting average and strikeouts, something that looking at average or strikeouts alone won't necessarily tell you.

And yet when Danny Santana's was well above the league average in 2014 it was heralded as a bad thing.

Bottom line is it's way to early  to sell Buxton short.

[Otto von Ballpark]

And yet when Danny Santana's was well above the league average in 2014 it was heralded as a bad thing.

.

This isn't that difficult. Danny Santana's good batting line was due in large part to great luck (as evidenced in part by an extremely high BABIP). Byron Buxton's poor line has little to do with bad luck (he has a normal BABIP, bad luck would generally be considered a low BABIP). Sorry if that doesn't fit your "water good, fire bad" view of statistics.

 

Both could still be good MLB hitters, but it will take some work to cut their K rates to get there. Neither can count much on better luck on balls in play to make up that ground.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

This isn't that difficult. Danny Santana's good batting line was due in large part to great luck (as evidenced in part by an extremely high BABIP). Byron Buxton's poor line has little to do with bad luck (he has a normal BABIP, bad luck would generally be considered a low BABIP). Sorry if that doesn't fit your "water gooBd, fire bad" view of statistics.

Both could still be good MLB hitters, but it will take some work to cut their K rates to get there. Neither can count much on better luck on balls in play to make up that ground.

Yes, the Santana was mostly luck was shouted out by many in here during that season and after...and we were right. Then, this past year many of shouted the same thing about Rosario, and many homers got mad at that...but again, we were right. You can't succeed by swinging at everything! The only guys that can have much value doing that have to have 65-80 grade power, which Santana, Rosario, nor Buxton have. You need to be able to make contact and take some walks. All 3 of Buxton, Rosario, and Santana are guys that CAN have stretches of awesome results through bad process, but overtime...bad process is going to lead to bad results more often than not. 

 

Santana getting hot, but not taking any walks will ultimately lead to the lucky landings stop and back to low avg/obp, just like before and Rosario now. I am very disappointed in the Twins overall ability to develop better plate discipline with their prospects. I get that some guys are just going to be free swingers no matter what, but some guys with discipline are also doing that all on their own and without being coached it as well. Seems like almost ALL of our "TOOLSY" prospects have terrible plate discipline, as if they are simply allowing them to succeed off of their athleticism in the minors, but that doesn't work in the MLB and then its too engrained in them. I have actually heard that said about the Twins and Buxton last year at either Baseball Prospectus or Fangraphs and it echoed my opinion.

[stringer bell]

Buck had another good game yesterday (2-5, walk, leadoff homer and no Ks). I think he leads Rochester in BA and OPS, although he only has about 50 PAs. A month at AAA would be good for him. Buxton's development is crucial to the Twins in so many ways. If staying in AAA is the way for him to be as good as almost everyone has predicted, so be it.

[dxpavelka]

 

Both could still be good MLB hitters,

Is pretty much the only part that matters.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

I'd hate to see him turn into another Carlos Gomez or David Ortiz, a player that the Twins gave up on for nothing before becoming a star.

 

No offense, but I kinda hate that you put "Carlos Gomez" and David ortiz" in the same sentence.

[USAFChief]

Start with Mike Schmidt.

Schmidt had an OPS+ of 76 his first year (SSS) and 92 his second.

 

Buxton 56 and 38.

 

Start somewhere else.

[Ncgo4]

The biggest mistake is going to prove to be their handling of Miguel Sano.  He had 20 games of good production last year and a 5 game good streak this year.  Other than that he has absolutely stunk as a hitter.  He strikes out and he does not hit with runners in scoring position.  Then they compounded the screw up by putting him in a position he cannot play.  A position no-one his size has ever played in the majors.  When he gets hurt, and it could happen, what will Ryan and Molly say then?  He should be in AAA with Buxton, Rosario and Kepler and each brought up when they have proven success at AAA.