Article: What's Next For Byron Buxton?

[Mr. Brooks]

The biggest mistake is going to prove to be their handling of Miguel Sano. He had 20 games of good production last year and a 5 game good streak this year. Other than that he has absolutely stunk as a hitter. He strikes out and he does not hit with runners in scoring position. Then they compounded the screw up by putting him in a position he cannot play. A position no-one his size has ever played in the majors. When he gets hurt, and it could happen, what will Ryan and Molly say then? He should be in AAA with Buxton, Rosario and Kepler and each brought up when they have proven success at AAA.

Sano has an OPS of 1.021 in his career with RISP.

On what planet is that not good???

 

He has a career OPS+ of 137.

 

He started the season slow, sure, but he's been fine since, and is one of the best young hitters in all of baseball.

 

Sano more than belongs in mlb, not AAA.

[Jerr]

I'm soooo old school, these kids now get the money BEFORE they do or learn anything...throw Sano in with Buxton and I do get tired of they are still young.  Keep them down there until ready...

[dxpavelka]

 

Schmidt had an OPS+ of 76 his first year (SSS) and 92 his second.

Buxton 56 and 38.

Start somewhere else.

And if Schmidt had stayed at those levels, he'd have been pumping gas in Altoona by his 4th year.  Again, 187 PA for Buxton MAY be a bit early to be drawing firm conclusions.

[Otto von Ballpark]

And if Schmidt had stayed at those levels, he'd have been pumping gas in Altoona by his 4th year. Again, 187 PA for Buxton MAY be a bit early to be drawing firm conclusions.

Schmidt was almost a league average hitter his rookie season, and an above league average defender at 3B. No, ballplayers with that level of performance don't get cut to pump gas.

 

And if you are reading "firm conclusions" into what Chief or I have posted, you might be misreading us. The only "conclusion" I've drawn is that the start of Buxton's MLB career has been worse than any elite hitter's. Which probably lowers the odds of Buxton becoming an elite hitter.

 

If Buxton does become an elite hitter, I guarantee it will referenced as one of the great early career turnarounds of all time, and that his special talent and pedigree helped him overcome a disastrous start. Which sort of proves my point about the challenges he is facing.

Edited May 9, 2016 by spycake

[alarp33]

 

And if you are reading "firm conclusions" into what Chief or I have posted, you might be misreading us. The only "conclusion" I've drawn is that the start of Buxton's MLB career has been worse than any elite hitter's. Which probably lowers the odds of Buxton becoming an elite hitter.
 

 

It's a neat conclusion you have drawn, but fairly meaningless.  How many "elite hitters" have even had ML at bats at 21, let alone productive ones?  

 

Recent history; Trout, Machado, Harper... and...?  Buxton might not have the offensive upside of these once in a generation talents... oh well.  

 

Looking at some of last years Batting Leaders

 

Donaldson? 26 his rookie year

Goldschmidt? 23

Nelson Cruz? 25

AJ Pollock? 25

McCutcheon? 22

Kris Bryant? 23

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sure, age is a factor, but if Buxton's rough start is nothing to be concerned about at all in terms of his odds of becoming an elite MLB hitter, certainly there must be another elite hitter who debuted at 21-22 at a similarly poor level? Buxton debuted young but not exactly unusually young. Trout, Machado, Harper, Correa, Lindor, etc., going back through history. Did none of those guys have as rough a start as Buxton?

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'll reiterate: if Buxton winds up becoming one of the best hitters in MLB over a 5 to 10 year stretch or whatever, a level some here are still not worried about him achieving, will his first 187 PA in MLB go down as the worst first 187 PA among players in that group?

 

That doesn't mean it is impossible, of course, but doesn't it suggest that maybe his odds aren't as good as they were, say, 187 PA ago?

[alarp33]

 

Sure, age is a factor, but if Buxton's rough start is nothing to be concerned about at all in terms of his odds of becoming an elite MLB hitter, certainly there must be another elite hitter who debuted at 21-22 at a similarly poor level? Buxton debuted young but not exactly unusually young. Trout, Machado, Harper, Correa, Lindor, etc., going back through history. Did none of those guys have as rough a start as Buxton?

 

You're listing 5 guys... a few of which are under 25 and practically locks for the Hall of Fame already.  No, he did not start as well as them... throw in Ken Griffey Jr and A-Rod as well.  

 

That's as meaningful of sample size as posting his OPS+ (which someone else did above) in 50 plate appearances this year.  

 

The sample size of players making the Major leagues at ages 23 or 24 and becoming super stars is pretty damn big.  He's been terrible in his ~180 major league plate appearances which have been spread out over 2 seasons (most at 21 yo), with a DL stint mixed in there as well.

 

Josh Donaldson just won the American League MVP and was just getting his feet wet in low-A ball at 21.  

 

R-E-L-A-X

 

 

[alarp33]

 

I'll reiterate: if Buxton winds up becoming one of the best hitters in MLB over a 5 to 10 year stretch or whatever, a level some here are still not worried about him achieving, will his first 187 PA in MLB go down as the worst first 187 PA among players in that group?

That doesn't mean it is impossible, of course, but doesn't it suggest that maybe his odds aren't as good as they were, say, 187 PA ago?

 

I'll reiterate - if he becomes one of the 5-10 best hitters in MLB will anyone care what his 1st 187 at bats looked like? He wasn't ready at 21 off an injury plagued, throw away season, oh well. 

 

To the 2nd question. No... again, many of the best hitters in MLB aren't even sniffing the majors at 21.  

[jokin]

 

I'll reiterate - if he becomes one of the 5-10 best hitters in MLB will anyone care what his 1st 187 at bats looked like? He wasn't ready at 21 off an injury plagued, throw away season, oh well. 

 

To the 2nd question. No... again, many of the best hitters in MLB aren't even sniffing the majors at 21.  

 

Well stated. This existential concern for Buxton's career being on the brink- just a bit overblown- methinks.

[alarp33]

 

Well stated. This existential concern for Buxton's career being on the brink- just a bit overblown- methinks.

 

Kris Bryant was swinging a metal bat at 21 and Byron Buxton's career was already over at that age, pretty sad!

[Otto von Ballpark]

It wasn't meant to be a definite sample, as evidenced by the "etc going back through history" part. I feel like my simple point is getting deliberately twisted here.

 

The point is, some folks here are not worried about Buxton becoming an elite MLB hitter, presumably over a meaningful 5 to 10 year stretch.

 

To my knowledge, no hitter has ever achieved that level of sustained success with as poor of a start as Buxton's over a comparable sample (187 PA).

 

I think it's fair to worry a little bit over that fact. Again, it is not impossible for him to achieve that level, and the worry probably doesn't rise to any actionable level, other than noting it on an internet forum, and maybe not as readily plugging him into projected lineups as an offensive savior.

 

But it seems odd to me to deny it completely. Baseball is a game of adjustments, true, but we have a long 100+ year history of no one making an adjustment of this particular degree.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'll reiterate - if he becomes one of the 5-10 best hitters in MLB will anyone care what his 1st 187 at bats looked like? He wasn't ready at 21 off an injury plagued, throw away season, oh well.

Internet baseball commenters.

 

Seriously, though -- you don't think Buxton's epic K rate over 187 PA wouldn't get trotted out every time an elite hitting prospect scuffles out of the gate? Look at how often Trout's 2011 season gets bandied about, and that wasn't even a bad performance. Or even Mike Schmidt's poor BA and K rate, some 40 years after the fact.

 

End of season stats are perceived differently, though, so if Buxton can come back in 2016 and make a meaningful reversal of his stat line, that would make a difference in this perception. His 2015 wasn't good but it wasn't all that terrible.

[alarp33]

 

It wasn't meant to be a definite sample, as evidenced by the "etc going back through history" part. I feel like my simple point is getting deliberately twisted here.

The point is, some folks here are not worried about Buxton becoming an elite MLB hitter, presumably over a meaningful 5 to 10 year stretch.

To my knowledge, no hitter has ever achieved that level of sustained success with as poor of a start as Buxton's over a comparable sample (187 PA).

I think it's fair to worry a little bit over that fact. Again, it is not impossible for him to achieve that level, and the worry probably doesn't rise to any actionable level, other than noting it on an internet forum, and maybe not as readily plugging him into projected lineups as an offensive savior.

But it seems odd to me to deny it completely. Baseball is a game of adjustments, true, but we have a long 100+ year history of no one making an adjustment of this particular degree.

 

Would it make you feel better if say, the DBacks had immediately sent Paul Goldschmidt at 21 after signing him out of College to the Majors, and he struck out a bunch, instead of sending him to Rookie ball which they did? 

 

I think its safe to say at this point Buxton was rushed... Just a guess, but if he spent all of last season, and half of this season in the minors his "1st 180 plate appearances" might look a little different, as a 22 year old (still younger than many "elite hitters") debuting in the Majors.  

 

I'm not really seeing in anyway how giving a baseline 1st 180 Major league PA test to players is in anyway meaningful. 

 

Kris Bryant, Paul Goldschmidt, and many others were in college at 21... Byron Buxton came from rural GA where he faced poor competition, spent most of his Age 20 season not playing, had ~250 PA's above A ball, and struck out a bunch in the Majors

[Otto von Ballpark]

Well stated. This existential concern for Buxton's career being on the brink- just a bit overblown- methinks.

Seriously, do you people even read my posts? Find anything I have said that remotely resembles a statement that Buxton's career is on the brink. I am actually on the record as saying a reasonably attainable upside is Carlos Gomez's career path.

[alarp33]

 

Internet baseball commenters.

Seriously, though -- you don't think Buxton's epic K rate over 187 PA wouldn't get trotted out every time an elite hitting prospect scuffles out of the gate? Look at how often Trout's 2011 season gets bandied about, and that wasn't even a bad performance. Or even Mike Schmidt's poor BA and K rate, some 40 years after the fact.
 

 

Sure, they might point back to that... but I think the only meaningful thing people will talk about in 5-10 years is how it was pretty clear Buxton wasn't ready in 2015.  

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Would it make you feel better if say, the DBacks had immediately sent Paul Goldschmidt at 21 after signing him out of College to the Majors, and he struck out a bunch, instead of sending him to Rookie ball which they did?

 

I think its safe to say at this point Buxton was rushed... Just a guess, but if he spent all of last season, and half of this season in the minors his "1st 180 plate appearances" might look a little different, as a 22 year old (still younger than many "elite hitters") debuting in the Majors.

 

I'm not really seeing in anyway how giving a baseline 1st 180 Major league PA test to players is in anyway meaningful.

 

Kris Bryant, Paul Goldschmidt, and many others were in college at 21... Byron Buxton came from rural GA where he faced poor competition, spent most of his Age 20 season not playing, had ~250 PA's above A ball, and struck out a bunch in the Majors

Buxton is still young, true, but it's not like his promotion schedule is on the extremes, like Goldschmidt going straight to MLB would have been. Buxton had 1200 PA in the minors, and got called up after a half season of AA ball to debut at age 21. Rushed a bit, sure, but not enough to invite counterfactuals like this.

 

Before I go any further in this, please state for me what you think MY position is. I think you are primarily arguing with a strawman and not with me.

[alarp33]

 

Before I go any further in this, please state for me what you think MY position is. I think you are primarily arguing with a strawman and not with me.

 

I know you're point, and I strongly disagree. You think it is reasonable to lower expectations for Buxton because of his ML at bats thus far. 

 

We don't really need to go any further, I'm not going to change my mind that 180 PA at age 21/22 are fairly meaningless in the scheme of things.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I know you're point, and I strongly disagree. You think it is reasonable to lower expectations for Buxton because of his ML at bats thus far.

 

We don't really need to go any further, I'm not going to change my mind that 180 PA at age 21/22 are fairly meaningless in the scheme of things.

That's fair, and we can agree to disagree there, but next time please leave the comments like "Byron Buxton's career was already over at that age, pretty sad!" at home, okay? That's just flat out rude to knowingly mischaracterize someone's statements like that.

 

I'm done with this.

[jimmer]

 

Sure, they might point back to that... but I think the only meaningful thing people will talk about in 5-10 years is how it was pretty clear Buxton wasn't ready in 2015.  

or 2016...and very likely 2017.

[jimmer]

 

Would it make you feel better if say, the DBacks had immediately sent Paul Goldschmidt at 21 after signing him out of College to the Majors, and he struck out a bunch, instead of sending him to Rookie ball which they did? 

 

I think its safe to say at this point Buxton was rushed... Just a guess, but if he spent all of last season, and half of this season in the minors his "1st 180 plate appearances" might look a little different, as a 22 year old (still younger than many "elite hitters") debuting in the Majors.  

 

I'm not really seeing in anyway how giving a baseline 1st 180 Major league PA test to players is in anyway meaningful. 

 

Kris Bryant, Paul Goldschmidt, and many others were in college at 21... Byron Buxton came from rural GA where he faced poor competition, spent most of his Age 20 season not playing, had ~250 PA's above A ball, and struck out a bunch in the Majors

I know a lot of Twins fans who had serious concerning about drafting him for this exact reason.

 

In any event, seems some aren't concerned at all about his time in the majors so far.  I am, and I never had the really high expectations a lot of people had.  I figured an at best ceiling of Eric Davis, but have my doubts he'll come close to that. Might end up like a Peter Bourjos type.

Edited May 9, 2016 by jimmer

[USAFChief]

You think it is reasonable to lower expectations for Buxton because of his ML at bats thus far.

 

I think maybe it's reasonable to lower expectations some because they were too high for someone:

 

- with an .870 career MiLB OPS,

- who reached that level of production only in AAA (his rookie, A and AA OPS's range between .790-.830

- who hasn't displayed a lot of power, and doesn't look like he will develop it any time soon

 

AND

 

- who struggled mightily in his first small taste(s) of the big leagues, including an alarming inability to make contact, or punish pitches that he did make contact with

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Here is a list of people saying his career is over

[alarp33]

You think it is reasonable to lower expectations for Buxton because of his ML at bats thus far.

 

I think maybe it's reasonable to lower expectations some because they were too high for someone:

 

- with an .870 career MiLB OPS,

- who reached that level of production only in AAA (his rookie, A and AA OPS's range between .790-.830

- who hasn't displayed a lot of power, and doesn't look like he will develop it any time soon

 

AND

 

- who struggled mightily in his first small taste(s) of the big leagues, including an alarming inability to make contact, or punish pitches that he did make contact with

I guess it depends what your expectations are. If his MLB ops is .870 he's a superstar. I think the best case scenario is a McCutcheon with better defense and slightly less power. McCutcheon had a minor league OPS almost .100 points less than Buxton fwiw. Also, McCutcheon hadn't even reached the majors by the age Buxton is today.

 

FYI, his ops in low A was .990 so your numbers are a little off.

[alarp33]

or 2016...and very likely 2017.

Ok. That's an odd assumption to make, but sure

[jimmer]

 

Ok. That's an odd assumption to make, but sure

well, he's certainly not ready for 2016, since it's 2016 now.  Offensively, he's not even close, which puts into question 2017 as well.  So not sure what makes it odd.

[alarp33]

well, he's certainly not ready for 2016, since it's 2016 now.  Offensively, he's not even close, which puts into question 2017 as well.  So not sure what makes it odd.

Well it's May 9th and he's had all of 49 at bats in 2016, but yeah it's probably a good idea to let him tear up AAA for 2 full seasons because of those 49 at bats

[jimmer]

 

Well it's May 9th and he's had all of 49 at bats in 2016, but yeah it's probably a good idea to let him tear up AAA for 2 full seasons because of those 49 at bats

well, your sarcasm aside, it's not just the results of his PAs that are the problem, it's how he looked during them, which would be totally lost.  I'm going to stop now since it's apparent by your tone with me and others you can't have a conversation about this topic without putting snark into your comments.

Edited May 10, 2016 by jimmer

[alarp33]

well, your sarcasm aside, it's not just the results of his PAs that are the problem, it's how he looked during them, which would be totally lost.  I'm going to stop now since it's apparent by your tone with me and others you can't have a conversation about this topic without putting snark into your comments.

That wasn't intended to be sarcastic or snarky, it's May 9 2016, you don't think it's a tad preposterous to say someone considered by most to be a high end prospect who has something like an .875 ops in AAA right now won't be ready to hit Major league pitching this year OR next year?

[alarp33]

That's fair, and we can agree to disagree there, but next time please leave the comments like "Byron Buxton's career was already over at that age, pretty sad!" at home, okay? That's just flat out rude to knowingly mischaracterize someone's statements like that.

I'm done with this.

I should have said "chance at stardom is over", that is what I meant