Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Mike Sixel]

 

Side note: When did it become the "insider" thing to describe a fastball "high spin fastball" or "low spin fastball?" 

 

In the last year, as data has become more available and sample sizes increased....

[Lonestar]

Most sites have Alvarez as their top SP prospect.....so, their 2nd and 3rd SP prospects?

What are the other sites?

[Mike Sixel]

 

What are the other sites?

 

I think I was wrong, and most sites have De Leon as their top prospect.....

[drjim]

I think other prospect lists weigh close to the majors a little more than Fangraphs. (Or more accurately discount prospects more that are further away).

 

Could be the reason for the difference.

[nicksaviking]

 

Side note: When did it become the "insider" thing to describe a fastball "high spin fastball" or "low spin fastball?" 

 

I think about the time the Astros snagged Collin McHugh off waivers from the Rockies. Someone from the Astros must have let it be known that they thought he could be good because of his spin rate. I don't remember people talking about it really before then but it seemed after EVERYBODY wanted to know about spin rates.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now:

 

Bill
9:39 What prospects do you think the Dodgers should realistically offer for Dozier? And should that be good enough for the Twins to pull the trigger now, or should they wait and test Dozier’s market at the trade deadline?

 

Jeff Sullivan
9:39 Something built around De Leon should work, as should something built around Verdugo and change. I don't think Dozier's value is likely to increase at the deadline. The premiums mostly go to ace starters and high-leverage relievers

 

Tommy Lasordid
9:42 Does DeLeon, Calhoun and Stewart get the Dodgers Dozier, Kinsler, neither or either?

Jeff Sullivan
9:43 I think that package gets you either, but I also would see it as an overpay, because I am quite fond of Brock Stewart

 

D
9:55 How precisely do the dodgers fix their 2nd base situation? And what's the max package you would part with for said 2nd baseman?

 

Jeff Sullivan
9:55 Dozier is beginning to feel somewhat inevitable

The needs there are aligned and the Dodgers have so many young players they could afford to give up
Plus, Dozier could probably push the Dodgers a little in front of the Cubs, probability-wise

[jimmer]

Just now:

 

Bill

9:39 What prospects do you think the Dodgers should realistically offer for Dozier? And should that be good enough for the Twins to pull the trigger now, or should they wait and test Dozier’s market at the trade deadline?

 

Jeff Sullivan

9:39 Something built around De Leon should work, as should something built around Verdugo and change. I don't think Dozier's value is likely to increase at the deadline. The premiums mostly go to ace starters and high-leverage relievers

Yup, exactly.

[Vanimal46]

Concur. If we all got down from our high horses thinking the Twins hold the power in these negotiations, a trade could probably get done. 

[nicksaviking]

 

Just now:

 

 

 

Jeff Sullivan
9:39 Something built around De Leon should work, as should something built around Verdugo and change. I don't think Dozier's value is likely to increase at the deadline. The premiums mostly go to ace starters and high-leverage relievers

 

 

 

A package built around Verdugo? I'm not sure about that one.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Note, he's taken more Dozier questions than anything else....and I've updated the post.

[jimmer]

Note, he's taken more Dozier questions than anything else....and I've updated the post.

thanks for the update and all of that makes sense.

[Oxtung]

Just now:

 

Bill

9:39 What prospects do you think the Dodgers should realistically offer for Dozier? And should that be good enough for the Twins to pull the trigger now, or should they wait and test Dozier’s market at the trade deadline?

 

Jeff Sullivan

9:39 Something built around De Leon should work, as should something built around Verdugo and change. I don't think Dozier's value is likely to increase at the deadline. The premiums mostly go to ace starters and high-leverage relievers

 

Tommy Lasordid

9:42 Does DeLeon, Calhoun and Stewart get the Dodgers Dozier, Kinsler, neither or either?

Jeff Sullivan

9:43 I think that package gets you either, but I also would see it as an overpay, because I am quite fond of Brock Stewart

 

D

9:55 How precisely do the dodgers fix their 2nd base situation? And what's the max package you would part with for said 2nd baseman?

 

Jeff Sullivan

9:55 Dozier is beginning to feel somewhat inevitable

The needs there are aligned and the Dodgers have so many young players they could afford to give up

Plus, Dozier could probably push the Dodgers a little in front of the Cubs, probability-wise

I have no interest in a package of DeLeon Stewart and Calhoun. A back of the rotation pitcher and a fielder that has questions about sticking in a corner OF spot don't move the needle regardless of how close to the majors they are. If that is the best offer the Twins will get, keep Dozier. There will be 3 more opportunities to trade him and he still has value to the Twins.

 

I have no thoughts on Verdugo but we will probably have a hole in th OF next year because chances are one of Rosario, buxton, Kepler aren't going to progress enough to hold down a starters job.

[crapforks]

 

Concur. If we all got down from our high horses thinking the Twins hold the power in these negotiations, a trade could probably get done. 

Aw, dang it! It's our fault.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Just now:

 

Jeff Sullivan
9:55 Dozier is beginning to feel somewhat inevitable

The needs there are aligned and the Dodgers have so many young players they could afford to give up
Plus, Dozier could probably push the Dodgers a little in front of the Cubs, probability-wise

The Cubs comment really surprised me. I don't see Dozier all of sudden making the Dodgers better than the Cubs. I also think the Cubs have pieces they can use to improver their team at the deadline.

[Linus]

The Cubs comment really surprised me. I don't see Dozier all of sudden making the Dodgers better than the Cubs. I also think the Cubs have pieces they can use to improver their team at the deadline.

I think that depends on whether you believe Dozier has another couple monster years in him. Dozier on a good team last year would have driven in 125. I personally don't but you could easily argue otherwise.

[nicksaviking]

So would Dozier be leading off of the Dodgers also? Utley did most of their leading off last year and they don't have a prototypical leadoff guy.

 

We gave Molitor a hard time about using Dozier in that positoin, but if that's what the Dodgers want him for it could be more leverage for the Twins. The Dodgers need a 2B, right-handed power AND a leadoff guy with lushes hair? The Twins can fill all of those holes for you with just one player.

[diehardtwinsfan]

9:42 Does DeLeon, Calhoun and Stewart get the Dodgers Dozier, Kinsler, neither or either?

Jeff Sullivan

9:43 I think that package gets you either, but I also would see it as an overpay, because I am quite fond of Brock Stewart

If I could get one of those guys for Kintzler, he'd be gone.  I cannot imagine he has anything close to value with Dozier.... Maybe I'm wrong, but I'd have no problems adding Kintzler in as a toss in if that meant upgrading that 3rd piece to a legit prospect. 

[drjim]

 

If I could get one of those guys for Kintzler, he'd be gone.  I cannot imagine he has anything close to value with Dozier.... Maybe I'm wrong, but I'd have no problems adding Kintzler in as a toss in if that meant upgrading that 3rd piece to a legit prospect. 

 

You're mixing up Ian Kinsler and Brandon Kintzler.

[Mr. Brooks]

I have no interest in a package of DeLeon Stewart and Calhoun. A back of the rotation pitcher and a fielder that has questions about sticking in a corner OF spot don't move the needle regardless of how close to the majors they are. If that is the best offer the Twins will get, keep Dozier. There will be 3 more opportunities to trade him and he still has value to the Twins.

 

I have no thoughts on Verdugo but we will probably have a hole in th OF next year because chances are one of Rosario, buxton, Kepler aren't going to progress enough to hold down a starters job.

DeLeon has far better upside than a back of the rotation starter.

[Willihammer]

 

If I could get one of those guys for Kintzler, he'd be gone.  I cannot imagine he has anything close to value with Dozier.... Maybe I'm wrong, but I'd have no problems adding Kintzler in as a toss in if that meant upgrading that 3rd piece to a legit prospect. 

Agree. I'd also make Johan Santana available, but ask for more prospect wise obviously.

[Oxtung]

DeLeon has far better upside than a back of the rotation starter.

Im saying the Twins need more back with De Leon than Stewart, a back of the rotation option, and Calhoun who has serious position questions. Why do you think the Dodger reporters/fans keep trying to add in those particular names (along with Trayce Thompson)? IMO the same reason the Twins fans continuously tried to attach Duensing to "sweeten" the pot.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Im saying the Twins need more back with De Leon than Stewart, a back of the rotation option, and Calhoun who has serious position questions. Why do you think the Dodger reporters/fans keep trying to add in those particular names (along with Trayce Thompson)? IMO the same reason the Twins fans continuously tried to attach Duensing to "sweeten" the pot.

Exactly.

[markos]

 

Im saying the Twins need more back with De Leon than Stewart, a back of the rotation option, and Calhoun who has serious position questions. Why do you think the Dodger reporters/fans keep trying to add in those particular names (along with Trayce Thompson)? IMO the same reason the Twins fans continuously tried to attach Duensing to "sweeten" the pot.

I understand and share the concern about Calhoun, but I like Stewart a lot. He is way, way, way better than Duensing ever was. He averaged 9+ K/9 and 2 BB/9 in the minors, averages 93+ on his fastball. Right now, he has way more in common with Scott Baker than he does with Duensing, Swarzak or similar ilk.

[Oxtung]

I understand and share the concern about Calhoun, but I like Stewart a lot. He is way, way, way better than Duensing ever was. He averaged 9+ K/9 and 2 BB/9 in the minors, averages 93+ on his fastball. Right now, he has way more in common with Scott Baker than he does with Duensing, Swarzak or similar ilk.

My point wasn't that Duensing and Stewart are the same pitcher-profile but rather they are a limited upside player that the home team tries to throw into a trade because they have already learned the players limitations and want to recoup as much value as possible before the rest of the league "finds out".

 

No fan base, and that includes writers, wants to toss in potentially impact players so they toss in middle of the road upside players hoping the opposing team won't notice. This is just as true for Twins fans.

 

My point is that isn't enough, IMO. I'd rather the Twins keep Dozier unless there are multiple high upside players coming back.

[Mike Sixel]

Big Z
10:49 Better career hitter in the end: Schwarber or Sano?

 

Jeff Sullivan
10:49 I'll go with Sano

[bluechipper]

 

My point wasn't that Duensing and Stewart are the same pitcher-profile but rather they are a limited upside player that the home team tries to throw into a trade because they have already learned the players limitations and want to recoup as much value as possible before the rest of the league "finds out".

No fan base, and that includes writers, wants to toss in potentially impact players so they toss in middle of the road upside players hoping the opposing team won't notice. This is just as true for Twins fans.

My point is that isn't enough, IMO. I'd rather the Twins keep Dozier unless there are multiple high upside players coming back.

I don't get the limited upside thing with Brock Stewart. I don't know a whole lot about him, but in 2016, he had a 1.79 ERA with 9.6 K/9 and just 1.4 BB/9 and only 6.5 H/9. He did that while playing in some pretty good hitters leagues.

[Oxtung]

I don't get the limited upside thing with Brock Stewart. I don't know a whole lot about him, but in 2016, he had a 1.79 ERA with 9.6 K/9 and just 1.4 BB/9 and only 6.5 H/9. He did that while playing in some pretty good hitters leagues.

What do you think his likely ceiling is?

[Willihammer]

When the Min-LAD thread started I used my mlb.tv subscription to checkout a couple of De Leon and Stewart's starts, and IMO as a not-scout, I wouldn't be surprised if Stewart has the better career. In fact, I'd bet on it.

[King]

 

What do you think his likely ceiling is?

Looks like an MLB ready middle of the rotation starter with the upside for better. That's pretty good, with 6 years of control left.

[Oxtung]

Looks like an MLB ready middle of the rotation starter with the upside for better. That's pretty good, with 6 years of control left.

So you view him as equivalent to De Leon?