Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

I have shared a few other Cleveland related pitching philosophy and routine articles I have found. This one on Kluber (and Prices') warmups is interesting too, as it likely shows what types of things might be recommended of the pitching staff (especially younger guys and minor leaguers.)

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/corey-kluber-and-david-price-the-warmup-routines/

[Mike Sixel]

today:

 

RABBINICAL COLLEGE GUY: Will the Twinkies win more games next year? Why or why not???

 

12:40
Dan Szymborski: Yeah. Better roster almost by definition and the plexiglass principle. Probably was a 70-win talent team or so that underperformed.

[markos]

 

today:

 

RABBINICAL COLLEGE GUY: Will the Twinkies win more games next year? Why or why not???

 

12:40
Dan Szymborski: Yeah. Better roster almost by definition and the plexiglass principle. Probably was a 70-win talent team or so that underperformed.

FWIW, they had a 71-91 baseruns record this year.

[Mike Sixel]

here you go:

 

mike sixel
10:15 My daily attempt....what would Dozier return in trade, do you think? Clearly the Twins need pitching...

 

Jeff Sullivan
10:16 The big issue would be getting other teams to believe in the magnitude of the power spike. I don't think front offices know yet what to make of all the 2016 home runs, and Dozier was the sort of guy who could benefit from a different ball more than most
10:17 I think you'd probably be looking at two prospects somewhere in the 40 - 80 range

[nicksaviking]

 

here you go:

 

mike sixel
10:15 My daily attempt....what would Dozier return in trade, do you think? Clearly the Twins need pitching...

 

Jeff Sullivan
10:16 The big issue would be getting other teams to believe in the magnitude of the power spike. I don't think front offices know yet what to make of all the 2016 home runs, and Dozier was the sort of guy who could benefit from a different ball more than most
10:17 I think you'd probably be looking at two prospects somewhere in the 40 - 80 range

 

That seems light to me. Not inaccurate, just disappointing.

 

The problem is, Dozier has been such a streaky hitter through his career that hanging on to him and letting him try to prove his worth again in 2017 then trying to trade him mid-season allows for a gigantic chance that he losses value.

[Thrylos]

 

That seems light to me. Not inaccurate, just disappointing.

 

 

I think that it is too heavy to tell you the truth, if anything.  2 prospects in the top 40-80 will give the Twins 2 arms like Jay (ranked 35th) and Gonsalves (ranked 85th). 

 

I'd take that for Dozier in a heartbeat.

[ashbury]

The problem is, Dozier has been such a streaky hitter through his career

That's certainly the common perception about him.

 

I wonder, though, if anyone has come up with a way to quantify streakiness.

 

Because, over the somewhat arbitrary start/end points of a full season, Brian Dozier's 2013-15 was practically a model of consistency.

 

      2013 / 2014 / 2015

BA: .244 / .242 / .236

OBP: .312 / .345 / .307

SLG: .414 / .416 / .444

OPS: .726 / .762 / .751

 

A little fluctuation in on-base and slugging, that balanced out somewhat. Then this year, he started out worse than these, got incredibly hot, and finished far better than ever, with an OPS of .886. This makes his inconsistency, if anything, on the high side and a positive thing.

 

Pretty much any good hitter will have months where he hits .200 and other months where he hits .320, with similar fluctuation in walks and power.

 

Even supposing he reverts back to previous levels, is it possible that watching him day after day, we over-estimate the natural fluctuation? I don't know the answer - it's not a rhetorical question.

[Mike Sixel]

On Buxton, from their very good prospects guy:

 

bosoxforlife
3:34 Has Byron Buxton already past the Domonic Brown level when it comes to a bust?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
3:34 No way, I'm still in on Buxton.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That seems light to me. Not inaccurate, just disappointing.

I don't think that's light. My goal was to get one guy in the 20-40 range with add-ons. Two guys in the 40-80 range is a pretty similar value.

 

But two guys in the 40-80 range are also easier to find, as teams with disposable 20-40 prospects are few and far between.

[Mike Sixel]

Not gonna like this one he just answered:

 

Spicy Boy
3:44 What's a reasonable outcome for Stephen Gonsalves? Is his ceiling much higher than that? He seems to have outperformed scouting reports thus far

 

Eric A Longenhagen
3:44 5th starter

[Vanimal46]

That sounds about right for Gonsalves. Peak of #3, most likely #5. I'm in no rush to bring him up to the majors. 

[HitInAPinch]

 

That sounds about right for Gonsalves. Peak of #3, most likely #5. I'm in no rush to bring him up to the majors. 

Still only 22.  Plenty of time to work on those breaking pitches and maybe another tick on the radar gun.

[Platoon]

That seems light to me. Not inaccurate, just disappointing.

 

The problem is, Dozier has been such a streaky hitter through his career that hanging on to him and letting him try to prove his worth again in 2017 then trying to trade him mid-season allows for a gigantic chance that he losses value.

Take the money (trade) and run!

[markos]

 

I don't think that's light. My goal was to get one guy in the 20-40 range with add-ons. Two guys in the 40-80 range is a pretty similar value.

 

But two guys in the 40-80 range are also easier to find, as teams with disposable 20-40 prospects are few and far between.

I think it is a little light, but a lot depends on your projection for Dozier going forward. If you think he continues to be a 5+ WAR player for the next two seasons, it is probably light. 

[Mike Sixel]

KLAW just tweeted that any talk of moving Gordon off SS is "ridiculous".

 

And, on his insider column:

 

"very impressive at the plate and in the field"

[Mike Sixel]

Insider summary on Gonsalves from KLAW:

 

"I think the light fastball is going to present problems for him as the competition improves."

[Thrylos]

 

Not gonna like this one he just answered:

 

Spicy Boy
3:44 What's a reasonable outcome for Stephen Gonsalves? Is his ceiling much higher than that? He seems to have outperformed scouting reports thus far

 

Eric A Longenhagen
3:44 5th starter

 

1

 

over/under the times that Mr Longenhagen has seen Gonsalves pitch in real life

 

[Thrylos]

 

KLAW just tweeted that any talk of moving Gordon off SS is "ridiculous".

 

And, on his insider column:

 

"very impressive at the plate and in the field"

 

Saw that.  Maybe he turned it around, but so far he had pretty much 3 identical average seasons at the plate (bit higher SLG this season because of 3 vs 1 HRS.)   "Very impressive" is like 1.000 OPS (in my book, and he might be getting there in the ALF SSS, but even Garver is more impressiver )  His top OPS was .721. Either Law is easily impressed or something does not add up

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think it is a little light, but a lot depends on your projection for Dozier going forward. If you think he continues to be a 5+ WAR player for the next two seasons, it is probably light. 

Could be, but I see Dozier more as a 4-5 WAR guy over the next two years. And that's toward the upper end of the best case scenario. I think the most likely scenario is probably more in the 4 WAR range. Impressive, but not elite.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

1

 

over/under the times that Mr Longenhagen has seen Gonsalves pitch in real life

Fair, but what is the success rate over/under on the end outcomes of guys with Gonsalves skill set? 

[jimmer]

 

1

 

over/under the times that Mr Longenhagen has seen Gonsalves pitch in real life

Yeah, I'd imagine more than that.  I wonder what would have been said if he had praised Gonsalves. Kiley McDaniel used to get the same treatment here.

[The Wise One]

Fair, but what is the success rate over/under on the end outcomes of guys with Gonsalves skill set?

Barry Zito had some very good years.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Barry Zito had some very good years.

...and others that are the exception and not the rule. I sincerely DO hope that he is more in the 3ish range of starter, but he more likely to NEVER stick as a starter in the MLB, than to be a #3, IMO.

[drivlikejehu]

The Gonsalves thing seems like a straightforward factual question, since pitches get charted throughout the year. What is his actual in-game velocity? If it's really 87-91 at best, then his prospect status is dramatically overstated because only a tiny number of pitchers succeed with that kind of fastball. Seth and others on here have claimed he throws "low 90s" which is an entirely different story . . . lots of successful starters average 91.

[Vanimal46]

KLAW chat today:

Marshall: KLaw I know you are just counting down the minutes to your first Tebow question, but this isn't one. In regard to Gonsalves, do you think that his height presents the opportunity any more projectability in regard to fastball velocity? As a Twins fan I just keep hoping one of our young pitchers ends up becoming a #1 level pitcher, but it sounds like he won't be one.

 

 

KLAW: Height helps but isn't the sole determining factor of project-ability, which is a nebulous, subjective concept anyway. You need the right physical frame too, and he doesn't really have it. He's slender like a Conner Greene, but Greene is already up to 98 and I think he's the same age.

[Vanimal46]

KLaw is certainly consistent on this take:

Chris: Do you think Berrios will ever be a #1 stud? Or just be a middle of the road starter?

 

KLaw: Never thought he'd be an ace. Mid-rotation guy, sure.

[Vanimal46]

Read this gem on Fangraphs' Sunday Notes and it actually blows my mind this wasn't a part of the minor league system...

Following the World Series, Derek Falvey — an assistant GM with the Indians — will join the Minnesota Twins as their Executive VP and Chief Baseball Officer. Falvey will reshape an organization that has been run by Terry Ryan, and more recently, Rob Antony on an interim basis.

 

Talking to Antony late in the season, I learned that the Twins have been without a minor league hitting coordinator, but were intending to hire one. On the pitching development side, Antony told me that he, Ryan, and minor league director Brad Stile would routinely meet to talk about “what we believe in, and what we want to emphasize.” Stile would then meet with Eric Rasmussen, the team’s minor league pitching coordinator. If Rasmussen had suggestions, they would be communicated back to the front office.

 

Will that structure change under Falvey? Stay tuned.

 

http://memecrunch.com/meme/29WS3/ummm-yeah/image.jpg?w=1024&c=1

I'd think that's pretty important to have a minor league hitting coordinator.... 

[Taildragger8791]

 

Read this gem on Fangraphs' Sunday Notes and it actually blows my mind this wasn't a part of the minor league system...

Following the World Series, Derek Falvey — an assistant GM with the Indians — will join the Minnesota Twins as their Executive VP and Chief Baseball Officer. Falvey will reshape an organization that has been run by Terry Ryan, and more recently, Rob Antony on an interim basis.

 

Talking to Antony late in the season, I learned that the Twins have been without a minor league hitting coordinator, but were intending to hire one. On the pitching development side, Antony told me that he, Ryan, and minor league director Brad Stile would routinely meet to talk about “what we believe in, and what we want to emphasize.” Stile would then meet with Eric Rasmussen, the team’s minor league pitching coordinator. If Rasmussen had suggestions, they would be communicated back to the front office.

 

Will that structure change under Falvey? Stay tuned.

 

I'd think that's pretty important to have a minor league hitting coordinator.... 

 

I mean...I want to be surprised but I can't say that I am. I half-expect to hear a few more surprising statements like this come out over the off-season revealing how behind the Twins organization was on various things.

[Mr. Brooks]

I mean...I want to be surprised but I can't say that I am. I half-expect to hear a few more surprising statements like this come out over the off-season revealing how behind the Twins organization was on various things.

I agree the Twins are probably shockingly lagging behind in several of these behind the scenes type areas.

That was what Mackey said his sources were telling him was the reason why some candidates were l weary of the job.

 

My question is how did that happen?

Was that Ryan being old school and thinking all these new positions and departments were unnecessary?

Or was it orders from an ownership that has often been accused of cheapness?

Terry, and then Antony have always maintained that ownership has never said no to money. But on the other hand, I find it hard to believe that the Pohlads were begging Ryan to spend more money and he refused.

So, I always struggle with what that balance was- cheap ownership vs Terry falling on the sword for them.

I hope that it was just Terry falling behind the times, rather than cheap ownership. My concern would be that Falvey is expected to continue to operate on the cheap.

[clutterheart]

 

Following the World Series, Derek Falvey — an assistant GM with the Indians — will join the Minnesota Twins as their Executive VP and Chief Baseball Officer. Falvey will reshape an organization that has been run by Terry Ryan, and more recently, Rob Antony on an interim basis.

 

Talking to Antony late in the season, I learned that the Twins have been without a minor league hitting coordinator, but were intending to hire one. On the pitching development side, Antony told me that he, Ryan, and minor league director Brad Stile would routinely meet to talk about “what we believe in, and what we want to emphasize.” Stile would then meet with Eric Rasmussen, the team’s minor league pitching coordinator. If Rasmussen had suggestions, they would be communicated back to the front office.

 

I am really looking forward to an organization that doesn't have Antony, Steil, (Johnson and Radcliff too)