Expert picks from CBS website

[glunn]

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25533630/mlb-predictions-for-2016-divisions-postseason-world-series-awards

 

This is a link to the predictions of 5 experts.

 

Interesting that 3 of the 5 experts predict that a Twin will win AL rookie of the year; however they each pick a different Twin -- Park, Berrios and Buxton.

 

Also, 2 of the 5 predict Sano to be the home run leader.

 

I will be thrilled if even one of these picks comes close to being true.

 

"Picks come from senior writer Jonah Keri and Eye on Baseball scribes R.J. Anderson, Mike Axisa, Dayn Perry and Matt Snyder."

[goulik]

Well, I hope three of those predictions are correct...

[dgwills]

I notice one guy picked Aaron Hicks as his surprise player for the American League. Two picked Denard Span for the National League.

[USAFChief]

One has the Twins finishing 2nd in the ALC (but not a WC), one 4th, three 5th.

 

I hope they suck at predictions.

[Dantes929]

 

One has the Twins finishing 2nd in the ALC (but not a WC), one 4th, three 5th.

I hope they suck at predictions.

Well last year all 5 had the Twins finishing dead last and only one had the Royals winning the Central.   Apparently before 2011 they were so bad they removed all the pages from the internet.

[DaveW]

 

One has the Twins finishing 2nd in the ALC (but not a WC), one 4th, three 5th.

I hope they suck at predictions.

Couple things:

I like the Twins in the under dog role. I think they have a real good shot at a WC spot, but I can't see how anyone can say they are "ahead" of the Royals at this stage, I mean they made the WS the past two years and won it last year, and really return most of the main core that took them there.

 

I'm surprised that many people are picking the Twins to finish 5th though. The White Sox are an absolute mess all over the place. The Twins look better than them on paper no doubt. Cleveland and Detroit? I can see the argument either way between all three teams with an ever so slight edge to Detroit.

[DiscGolfer]

Ha, Pelfrey picked as a bust candidate.

[Platoon]

Also interesting, no one picked the Twins for a WC slot. All or nothing. Btw, it you are in the AL West, and have an "A" in your emblem, it don't look good! I don't think the Twins will finish last or first. I think they have some emerging talent, but an overall roster that is built on decent, but mediocre players. They have some power, which might be offset by low OBP and very high SO's. No one would rate the overall bullpen, SP, nor defense in the top tier of the league. All ML compatible, but average. The sum of which will be the same!

[Han Joelo]

Last year, I got kind of annoyed when the "experts" were all lumping the Twins into the bottom 4 teams in both leagues.  This year, the consensus seems to be 21st.  This doesn't bother me, for all the reason's Platoon laid out right above.

 

USA Today has a "Crazy Scenario" which has the Royals starting pitching falter, while Sano bashes and Berrios K's the Twins to the championship, or something.

 

Then they list their "Likely" scenario--Twins collection of no. 3 starters doesn't cut it, and they finish last.

 

I do pity Cubs fans.  The experts all agree they will win the WS.

[bluechipper]

I'm a little surprised no one picked Detroit higher than 3rd. If that lineup stays relatively healthy, and the pitching is about average, they will be tough to beat.

[gil4]

 

Ha, Pelfrey picked as a bust candidate.

The only ways I can think of for Pelfrey to be a bust involve long stays in prison.  An ERA over 6 and being released = meeting expectations.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

One has the Twins finishing 2nd in the ALC (but not a WC), one 4th, three 5th.

I hope they suck at predictions.

It really shows how much thought, or lack thereof, goes into these predictions. Here are the three people who picked the Twins to finish last:

 

Keri: Fifth place finish, Park RotY, Sano HR champ

 

Anderson: Fifth place finish, no Twins leaders... Hey, this one is actually consistent

 

Snyder: Fifth place finish, Buxton RotY

 

Is there any reasonable scenario where Park is the RotY, Sano is the HR champ, and the Twins finish last in the division? While slightly less absurd, is there any reasonable scenario where the Twins finish last while Buxton - of all people, maybe the most crucial breakout hope of the team - wins the RotY?

 

It's just soooooo unlikely to happen. A RotY prediction is essentially saying "this player is worth 3-4 wins on his own" or, in the case of Buxton and his defense, probably a 5+ win player. A Sano HR champ prediction is essentially saying "this guy is pretty easily a 4-6 win player". Keri is predicting two breakout players to be worth something approaching ten wins, yet picks the Twins last in the division.

 

Cognitive dissonance, anyone?

 

Yeah, if all the Twins falter, maybe they finish fifth in a close division... But if one of the young players breaks out big, it's highly unlikely the Twins finish last because they have several solid performers up and down the roster and a ton of depth, maybe more depth than any other team in baseball.

 

Yeah, the depth isn't always of the highest quality but it's depth and most of it has quite a bit of potential.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm a little surprised no one picked Detroit higher than 3rd. If that lineup stays relatively healthy, and the pitching is about average, they will be tough to beat.

You just explained why you shouldn't be surprised.

 

Yeah, if everything breaks right with Detroit and they get solid, full seasons out of a half dozen guys well on the wrong side of 30, they might be good.

 

The chances of that happening are pretty slim. It's possible but not likely enough to put them in front of younger teams with more depth.

[jorgenswest]

Why last place?

 

The Royals are coming off a World Series and the starting rotations of the other three teams are superior. In the case of the Indians and White Sox far superior. I would take Sale, Quintana, Rodon, Kluber, Carrasco, Salazar, Verlander, Sanchez and Zimmerman over any of the Twins 5 to start the season.

 

Does the bullpen compare any better?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Is there any reasonable scenario where Park is the RotY, Sano is the HR champ, and the Twins finish last in the division? While slightly less absurd, is there any reasonable scenario where the Twins finish last while Buxton - of all people, maybe the most crucial breakout hope of the team - wins the RotY?

 

It's just soooooo unlikely to happen.

A couple things:

 

1) I don't think it's as unlikely as you claim.  The AL Central is expected to be very even, very competitive.  A "last place" finish there was worth 74 wins last year and could be higher this year -- last place in the competitive east was Boston at 78 wins, who had a competitor for the HR lead (Ortiz) and would have had a RoY contender in Betts if he had fewer at-bats in 2014 (and if Correa and Lindor weren't in the same class).  Further eyeballing 2014, but the White Sox had the RoY (who was near the HR lead too) and a real Cy Young contender and only won 73 games.  The Mets had the RoY and a 30 HR season from Duda and won 79.

 

2) Rookie of the Year "predictions" are especially sketchy because there are usually only a handful of names you can realistically choose from.  Park and Buxton are probably getting "default" nods as the notable names, not necessarily as a prediction of their 2016 performance level.

[alarp33]

 

Why last place?

The Royals are coming off a World Series and the starting rotations of the other three teams are superior. In the case of the Indians and White Sox far superior. I would take Sale, Quintana, Rodon, Kluber, Carrasco, Salazar, Verlander, Sanchez and Zimmerman over any of the Twins 5 to start the season.

Does the bullpen compare any better?

 

I agree with basically all of this, but there's no way I would prefer Anibal Sanchez to Kyle Gibson, or even Erv for that matter

[Craig Arko]

How did the same experts do last season?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

A couple things:

 

1) I don't think it's as unlikely as you claim.  The AL Central is expected to be very even, very competitive.  A "last place" finish there was worth 74 wins last year and could be higher this year -- last place in the competitive east was Boston at 78 wins, who had a competitor for the HR lead (Ortiz) and would have had a RoY contender in Betts if he had fewer at-bats in 2014 (and if Correa and Lindor weren't in the same class).  Further eyeballing 2014, but the White Sox had the RoY (who was near the HR lead too) and a real Cy Young contender and only won 73 games.  The Mets had the RoY and a 30 HR season from Duda and won 79.

 

2) Rookie of the Year "predictions" are especially sketchy because there are usually only a handful of names you can realistically choose from.  Park and Buxton are probably getting "default" nods as the notable names, not necessarily as a prediction of their 2016 performance level.

1) Eh, the White Sox comparison is flawed because the Sox had a few good players, a bunch of bad players, and no depth in the minors. The Twins are stacked with mediocre-to-good depth. That means - barring catastrophic injuries/underperformance from a large segment of the roster - two or three breakout players means they're a good team overall. That was my point.

 

2) I suppose that's fair but predicting a RotY implies a quality performance, which loops me back around to the first point.

 

I simply do not see a reasonable projection where Buxton/Park/Sano thrive and the Twins are a bad team. They have too many pitchers, too many high minors replacements, and too many solid vets for several young players to thrive and the team to finish in last place.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I agree with basically all of this, but there's no way I would prefer Anibal Sanchez to Kyle Gibson, or even Erv for that matter

Depends.  Sanchez certainly has a lower floor, as demonstrated by last season, but he also probably still brings an upside that Santana and Gibson don't right now.  He's not the safest pick, of course, but given that he is "healthy" at the moment and set to start next week, for projecting 2016 performance (the context of this thread), he's probably no worse than even with them.

[alarp33]

 

Depends.  Sanchez certainly has a lower floor, as demonstrated by last season, but he also probably still brings an upside that Santana and Gibson don't right now.  He's not the safest pick, of course, but given that he is "healthy" at the moment and set to start next week, for projecting 2016 performance (the context of this thread), he's probably no worse than even with them.

 

Totally forgot Sanchez was 4th in Cy Young voting a few years ago.  That said, I'll still take Gibson over him if I'm given the choice of either this year.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

1) Eh, the White Sox comparison is flawed because the Sox had a few good players, a bunch of bad players, and no depth in the minors. The Twins are stacked with mediocre-to-good depth. That means that - barring catastrophic injuries/underperformance from a large segment of the roster - two or three breakout players means they're a good team overall. That was my point.

What about the other examples that I provided?  Or even the example of a last place team that won 78 games last year, a fair and popular proposition for this year's central division?  That was *my* point, not that the 2014 White Sox single-handedly refuted your point.  The Twins could get some of that White Sox star power in Sano and a rookie, and best those 2014 Sox by 5-7 wins in depth, and still finish near last in a tough division.

 

2) I suppose that's fair but predicting a RotY implies a quality performance, which loops me back around to the first point.

 

Again, no it doesn't, not really.  In most years, "predicting" RoY is actually more about predicting opportunity first and foremost.  No AL rookies probably project to get more or better chances to perform in 2016 than Park and Buxton.  At season's end, Park or Buxton will probably still be the favorite for the award with rather pedestrian numbers even if someone like Berrios comes up for a couple lights out months later in the year (and even that doesn't seem too likely, most of BA's top "ETA 2016" prospects are in the NL).

 

THAT is why Park and Buxton are popular picks right now for RoY, even among analysts who predict the Twins to finish last.  Not that these predictions are science, but that is certainly a more plausible explanation than accusing all of these analysts of not realizing how individual performances contribute to team performance.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Why last place?

The Royals are coming off a World Series and the starting rotations of the other three teams are superior. In the case of the Indians and White Sox far superior. I would take Sale, Quintana, Rodon, Kluber, Carrasco, Salazar, Verlander, Sanchez and Zimmerman over any of the Twins 5 to start the season.

Good thing they still let baseball players hit.  Clearly, it's the Twins lineup (and perhaps defense) that would have to make up the ground on the front half the other teams' starting pitching.   Even if our rotation is staggeringly average, the Twins will still be competitive. 

[Platoon]

The Twins had some good things happen last year. Their numbers with men on base, and IIRC two outs were very high. The insane May overrode what was a relatively mediocre rest of the year. And they beat Chris Sale like a drum. It was a very good, and fortunate year. I have not suffered as much angst as others over the inaction on the BP side, I think the help is in the minors. (Burdi sets me back a little). But the problem is it's still in the minors. If I wasn't going to acquire FA help, then I would have promoted more from within. I do think Pressley will help considerably though. The SP? Meh! There is really nothing to say, they made their bed, they have to lie in it. Defense? Infield is pretty clean, but isn't going to steal many basehits from anyone. They could have had an elit defensive outfield, but that arguement has been waged somewhere before. Personally with an extreme PTC staff, and with the exception of Berrios more of that in the SP future, I would have made the defensive OF a higher priority. The offense? Could be stunning at times, or not. Nothing comes and goes like offense, and nothing is easier to stop by good pitching in a best of five series.

[markos]

 

What about the other examples that I provided?  Or even the example of a last place team that won 78 games last year, a fair and popular proposition for this year's central division?  That was *my* point, not that the 2014 White Sox single-handedly refuted your point.  The Twins could get some of that White Sox star power in Sano and a rookie, and best those 2014 Sox by 5-7 wins in depth, and still finish near last in a tough division.

BP's Bryan Grosnick noticed a similar issue with BP's own predictions: three ROY candidates but still finishing last. He looked at the historic record of teams with multiple ROY vote-getters. Most of the teams ended up doing pretty well, but there were a few exceptions. The most interesting exception was the 2008 Marlins:

 

 

 

The one team that gets closest is the 2006 Florida Marlins. That team had a Rookie of the Year in Hanley Ramirez, but also the third- and fourth-place finishers in the NL race: Dan Uggla and Josh Johnson. Like the 2016 Twins, this team featured a top up-the-middle prospect overflowing with athleticism, a high-end pitching prospect, and an older guy with some power. Better still, the Marlins had three more players who got Rookie of the Year votes: Scott Olsen, Anibal Sanchez, and Josh Willingham. For a team with Max Kepler in the wings—as well as infielder Jorge Polanco—there’s the possibility that this is a team with even more rookies who could play a part for the 2016 team.

 

Unfortunately, that Marlins team went 78-84, for a .481 winning percentage; their Pythagorean record was .492. That was Joe Girardi’s one full season with the team, they had Miguel Cabrera putting up his second-best season by WARP—he was worth 7.2 wins—and they were still a fourth-place team. Even if the Twins could get an MVP-caliber performance out of someone like Miguel Sano or Brian Dozier and get great rookie seasons from three different players, they could still be in a position where they don’t crack .500.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28840