Terry Ryan- I am not a fan

[dxpavelka]

 

I'm not sure they are going to contend this year, but if they do, i think they are better off with May in the bullpen.  Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Berrios, Milone and Duffey give the Twins a decent rotation.  I don't see that May is a signifigant upgrade to any of them.  He's not going to displace Santana, Hughes or Gibson for sure.  Berrios is going to get his shot as either to start the season or when they first injury happens.

 

That means May is only either going to beat out Milone or Duffey.  Who is he better than?  May has shown flashes of brilliance starting, but is exceptionally inconsistant.  In 2015, Milone was a better starter than May.  He did have a lower strikeout rate, but a better ERA.   Duffey has shown far more than May as a starter.

 

On the other side of it, May has shown he can be a GREAT reliever.  None of those 6 starters I mention seems like they would be a good reliever.

 

Now if you didn't have Santana and Hughes, then yes, I'd put May in the rotation.  However, given the roster as it is, its pretty obvious that May should be in the bullpen.

Baseball has become a power pitching game.  May averaged 8.64 k / 9 innings last year.  The only guy potential starter you've mentioned that even came close to that at the big league level was Duffy.  There is a pretty good chance that for the same reasons none of those other 6 starters would be good relievers, they are also not good starters.  If this team doesn't find some power arms in the rotation it may not matter who is in the pen.  With May not in the rotation your feeling that team may not contend this year only comes closer to fruition.

[USAFChief]

 

Baseball has become a power pitching game.  May averaged 8.64 k / 9 innings last year.  The only guy potential starter you've mentioned that even came close to that at the big league level was Duffy.  There is a pretty good chance that for the same reasons none of those other 6 starters would be good relievers, they are also not good starters.  If this team doesn't find some power arms in the rotation it may not matter who is in the pen.  With May not in the rotation your feeling that team may not contend this year only comes closer to fruition.

Trevor May averaged 7.9 K/9 as a starter last year.  

[dxpavelka]

 

Trevor May averaged 7.9 K/9 as a starter last year.  

You're quibbling over a number that the rest of the starters STILL didn't approach.

[Negativity Police]

 

Oh well, same crap, different year.  Guess that's why I love these guys and will always be a fan, cause the going is never easy for us.  Going to be tuning in having a blast watching them and appropriately feeling like crap halfway through the season when I'm asking myself, "it sure seems like they could have done more in the offseason, what happened?!"

Got my eye on you, Champuckett.

[bird]

 

Source?

 

 

 

Common knowledge. 

[howieramone2]

 

No team in MLB plays a "far easier" schedule. There are no terrible teams, and every team plays a majority of their games outside their own division.

Chief, I recall your saying our favorite teams success in TR's first run was due to the Central being weak. Did I hear wrong?

[Rosterman]

The two areas to spend money this off-season were: Catcher and Bullpen. We got a catcher in trade and, frankly, I wouldn't pay any of the asking free agent salaries, and didn't see the need to trade for LuCroy.

 

Because he didn't move Plouffe, there wasn't that much money in the coffers. Surely enough for a front-line bullpen guy if you wanted to go $5-6 or more million plus an extended contract. The way things look, Ryan is taking a BIG gamble on Abad, and there are hopes that ny number of the five extra guys on the 40-man and the half-dozen guys on the fringe in the minors will fill the 1-2 remaining spots at the beginning of the season, mid-season for changes, or get a shot in the late season and the Twins will be set for 2017.

 

 

We have too many starters. Unless some salary can be shed, we have what we have. Yes, I, too, would rather see one high-priced surething (is there a surething) than three guys eating up money and giving us a 15-12 4.00 season. I can live with one of the three doing that. But I want a stopper, a 20-game winner. Yes, I have hopes that the Twins might have a rotation that will put up close to 200 innings across the board, which would be a relief to the bullpen. That could happen once the main four are in place. We really have three main ones. But hoping Nolasco will surprise us, or Duffey will pitch fullout for 35 starts, and I don't know where Milone will fit in, but between him and Berrios and May and someone else, we have depth.

 

I think what happened was that ALL the Twins transactions happened too early in the Hot Stove season, the 40-man roster filled up pretty fast (although we can argue on a few names, but, hey, we need a couple of names to walk if something does happen in spring training).

 

The core is there. It keeps us "in the hunt" in the Central Division where the Twins MAY BE the weakest team, but not by much. Have to see how the lineup playsout against the East and the West.

 

[bird]

 

Meaning, I assume, that you think it is this year or next year that they should be competitive, or something has gone wrong?

 

 

Meaning that this constant talk about how the goalposts keep moving is an utterly false narrative that gets constant play, especially by you, my friend. Meaning, very very few people who have been regular contributors on TD have first said 2014, and then said 2015,.... and now say 2019..., which is the narrative you are trying to say is playing out. Meaning, from the very beginning, the Twins, and Ryan in particular, have been crystal clear and totally forthright in saying they're not going to take shortcuts and that it would take time. Did the Twins move the goalposts in your narrative? Meaning, we have the infrequent commenter who throws out a number....2017, 2018, 2019, whatever, and you immediately throw out this vague "moving the goalpost" thing, knowing that the shadow gets cast with the Twins in it, amiright?.

 

The team was competitive in 2015, to the surprise of you and me both. For 2016, the range of predictions, after removing outliers, is probably a range of between 76 and 84 wins, wouldn't you say? I don't remember a single regular commenter predicting a division title in 2015, nor have I heard that prediction even once here on TD for 2016. Why would we talk about goalposts given this?

 

Probably the closer thing to the truth about moving the goalposts would be to examine past attitudes towards the Twins farm system and how adamantly some people were saying only a couple years ago that the help that would eventually come from it would be puny compared to what we now are seeing, and to see how those same attitudes have understandably changed. Right? We're not seeing people going there, thank heavens.

 

From my standpoint, "something has not gone wrong". Things have gone almost exactly as I thought they would. As a longtime buddy of mine, you first heard me describing this during their first 90-loss season. No predictions as to the timetable, just a happy witness to a long rebuilding journey with all its fits and starts and warts and mistakes and brilliant moves.

 

[USAFChief]

 

Chief, I recall your saying our favorite teams success in TR's first run was due to the Central being weak. Did I hear wrong?

Don't think I ever said that, but in case I did, "easier" and "far easier" are two different things.

[spinowner]

 

Don't think I ever said that, but in case I did, "easier" and "far easier" are two different things.

How much easier does "easier" have to get before it becomes "far easier"?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Don't think I ever said that, but in case I did, "easier" and "far easier" are two different things.

Honestly, I think "far easier" is a pretty accurate assessment of the NLE.

 

In Interleague play, the AL beat the NL at a clip (.557) that approached the record of the best AL division winner, Toronto (.574). Every American League team but one had 74 or more wins.

 

In the NL, nearly half (seven) of the teams had fewer than 75 wins. Three of those teams were in the NLE with two of those teams under 70 wins. The winning percentage of the entire NLE division (.461) was significantly better than only one American League team, the Oakland A's. (.420) and a virtual tie with the second worst team, the Tigers (.460).

 

The National League East was really bad last season. Really, really bad.

[old nurse]

 

Why are people comparing the Mets to the Twins again? The Mets have a rotation that will feature literally 5 ace or number 2 types upside guys.

 

I don't care how "easy" the Mets schedule was last year, they were clearly a much better team top to bottom then the Twins in 2015.

DeGrom 2.54 ERA 

Harvey 2.71 ERA

Syndergard 3.24 ERA

Matz 2.27 ERA

 

Oh and heading into 2016 they are  adding a  guy in Wheeler who has shown some solid numbers as a 23-24 year old.

 

The Mets rotation is leaps and bounds better than Minnesotas for the next couple years as well. Imagine if Duffey pitches like he did for the Twins for the next couple years, now imagine Berrios lives up to his full potential and we can clone him 4 times over, that would be more or less equal.

 

Also the Mets are returning the following guys:

D'Arnaud C 128 OPS+ last season.

Duda 132 OPS+ last season

Granderson 129 OPS+ last season

Cespedes 157 OPS+ last season

Wright 128 OPS+  last seaon

Conforto 132 OPS+ last season

 

 

 

For the Twins:

Sano had a 144 OPS+ and nobody else had over a 104 OPS+

 

 

I think the Twins compete next year, but the Mets are a significantly better team (they should have won 94+  games, but basically gave a bunch of games a way once they had the division wrapped up) Anyone who thinks the Mets "were/are" only better because of their schedule/division has the most Blue and Red tinted glasses one could find anywhere.

If you have 3 teams in your division filled with AAA type players then won't your numbers look better,? Add in the other three teams in the league that lost 90 games should improve your stats also.  The AL only had Oakland as the 90 loss team.  The Royals did not have near those kinds of numbers hitting or pitchung yet somehow found a way to win

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Collabello had an OPS+ of 142 last year. If that is not good enough for you, what number is? Only 15 home runs. I guess as a half time player that was far too paltry of a number

hes 32 and never played a full season in the bigs, SSS alert? If you spend 12 mil to sign a AAAA first basemen, ouch

[The Wise One]

 

hes 32 and never played a full season in the bigs, SSS alert? If you spend 12 mil to sign a AAAA first basemen, ouch

Never said to spend 12 mil on Collabello. . Only said he was a pretty good hitter, unlike Dave.  Minor league OPS over .900     2015 was what it was.

For 2014 there was this post over a year ago

 

Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press writes that Chris Colabello played with an injury through most of 2014. He has nerve damage in his right thumb.

 

He exchanged text messages with Chris Colabello's agent and quoted a Colabello from a local newspaper article. The injury apparently happened on April 23 against Tampa Bay, but he said he was hitting so well and taking good at bats that he didn't want out of the lineup. Commendable, but we have seen so often what happens when injuries linger.

 

Are his 2015 numbers his peak? Probably, it  is not a bad peak. Proper use, more than likely. Collabello is not an everyday player.  If Park hits like that it is a good signing by the Twins.   Like Collabello in 2013, Park may have a few growing pains.  If he continues to hit like Collabello did in 2013 or injured, then it is a bad signing. If he grows into the hitter that Collabello was, it would be a bargain signing.

[TFelton]

Honestly, I like TR.  Yes, he is conservative, yes I wish he did more, but I still like our prospects, and I struggle to trade them for short-term gain.  Yes, I lament it when he stalls immediate change, while I admire him for patience.

IF we had someone else, I may like 'him' a lot while I can't help but liking keeping these kids, too.

I like our Twins team.  I like being able to pull for them.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Never said to spend 12 mil on Collabello. . Only said he was a pretty good hitter, unlike Dave. Minor league OPS over .900 2015 was what it was.

For 2014 there was this post over a year ago

 

Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press writes that Chris Colabello played with an injury through most of 2014. He has nerve damage in his right thumb.

 

He exchanged text messages with Chris Colabello's agent and quoted a Colabello from a local newspaper article. The injury apparently happened on April 23 against Tampa Bay, but he said he was hitting so well and taking good at bats that he didn't want out of the lineup. Commendable, but we have seen so often what happens when injuries linger.

 

Are his 2015 numbers his peak? Probably, it is not a bad peak. Proper use, more than likely. Collabello is not an everyday player. If Park hits like that it is a good signing by the Twins. Like Collabello in 2013, Park may have a few growing pains. If he continues to hit like Collabello did in 2013 or injured, then it is a bad signing. If he grows into the hitter that Collabello was, it would be a bargain signing.

we don't really know anything about either player. Being unfamiliar with the KBO, I hope it's more competitive than the CanAm league. Are you really going to platoon a guy you just dropped 18 mil on (12 mil plus whatever his annual salary is)? You can't really pick and choose the right situation if you are managing the every day DH, you throw him out there until he proves he can't hack it. I hope Park will be fantastic and all this will be forgotten. The truth is we don't know, and the Cola comp is not encouraging for me.

[DaveW]

 

Never said to spend 12 mil on Collabello. . Only said he was a pretty good hitter, unlike Dave. 

I actually never said that at all, so please don't use fake quotes and arguments to make your point.

[alskntwnsfn]

We're getting off point, which is we desparately needed an improvement in the bullpen (for the second straight year) and TR did virtually nothing.

 

Also, we have plenty of starters, but not many of them are a good fit in the bullpen for a variety of reasons.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Also, we have plenty of starters, but not many of them are a good fit in the bullpen for a variety of reasons.

Unfortunately, the two guys best suited for the bullpen - May and Duffey - are the guys I want to see in the rotation.

 

But Duffey and May are pretty good options for the pen. Both have decent, not spectacular, control and miss a lot of bats. I think people tend to overlook Duffey's 21.9% K rate as a starter last season.

[alskntwnsfn]

The reason I'm not excited to see those two in the pen is because I too believe they'd be 2 of our best 5 starters.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The reason I'm not excited to see those two in the pen is because I too believe they'd be 2 of our best 5 starters.

No arguments from me, I also want to see them in the rotation.

 

But if they're relegated to the bullpen, the pen could turn into a relative strength for the team. They still need a lefty, though, and I'm hoping Rogers takes that role.

 

Rogers/Duffey/May/Jepsen/Perkins can be a decent group of arms and that's not even including the possibility of Meyer getting a shot.

 

It's not the bullpen I want to see but it could work (at the expense of the rotation, IMO).

[spinowner]

 

The reason I'm not excited to see those two in the pen is because I too believe they'd be 2 of our best 5 starters.

 

 

No arguments from me, I also want to see them in the rotation.

 

But if they're relegated to the bullpen, the pen could turn into a relative strength for the team. They still need a lefty, though, and I'm hoping Rogers takes that role.

 

Rogers/Duffey/May/Jepsen/Perkins can be a decent group of arms and that's not even including the possibility of Meyer getting a shot.

 

It's not the bullpen I want to see but it could work (at the expense of the rotation, IMO).

If we see them in the pen I hope it's because the other starters are all performing well, allowing us the flexibility of putting them there.

[DaveW]

 

Unfortunately, the two guys best suited for the bullpen - May and Duffey - are the guys I want to see in the rotation.

 

But Duffey and May are pretty good options for the pen. Both have decent, not spectacular, control and miss a lot of bats. I think people tend to overlook Duffey's 21.9% K rate as a starter last season.

It's dumb to put them both in the pen, would they do well in the pen? Of course, but they also both could be pretty decent #3's. Look at what #3's get on the open market: 4 years at 10-15 million a year.

Now look at what a good RP gets on the open market. 2-3 years at 4-7 million a year. Seems to me that you should keep your best SP in the rotation and go "pay" for some good to great RP help. Instead the Twins have decided to invest pretty much $40 million this year in a handful of mid rotation or back rotation guys (Nolasco, Santana, Hughes and Milone)

 

That 40 million could have been spent on an ace pitcher (literally anyone) and you still would have had plenty of money left over to sign a couple awesome bullpen arms or a Milone type to fill out the back of the rotation. Or, you could have Cueto+Santana+Bastardo

[The Wise One]

 

we don't really know anything about either player. Being unfamiliar with the KBO, I hope it's more competitive than the CanAm league. Are you really going to platoon a guy you just dropped 18 mil on (12 mil plus whatever his annual salary is)? You can't really pick and choose the right situation if you are managing the every day DH, you throw him out there until he proves he can't hack it. I hope Park will be fantastic and all this will be forgotten. The truth is we don't know, and the Cola comp is not encouraging for me.

Did not say that you should platoon Park.  If he hits s well as Collabello did last year it will be a good signing. If he hit like Collabello did injured, it will be a bad signing.     In the end, you will not know for a couple of years how good or bad the signing was.  3 war over 4 years to make it a good signing

[The Wise One]

 

I actually never said that at all, so please don't use fake quotes and arguments to make your point.

post 41

 

Posted 23 February 2016 - 08:44 PM

If Park is only as good as Collabello then that is not a good signing

 

 

It is not unreasonable to think you did not think much of Collabello's  hitting  on the basis of that post. Sconnie jumped in when I reminded you of what Collabello hit while playing for Toronto.

[DaveW]

 

post 41

 

Posted 23 February 2016 - 08:44 PM

If Park is only as good as Collabello then that is not a good signing

 

 

It is not unreasonable to think you did not think much of Collabello's  hitting  on the basis of that post. Sconnie jumped in when I reminded you of what Collabello hit while playing for Toronto.

I think Colabelo is a perfectly acceptable bench bat/platoon guy who can mash lefties, but his hit tool is his only one and his 2015 was very much a by product of his completely unsustainable .411 BABIP

It would be disappointing if Park becomes that, not because a player like that doesn't have value, but because he is the reason why we are shifting our best player to OF (Sano) and that money could have been spent on more pressing needs.

Colabello is a solid 30-400  PA type guy at this stage who will mash lefties and will do ok against RHP IMO for an overally .750-.780 OPS. Park needs to be a 25-35 HR guy with a .820-.880 OPS

[The Wise One]

 

I think Colabelo is a perfectly acceptable bench bat/platoon guy who can mash lefties, but his hit tool is his only one and his 2015 was very much a by product of his completely unsustainable .411 BABIP

It would be disappointing if Park becomes that, not because a player like that doesn't have value, but because he is the reason why we are shifting our best player to OF (Sano) and that money could have been spent on more pressing needs.

Colabello is a solid 30-400  PA type guy at this stage who will mash lefties and will do ok against RHP IMO for an overally .750-.780 OPS. Park needs to be a 25-35 HR guy with a .820-.880 OPS

.880 ops?  Top 15 hitter or he is a failure. .820, top 40 hitter or a failure.  35 HR, top 15 in home runs,  25 top 30. or a failure. Tough crowd for a player earning less than league average salary. Sano was the only Twin with a couple hundred at bats  last year to OPS greater than .760.  If Park produces  20 hr and an OPS over .750, people will be happy ani

[DaveW]

 

.880 ops?  Top 15 hitter or he is a failure. .820, top 40 hitter or a failure.  35 HR, top 15 in home runs,  25 top 30. or a failure. Tough crowd for a player earning less than league average salary. Sano was the only Twin with a couple hundred at bats  last year to OPS greater than .760.  If Park produces  20 hr and an OPS over .750, people will be happy ani

First off, I didn't say he would be a failure if he didn't hit .880, try again. I also didn't say 35 HR, so try again as well.

And yes, if you are a "DH ONLY" type you should certainly be able to hit .820 and a "top 40 hitter" That isn't some ridiculously high bar. Just because the Twins have had terrible teams the last few years doesn't mean that suddenly a .760 OPS DH is a "good thing"

The Mets, who have been referenced before as a "similar" team to the Twins had FIVE guys last year with .820 or better OPS. .820 should be the bare minimum for a DH. Also if you are a DH you should be able to hit 25 HR

[DiscGolfer]

I think this is the year to really see if Ryan can make the necessary moves to build a quality team.  The farm system is more stocked with prospects close to being ready than any other year in recent memory.  Will Ryan be able to make the tough move and bring up some of these guys if and when somebody struggles, I hope so.  I don't fault him for not going out and getting a big name FA bullpen arm considering the depth in the system.  No need to sign another guy to create more of a logjam.  With the progress the Mets, Royals, Astros and Cubs have made with their farm systems the Twins should be able to make similar improvements this year.  The opening day roster will be what it is, but it's the roster in June and after August that will determine if this will be a wining team.  Can't wait for games to start so we can actually see how this all plays out.

[BD57]

 

All I hear out of the anti Ryan crowd is of making trades that have no comparable base in reality and calling for free agent signings of players that do not exist. Excuses versus figments of imagination. Wow, what a choice

 

For the Twins to sign a FA, we'd need a FA who wants to sign w/ the Twins (i know - "duh!!!").

 

I suspect the Twins would have to pay a premium to lure the type of FA which could "fix the problems" - those guys first interest will be in New York, Boston, Chicago, LA . . . huge markets where there are significant off field opportunities too.  Being "just as good" isn't going to be enough.   You guys think the Twins have that kind of money?

 

I suspect the answer is "no."  - not to the extent that they can build a championship roster through free agency.

 

Which means "farm system."{