Big League Stew Offseason Grades For All 30 Teams

[TheLeviathan]

 

I think the grade thing is stupid but the question should be - did the Twins do stuff (either by action or inaction) that will make the 2016 team better?  I, and others, think yes.  I think a lot of potential FA signings were problematic in that they would block someone we might like and, in most cases, not really being worth it.  We see that every year.  Arguing about a guy like Sipp isn't really worth the energy. 

 

I also think the Twins are up against their payroll but they never address that.

 

All of that is fine, then acknowledge what he was grading and realize that a C/D is probably appropriate.  He's not grading "how did the team prepare for 2016" - he's grading "how did they do adding to their team this offseason".  

 

Since you seem to agree they really didn't and are counting on internal improvements you should probably be "meh" about this, not upset about it.  

 

Why do we have to turn everything that isn't glowingly positive about the Twins into some kind of personal offense?  It's just the appropriate grade you get if you don't turn in your homework.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Verducci used Lowe as one of his top examples.

That Verducci article is all over the place, and lacks relevant comparisons. Of course relievers are getting more money than in the past, everybody is (in MLB anyway). That Verducci argument sounds a lot like the posts here that say "$11 million is a lot of money for a guy like Mark Lowe."

Also note that article is from December, before guys like Clippard and Bastardo settled for smaller deals. I am sure there were articles from early recent offseasons bemoaning the crazy SP market based on Ervin Santana's expectation of a $100 mil or even $75 mil contract that never actually materialized.

Are you really suggesting there's no inflation in this years reliever market as compared to previous years?   I can't find an statistical analysis of the question, but my feeling is that relievers saw a higher pay increase relative to other positions.

[Vanimal46]

I'm jumping in a little late here. For those on the side of the fence saying they're happy the Twins didn't jump into the FA market and overpay for a reliever, what makes you believe this isn't the going rate from now on? The market took a little longer to catch up for relievers to start cashing in more, and the Royals + others have shown that relievers in every role are a valuable piece to a pitching staff. $5-6 mill a year could very well be the new norm for average to above average RP. Are the Twins going to sit out every FA period going forward because they refuse to accept this fact?

[PseudoSABR]

 

FA is always inflated.  That's what FA is - you always overpay.  

My contention is the FA reliever market was inflated relative to the market for other players and relative to the previous years' FA reliever markets.  

[jimmer]

 

Yes, you told us all season long (and quite frequently) how the other shoe was going to drop. 

And how was June and July? I'm glad they rebounded.  I enjoy being wrong about the record when it's in our favor. But I don't count on great sequencing to repeat.  I give my opinions not on how I want things to go but by how I think they will go.  I do that with players and the team.  

 

An honest evaluation of this starting lineup (offensively and defensively), rotation and bullpen does not scream playoff team.  And if you think they were really as good as their record said last year (like you keep proclaiming) you should be doing what you said you'd do when they were a contending team, scream bloody murder for not going for it when the window is open.  Now you are saying it's okay they go backward in record this year and that the window is now 2017?  If this team was really talented enough to win as many as they did last year like you keep saying, and you say they've improved for 2016, why would you then say a step backward is acceptable? How many times is that contention window going to move before using that as an argument to not spend holds zero water?

[PseudoSABR]

 

I'm jumping in a little late here. For those on the side of the fence saying they're happy the Twins didn't jump into the FA market and overpay for a reliever, what makes you believe this isn't the going rate from now on? The market took a little longer to catch up for relievers to start cashing in more, and the Royals + others have shown that relievers in every role are a valuable piece to a pitching staff. $5-6 mill a year could very well be the new norm for average to above average RP. Are the Twins going to sit out every FA period going forward because they refuse to accept this fact?

As I said above, I think the Twins anticipated the market to bounce back to previous years prices as the market thinned out, but that didn't seem to happen.  This is might be the going rate going forward, but if it is, we can understand why they reassessed their priorities and choose to rely on building the bullpen from within.  

 

That said, I think having an elite bullpen is a boon, but these are players who are pitching 70 innings a year, and might be underexposed relative to their actual talent.  I tend to think such players make more a difference in the playoffs, and if the Twins are in contention they'll have the resources to acquire such a pitcher if the internal option prove ineffective.

[PseudoSABR]

 

An honest evaluation of this starting lineup (offensively and defensively), rotation and bullpen does not scream playoff team.  

1) No one's saying that the roster 'screams' playoffs. 2) Everyone seems to have a different standard for what an honest evaluation actually is.

[jimmer]

 

1) No one's saying that the roster 'screams' playoffs. 2) Everyone seems to have a different standard for what an honest evaluation actually is.

I am saying I am giving my honest opinions.  I'd love for my honest opinion to be different quite often but that doesn't mean I'm going to say I think things are all sunshine and rainbows when I don't believe that. Before 2010 I had said I thought the team would run away with the division.  It's what I honestly believed.

 

And, again, I will point out that there are some that said this team was really, talent-wise, as good as their record was last year AND they've improved this offseason.  How many games did they miss the playoffs by last year?  When one says those two things, they are saying the team is a playoff contender whether they actually say those exact words or not.

[PseudoSABR]

 

 I will point out that there are some that said this team was really, talent-wise, as good as their record was last year AND they've improved this offseason.  How many games did they miss the playoffs by last year?  When one says those two things, they are saying the team is a playoff contender whether they actually say those exact words or not.

The Twins won 83 games.   Even 83 games doesn't scream playoffs.   

 

I won't speak for anyone else.  For my part, the Twins did play over their heads, but given their youth their talent level was probably within in a couple games of that record.   Also given their youth, even if they made no moves, it's fair to expect the team to improve; if the moves that they did make (Murphy/Park) work out, they very well could be a better team next year.

[jimmer]

 

The Twins won 83 games.   Even 83 games doesn't scream playoffs.   

 

I won't speak for anyone else.  For my part, the Twins did play over their heads, but given their youth their talent level was probably within in a couple games of that record.   Also given their youth, even if they made no moves, it's fair to expect the team to improve; if the moves that they did make (Murphy/Park) work out, they very well could be a better team next year.

They were in the hunt till the end.  Clearly close enough to be considered in contention.  No?  Weren't eliminated til the last series. That means they were clearly a playoff contender based on record.  And some claim the talent warranted their record. So that makes them playoff contenders, in some people's opinions, even before improvement this offseason, no?

 

Anyway, when is the window opening for sure? It was 2014, then 2015, then 2016, now 2017 I guess? It's a serious question I think many of us have as we keep seeing/being told that the window is moving back once again and it's just not time to go for it.  I remember reading the Cubs and Twins were on the same same schedule as it was being proclaimed that Ryan was just as good as Theo and his group at rebuilding and making a contender.

[PseudoSABR]

 

They were in the hunt till the end.  Clearly close enough to be considered in contention.  No?  

Sure.  But that's not screaming playoffs.   Look, it's perfectly reasonable to believe the Twins could be in contention this season.  I don't see anyone saying anything more than that.

[nicksaviking]

You don't think the current World Champs have influenced the perception of value for relievers?

 

Look, baseball is flush with money and it's only getting more flush.  We'll probably say the same thing about reliever deals in four years too.

 

If you choose not to pay to play, so be it.  But there were options.

I would like the Twins to emulate the KC pen. They made their pen from hard throwing young arms. You don't get those on the free agent market, but they have lots of them in the minors.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I would like the Twins to emulate the KC pen. They made their pen from hard throwing young arms. You don't get those on the free agent market, but they have lots of them in the minors.

 

I'm fine with that, or at least I understand your stance.  I'm ok with this team admitting to itself what it is - a young team that needs to mature through opportunity.  

 

I think I'd have still spent some cash on the pen though, either way.  Mostly because I don't trust the Twins to call up the high upside bullpen arms. 

[jimmer]

4 of the top 5 relievers for the Royals in IP last year were/are at least 30 years old (Hererra the exception). 3 of the 5 weren't drafted or originally signed by the Royals.

 

8 of the top 10 relievers for the Royals last year in IP were/are at least 30 (Hererra and Finnegan the exceptions), 6 of them drafted by or originally signed by teams other than Royals. That gives us every RP that threw 20 or more IP in relief for KC..

 

If we got to the amount of pitchers who had 10 or more IP, we add three pitchers all not drafted by the Royals and two were/are 30 or older.

 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Are you really suggesting there's no inflation in this years reliever market as compared to previous years? I can't find an statistical analysis of the question, but my feeling is that relievers saw a higher pay increase relative to other positions.

Yes. Probably not that much. We've been hearing about "too high" reliever deals for awhile now. I don't think this year's crop exceeded anyone's contract expectations, in aggregate. And I doubt any collective pay increase they received notably outstripped other positions -- did you see what Ian Kennedy got? Chris Davis? Ben Zobrist at his age? Mike Pelfrey?

[Otto von Ballpark]

As I said above, I think the Twins anticipated the market to bounce back to previous years prices as the market thinned out, but that didn't seem to happen.

The market pretty much started out this winter with Lowe and the trades of K Rod and Benoit. Then it ended with Bastardo and Clippard. What did you expect those guys to get?

[DaveW]

I find it funny that some people are trying to credit the Twins for "not paying inflated prices on RP" even those though prices are an extremely manageable 5-6 million a year for 2-3 years. Meanwhile last year the Twins had Mike Pelfrey on a similar contract and paid 10+ million to a replacement level RF "veteran"

 

The reality is, there is nothing that prevented the Twins from signing a Clippard type, not money, not better internal options, not bigger holes to fill. It was just a failure all around, Ryan and co had it in there mind that they would not give any legit RP more than one year, and their strategy failed terribly.

[DaveW]

 

 

I'm fine with that, or at least I understand your stance.  I'm ok with this team admitting to itself what it is - a young team that needs to mature through opportunity.  

 

I think I'd have still spent some cash on the pen though, either way.  Mostly because I don't trust the Twins to call up the high upside bullpen arms. 

Yeah, the thing is the Twins are going to carry 7 or 8 bullpen arms most of the years, other than Perkins (who has injury issues), Jepsen, and May (Who should be a starter anyways) none of the other current "ready" options are  anything to write home about, sorry, Fien as a 7th inning type guy is a disaster waiting to happen. So the Twins at that point have 4 spots open in the pen minimum, no reason why you can't sign one real legit RP and then let the youngsters battle over the 3 (or even 4) other spots in the pen.

[nicksaviking]

 

I find it funny that some people are trying to credit the Twins for "not paying inflated prices on RP" even those though prices are an extremely manageable 5-6 million a year for 2-3 years. Meanwhile last year the Twins had Mike Pelfrey on a similar contract and paid 10+ million to a replacement level RF "veteran"

 

The reality is, there is nothing that prevented the Twins from signing a Clippard type, not money, not better internal options, not bigger holes to fill. It was just a failure all around, Ryan and co had it in there mind that they would not give any legit RP more than one year, and their strategy failed terribly.

 

Tyler Clippard is 31, just lost 2.5 points on his K/9 and is almost strictly a FB/CH guy who's velocity is only 91 MPH. I wouldn't want to give him a two year deal, those are the kinds of guys I hope the Twins get rid of.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

Yeah, the thing is the Twins are going to carry 7 or 8 bullpen arms most of the years, other than Perkins (who has injury issues), Jepsen, and May (Who should be a starter anyways) none of the other current "ready" options are  anything to write home about, sorry, Fien as a 7th inning type guy is a disaster waiting to happen. So the Twins at that point have 4 spots open in the pen minimum, no reason why you can't sign one real legit RP and then let the youngsters battle over the 3 (or even 4) other spots in the pen.

 

Who's ready? And how will we ever know? Let Burdi, Chargois, Rodgers, Melotakis, Reed, Meyer fly, there's enough of them that if they bomb they can just keep rotating them until they find the right combination.

 

[USAFChief]

Who's ready? And how will we ever know? Let Burdi, Chargois, Rodgers, Melotakis, Reed, Meyer fly, there's enough of them that if they bomb they can just keep rotating them until they find the right combination.

By then it's 2017, you've wasted another year, and blown through half a dozen 40 man spots to find out you need to sign bullpen help for the coming year.

 

It doesn't work that way, Nick. Players need to be made to force their way onto the 25 man, it shouldn't be a tryout camp.

[Vanimal46]

 

 Ryan and co had it in there mind that they would not give any legit RP more than one year.

I'm glad you brought up this point. Because this IMO is what it all boils down to with this bullpen. The reason why there's frustration on both sides of the fence. This philosophy was discussed at length on TD this offseason, and I'm not sure if TR has publicly mentioned this philosophy as well. But I'm of the belief this is why the Twins sat out of the RP market this off-season. 

Some people buy in on the philosophy and think it's best to build within the organization. Some people do not buy in and think it's a stubborn move to not consider a 2-3 year contract for a RP. Regardless, the people that bought in to this philosophy won, and hopefully they are right. Otherwise the team's going to be in the same position they were in last year, desperate to trade for anyone to help in the pen.   

[Winston Smith]

I don't agree with the idea that Jim Pohlad keeping the money in his pocket is somehow better than Terry attempting (right or wrong) to improve the team.

[alarp33]

 

I'm glad you brought up this point. Because this IMO is what it all boils down to with this bullpen. The reason why there's frustration on both sides of the fence. This philosophy was discussed at length on TD this offseason, and I'm not sure if TR has publicly mentioned this philosophy as well. But I'm of the belief this is why the Twins sat out of the RP market this off-season. 

Some people buy in on the philosophy and think it's best to build within the organization. Some people do not buy in and think it's a stubborn move to not consider a 2-3 year contract for a RP. Regardless, the people that bought in to this philosophy won, and hopefully they are right. Otherwise the team's going to be in the same position they were in last year, desperate to trade for anyone to help in the pen.   

 

The thing that is crazy to me about Ryan's refusal to offer 2 year deals, is that he has absolutely no issue burning money on tendering contracts to Arb guys who could very easily be non tendered.  

 

Duensing, Fien, Nunez, etc. 

 

Add up Duensing + Stauffer's salaries last year, Fien and Nunez's this year, and you've got 2yr/$10mill

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The thing that is crazy to me about Ryan's refusal to offer 2 year deals, is that he has absolutely no issue burning money on tendering contracts to Arb guys who could very easily be non tendered.  

 

Duensing, Fien, Nunez, etc. 

 

Add up Duensing + Stauffer's salaries last year, Fien and Nunez's this year, and you've got 2yr/$10mill

I have no problem with some of those deals (like Fien and Nunez), but this helps put the FA reliever salaries in context.  Duensing got $2.7 mil last year coming off a pretty weak performance (3.3 BB/9, 5.5 K/9 in 2014).  We gave up prospects for the right to sign Jepsen at 1 year, $5.3 mil.

 

There is no way that a 2 year, ~$12 mil deal for a reliever coming off the season/postseason of Lowe, or the track record of Clippard (at least 1.2 bWAR in 6 of the last 7 seasons), is "inflated" or evidence of the market "blowing up".  That's fair market value, and low in absolute terms compared to other positions, so it's an easy low risk way for teams with suspect bullpens to potentially improve quickly.  Would have thought that group included the Twins with the way the 2015 season unfolded and our public statements about the bullpen being a priority, but here we are.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Come on, you have no idea whether the Twins explored contracts with any of those pitchers.   This notion that the Twins are twiddling their thumbs all offseason needs to be put to bed.  The Twins are typically tight-lipped about this sort of stuff and when there is a report about the Twins showing interest in a player, the same collection of posters say "well the Twins are reportedly interested in everybody, but we know nothing will happen." 

 

is their job to try to improve the team, but fail, or to improve the team?

 

I don't care if they tried to sign guys, I care if they added talent to the roster. Butera tried to hit, doesn't make him good at his job.....

[Mike Sixel]

 

By then it's 2017, you've wasted another year, and blown through half a dozen 40 man spots to find out you need to sign bullpen help for the coming year.

It doesn't work that way, Nick. Players need to be made to force their way onto the 25 man, it shouldn't be a tryout camp.

 

I'm not sure I totally agree with this, but I can understand it.

[Riverbrian]

i really wanted the Twins to pay the price for bullpen arms this year and am disappointed that they didn't.

 

I had no interest in the Abad's of the world.

 

I wanted the Twins to go after frontline relievers. I wanted them to think big and pay the price for big and quit messing around with average.

 

When I see the prices paid for the arms that were moved... I'm under the impression that the Twins could have paid those prices easy.

 

For example... The Twins could have topped what the Yankees paid for Chapman. If Revere got Storen... Could Hicks get Storen? I don't know. Could the Twins have matched what the Padres paid for Pomeranz? Could we have pried away Boxberger?

 

You identified bullpen as a need and I agreed with you and you got Abad? This alone is worth a "D" grade for the offseason.

 

Take the risk... Go for it... You almost made the playoffs last year.

[TheLeviathan]

By then it's 2017, you've wasted another year, and blown through half a dozen 40 man spots to find out you need to sign bullpen help for the coming year.

It doesn't work that way, Nick. Players need to be made to force their way onto the 25 man, it shouldn't be a tryout camp.

They do need opportunity though and AAA isn't really going to force anyone's hand.

 

But this team has bullpen spots to offer both to some proven strikeout help and to opportunity to young hard throwers.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I tend to think such players make more a difference in the playoffs, and if the Twins are in contention they'll have the resources to acquire such a pitcher if the internal option prove ineffective.

Do you remember how tough it was to acquire a good reliever at the deadline last year?  We barely got Jepsen under the wire.  It took a SP prospect not unlike Gonsalves/Stewart to rent Clippard for two months, a guy that some posters here want to avoid at all costs.  It took 3 prospects to get two months of Mark Lowe.

 

With the added wild cards, more teams are in contention at that point of the season, so it's very difficult to pry good relievers away (and you are competing against more teams for those few relievers on the block).  Far more good relievers were moved this winter (Storen, McGee, Benoit, K Rod, Chapman, Giles, Justin Wilson, Carson Smith).

 

2/12 is a pretty reasonable insurance policy to help avoid being at the mercy of the July trade market, not to mention you'd get the benefit of having that pitcher on opening day.

EDIT TO ADD: It could also help the Twins the other way.  If we are out of contention, we've got another asset to potentially move in July too (and an easy path to clear for another prospect if we so desire).